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Can we get the chip shortage under control?


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I cannot believe this small item is shutting down assembly lines all over.  Why can’t Ford press Washington to allocate inventory?  I read all about how since auto demand was down auto didn’t place large orders and their allocation went to computers and gaming systems that were in hot demand due to COVID work from home stuff.  I call bs. Ford is a global player.  There isn’t 1 f350 on a dealer floor plan within 30 miles of me.  There is huge demand for these 80k trucks and they are shutting down a shift?  

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The shortage isn’t just automotive chips.  Something happened to disrupt the supply.  I’m not sure where the chips went.  Automotive is short, cell phones are short (Qualcomm reported it in their earnings report).  Nvidia can’t meet demand..not sure if their chip shipments are down, I haven’t looked.  So it is a widespread problem beyond just Automotive.

 

Second,  there are very few fabs in the US, so it is an international issue.  We can’t just demand chips get allocated a certain way and expect results.

 

In order to get more allocation, automakers will likely need to increase how much they are willing to pay.

 

 

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As I understand it, there's eight major chip plants in China but only one produces automotive chips.

Last year, there was a huge increase in demand for home entertainment chips and because vehicle 

production was subdued, the Chinese made a decision to divert resources away from the automotive 

plant and to the other seven plants. When automotive production came back on line, supply was limited.

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Several parts to this problem. Many of the chip fab plants are overseas and have many other potential customers who are willing to pay more, but also are buying higher value chips that make more money.

Automakers cut production a year ago, and as a part of that cancelled many orders so they did not have to keep unused chips on hand. That production then shifted to higher value chips. And the purchasing policies of some automakers do not help. Always demanding rock bottom prices, and price cuts throughout the purchase contract makes you less attractive as a customer, especially when supplies are tight.

 

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3 minutes ago, lfeg said:

Several parts to this problem. Many of the chip fab plants are overseas and have many other potential customers who are willing to pay more, but also are buying higher value chips that make more money.

Automakers cut production a year ago, and as a part of that cancelled many orders so they did not have to keep unused chips on hand. That production then shifted to higher value chips. And the purchasing policies of some automakers do not help. Always demanding rock bottom prices, and price cuts throughout the purchase contract makes you less attractive as a customer, especially when supplies are tight.

,

 

Some reject the "America First" policy. Don't for a minute think there isn't a China first, Japan first or Korea first policy. Maybe not articulated, but firmly in place. Don't forget Japanese companies are tightly integrated with suppliers. Korean, notably Hyundai, notably is a conglomerate that has interest in  chip manufacturing.  

 

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9 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

National Potato Chip Day was last week on March 14. Looks like the President is taking the whole chip thing seriously!  ?

What?  We have to double up on PI day?  Guess I should have made a frito pie.

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The only thing that will get more ICs in the hands of the electronic suppliers for the automotive companies in the short term is a reduction in demand to ICs in consumer goods and that is NOT going to happen !

 

TSMC is the worlds largest (and arguably the BEST) IC manufacturer.  Apple buys most of their chips from TSMC and is willing to pay a premium price. THAT IS NOT GOING TO CHANGE !  Demand for Play Stations and X-boxes does not look like it is fading.  UHD televisions is consuming a lot of silicon also.  Last, the auto industry has gone INSANE with small electronic modules !  Dozens and dozens per car.  It make you wonder if they are really "cost effective" or are there just to "catch the customers eye".

 

TSMC is building a large factory in AZ, but it will likely take 3-5 years before it is up to full production.

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This Cars.com article says that even with the current chip shortage -- which means higher prices and less selection available at dealerships -- it is still better to buy now than wait, as chip-shortage-fueled automotive production cuts will get worse before they get better. See:

 

https://www.cars.com/articles/global-microchip-shortage-makes-now-the-time-to-shop-for-cars-432067/

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5 hours ago, Gurgeh said:

This Cars.com article says that even with the current chip shortage -- which means higher prices and less selection available at dealerships -- it is still better to buy now than wait, as chip-shortage-fueled automotive production cuts will get worse before they get better. See:

 

https://www.cars.com/articles/global-microchip-shortage-makes-now-the-time-to-shop-for-cars-432067/


Sure, assuming what you want is even available.

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