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Rivian's IPO is valued at $80Billion


bzcat

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Rivian has filed its S1 with SEC and values the company at $80 billion. Not hard to imagine this going double or triple this amount once the stock start trading.

 

It's a crazy number for a company that has yet to deliver a vehicle to retail customer (supposedly it has already delivered a bunch of vans to Amazon). 

 

Ford is valued at $53 billion based on Friday 8/27 closing price. Ford reportedly owns somewhere between 15 and 20% of the company. At current valuation, Ford's equity investment in Rivian is actually the single most valuable part of Ford. Not the F-150. Not its distribution network with dealers in every small town in America. Not its joint venture in China. Not its 100 years old European operation. Nuts. 

 

https://electrek.co/2021/08/27/electric-pickup-startup-rivian-files-for-public-offering-80-billion-valuation/

 

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1133398_rivian-files-for-ipo-80-billion-target-is-350-times-tesla-s-ipo-valuation

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ev-company-rivian-confidentially-files-for-public-listing-11630080304

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/27/business/rivian-ipo-electric-trucks.html

 

https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/27/cars/rivian-ipo/index.html

 

Edited by bzcat
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33 minutes ago, bzcat said:

Rivian has filed its S1 with SEC and values the company at $80 billion. Not hard to imagine this going double or triple this amount once the stock start trading.

 

It's a crazy number for a company that has yet to deliver a vehicle to retail customer (supposedly it has already delivered a bunch of vans to Amazon). 

 

Ford is valued at $53 billion based on Friday 8/27 closing price. Ford reportedly owns somewhere between 15 and 20% of the company. At current valuation, Ford's equity investment in Rivian is actually the single most valuable part of Ford. Not the F-150. Not its distribution network with dealers in every small town in America. Not its joint venture in China. Not its 100 years old European operation. Nuts. 

 

https://electrek.co/2021/08/27/electric-pickup-startup-rivian-files-for-public-offering-80-billion-valuation/

 

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1133398_rivian-files-for-ipo-80-billion-target-is-350-times-tesla-s-ipo-valuation

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ev-company-rivian-confidentially-files-for-public-listing-11630080304

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/27/business/rivian-ipo-electric-trucks.html

 

https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/27/cars/rivian-ipo/index.html

 

Tesla’s market valuation is/was equally nuts.  At least Tesla is actually making a profit now.

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Tesla is valued at $700 billion... more than the top 10 car companies in the world combined. 

 

It defies logic but that's just how the capital market works.

 

Like I mentioned before, Ford's investment in Rivian is rather strategic. Ford sells more EV than Rivian and will continue to do so for a long time (probably forever). So Ford's ownership stake in Rivian will force the market to reevaluate Ford in context to Rivian. 

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4 hours ago, bzcat said:

Tesla is valued at $700 billion... more than the top 10 car companies in the world combined. 

 

It defies logic but that's just how the capital market works.

 

It's actually very logical. You have to consider that Rivian and Tesla are not just in the business of making automobiles, but are playing leading roles in the automotive industry's transition to sustainable energy. Both governments and capital markets have made sustainability a key criterion for actions and investments. Rivian, like Tesla, has sustainability as part of its mission statement.

 

  • Rivian mission statement. "Rivian is on a mission to keep the world adventurous forever. We believe there is a more responsible way to explore the world and are determined to make the transition to sustainable transportation an exciting one. We designed our emissions-free Electric Adventure Vehicles to challenge what's possible."
  • Tesla mission statement. "Tesla’s mission is to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy. Tesla believes the faster the world stops relying on fossil fuels and moves towards a zero-emission future, the better."
Edited by rperez817
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4 hours ago, bzcat said:

Tesla is valued at $700 billion... more than the top 10 car companies in the world combined. 

 

It defies logic but that's just how the capital market works.

 

Like I mentioned before, Ford's investment in Rivian is rather strategic. Ford sells more EV than Rivian and will continue to do so for a long time (probably forever). So Ford's ownership stake in Rivian will force the market to reevaluate Ford in context to Rivian. 

