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Used Truck Values


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What are the used trucks really worth? How long will the value's hold? Is anyone else waiting to sell their current truck, until their new truck arrives?

 

I had a 2017 F350 Lariat CC LB 6.7, loaded up with less than 20K miles and a 2019 F350 STX CC LB 6.7, also with less than 20K miles. Several months back as values began to climb I decided it might be a good idea to swap out to the 22 model with no mileage, full warranty and 10 speed trans. I knew it would cost a little, but if the spread was small enough it would be worth it. Not to surprising, I couldn't find a dealer to sell for less than retail, so I ordered the first truck (X-Plan Pricing) for $72,500 OTD to replace the 2019 STX, then I proceeded to sell the Lariat, because it sees occasional use while the STX sees daily use. I sold the Lariat for $76K and ordered the replacement truck for this one at a cost of $81,000 OTD, so basically it cost me $5,000 to upgrade from a 2017 with 20K miles to a new 2022 (Not to bad, IMO). Now I am down to one truck and waiting for the first order to deliver to sell the second truck. I was hoping to get around $66K for second truck, but currently the KBB values are pulling back a little. However, I don't know what the dealer book values are doing since they don't always align with KBB.

 

It seems that the KBB value hit a peak at the beginning of July and has pulled back a little since then. Does anyone know if this is a normal seasonal adjustment, since summer trips are well under way and business's aren't looking at end of year spending at this time? Is the fall season typically a slow time for auto sales? It seems that the supply chain will not be worked out for at least another 6 months, if not a year or more, so I would think that prices will climb again going into year end. Does anyone have any insight or thoughts regarding what the values will do from here, both new and used?

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I am no expert in the automotive industry, but all articles I've been reading say that while the chip shortage may not be eliminated anytime soon,  it is and will continue to slowly be improving at this point.  As far as used values, my gut says they have already reached the top.  I think they'll remain high for at least 6 more months, but will probably be pulling back ever so slowly as time goes.  Used values are the reason I ordered a new truck.  I have a 2006 with almost 200k on it, and I typically like to buy a good clean 5-7 year old truck when I upgrade, but I refuse to pay nearly a new price for a used truck, So I'm willing to wait

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I also just noticed the question on new values....Again, i'm no expert, but......regarding new car pricing, its never going down, and I think there is a LOT of room for prices to increase on new vehicles.  Seems like the price of everything has increased significantly post-covid,  especially raw materials such as steel/lumber.   We put a pre-fab steel building up last November, and when I got a price in May for another building exactly the same, the cost had gone up 40%.  It seems like new vehicles in particular have not had drastic price increases yet and its hard for me to believe they wont.  This is another reason I ordered a new truck this time around, because I believe there must be some significant price increases coming in the next year or two. 

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1 hour ago, Kory04 said:

I also just noticed the question on new values....Again, i'm no expert, but......regarding new car pricing, its never going down, and I think there is a LOT of room for prices to increase on new vehicles.  Seems like the price of everything has increased significantly post-covid,  especially raw materials such as steel/lumber.   We put a pre-fab steel building up last November, and when I got a price in May for another building exactly the same, the cost had gone up 40%.  It seems like new vehicles in particular have not had drastic price increases yet and its hard for me to believe they wont.  This is another reason I ordered a new truck this time around, because I believe there must be some significant price increases coming in the next year or two. 

 

There is a lot of built in margin to new car pricing that is typically adjusted through rebates, not lowering the MSRP. I have a little concern that we might see big rebates on the 2021's that are sitting with no chips. When selling my last truck, I didn't see the pent up demand that I thought there was in the market place. If demand is low, what are they going to to with all those trucks, unless relative to the market it is still a very small number?

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The fall is typically when dealers get incentivized to move leftover stock. There will be very little this year. Because the chip shortage has changed the entire market it will still be months before the used market comes down to earth. I plan to trade my truck in when the new one comes. Right now it is valued at 47-50k. If my new truck comes in by the end of Oct I am going to guess that the price of my old truck might drop to 45-48k at that point. The market will keep adjusting but until the inventory is back to normal there is still going to be higher prices. Keep in mind that if you ordered a truck from Ford, your truck will be on the lot before dealer stock arrives. Dealer stock is not prioritized over retail orders. It’s going to be a while for things to really drop a lot. 

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55 minutes ago, ardvark666 said:

Keep in mind that if you ordered a truck from Ford, your truck will be on the lot before dealer stock arrives. Dealer stock is not prioritized over retail orders.

I’m not sure about this anymore. I know that is what the folks in the know have said but my dealer has two 2022 F250s showing as “coming soon” on his website and both have VINs. If I read the info on this forum correctly having a VIN means it’s scheduled for production. I ordered my F350 on 4/30 and am still sitting at unscheduled-clean.

