2023 Transit Connect

[BarneyFord]

Deleted 

Edited June 19, 2021 by BarneyFord

[GearheadGrrrl]

Well being that you know all the details of the next gen TC, should I wait for it? And why?

[ausrutherford]

The TC being built in Mexico along with the BS and Maverick should also allow AWD to be an option. 

[GearheadGrrrl]

Could be done, the issue is whether AWD is worth raising the vehicle to clear the driveshaft or cutting into the interior space with a driveshaft hump? There also may be issues with DEF tank packaging in diesel TCs or battery packaging conflicts in hybrid TCs with a rear differential and driveshafts. VW ran into this problem when diesel emission standards required DEF tanks on the MQB cars, as a result TDI Diesel engines are pretty much FWD only on the MQB platform vehicles.

[blazerdude20]

6 hours ago, GearheadGrrrl said:

Could be done, the issue is whether AWD is worth raising the vehicle to clear the driveshaft or cutting into the interior space with a driveshaft hump? There also may be issues with DEF tank packaging in diesel TCs or battery packaging conflicts in hybrid TCs with a rear differential and driveshafts. VW ran into this problem when diesel emission standards required DEF tanks on the MQB cars, as a result TDI Diesel engines are pretty much FWD only on the MQB platform vehicles.

Price point might now allow for it, but perhaps electronic AWD would be good in this application. 

[bzcat]

On 6/19/2021 at 5:52 AM, GearheadGrrrl said:

I'm not so optimistic- Ford may just as likely screw up the TC. Ford has already committed Hermosillo to building 2 different boxy "trucklets"- Bronco Sport and Maverick- And how much capacity is there to build a third van shaped car there? Then there's the economics- With ROW getting a badge engineered VW Caddy van, the North American market is maybe 40k vehicles a year- Not enough to justify tooling up a whole new van. That leaves Ford the options of bringing over the current TC's tooling and building it at Hermasillo with a few updates, or stretching the Maverick's body and maybe raising the roof into a "sedan delivery" which while "cheep 'n' cheerful" would lose a lot of the TC's van utility.  

 

40k sales is supply and profit margin constrained. Ford reduced the number it imported from Spain after it lost the Chicken tax case on appeal. With local assembly, lower prices, and much bigger order guide to suit the fleets, sales will increase. The hybrid version will probably really dig into Toyota's dominance on the taxi fleet sale for example where Ford has basically withdrawn from the market. Also don't forget like Bronco Sport and Maverick, it is probably intended for sale in all of the Americas so production volume is going to be higher than how many Ford sold in the U.S. 

 

Also, it is basically just an alternate bodystyle of Maverick... even if it continued at 40k a year, that seems plenty to justify an alternate body style. 

 

 

Edited June 21, 2021 by bzcat

[jpd80]

Pre pandemic, Kentucky Truck Plant was doing some big months with up to 40,000 Trucks and SUVs being produced, so I don’t think it’s out of the question for Hermosillo to be run very hard if in fact required and could possibly vary its production mix as required by working Saturdays.

Edited June 22, 2021 by jpd80

[FordBuyer]

16 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

Pre pandemic, Kentucky Truck Plant was doing some big months with up to 40,000 Trucks and SUVs being produced, so I don’t think it’s out of the question for Hermosillo to be run very hard if in fact required and could possibly vary its production mix as required by working Saturdays.

 

So what are they saving Cuautitlan for? 50,000 Mach E's means plant is way underutilized. 

[jpd80]

GE2 vehicles are going there,

bzcat thinks it’s BEV Edge/ Nautilus 

while I think it’s BEV Explorer/Aviator 

 

whichever group it is, the place will be busy.

[rmc523]

1 hour ago, jpd80 said:

GE2 vehicles are going there,

bzcat thinks it’s BEV Edge/ Nautilus 

while I think it’s BEV Explorer/Aviator 

 

whichever group it is, the place will be busy.

 

The question there is what's ultimately going into Oakville - filling in that piece of the puzzle helps fill in the Cuautitlan piece.

Edited June 23, 2021 by rmc523

[silvrsvt]

4 hours ago, FordBuyer said:

 

So what are they saving Cuautitlan for? 50,000 Mach E's means plant is way underutilized. 

 

Its limited by battery supply for the Mach E at the moment. The Mach E was an EU compliance vehicle when it was first designed/developed. It evolved into the Mach E after they figured out that you need something bold to sell an EV and not some boring ass car like the Volt. I'm sure that the battery supply issue won't be an issue in a few years. 