 

Too bad Rivian has the big contract with Amazon and not Ford. Also too bad Rivian is beating Ford to market with BEV pickup and Ford is only producing 15,000 Lightnings in 2022. However, I would buy a Lightning with Ford's dealer network. That will be a problem for Rivian. 

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21 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

 

It's actually very logical. You have to consider that Rivian and Tesla are not just in the business of making automobiles, but are playing leading roles in the automotive industry's transition to sustainable energy. Both governments and capital markets have made sustainability a key criterion for actions and investments. Rivian, like Tesla, has sustainability as part of its mission statement.

 

  • Rivian mission statement. "Rivian is on a mission to keep the world adventurous forever. We believe there is a more responsible way to explore the world and are determined to make the transition to sustainable transportation an exciting one. We designed our emissions-free Electric Adventure Vehicles to challenge what's possible."
  • Tesla mission statement. "Tesla’s mission is to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy. Tesla believes the faster the world stops relying on fossil fuels and moves towards a zero-emission future, the better."

 

The big risk......will the average consumer buy BEV's when they are being produced in huge numbers? So far only upper income, progressive consumers are buying them. And URBAN consumers. Maybe that is why Ford is starting out with 30,000 Mach E's and 15,000 Lightnings with slow build out thereafter. No one really knows if the majority of auto buyers will abandon ICE. My guess is that BEV's will make up 7% of market by 2025 from 2% now, and 15% by 2030. 

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3 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

It's actually very logical. You have to consider that Rivian and Tesla are not just in the business of making automobiles, but are playing leading roles in the automotive industry's transition to sustainable energy. Both governments and capital markets have made sustainability a key criterion for actions and investments. Rivian, like Tesla, has sustainability as part of its mission statement.

 

  • Rivian mission statement. "Rivian is on a mission to keep the world adventurous forever. We believe there is a more responsible way to explore the world and are determined to make the transition to sustainable transportation an exciting one. We designed our emissions-free Electric Adventure Vehicles to challenge what's possible."
  • Tesla mission statement. "Tesla’s mission is to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy. Tesla believes the faster the world stops relying on fossil fuels and moves towards a zero-emission future, the better."

 

Mission statement is not worth the toilet paper it is scribbled on. Tesla makes 95% of its revenue from selling cars or carbon credit from those cars. So let's dispense with the BS that it is anything other than a car company. 

 

The valuation of Tesla means Wall Street believe it will be the only one of 2 or 3 car companies 30 years in the future after the world's vehicle fleet is electrified. If that sounds logical to you, then go and buy some Tesla stock now.

 

The more logical way to look at the car companies' valuation is that some of the top 10 car companies are severely undervalued since more than a handful of them will still be around in 30 years and still outselling Tesla. For example, do you really believe Tesla will outsell VW or Toyota and earn more profit than those two? Do you really believe Tesla will sell more pickup trucks than Ford? Do you really believe Tesla will sell more semi trucks than Daimler? There is no guarantee that Tesla will even reach the top 10 club in terms of volume or profit in 30 years.

Edited by bzcat
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13 hours ago, bzcat said:

The more logical way to look at the car companies' valuation is that some of the top 10 car companies are severely undervalued since more than a handful of them will still be around in 30 years and still outselling Tesla. For example, do you really believe Tesla will outsell VW or Toyota and earn more profit than those two? Do you really believe Tesla will sell more pickup trucks than Ford? Do you really believe Tesla will sell more semi trucks than Daimler? There is no guarantee that Tesla will even reach the top 10 club in terms of volume or profit in 30 years.

 

The one thing that is guaranteed is that Tesla has never been, is not, and will never be a traditional automaker. As Professor Dans said, Tesla's mission can be restated to "anticipate the future, a much better future, and to make it easier for us to think about how to get there". It has been exceptionally successful in doing that and continues to do that. Taking that into consideration, TSLA is undervalued.

 

Rivian also lacks the historical baggage that slows down decision making at incumbent automakers, and has strong potential to be a leader in defining the future of the automotive industry. $80B cap in its S-1? Like you said, that's nothing compared to what it could be worth in the next 3 years.