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Our dealer would not move from msrp for our  22 KR drw F350, but having said that they are giving a very good trade in value for our low mileage, 2018 full load Lariat F350. It is approx 4k more then we paid for it in 2018 and considerably more then what KBB says the truck is worth, so I am happy as the deal is locked in and if there are any incentives that Ford announces before delivery I will get that applied to the deal. Dealer was comfortable with giving a good trade as they feel this shortage is going to go on for sometime yet. Would not be surprised if they don't have a list of folks waiting for good used trucks to come in on trade

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1 hour ago, 1TonOFun said:

I’m not sure about this anymore. I know that is what the folks in the know have said but my dealer has two 2022 F250s showing as “coming soon” on his website and both have VINs. If I read the info on this forum correctly having a VIN means it’s scheduled for production. I ordered my F350 on 4/30 and am still sitting at unscheduled-clean.

 

 

how do you know those arent spoken for? do the window stickers pull up? if so are they blue or green?  

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@JHForman812 I asked the dealer about that because I was a little shocked to see them. He said they only put stock trucks on his webpage, they don’t list retail orders. They put retail ordered trucks out on the lot until they are picked up so people can see them but don’t put them on the website. He said they have sold several 2021 models before they hit the lot because people want them bad enough they don’t want to lose out so they buy them sight unseen but again those were dealer stock not retail orders. The window stickers don’t pull up yet so I have to go by his word (he’s a straight shooter so I believe him).

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7 minutes ago, 1TonOFun said:

@JHForman812 I asked the dealer about that because I was a little shocked to see them. He said they only put stock trucks on his webpage, they don’t list retail orders. They put retail ordered trucks out on the lot until they are picked up so people can see them but don’t put them on the website. He said they have sold several 2021 models before they hit the lot because people want them bad enough they don’t want to lose out so they buy them sight unseen but again those were dealer stock not retail orders. The window stickers don’t pull up yet so I have to go by his word (he’s a straight shooter so I believe him).

 

 

understood.  during the first couple of days i believe they ran stock orders and now seem to be focusing on retail orders.  Have you seen the tracking spreadsheet on FTE?  

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11 hours ago, 1TonOFun said:

I’m not sure about this anymore. I know that is what the folks in the know have said but my dealer has two 2022 F250s showing as “coming soon” on his website and both have VINs. If I read the info on this forum correctly having a VIN means it’s scheduled for production. I ordered my F350 on 4/30 and am still sitting at unscheduled-clean.

On my dealers website my 22 showed up like that, as well as all the other special orders.  They ended up taking them down due to massive influx of calls for vehicles that already had deposits/were sold.  

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13 hours ago, Robin Hood said:

 

There is a lot of built in margin to new car pricing that is typically adjusted through rebates, not lowering the MSRP. I have a little concern that we might see big rebates on the 2021's that are sitting with no chips. When selling my last truck, I didn't see the pent up demand that I thought there was in the market place. If demand is low, what are they going to to with all those trucks, unless relative to the market it is still a very small number?

I wouldn’t take one of those 21s that has sat for months without a chip, in a field with grass growing up under it.   No way.  Wouldn’t want it if they gave it to me, the risk of damages from rodents etc and everything on the underside being subject to wet dewy grass growing up it.  Not a possible headache I’d risk.  I would think not many people are going to be banging down doors to get those. However,  The 21s randomly showing up in my area from who knows where are going for 5-10k + over MSRP.  Going to be really interesting to watch this bubble eventually burst. 

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My 2017 F250 was totaled in May Insurance gave me 3000 less then what I paid when I bought it, I tried to buy a 2020 with 19k miles and it was selling for 3500 more then the one I ordered, hence why I am waiting. And the new ones some dealerships were asking 10k over sticker and calling it (market adjustment) I said no thank you. So I wait
 

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   I am in MA the dealers around here are bare no trucks. The dealer I deal with keeps asking me if I would be interested in selling mine very clean only 8800 miles. I looked @ 1 new truck that came in it had all kinds of crayon notes on the door windows of stuff the truck was missing it was mind scratching too say the less then their was 5  trucks all cabs with stake beds on them with fisher plows all the same. not a fleet order ether. Here @ this time every year they have this caravan of all ford trucks of with all models & they have this big parade from Brake & Clutch that all they do install fisher plows & send them around to all the dealers it`s pretty cool to see the long line of fords with yellow plows. didn`t ck the year but had to be 21`s don`t know how fast those will go but only 4 trucks including the 1 with the writing on the window 2 new 2 used that`s all they had. Their is 1 dealer just over the MA line into NH he always  has rows & rows of trucks still does just a few rows less

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I was initially looking at a 2018/2019 F250/F350 until I saw the prices. Once I realized I could get a new one cheaper with D-Plan, that is the route I decided to take.  I do hope the used car market value holds true until I am able to trade in the wife's Explorer when the new one arrives hopefully in the beginning/middle of September.

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