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HOLY SHNIKES..TTAC Opinion on Tesla CT


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26 minutes ago, ekrampitzjr said:

My hunch is that Tesla has peaked.  Everyone is jumping on the EV bandwagon, including now in the BEV truck market, and Tesla is a day late and dollar short.

 

Once other manufacturers have EVs in large numbers, mainly the fanboys will be the only ones buying Teslas, including the pickup.  I don't see a bright future for that company.  Once production gets underway, Ford will sell more electric F-150s in a month (or a week) than Tesla will sell CTs in a year.


There is a bright future for Tesla - as a supplier of BEV components and alternative energy systems.  But not as a vehicle mfr.

 

I think this was the plan all along and Musk used BEVs to fund the research and jumpstart the BEV market.

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On 7/16/2021 at 1:06 PM, rperez817 said:

Among Tesla Cybertruck's competitors, release date for Rivian R1T got delayed again. Originally scheduled for July 2021, 1st deliveries of R1T now are scheduled for September 2021. Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe tells customers R1T truck deliveries delayed until September (autonews.com)

 “Beyond these (pandemic related) unforeseen challenges, launching three new vehicles while setting up a multi-vehicle manufacturing plant is a complex orchestra of coordinated and interlinked activities where small issues can translate into ramp delays.” -CEO RJ Scaringe in a letter to depositors.

R1S, R1T, and...? the Amazon van?

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3 hours ago, Chrisgb said:

 “Beyond these (pandemic related) unforeseen challenges, launching three new vehicles while setting up a multi-vehicle manufacturing plant is a complex orchestra of coordinated and interlinked activities where small issues can translate into ramp delays.” -CEO RJ Scaringe in a letter to depositors.

R1S, R1T, and...? the Amazon van?

 

From the article:



Rivian's plant in Normal, Ill., Scaringe said, is currently producing vehicles on two production lines: one for the R1T and R1S utility vehicle, the other for electric delivery vans for Amazon, Rivian's biggest commercial customer. He said the company is working to ensure that vehicles sold to customers won't have quality issues.

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6 hours ago, ekrampitzjr said:

Tesla is a day late and dollar short.

 

People have been saying that about Tesla since Tesla was founded. Yet today it's the highest valued automaker in the world (though it does make non-automotive energy generation and storage products).

 

Competition in the automotive industry is fierce, and Tesla has its share of organizational problems. But overall the company has a bright future ahead as the whole industry transitions to 100% electric vehicles and 100% autonomous vehicles.

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  • 3 weeks later...
1 hour ago, akirby said:

I’ll just go on record again saying this will never see production in current form.  

 

Let's hope so. The Cybertruck is extremely ugly. Hopefully, Tesla is totally redesigning the exterior. However, I wouldn't underestimate Tesla's ability to produce a competitive electric pickup. The naysayers on here have been wrong about Tesla consistently as it grows every year exponentially. Chip shortage isn't slowing it down much either. 

 

Only negative in my book is Elon Musk losing interest and/or stepping down or selling it. He is spread so thin and the stress must be eatng him up as Space X stretches its wings out of Earth's orbit to the moon and beyond.

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1 hour ago, rmc523 said:

This is impossible.  Tesla can do no wrong.  And Ford is the only auto manufacturer that has launch issues/delays.  Didn't anyone tell them?

 

Actually, rmc523 sir, it's another example of Elon Musk's brilliant engineering and marketing strategy for his REVolution.

Edited by MadManMoon
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1 hour ago, FordBuyer said:

However, I wouldn't underestimate Tesla's ability to produce a competitive electric pickup. The naysayers on here have been wrong about Tesla consistently as it grows every year exponentially. Chip shortage isn't slowing it down much either. 


They should have just bought Rivian. If Tesla had a truck and SUV similar to the Rivians I’d be worried. The Cybertruck will sell well, but to the faithful who wouldn’t buy a real truck anyway. If anything I see it selling to Tahoe/Expedition buyers. 

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 7/15/2021 at 4:14 PM, jcartwright99 said:

What particularity got me was the tweet from TTAC for this story. Immediately after it was tweeted, the zealots (some paid and some not) came out in full force spewing lots of rubbish. Go ahead and waste some time and read a few. Tesla/Musk is like a cult for some. Which is weird to me. I like Ford but you will hear me throw them under the bus for doing dumb shit. I've had some really good Ford products and some really bad (86 Ford Tempo). I just can't see myself ever being so motivated to defend a product that doesn't exist, against other products that aren't on sale yet either....all because of tweet that says it could be a flop? 