Edited by rperez817
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22 hours ago, FordBuyer said:

 

Too bad Rivian has the big contract with Amazon and not Ford. Also too bad Rivian is beating Ford to market with BEV pickup and Ford is only producing 15,000 Lightnings in 2022. However, I would buy a Lightning with Ford's dealer network. That will be a problem for Rivian. 

 

I mean, I like Rivian and see it doing well, but how many are they projected to build for 2022?  Right now, it's 0 for any year.

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25 minutes ago, rmc523 said:

 

I mean, I like Rivian and see it doing well, but how many are they projected to build for 2022?  Right now, it's 0 for any year.


Meet the new stock market where companies are evaluated on wishes and dreams rather than sound profit potential.

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11 minutes ago, akirby said:


Meet the new stock market where companies are evaluated on wishes and dreams rather than sound profit potential.

 

Oh I'm well aware lol.  Just pointing out Ford's "only" 15k is pretty much guaranteed, whereas Rivian's numbers (whatever they have projected) are still question marks technically.

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20 minutes ago, jcartwright99 said:

Strangely enough, I am leaning towards a post IPO (dip) buy. I need more information about their Amazon agreement and what (if anything) has been delivered.

 

https://www.geekwire.com/2021/amazon-leads-2-5b-funding-round-rivian-maker-tech-giants-future-electric-delivery-vans/

 



Amazon made the investment through its Climate Pledge Fund, which is aimed at backing companies that accelerate Amazon’s pledge to be net zero carbon across its businesses by 2040. The company previously backed Rivian in 2019 in rounds of $700 million and $1.3 billion, and it’s planning to buy 100,000 electric vans from the automaker for its delivery fleet.

Amazon said last October that it will have 10,000 custom electric delivery vehicles on the road as early as 2022, and all 100,000 by 2030.

 

From what I understand the R1T is in preproduction and goes into full production next month?

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30 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

From what I understand the R1T is in preproduction and goes into full production next month?

 

Yes sir, that is correct. Originally, R1T production was slated to begin earlier this summer, but that was pushed back to September 2021. R1S production kicks off in 2022.

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59 minutes ago, akirby said:

Meet the new stock market where companies are evaluated on wishes and dreams rather than sound profit potential.

 

That's nothing new. Capital markets have always rewarded public companies based on those businesses' "wishes and dreams" combined with sound profit potential. Especially for an IPO. Rivian has all of that, as does Tesla.

Edited by rperez817
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On 8/30/2021 at 7:28 AM, FordBuyer said:

 

Too bad Rivian has the big contract with Amazon and not Ford. Also too bad Rivian is beating Ford to market with BEV pickup and Ford is only producing 15,000 Lightnings in 2022. However, I would buy a Lightning with Ford's dealer network. That will be a problem for Rivian. 

I wonder, Ford pulls out of Rivian products for itself (and Lincoln) so maybe it sees advantage in this 

ahead of the IPO to maximise buy in from other parties and maybe push stock price higher?

Theres a huge up side to Ford holding a share that’s appreciating in value, billions at a time…..

By doing nothing and giving  the R1T a free run,  Ford could wind up making more money.

Ford doing nothing = more profit is music to accountants ears..

Edited by jpd80
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44 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

I wonder, Ford pulls out of Rivian products for itself (and Lincoln) so maybe it sees advantage in this 

ahead of the IPO to maximise buy in from other parties and maybe push stock price higher?

Theres a huge up side to Ford holding a share that’s appreciating in value, billions at a time…..

By doing nothing and giving  the R1T a free run,  Ford could wind up making more money.

Ford doing nothing = more profit is music to accountants ears..

 

I see the R1T and SUV version of it being aimed at the higher end of the market then the Lightening is going to be. It would be a far better fit for Lincoln, but having a BEV Nautilus and Aviator might make slotting it into the Lincoln lineup a bit tough. I also don't see them selling that many of them in the grand scheme of things-The R1T is roughly a midsized pickup and I'm betting its going to be the "worst" selling out of the current 5 on the market due the pricing.  

