ice-capades Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 From what I'm seeing at the local level, based on both inventory levels and the latest internal 30-day sales reports, the June sales are going to take a big hit across most if not all vehicle lines. I run 30-day sales rate reports that are updated every 10 days and I'm seeing a minimum 25% drop from May's numbers. With available inventory in general now about 25% of the usual sales rate, the sales numbers can only drop sharply. And even though Ford's started to increase production schedules for July and August, it's going to take time for that new inventory to get scheduled, produced, shipped and arrive at the dealerships. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, ice-capades said: From what I'm seeing at the local level, based on both inventory levels and the latest internal 30-day sales reports, the June sales are going to take a big hit across most if not all vehicle lines. I run 30-day sales rate reports that are updated every 10 days and I'm seeing a minimum 25% drop from May's numbers. With available inventory in general now about 25% of the usual sales rate, the sales numbers can only drop sharply. And even though Ford's started to increase production schedules for July and August, it's going to take time for that new inventory to get scheduled, produced, shipped and arrive at the dealerships. May production was terrible, lots of plants idled, so big distortion in sales numbers coming, can’t sell what you don’t have. Equally, a great opportunity to move anything else that is available, close to 7,000 MMEs built last month and Hermosillo looks to be getting chips so fingers crossed there. Edited June 26, 2021 by jpd80 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 28 minutes ago, jpd80 said: Hermosillo looks to be getting chips so fingers crossed there. There was a rumor floating around that they were about to be idled for a week or 2 because of chips Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 1 hour ago, fuzzymoomoo said: There was a rumor floating around that they were about to be idled for a week or 2 because of chips That wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest, a couple of months at 15k and 17k production would eat up most of its available chip supply. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oac98 Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 13 hours ago, jpd80 said: May production was terrible, lots of plants idled, so big distortion in sales numbers coming, can’t sell what you don’t have. Equally, a great opportunity to move anything else that is available, close to 7,000 MMEs built last month and Hermosillo looks to be getting chips so fingers crossed there. So was June for OAC at least. Down for 4 weeks. We go back on the 28th work for 4 days then 1 week summer shutdown. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oac98 Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, Oacjay98 said: So was June for OAC at least. Down for 4 weeks. We go back on the 28th work for 4 days then 1 week summer shutdown. 13 hours ago, jpd80 said: May production was terrible, lots of plants idled, so big distortion in sales numbers coming, can’t sell what you don’t have. Equally, a great opportunity to move anything else that is available, close to 7,000 MMEs built last month and Hermosillo looks to be getting chips so fingers crossed there. Still piles of edges and nautilus rotting outside although people in final department were doing repairs and shipping Lincoln’s last week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oac98 Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 13 hours ago, fuzzymoomoo said: There was a rumor floating around that they were about to be idled for a week or 2 because of chips Isn’t that Japanese chip factory renesas naka up and running now?? Aren’t they a big chip supplier for ford?? I know we’re far from out of the woods and the layoffs will continue let’s just hope at a lesser rate in the 3rd and 4th quarter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slemke Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 5 minutes ago, Oacjay98 said: Isn’t that Japanese chip factory renesas naka up and running now?? Aren’t they a big chip supplier for ford?? I know we’re far from out of the woods and the layoffs will continue let’s just hope at a lesser rate in the 3rd and 4th quarter. Yes, but it can still take months from wafer start to finished tested and packaged modules. Depends on the technology node and number of steps involved. The newest process nodes have more steps and take considerably longer than older nodes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 (edited) This will be the perfect storm for the next few months, Ford will be reviewing every every decision that lead to this vulnerability. Edited June 27, 2021 by jpd80 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackinaw Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 19 minutes ago, Oacjay98 said: Isn’t that Japanese chip factory renesas naka up and running now?? Aren’t they a big chip supplier for ford?? I know we’re far from out of the woods and the layoffs will continue let’s just hope at a lesser rate in the 3rd and 4th quarter. The Japanese factory was at 88% of full production at June 1st. They hit 100% in mid-June. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oac98 Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 11 hours ago, slemke said: Yes, but it can still take months from wafer start to finished tested and packaged modules. Depends on the technology node and number of steps involved. The newest process nodes have more steps and take considerably longer than older nodes. Yep hopefully things start to get better as forecasted third quarter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 13 hours ago, slemke said: Yes, but it can still take months from wafer start to finished tested and packaged modules. Depends on the technology node and number of steps involved. The newest process nodes have more steps and take considerably longer than older nodes. I was under the impression that a lot of the modules that are in biggest need aren't necessarily the latest and greatest technology because it's not necessary for their functional use and they can get them faster/cheaper. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackinaw Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 36 minutes ago, fuzzymoomoo said: I was under the impression that a lot of the modules that are in biggest need aren't necessarily the latest and greatest technology because it's not necessary for their functional use and they can get them faster/cheaper. That's what I read too. Chips for autos are old-tech. Chip makers would rather invest money on higher profit, new-tech chips that go into cell phones and the like. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slemke Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 10 hours ago, mackinaw said: That's what I read too. Chips for autos are old-tech. Chip makers would rather invest money on higher profit, new-tech chips that go into cell phones and the like. Except for some the driver assistance features. Those use newer nodes. Many of the automotive chips, though are on old mature technology so the cycle times are much shorter. From semiengineering.com: Generally, the most common metric for cycle time in the fab is “days per mask layer.” On average, a fab takes 1 to 1.5 days to process a layer. The best fabs are down to 0.8 days, Leachman said. A 28nm device has 40 to 50 mask layers. In comparison, a 14nm/10nm device has 60 layers, with 7nm expected to jump to 80 to 85. 5nm could have 100 layers. So, using today’s lithographic techniques, the cycle times are increasing from roughly 40 days at 28nm, to 60 days at 14nm/10nm, to 80 to 85 days at 7nm. 5nm may extend to 100 days using today’s techniques, without extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography. That’s just the wafer mfg. it still needs to be tested, diced, packaged and tested again before it is ready to ship. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FordBuyer Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 20 hours ago, mackinaw said: That's what I read too. Chips for autos are old-tech. Chip makers would rather invest money on higher profit, new-tech chips that go into cell phones and the like. It would seem to me that Ford has a CONTRACT with certain companies to produce all the chips it needs for a certain price. So I get the fire at Japanese plant that put a dent in their supply chain. Now that this plant is up and running, I would think CONTRACT needs to be honored. In other words, I don't think suppliers can sell their chips to highest bidder and avoid lawsuits since they are breaking their contract. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 1 hour ago, FordBuyer said: It would seem to me that Ford has a CONTRACT with certain companies to produce all the chips it needs for a certain price. So I get the fire at Japanese plant that put a dent in their supply chain. Now that this plant is up and running, I would think CONTRACT needs to be honored. In other words, I don't think suppliers can sell their chips to highest bidder and avoid lawsuits since they are breaking their contract. You missed the part where Ford lowered their forecasts due to Covid so now they have to get back in queue per the contract. These chips and modules have long lead times and you can’t just change your forecast and get instant results. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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