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4 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

 

Also just looking at the timeline of this-Europe didn't have (or at least have a centralized plan due to the creation of the EU) til 1992. The US started in 1973. The EU wants to ban ICE cars in 10 years or so in some countries...thats pretty asine to assume that a change can happen that quickly. 

 

But using fossil fuels suddenly its not a problem with generating electricity? 

 

All your doing is stove piping the problem..and if the electrical grid isn't invested to support all these changes, their will be even bigger problems. Just take a look at what happens in California with their electrical grid.

I'm not a fan of centralizing things without an alternative course of action.

 

The real issue is that expecting things to happen without laying out a plan to actually make it happen, instead handing out edicts that can't be support without  changes in other places.

 

All you hear about is oh we are banning ICE powered vehicles, but they never state that X amount of funds are being spend on charging stations or new green power generation.
 

I believe some countries are talking about banning the sale of NEW ICE vehicles by 2030 or so. So if that becomes fact, look for a black market where ICE vehicles are smuggled in and police have to create special departments to combat ICE vehicle smugglers. And of course used ICE will become more popular than ever. Fight the government, rebel, and buy ICE.

 

Yes, there will be more vehicles with batteries on the road in the coming years, but ICE ain't going away anytime soon. Maybe never completely. In fact, I would bet on it. Battery vehicles will make inroads, but never fully replace ICE.

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1 hour ago, FordBuyer said:

I believe some countries are talking about banning the sale of NEW ICE vehicles by 2030 or so. So if that becomes fact, look for a black market where ICE vehicles are smuggled in and police have to create special departments to combat ICE vehicle smugglers. And of course used ICE will become more popular than ever. Fight the government, rebel, and buy ICE.

 

Hey you just came up with the script for the next Fast And Furious movie! LOL

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3 hours ago, FordBuyer said:

I believe some countries are talking about banning the sale of NEW ICE vehicles by 2030 or so. So if that becomes fact, look for a black market where ICE vehicles are smuggled in and police have to create special departments to combat ICE vehicle smugglers. And of course used ICE will become more popular than ever. Fight the government, rebel, and buy ICE.

 

Yes, there will be more vehicles with batteries on the road in the coming years, but ICE ain't going away anytime soon. Maybe never completely. In fact, I would bet on it. Battery vehicles will make inroads, but never fully replace ICE.

 

Of course ICE vehicles will never completely go away. That's not saying much at all... Classic cars will always be enjoyed by some. And plenty of developing countries will resist electrification for as long as they can.

 

But banning sales of new ICE only vehicles is largely symbolic because the regulatory framework will pretty much ensure that anyway. I think ICE-only vehicles will account for less than 20% of sale in places like Europe, US or Japan by 2030. Maybe up to 25~30% of the market will still be PHEV but 50~60% will be fully EV. In the US, the regulatory pathway forward has been very clear for the last 12 years. And the GM/Toyota-lead suicide pact with Trump Admin didn't change this outlook at all.

 

Only vehicles with very large footprints (i.e. fullsize pickup trucks and large SUVs) will be able to keep their ICE engines past 2025. Your garden variety family CUVs, sports coupes, delivery vans, compact trucks etc will all have to achieve over 60 MPG on average (using the old pre-2008 EPA MPG standard) in order to offset the pickup trucks to reach CAFE of 54.5 MPG. The agreement between CARB and the courageous 4 (Ford, Honda, BMW, VW) ratcheted that number down to 51 MPG by 2026 - but the path is still the same.... it requires a 3.7% year over year increase in CAFE between model year 2022 and model year 2026.

 

The only way to get there is to make sure majority of new vehicle sales are electric. How does this look like in real life? MACH E has 90 MPGe which is roughly 100 MPG in the pre-2008 EPA standards used by CAFE vs. Ford Edge FWD at 24 MPG (roughly 27 MPG in pre-2008). This is why Ford is not making another ICE Edge and will go straight to an EV replacement in 2024. Ford maybe able to get 35 MPG (under old standard) out of a new ICE Edge but it should be able to beat MACH E's 90 MPGe in a few years (so 100+ MPG for CAFE purpose). This is what the regulatory reality car companies live in. All of them with a few exception have already made the investments necessary to get there. It's a done deal. The new vehicle market in the US is going to look drastically different by 2030 and no serious person in the auto industry disputes this. 