 

I've long speculated the rabid fandom around Tesla has to do with the fact that a lot of them probably invested in the company early on and are financially tied to the success of Tesla stock.  Sort of like Scientology in a way.  I'm guessing some are overleveraged and a big drop in the stock's value would impact a large portion of their net worth.  So that is why you see this weird cult-like behavior and rushing to Elon's defense.

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46 minutes ago, mustang84isu said:

 

I've long speculated the rabid fandom around Tesla has to do with the fact that a lot of them probably invested in the company early on and are financially tied to the success of Tesla stock.  Sort of like Scientology in a way.  I'm guessing some are overleveraged and a big drop in the stock's value would impact a large portion of their net worth.  So that is why you see this weird cult-like behavior and rushing to Elon's defense.


Several others

 

greenies who believe electric vehicles will save the planet

people who despise traditional automotive dealers

gadget geeks who look at it like the latest and greatest smartphone

Musk worshippers

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10 hours ago, mustang84isu said:

I'm guessing some are overleveraged and a big drop in the stock's value would impact a large portion of their net worth.  So that is why you see this weird cult-like behavior and rushing to Elon's defense.

 

There are a few people people like that. There's also a cult that's as large or larger on the opposite side consisting of people who want Tesla to fail. Some of those cult members probably have short positions on TSLA.

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38 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

 

There are a few people people like that. There's also a cult that's as large or larger on the opposite side consisting of people who want Tesla to fail. Some of those cult members probably have short positions on TSLA.


Most “naysayers”  just want Tesla to be evaluated fairly and logically.

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16 minutes ago, akirby said:

Most “naysayers”  just want Tesla to be evaluated fairly and logically.

 

To evaluate Tesla as a company fairly and logically, it must be analyzed not as an automaker (even though it is currently the automotive industry leader in designing, engineering and marketing BEV), but as a business that has revolutionized the world and continues to do so. Professor Enrique Dans explained this in a Forbes article from 1 year ago. Where Does Tesla Go From Here? (forbes.com)

 

Regardless of what some people want to believe, what’s really important about Tesla is not its electric vehicles. What is really important, apart from the fact that it has chosen to leverage technologies subjected to very strong economies of scale, will be its role in leading the energy revolution, one that begins not so much when most people decide to purchase an electric vehicle instead of an internal combustion-powered vehicle, but when they begin recharging that electric vehicle with the solar-powered energy generated by panels on the roofs of their homes. When the market begins to see the effect of offering reasonably priced domestic power generation alternatives and storing the surplus in batteries, Tesla’s current stock increase will reflect what the company really is: not an automotive company, but something much, much more ambitious.

Tesla’s next phase is not to sell cars, but instead to license automotive technology and sell energy solutions at all levels, both domestic and industrial. When the market truly understands what Tesla is and the consequences of its success, we’ll talk again.

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Tesla has been so revolutionary that they haven't really been able to produce any of their revolutionary products outside of cars, at a sufficient scale to make any meaningful impact, nor make any meaningful profit after 13 years of Elon being in charge.  Tesla has cars, home battery systems, and solar panels, all of which previously existed.  They may have put pretty packaging on all of it, but it remains outside the realm of possibilities for most consumers due to cost.  I would love to have a solar roof and battery system, but I am not about to drop $70 to $100k on getting it installed when it would never pay itself back.  TSLA is valued based on an idea, hope and dreams, not on the reality of their performance as a company.

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21 minutes ago, Flying68 said:

 TSLA is valued based on an idea, hope and dreams, not on the reality of their performance as a company.


This.

 

I give Musk all the credit in the world for advancing battery technology and proving BEVs are viable and for raising tons of capital to fund that R&D.  It’s a smart model - develop the technology while selling things that create a future market for the technology to help fund the R&D.

 

But when it comes to running businesses and making money he comes up short.  The gigafactory concept and factory direct sales is 100 yrs old.  The reason today’s auto mfrs don’t do it is because it’s too expensive and it doesn’t scale.  But it sounds great and everyone calls him a disruptor for doing it without realizing the limitations.

 

As for sales, it’s easy to sell vehicles if you’re not making money.  Using round numbers Ford sells over 2M vehicles per year and in a good year makes $8B profit.  That equates to $4K per vehicle.  Now go to every Ford dealer and put an additional $4K rebate on every vehicle and sales would go theough the roof.  Ford would easily be #1 by a huge margin but no profit to show for it.   So do t talk to me about sales volumes unless they’re accompanied by a healthy profit margin.

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