I'm also sure that Lincoln is getting something based off the Mach E next year going by reports BEV replacing Lincoln Lineup.

But that also begs the question-what is going to happen to Louisville and Chicago down the road....all the products that are being built will have an EV equivalent built at a different plant (at least that's how I'm reading into this) in the next 4-5 years. 

So to me that means the CD6 and C2 platforms are dead ends, outside of the next gen TC and Maverick. I'd expect the Escape and Bronco Sport to move to an EV platform by 2030. The TC and Maverick would follow after that. 

[jpd80]

CD6 and C2 have enough headroom for incremental improvements to last years.

 

Heck, C1 started in 2003 and ran 18 years……

[jpd80]

1 hour ago, rmc523 said:

 

The question there is what's ultimately going into Oakville - filling in that piece of the puzzle helps fill in the Cuautitlan piece.

Answer is GE1 MME and at least 2x GE2 vehicles in the next year and a bit.

 

When Ford arranges more battery supply

[silvrsvt]

9 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

CD6 and C2 have enough headroom for incremental improvements to last years.

 

Right but I don't see them lasting longer than 2035, if that. All depends on how fast customers want (or are forced) to switch to BEVs

[silvrsvt]

9 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

Answer is GE1 MME and at least 2x GE2 vehicles in the next year and a bit.

 

I don't think we'll see GE2 products til 2023 or 2024CY going by the contract the union has with Ford and when the Edge balances out...which I thought was 2024, but might be mixing up CY with MY. 

[passis]

8 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

Right but I don't see them lasting longer than 2035, if that. All depends on how fast customers want (or are forced) to switch to BEVs

 

If you think globally they could last longer. In many parts of the world, the infrastructure for EVs just isn't there. With a few improvements from time to time C2 could be profitably milked for a while. But I think Ford has decided to focus on more developed markets and BEVs.

[jpd80]

21 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

I don't think we'll see GE2 products til 2023 or 2024CY going by the contract the union has with Ford and when the Edge balances out...which I thought was 2024, but might be mixing up CY with MY. 

The next year and a bit is almost CY 2023, we’re talking Mexico production so wouldn’t surprise me if the GE2s are actually Explorer:Aviator, 3-row Mid sized Utilities. 

[Harley Lover]

7 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

 

I don't think we'll see GE2 products til 2023 or 2024CY going by the contract the union has with Ford and when the Edge balances out...which I thought was 2024, but might be mixing up CY with MY. 

 This was already addressed in Ford's announcements/presentation to the investment community last week. "Lincoln will offer four battery-electric vehicles on Ford's new rear-wheel-drive/all-wheel-drive EV architecture in both North America and China, with the first set to debut next year. Lincoln President Joy Falotico said that EV would be a new nameplate and an addition to the brand's North America lineup, although she declined to say how much further Lincoln planned to grow beyond the four nameplates it offers now in North America."

 

 

Edited June 23, 2021 by Harley Lover

[silvrsvt]

1 hour ago, Harley Lover said:

 This was already addressed in Ford's announcements/presentation to the investment community last week. "Lincoln will offer four battery-electric vehicles on Ford's new rear-wheel-drive/all-wheel-drive EV architecture in both North America and China, with the first set to debut next year. Lincoln President Joy Falotico said that EV would be a new nameplate and an addition to the brand's North America lineup, although she declined to say how much further Lincoln planned to grow beyond the four nameplates it offers now in North America."

 

Which to me would make it the Lincoln version of the Mach E, since the engineering work has been done already and would be the most simple path forward. 

[Harley Lover]

6 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

Which to me would make it the Lincoln version of the Mach E, since the engineering work has been done already and would be the most simple path forward. 

 

Good grief, what part of  "Lincoln will offer four battery-electric vehicles on Ford's new rear-wheel-drive/all-wheel-drive EV architecture in both North America and China, with the first set to debut next year." is hard to understand?

It's possible that what was claimed in the article is inaccurate, but the quoted info taken at face value, you're being intentionally obtuse. 

[silvrsvt]

45 minutes ago, Harley Lover said:

 

Good grief, what part of  "Lincoln will offer four battery-electric vehicles on Ford's new rear-wheel-drive/all-wheel-drive EV architecture in both North America and China, with the first set to debut next year." i

 

I missed that, but given how things are reported at times, I'll believe it when I see it.

