UK to ban sale of new petrol and diesel cars from 2030: FT

[OX1]

On 11/25/2020 at 7:28 PM, Gurgeh said:

It doesn't, if you keep reading what I wrote:

"And finally, this transition working will depend fundamentally on robust use of hydraulic fracturing technology for natural gas production. Without fracking our natural gas supply will plummet and its price will skyrocket. Sadly, those most pushing for increased use of renewable energy are also those pushing for an end to fracking, severely restricting the construction of new natural gas power plants, and generally trying to outlaw any new natural gas hookups, as recently passed in San Francisco."

 

Well, why suggest something that is not going to happen. In fact, it is going to be curtailed, or possibly even banned outright.  

[FordBuyer]

On 11/25/2020 at 6:14 PM, OX1 said:

 

How's that work if you kill fracking?? 

No one is killing fracking.....only trying to regulate it better. The NIMBY crowd is strong and effective. 

[paintguy]

American energy production totals about 100 Quad or 100 quadrillion BTU of energy.  US electrical generation is  about 14 Quad. 63% of the electrical generation is from fossil fuel. So to get to "carbon free" we only have to replace or eliminate 95 Quad of energy use. In many areas there are electrical brownouts during peak demand. Granted, efficiencies can and will be gained. I have a hard time figuring the square miles of solar panels and number of windmills required to generate required power. Not to mention the thousands of miles of high tension wires to transfer the power. After all the sun doesn't shine and the wind doesn't always blow when and where needed. So the argument that "if we all drove electric cars our problems would be over" is overstated.

[Gurgeh]

3 hours ago, FordBuyer said:

No one is killing fracking.....only trying to regulate it better. The NIMBY crowd is strong and effective. 

 

Really don't want this to devolve into a political discussion, but no one with clout in the U.S. political system is advocating killing fracking? Now, they probably won't succeed in their efforts -- which is what I assume you are saying -- but about half of the candidates of one of the major U.S. parties were for flat out ending it. Not the one who won -- but certainly his #2 -- at least not most of the time (he has on occasion spoken out against the technology, but most of the time he just calls for more regulation).

[jpd80]

There’s a long way between saying that you’re going to do stuff and actually doing it, I’m sure the left wants to end fracking but that’s probably not a reality over at least the next two terms.

[jpd80]

What will be interesting is what can be accomplished when both sides stop all the rhetoric and get down to hammering out workable plans, how to move the needle in a positive way. 

[akirby]

40 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

What will be interesting is what can be accomplished when both sides stop all the rhetoric and get down to hammering out workable plans, how to move the needle in a positive way. 

 

You mean get together like adults and figure out a compromise that works for both parties and protects both the environment and our energy supply at the same time?

 

That's simply not possible with the toddlers we have in Congress these days.   All they want to do is beat up the other party.

[FordBuyer]

13 minutes ago, akirby said:

 

You mean get together like adults and figure out a compromise that works for both parties and protects both the environment and our energy supply at the same time?

 

That's simply not possible with the toddlers we have in Congress these days.   All they want to do is beat up the other party.

I totally agree. We are not represented by adults, only by immature kindergarteners that don't know how to get along. And it's getting worse, not better. Now we have sore winners and sore losers. We teach youth sport teams to shake hands after winning or losing. Not in politics now. A complete and utter shit show. 

[akirby]

47 minutes ago, FordBuyer said:

I totally agree. We are not represented by adults, only by immature kindergarteners that don't know how to get along. And it's getting worse, not better. Now we have sore winners and sore losers. We teach youth sport teams to shake hands after winning or losing. Not in politics now. A complete and utter shit show. 

And that’s exactly why we need term limits.

[rperez817]

Japan is now considering banning the sale of new gasoline-engine only cars by the mid 2030s. Unlike the bans in the U.S., Canada, and Europe, Japan's proposal does permit hybrids to be sold. https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-japan-autos-gasoline/japan-may-ban-sale-of-new-gasoline-powered-vehicles-in-mid-2030s-media-idUKKBN28C3I3

[AGR]

Well naturally, since they subsidized the development of hybrids and like everyone else incentivized sales.

[OX1]

On 11/30/2020 at 10:26 AM, FordBuyer said:

No one is killing fracking.....only trying to regulate it better. The NIMBY crowd is strong and effective. 

"regulate" it better could easily be stifle it, especially if dems get senate. But keep ignoring that fact.  

[ice-capades]

Local municipalities, state government agencies and even some universities started buying hybrid vehicles years ago in good part as a reaction to the "Politically Correct" culture we're living in. Now we're starting to see a steady increase in government mandates regarding electrification. Regardless of one's opinions, this trend is going to increase and accelerate as countries push the envelope and timetable for the same politically correct benefits they hope to achieve with bragging rights for being environmentally conscious, etc. And as a direct reaction, manufacturers are starting to accelerate their own plans for quicker introduction of more BEV vehicles. 

 

What I've always found amusing though is that plug-in hybrids are counted and treated the same as BEV's. The plug-in hybrids aren't any different than regular hybrids other than the plug-in charging capability yet the manufacturers have had the benefits of them being treated the same as BEV's. And regardless of BEV range, charging times or availability of public charging stations, the increased demands on the electricity infrastructure must be addressed by increasing the capacity necessary to meet future demand.

 

And there will be consequences when at some point carbon credits are no longer able to be bought and sold.  

 

Further adventures to follow!

