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Microchip Shortage Downtime


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36 minutes ago, FordBuyer said:

It seems to be cascading down so that eventually every p)ant will be affected. Since F-Series is the profit king, it has to be getting bad. Dearborn down to one shift when dealers are screaming for them is not good. They said today problem will not be solved until summer. 

We’ve only built 187 units for the fuckin year at OAC. Supposed to be 400 prototypes they built 187. We got a robocall today to return on February the 8th with an 8 hr schedule both shifts. I can understand Dearborn and Chicago getting sourced most of the microchips first. I was told we’re 8th on the priority list for production and it shows lol. We basically haven’t built one saleable unit of the 21 Edge Nautius yet!  I’ve barely lifted a straw since Dec 20th. Only days we’ve been in were Jan 25 and 26 for short shifts. It’s obvious that the more profitable vehicles are higher priority. Maybe that’s why we’re finally getting some work so they can at least have some 21 edge Nautilus available.

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I'm not sure I understand the full issue here. I get the shortage of the semiconductor chips causing reduction in shifts or even closing down the plants. But who exactly makes the chips and where? It sounds as if only one company makes it and that it's in a location where covid impact is high. Aren't there multiple companies spread out globally making the chips that carmakers can rely on? They knew since late last year that this day was coming so why didn't automakers reach out to other chip makers? Other chip makers could have stepped up to the challenge and start making them for the automakers. Or is it really that complicated that can't be explained in layman's terms? Now it's said that the problem may continue through summer? Is it really that complicated to get other chip makers in areas not impacted by covid to start producing them for the automakers?

Edited to add: disregard this as it's been clarified by few users here. I now have further understanding of the issues.

Edited by pffan1990
Disregard my post now it's clarified.
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13 minutes ago, pffan1990 said:

I'm not sure I understand the full issue here. I get the shortage of the semiconductor chips causing reduction in shifts or even closing down the plants. But who exactly makes the chips and where? It sounds as if only one company makes it and that it's in a location where covid impact is high. Aren't there multiple companies spread out globally making the chips that carmakers can rely on? They knew since late last year that this day was coming so why didn't automakers reach out to other chip makers? Other chip makers could have stepped up to the challenge and start making them for the automakers. Or is it really that complicated that can't be explained in layman's terms? Now it's said that the problem may continue through summer? Is it really that complicated to get other chip makers in areas not impacted by covid to start producing them for the automakers?

The problem is they said auto producers culled orders in anticipation of a downturn. Also, the companies shifted some of their production of microchips to consumer electronics. 

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4 minutes ago, Oacjay98 said:

The problem is they said auto producers culled orders in anticipation of a downturn. Also, the companies shifted some of their production of microchips to consumer electronics. 

 

Exactly and they can't switch back over that quickly...

 

One article said the F-150 shift cut will only last a few weeks then go back to normal. 

 

Production for car related processors should be back to normal levels by the summer or the next 90-120 days. 

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2 minutes ago, Oacjay98 said:

The problem is they said auto producers culled orders in anticipation of a downturn. Also, the companies shifted some of their production of microchips to consumer electronics. 

I get that but I was wondering if there was only one chip maker company or others. It appears as if only one company makes the chips for all the automakers and only as if it's in one plant. Surely there's other companies that can step up to the plate to build the chips. But that would still take time though to do all this.

 

3 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

Exactly and they can't switch back over that quickly...

 

One article said the F-150 shift cut will only last a few weeks then go back to normal. 

 

Production for car related processors should be back to normal levels by the summer or the next 90-120 days. 

Let's hope that all goes well with resuming production of the chips for all automakers. There's still lots of new vehicles sitting on dealer lots that can tide them over for the time being.

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6 minutes ago, pffan1990 said:

I get that but I was wondering if there was only one chip maker company or others. It appears as if only one company makes the chips for all the automakers and only as if it's in one plant. Surely there's other companies that can step up to the plate to build the chips. But that would still take time though to do all this.