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16 hours ago, akirby said:


Meet the new stock market where companies are evaluated on wishes and dreams rather than sound profit potential.

Reminds me of what we saw in the .com bubble years, when a stock would drop once a company actually started making a profit because then the P/E could be calculated.

Edited by Gurgeh
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9 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

 

I see the R1T and SUV version of it being aimed at the higher end of the market then the Lightening is going to be. It would be a far better fit for Lincoln, but having a BEV Nautilus and Aviator might make slotting it into the Lincoln lineup a bit tough. I also don't see them selling that many of them in the grand scheme of things-The R1T is roughly a midsized pickup and I'm betting its going to be the "worst" selling out of the current 5 on the market due the pricing.  

All reasons why Ford should not do anything with developing, it’s looking like VW’s MEB is far more cost effective for vehicles like Escape/Corsair to Edge hatchback/ Nautilus, it probably answers all of Ford’s prayers in those segments.

Ford is partnering with Rivian for the supply of mail vans (RHD stripped Transit) doing this is way more lucrative for Ford (supply) and Rivian (profit) not to mention strong dividends and stock prices…

Edited by jpd80
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My stockbroker explained it to me, in simple form, he says Teslas value is really based on transactions of the "cult" members selling and buying and such.  The brokerage firms, stockbrokers, etc are the ones making the money now, based on vaporware....At some point, in one obscure day, out of darkness, something will "click" and suddenly it tanks.  Out of my portofolio I only let him have 5% of "play money" to look or play with different new stocks.  Tesla has never been it... Or even Ford for that matter go figure.  Only reason I have so many shares of stock by default is because shareholder benefits, specially come vehicle buying tile.  Norweigian Cruise Lines is another one with good stockholder benefits. If it's not for that, I wouldn't touch it...Although I'm hearing its done well last few months.

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23 minutes ago, ANTAUS said:

My stockbroker explained it to me, in simple form, he says Teslas value is really based on transactions of the "cult" members selling and buying and such.  The brokerage firms, stockbrokers, etc are the ones making the money now, based on vaporware....At some point, in one obscure day, out of darkness, something will "click" and suddenly it tanks.  Out of my portofolio I only let him have 5% of "play money" to look or play with different new stocks.  Tesla has never been it... Or even Ford for that matter go figure.  Only reason I have so many shares of stock by default is because shareholder benefits, specially come vehicle buying tile.  Norweigian Cruise Lines is another one with good stockholder benefits. If it's not for that, I wouldn't touch it...Although I'm hearing its done well last few months.

It’s also Musk wanting  to  send certain short selling fund managers broke.

 

Market cap value of companies are always dubious as the volume of stock traded

is generally low and not indicative of the true value of the company.

Wall Street loves Tesla as a disruptor, something to throw in the faces of Ford and GM

but the truth is that Tesla is still barely profitable without emission credits……

Ford and GM have real cash behind them and big profit earners to keep funnelling cash

into electric transformation, something Tesla can only dream about….

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Motor Trend posted its first drive review of Rivian R1T and called it "the most remarkable pickup truck we've ever driven". The 2022 Rivian R1T Is the Most Remarkable Pickup We’ve Ever Driven (motortrend.com)

 

The Rivian R1T feels like a vehicle of the future, but it also feels like one very well grounded in the here and now. It hauls and tackles difficult terrain as well as or better than internal combustion pickups, and its combination of on-pavement handling prowess and off-road finesse is simply unmatched in any other current truck. If the Rivian R1T is the future of the pickup truck—and we certainly think it is—then the future cannot come quickly enough.

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23 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

Motor Trend posted its first drive review of Rivian R1T and called it "the most remarkable pickup truck we've ever driven". The 2022 Rivian R1T Is the Most Remarkable Pickup We’ve Ever Driven (motortrend.com)

 

 

 

 

Questions that will need to be answered. What is the range when going off road and also towing?  Rubicon 4Xe went from on road 26 miles all electric to 3 miles on a rocky trail in an unscientific TFL test. Towing for electrics could be the Achilles heal.

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