Edited December 4, 2020 by ice-capades

[Harley Lover]

1 hour ago, ice-capades said:

What I've always found amusing though is that plug-in hybrids are counted and treated the same as BEV's. The plug-in hybrids aren't any different than regular hybrids other than the plug-in charging capability yet the manufacturers have had the benefits of them being treated the same as BEV's.

 

Plug ins are fundamentally different from regular hybrids in that they can be driven in EV mode only with no gas usage up to whatever their battery range is for EV only operation. I can drive my C-Max Energi for weeks on end without having to use the gas engine (although I do choose to use it for other reasons). A 'regular' hybrid cannot do that.

[ice-capades]

1 hour ago, Harley Lover said:

 

Plug ins are fundamentally different from regular hybrids in that they can be driven in EV mode only with no gas usage up to whatever their battery range is for EV only operation. I can drive my C-Max Energi for weeks on end without having to use the gas engine (although I do choose to use it for other reasons). A 'regular' hybrid cannot do that.

 

True but not what I consider a major difference considering the limited EV only range, especially when you factor in the cost difference between the regular hybrid and a plug-in. 

[akirby]

2 hours ago, Harley Lover said:

 I can drive my C-Max Energi for weeks on end without having to use the gas engine

 

That's what I said about PHEVs but some here said that was not true.

[rperez817]

1 hour ago, ice-capades said:

 

True but not what I consider a major difference considering the limited EV only range, especially when you factor in the cost difference between the regular hybrid and a plug-in. 

 

Yes sir ice-capades. Studies both in the U.S. and Europe indicate that real world usage patterns of PHEV are much closer to that of a regular hybrid vehicle than to a BEV. 

 

PHEV is a dead-end, it only exists for regulatory compliance. Governments are already making changes to policies that treat PHEV the same as BEV.

[akirby]

55 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

PHEV is a dead-end, it only exists for regulatory compliance. Governments are already making changes to policies that treat PHEV the same as BEV.

 

Only in Europe because of stupid laws that force them to run in charge sustaining mode all the time.

[Harley Lover]

4 hours ago, ice-capades said:

 

True but not what I consider a major difference considering the limited EV only range, especially when you factor in the cost difference between the regular hybrid and a plug-in. 

 The EV range is only limited by what the manufacturer decides to place in the vehicle in terms of HV battery capacity. 

[Harley Lover]

3 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

Yes sir ice-capades. Studies both in the U.S. and Europe indicate that real world usage patterns of PHEV are much closer to that of a regular hybrid vehicle than to a BEV. 

 

PHEV is a dead-end, it only exists for regulatory compliance. Governments are already making changes to policies that treat PHEV the same as BEV.

 

Which only proves there's no accounting for stupid. I've driven the Energi for 7+ years, and while I wish Ford had given it a larger HV battery, I can make it work just fine as an EV. Your phrase "Governments are already making changes to policies" is the key - the manufacturers gave the plug ins the range they gave them based on what government regulations provided for/covered/allowed to be defined as an EV. There's nothing stopping manufacturers from giving plug ins larger HV batteries, particularly if governments "make policy changes". 

[jpd80]

4 hours ago, akirby said:

 

Only in Europe because of stupid laws that force them to run in charge sustaining mode all the time.

It’s upside down to the way PHEVs were designed to operate, they have to run like a regular hybrid until they reach cities that are ZEV zones. You may as well buy a low cost “100 mile BEV” and just charge at home.
 

I wonder if this is the way California and the aligned states will eventually go. If you enter a ZEV zone it’s a big fine if you’re not in electric mode.

Edited December 4, 2020 by jpd80

[akirby]

7 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

It’s upside down to the way PHEVs were designed to operate, they have to run like a regular hybrid until they reach cities that are ZEV zones. You may as well buy a low cost “100 mile BEV” and just charge at home.
 

I wonder if this is the way California and the aligned states will eventually go. If you enter a ZEV zone it’s a big fine if you’re not in electric mode.

It’s worse than a hybrid - the ice has to charge or keep the batteries topped off while driving.  Of course a BEV will do better in that circumstance.

 

PHEVs are better when you just do short trips most days and don’t have silly ZEV zones.

[jpd80]

14 minutes ago, akirby said:

It’s worse than a hybrid - the ice has to charge or keep the batteries topped off while driving.  Of course a BEV will do better in that circumstance.

 

PHEVs are better when you just do short trips most days and don’t have silly ZEV zones.

That’s true, the loonies that control politics and law in Europe don’t think the way we do, they focus on zones instead of the whole journey.

[paintguy]

Europe still struggling with HC, NOx and CO emissions as well as CO2. CO2 reduction in "zones" doesn't help. With lower average commuting distances in Europe, PHEV should work. If you are a ride share driver, would need a BEV. 

 

Also overly tight CO2 regulation that result in offshoring manufacturing will not help. China has looser rules, and will not even play by those rules. Chinese still building coal fired electric generation. In the west, building or even refurbing coal fired generation would have someone question your sanity.

[bzcat]

The other subtext that a lot of you are missing is the proposed (or enacted) bans are generally supported either overly or quietly by car companies. The politics of banning ICE only sales is a lagging indicator... basically the pols are taking cues from the car companies in their home turf and the car companies are saying "we got this". They want bans to be put in place now to prevent the "freeloader" problem... someone like FCA that didn't put in the investment or hard work to convert to making and selling EVs getting a lifeline by keep selling ICE vehicles. 

Edited December 5, 2020 by bzcat