 

There are a couple foundries (aka places that make CPU/etc), but they like all good business, they are going to keep themselves busy with whatever they need to make to keep themselves busy...there is very little extra capacity I'm assuming for them to make more CPUs etc.

 

Just as an example, I work on a system that needs a special add in card for for a PC...the company told us a 16 week long leadtime to get it. 

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21 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

Exactly and they can't switch back over that quickly...

 

One article said the F-150 shift cut will only last a few weeks then go back to normal. 

 

Production for car related processors should be back to normal levels by the summer or the next 90-120 days. 

Maybe they cut some F-150 production so we could actually build some units at OAC as we haven’t built 1 for the dealer lot yet. The F-150 and their trucks are too critical to FOMOCO’s bottom line to be down for any extended period of time as we all know.

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19 minutes ago, pffan1990 said:

I get that but I was wondering if there was only one chip maker company or others. It appears as if only one company makes the chips for all the automakers and only as if it's in one plant. Surely there's other companies that can step up to the plate to build the chips. But that would still take time though to do all this.

 

Let's hope that all goes well with resuming production of the chips for all automakers. There's still lots of new vehicles sitting on dealer lots that can tide them over for the time being.

Yes there’s lot of new vehicles on the lot but there is also factory specific orders that need to be fulfilled as well! There’s major chip makers out there but they switched over to other items now we’re in a major crunch.

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35 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

There are a couple foundries (aka places that make CPU/etc), but they like all good business, they are going to keep themselves busy with whatever they need to make to keep themselves busy...there is very little extra capacity I'm assuming for them to make more CPUs etc.

 

Just as an example, I work on a system that needs a special add in card for for a PC...the company told us a 16 week long leadtime to get it. 

 

28 minutes ago, Oacjay98 said:

Yes there’s lot of new vehicles on the lot but there is also factory specific orders that need to be fulfilled as well! There’s major chip makers out there but they switched over to other items now we’re in a major crunch.

Gotcha both. Makes more sense now. Yes, the ones that placed factory orders will have to wait a long time. Or at least have an option to pick out the ones on dealer lots.

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Question, what is stopping ford from building their own chip factory in America, and producing their own chips?

 

I realize it's pretty far out of their speciality, but it seems like they could hire people who are computer engineers to figure it out.

 

If ford can team up with VW, why not create join forces with tesla to create some jobs here and gain some important technological independence

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34 minutes ago, probowler said:

Question, what is stopping ford from building their own chip factory in America, and producing their own chips?

 

Main reason is economic. It is extremely expensive to build and operate a semiconductor foundry or fab, upwards of $1 billion just to get one up and running. If the fab has anything less than full or near full utilization, it will become a money pit for the company that operates it. That's why the pure play model used by TSMC, Globalfoundries, etc. makes sense. These companies have numerous contracts from multiple customers allowing them to keep utilization at their fabs at or near 100%.

 

Another reason concerns engineering expertise. Getting a fab operational, keeping it running, and upgrading it on an ongoing basis to keep up with advancements in process technology, requires extremely specialized skills that very few organizations possess. Ford certainly does not, and will not be able to hire a critical mass of material scientists, electrical engineers, chemical engineers, etc. to make semiconductor device production a viable business for them.

Edited by rperez817
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9 hours ago, rperez817 said:

Another reason concerns engineering expertise. Getting a fab operational, keeping it running, and upgrading it on an ongoing basis to keep up with advancements in process technology, requires extremely specialized skills that very few organizations possess. Ford certainly does not, and will not be able to hire a critical mass of material scientists, electrical engineers, chemical engineers, etc. to make semiconductor device production a viable business for them.

Ford actually tried it once in the 1990s !  It was call Ford Microelectronic and it was in Colorado Springs, which was supposed to be the next "silicon valley" at the time.