 

 

[FordBuyer]

18 hours ago, jpd80 said:

GE2 vehicles are going there,

bzcat thinks it’s BEV Edge/ Nautilus 

while I think it’s BEV Explorer/Aviator 

 

whichever group it is, the place will be busy.

 

That is pretty risky as UAW will go nuts if expensive Lincoln products go to Mexico. Thought Ontario gets those products which will piss off UAW a bit less. 

[bzcat]

17 hours ago, rmc523 said:

 

The question there is what's ultimately going into Oakville - filling in that piece of the puzzle helps fill in the Cuautitlan piece.

 

This was answered earlier this year. Oakville will get MEB based Corsair (and logically Escape) EV.

 

 

This is Ford's North America EV production plan as we know it now (all subject to change because... Ford):

1. Oakville compact EV - MEB based: Corsair, Escape (~2023, plus ICE version of Edge and Nautilus)

2. Cuautitlan midsize EV - GE1/GE2 based: Mach E, Edge, Nautilus (~2022)

3. Kansas City van EV - Transit EV (~2021)

4. Detroit truck EV - F-150 Lightning, next gen TE1 F-150 (~2022)

 

Plants that will likely see EV announcement relatively soon:

5. Ohio - It is the only logical place for GE2 Explorer and Aviator (~2024)

6. Flat Rock - Ford promoised Mustang EV... can't imagine it going anywhere else (~2028)

7. Michigan T6 - next gen Ranger Lightning and Bronco EV (~2024)

 

Plants that have no EV plans now so will continue building ICE until current product expires

8. Hermosilo C2 - Bronco Sport, Maverick, Transit Connect

9. Louisville C2 - Escape and Corsair, Ford will likely keep them in production to sell next to the EV version after 2024

10. Chicago CD6 - Explorer and Aviator, Ford will likely keep them in production to sell next to the EV version after 2024

 

Upcoming EVs that have no home yet:

- TE1 Expedition and Navigator

- Rivian based truck (although Rivian will probably build it)

- Medium duty EV (I'm assuming there is one in the work otherwise Ford is in big trouble)

- GE2 Explorer and Aviator (I'm assuming Ohio but it's just a guess)

 

Upcoming non-EV that have no home yet:

- C2 Fusion (supposedly still coming but looking less likely by the minute)

 

Edited June 23, 2021 by bzcat

[Harley Lover]

^^ If we stipulate the above, I wonder what implications that might have for where Ford would plan to build battery plants. An approach could be to locate them in close proximity to the production plants, which could potentially provide jobs for the UAW workers that might lose their positions in the less labor intensive EV plants. Could be a win win for all involved. The Mexico plant might be an outlier in this context, and Ford would have to ship batteries to that plant.

[FordBuyer]

51 minutes ago, bzcat said:

 

This was answered earlier this year. Oakville will get MEB based Corsair (and logically Escape) EV.

 

 

This is Ford's North America EV production plan as we know it now (all subject to change because... Ford):

1. Oakville compact EV - MEB based: Corsair, Escape (~2023, plus ICE version of Edge and Nautilus)

2. Cuautitlan midsize EV - GE1/GE2 based: Mach E, Edge, Nautilus (~2022)

3. Kansas City van EV - Transit EV (~2021)

4. Detroit truck EV - F-150 Lightning, next gen TE1 F-150 (~2022)

 

Plants that will likely see EV announcement relatively soon:

5. Ohio - It is the only logical place for GE2 Explorer and Aviator (~2024)

6. Flat Rock - Ford promoised Mustang EV... can't imagine it going anywhere else (~2028)

7. Michigan T6 - next gen Ranger Lightning and Bronco EV (~2024)

 

Plants that have no EV plans now so will continue building ICE until current product expires

8. Hermosilo C2 - Bronco Sport, Maverick, Transit Connect

9. Louisville C2 - Escape and Corsair, Ford will likely keep them in production to sell next to the EV version after 2024

10. Chicago CD6 - Explorer and Aviator, Ford will likely keep them in production to sell next to the EV version after 2024

 

Upcoming EVs that have no home yet:

- TE1 Expedition and Navigator

- Rivian based truck (although Rivian will probably build it)

- Medium duty EV (I'm assuming there is one in the work otherwise Ford is in big trouble)

- GE2 Explorer and Aviator (I'm assuming Ohio but it's just a guess)

 

Upcoming non-EV that have no home yet:

- C2 Fusion (supposedly still coming but looking less likely by the minute)

 

 

I would think by 2025 or so Ford will build only hybrid as base engine, plugin as option, and full electric. So no more stand alone ICE's.