 

This is my prediction of what Europe and CARB state sales mix will look like:

2020: 10% Plug-in, 90% ICE only

2025: 33% Plug-in, 67% ICE only

2030: 80% Plug-in, 20% ICE only

Edited by bzcat
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8 hours ago, silvrsvt said:


He thinks if he keeps repeating it will be true.

 

What I see happening in the next 10 years is that your going to see something around a 30-40-20 split in the market

 

20% ICE only

40% Hybrid/PHEV

30% BEV

 

IMO My next vehicle after my Bronco (if I don't get a weekend car aka new Mustang) will be a BEV, but I can support charging at home and my commute to work is short, so I'd have to charge it like once a week or so. 

The infrastructure to support BEVs needs to be built out more (I live in a county that is in the 1.2% wealthiest counties in the US) and I think there might be a grand total of two Tesla super charging stations within 15-20 miles of my house. Even looking at Electrify America (VW charging stations) there really isn't much in the area to support BEVs in the new few years. 

I figure that in 10 years they'll have pretty much a 300 mile range down pat in any weather conditions and charging stations (if I take a road trip) will be built out enough that a full recharge will only take as long as it takes to get lunch at Panera or something. 

 

You are pretty much right on the spot. Charging networks will have to grow exponentially (and it will... it is a huge topic in all commercial real estate development right now... you don't build anything new without chargers, period).

 

20% ICE only seems about right to be me as well (I somehow skipped over your post from page 1 when I was typing my previous post).

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1 hour ago, bzcat said:

 

You are pretty much right on the spot. Charging networks will have to grow exponentially (and it will... it is a huge topic in all commercial real estate development right now... you don't build anything new without chargers, period).

 

20% ICE only seems about right to be me as well (I somehow skipped over your post from page 1 when I was typing my previous post).

If you watched the latest FLT video, the new F-150 with the onboard power generator will power up your BEV in about 3 hours. It will also power up 23 fridges all at once. So who needs Charger stations.

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47 minutes ago, FordBuyer said:

If you watched the latest FLT video, the new F-150 with the onboard power generator will power up your BEV in about 3 hours. It will also power up 23 fridges all at once. So who needs Charger stations.

 

Can you give me the time stamp on that 3-hour BEV claim?  7.2kw is a base level-2 charge rate, the MME with the mobile charger cord is looking at about 21 miles/hour at the full 7200 watt output.

 

HRG

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10 hours ago, silvrsvt said:


He thinks if he keeps repeating it will be true.

 

What I see happening in the next 10 years is that your going to see something around a 30-40-20 split in the market

 

20% ICE only

40% Hybrid/PHEV

30% BEV


This I fully agree with.  Hybrids are the sweet spot because you get wonderful gas mileage without all the headaches and limitations of an EV. 

 

10 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

The damage done by fossil fuels, environmental and otherwise, is extensive. Government action including bans on the sale of ICE powered motor vehicles is inevitable.


Lol how can you be this ignorant?  You think mining for batteries is like a deep tissue massage for the planet?  Mining for batteries is wildly destructive and damaging.  

 

1 hour ago, FordBuyer said:

If you watched the latest FLT video, the new F-150 with the onboard power generator will power up your BEV in about 3 hours. It will also power up 23 fridges all at once. So who needs Charger stations.


Ha awesome.  Nothing says “I’m green” like charging your EV with your very expensive gasoline powered generator.  

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50 minutes ago, HotRunrGuy said:

 

Can you give me the time stamp on that 3-hour BEV claim?  7.2kw is a base level-2 charge rate, the MME with the mobile charger cord is looking at about 21 miles/hour at the full 7200 watt output.

 

HRG

They weren’t charging an MME.  They were charging a BMW i3.  It only had about a 65 mile range.  Took about 3 hours to charge it. 

Edited by CurtisH
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4 hours ago, FordBuyer said:

Yep, there is no free lunch. Even if vehicles could run on water, there would probably be a downside. 

 

23 minutes ago, FR739 said:

Rperez817 calls that progress ?

 

Too bad it is incorrect...I'll back up @rperez817 here...don't believe every meme you see...

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2019/aug/23/viral-image/no-s-not-van-towing-diesel-generator-charge-electr/

 

No different than any other type of roadside service...anyone that has run out of gas knows the relief of a service truck showing up with a gas can.