 

Rperez is correct.  It takes billions to go from "green field" site to a high volume chip manufacturing.  Ford Micro was going to do designed for automotive application and low volume production for ord Aerospace.  Aerospace never flourished (they were betting on government defense contracts that never happened).  Ford Micro did design 2 chips in cooperation with Intel, the 8063 (EEC-IV.5) and 8065 (EEC-V).  The 8063 was a classic of hardware guys not truly understanding what the software guys wanted/needed.  8065 was "too little, too late".  Also Intel did NOT want to be in a design business that did not guarantee them 100% of the chip manufacturing (Motorola built some of the 8065 chips).

 

Research on what became PTEC was started even before EEC-V was in full production.  Intel offered another 16 bit chip even though Ford clearly stated they wanted 32 bit.  When it became clear that Intel was not going to get the contract for the CPU, they refused to bid on the 32 bit Flash chip (Intel was the largest manufacturer of Flash back then.  They saw "no future" for 32 bit Flash.)

 

By the time PTEC was in full production, automotive no longer was "the tail that wagged the dog of the IC industry !"  Cell phones and other consumer devices were the high volume applications and those customers were NOT trying to beat them down on price.

Edited by theoldwizard1
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More closely related to the topic ...

 

Making ICs requires a large number of key suppliers.  They basic raw material, silicon wafers, is actually only manufactured by a few companies.  If that is the bottle neck, it will take huge investments to clear it (think of starting a steel manufacturing plant from nothing).

 

The other big issues (that has pushed Intel into being #2) is research, engineering and investment into the "next generation" of design and manufacturing.  At the moment TSMC is the only one with the money to do this.  TSMC is talking 5nm manufacturing before the end of the year.  Intel is still mostly 10nm.  There is no one else even in the race.

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11 hours ago, theoldwizard1 said:

The other big issues (that has pushed Intel into being #2) is research, engineering and investment into the "next generation" of design and manufacturing.  At the moment TSMC is the only one with the money to do this.  TSMC is talking 5nm manufacturing before the end of the year.  Intel is still mostly 10nmThere is no one else even in the race.

 

Samsung is developing smaller processes also...and Intel has a considerable amount of chips on 14nm process still. All of their highend gaming CPUs are 14nm+++ while AMD has everything on 7nm

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16 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

Samsung is developing smaller processes also...and Intel has a considerable amount of chips on 14nm process still. All of their highend gaming CPUs are 14nm+++ while AMD has everything on 7nm


And word is those AMD processors are hands down the best on the market right now. 

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2 hours ago, FR739 said:


Better than Apple’s M processors?  

Apple has just released its first M processor.  It’s basically their entry-level processor.  Subsequent processors will be faster.  AMD’s high end processors are very good.  I think they compare well to the M1, but I suspect they will have problems compared to Apple’s next processors (M1x or M2).

 

Check out Max Tech’s YouTube channel.  They recently did a comparison between the M1 MacBook Pro and an Asus with AMD’s best laptop chip.  The M1 was better in some tests.  The AMD chip was better in some tests.  The Asus did have an RTX 2600 graphics card, which helped in some tests. 

Edited by CurtisH
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2 minutes ago, fuzzymoomoo said:


As far as I'm concerned, yes. I'll take something that's been on the market for a bit over something just released and there's still a lot of unknowns with. Newest does not always mean best. 

There will, of course, be some teething issues. A friend has a new Mac Mini and had a problem hooking up a DVI monitor using a DVI/HDMI adapter.  Apple just released an update to Big Sur that addressed this issue.  There will be other issues. So far though, the transition to the M1 chip seems to be going rather smoothly. 

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4 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

The chip shortage is also hitting GPUS (graphics cards) and gaming systems.

 

Yes sir silvrsvt. With automotive applications of GPU (image processing for ADAS & AV, infotainment, digital instrument clusters, etc.) growing quickly, the "chip crunch" may be in place longer than expected.

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