 

Edited by twintornados
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17 hours ago, FR739 said:

Mining for batteries is wildly destructive and damaging.  

 

Environmental impact from the use of fossil fuels in ICE powered motor vehicles is much more destructive and damaging than mining for raw materials used in batteries.

Edited by rperez817
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3 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

Environmental impact from the use of fossil fuels in ICE powered motor vehicles is much more destructive and damaging than mining for raw materials used in batteries.

If you live on the gulf or near a refinery, you are probably correct. Oil from Canada is especially nasty that comes through Enbridge pipelines. Nothing like the sweet crude from the Saudis. 

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4 hours ago, twintornados said:

 

 

Too bad it is incorrect...I'll back up @rperez817 here...don't believe every meme you see...

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2019/aug/23/viral-image/no-s-not-van-towing-diesel-generator-charge-electr/

 

No different than any other type of roadside service...anyone that has run out of gas knows the relief of a service truck showing up with a gas can.

 


Except it's stupid when literally the entire argument for governments worldwide to force electric cars upon us is how it's supposed to be more environmentally friendly. 

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4 hours ago, twintornados said:

 

 

Too bad it is incorrect...I'll back up @rperez817 here...don't believe every meme you see...

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2019/aug/23/viral-image/no-s-not-van-towing-diesel-generator-charge-electr/

 

No different than any other type of roadside service...anyone that has run out of gas knows the relief of a service truck showing up with a gas can.

 


Wow ok time to take a step back and chill.  It was a joke.  It’s ok to laugh and have some fun. 

 

4 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

Environmental impact from the use of fossil fuels in ICE powered motor vehicles is much more destructive and damaging than mining for raw materials used in batteries.


Yes because lithium grows on trees.  Even the absolutely psychotic Salon.com had an article in 2019 about how incredibly bad lithium mining is for the planet.  Far more destructive than ICE vehicles.  Heck modern diesels are so clean in a lot of places the air going in is dirtier than the substances coming out the exhaust. 

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On the future bans, do you ever notice politicians say the darndest things to get re-elected? 2030 is roughly 9 years away.  It makes a great sound bite and putting these laws on the books is great but they're just trying to keep the gravy train going. It makes you look like you really care about the environment. However, if you don't have a feasible plan for everyone it's just a bunch of BS. You want to ban ICE vehicles in 9 years? Try it Mr. Politician, I dare you. If I have learned anything this year, when you start taking away modern conveniences and messing with peoples livelihood, the CIVIL in civilization starts to disappear. You want a mutiny?  Try implementing that without good plan, you will get it.

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55 minutes ago, jcartwright99 said:

On the future bans, do you ever notice politicians say the darndest things to get re-elected? 2030 is roughly 9 years away.  It makes a great sound bite and putting these laws on the books is great but they're just trying to keep the gravy train going. It makes you look like you really care about the environment. However, if you don't have a feasible plan for everyone it's just a bunch of BS. You want to ban ICE vehicles in 9 years? Try it Mr. Politician, I dare you. If I have learned anything this year, when you start taking away modern conveniences and messing with peoples livelihood, the CIVIL in civilization starts to disappear. You want a mutiny?  Try implementing that without good plan, you will get it.


Ive heard of Senators voting for a bill that they really don’t support but is supported by their constituents because they know the house won’t pass it or vice versa.  We need term limits so Congress can focus on doing the right thing instead of getting themselves re-elected.

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Here's the thing about lithium mining vs petroleum based fuel production....lithium can be recycled whereas once fuel from petroleum products in burned, it's gone. Any time you can take a pollutant out of the "transportation equation", it is a good thing.

Example;

Fossil fuel production = pollutants released in the air from the drilling of raw materials, to the refining process to the power generation to the final product of placing a fuel nozzle into the tank of a vehicle, the vehicle moves and that continues the cycle of producing a pollutant into our atmosphere.

 

Electric fuel production = pollutants released in to air from mining the raw materials for battery construction, to the refining process to power generation but that is where it stops, when you place the electrical "nozzle" into the receptacle of the vehicle, the vehicle moves without putting more pollutants into the atmosphere.

 

As technology advances, there will be a slow movement toward cleaner electric fuel production whereas with petroleum fuel production it will never get any cleaner.

 

We are on the precipice of change and market forces will decide that change, not legislation. I am not saying it will happen overnight, but it will happen.

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