akirby Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 Why do people confuse share price and market cap with a company’s viability and health? Whether Rivian stock drops by 50% or doubles it has no effect on the company itself. It’s driven more by emotions or short term day traders than long term viability. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 (edited) 7 hours ago, akirby said: Why do people confuse share price and market cap with a company’s viability and health? Whether Rivian stock drops by 50% or doubles it has no effect on the company itself. It’s driven more by emotions or short term day traders than long term viability. This is the same giddy nonsense that occurred during the dot com bubble, Musk has just sold off 10% of his Tesla stock and made off like a bandit. Anyone not looking at that and not realising that “pay day” is coming for the few is deluded, the many small investors will mostly miss out… Tesla is massively over valued, the fact that ratings agencies remain silent shows their complicity and the duplicity of Wall Street to use companies like Tesla to suit their own ends. Analysts keep ignoring the efforts of companies like Ford because they won’t dance to Wall Streets desired wish list of actions… Edited November 12, 2021 by jpd80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deanh Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 On 11/11/2021 at 12:14 PM, FordBuyer said: Where did you hear that? Looks like Ford has hard decision to make....sell your $10 billion stake, keep it and hope for more, or sell part of it and hope remaining shares increase. If they sell, I would imagine Ford will owe IRS billions. customer told me...didn't verify as I didn't really care...but he stated they sold it off and input the cash towards Battery technology.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deanh Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 8 hours ago, rperez817 said: Yes sir mackinaw, amid the ongoing automotive industry revolution, that's inevitable. The most spectacular failures will likely be incumbent automakers who fail to transition to 100% electric vehicles, not Rivian or Tesla. um...no. That's speculative nonsense...full electric is and will remain a small % of total vehicular sales for some time....and its probably writing on the wall that there will be a shortage of the raw materials required ( minerals etc ) for all these wonderful batteries....either that or the price of said minerals ( of which a majority come from Foreign sources ) will be manipulated and utilized in much the same way as Oil was prior to the US becoming independent...oh wait...we've done a complete U turn there...now were dependent on Foreign oil again AND said minerals..... 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FordBuyer Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 1 hour ago, Deanh said: um...no. That's speculative nonsense...full electric is and will remain a small % of total vehicular sales for some time....and its probably writing on the wall that there will be a shortage of the raw materials required ( minerals etc ) for all these wonderful batteries....either that or the price of said minerals ( of which a majority come from Foreign sources ) will be manipulated and utilized in much the same way as Oil was prior to the US becoming independent...oh wait...we've done a complete U turn there...now were dependent on Foreign oil again AND said minerals..... Fracking hasn't been banned....Covid hit and oil demand dropped like a rock in 2020. Now demand has spiked up in 2021 and supply is trying to catch up. And with electrified vehicles making up all September auto sales and still growing, oil producers are cautious in spending tons of money getting more oil out of the ground. Almost every commodity you can name is going through this difficult process including auto production. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FordBuyer Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 9 minutes ago, FordBuyer said: Fracking hasn't been banned....Covid hit and oil demand dropped like a rock in 2020. Now demand has spiked up in 2021 and supply is trying to catch up. And with electrified vehicles making up all September auto sales and still growing, oil producers are cautious in spending tons of money getting more oil out of the ground. Almost every commodity you can name is going through this difficult process including auto production. Sorry, electrified vehicles made up 10% of total September auto sales. My guess is that by 2025 electrified vehicles sales will be over 50% at Ford. Ford has reported that its electrified sales are going up exponentially. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackinaw Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 30 minutes ago, FordBuyer said: Sorry, electrified vehicles made up 10% of total September auto sales...... You have to better explain this. U.S. or the entire world? BEV's and/or hybrids? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 37 minutes ago, mackinaw said: You have to better explain this. U.S. or the entire world? BEV's and/or hybrids? Ford is blurring the message by saying electrified vehicles, electric vehicle sales are still relatively tiny, especially when you take out Tesla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FordBuyer Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 1 hour ago, mackinaw said: You have to better explain this. U.S. or the entire world? BEV's and/or hybrids? U.S. sales and electrified means hybrids, plugins andnd full electrics. I would bet Europe is higher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmc523 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 2 hours ago, FordBuyer said: Sorry, electrified vehicles made up 10% of total September auto sales. My guess is that by 2025 electrified vehicles sales will be over 50% at Ford. Ford has reported that its electrified sales are going up exponentially. Is that 10% of Ford sales? Or industry? What's the percentage of pure BEVs? For reference, October sales for Ford, Mach E was 1.62% of sales.....YTD, Mach E is 1.38% of sales. Your "electrified" percentage guestimate for '25 may be true, but I still see pure BEVs being a small, but growing percentage of that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 (edited) 2021 Sales of EVs is expected to be 4% of US sales, 20% of Chinese sales and 23% of European sales. Keep in mind that those figures are distorted higher because of suppressed ICE sales, China sales are also distorted by government will to push clean and green BEV narrative, even if charging increases coal burning… (the last point is hilarious hypocrisy) Edited November 13, 2021 by jpd80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ausrutherford Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 8 hours ago, rmc523 said: Is that 10% of Ford sales? Or industry? What's the percentage of pure BEVs? For reference, October sales for Ford, Mach E was 1.62% of sales.....YTD, Mach E is 1.38% of sales. Your "electrified" percentage guestimate for '25 may be true, but I still see pure BEVs being a small, but growing percentage of that. By 2025, Ford will have enough capacity to make the Lightning 10-15% of F-Series sales alone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gurgeh Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 20 hours ago, akirby said: Why do people confuse share price and market cap with a company’s viability and health? Whether Rivian stock drops by 50% or doubles it has no effect on the company itself. It’s driven more by emotions or short term day traders than long term viability. As of close of business yesterday, Rivian's total market cap was higher than GM's. Makes sense to me... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twintornados Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 2 hours ago, Gurgeh said: As of close of business yesterday, Rivian's total market cap was higher than GM's. Makes sense to me... But, compared to Tesla market cap...it is a mere shadow of it... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 2 hours ago, Gurgeh said: As of close of business yesterday, Rivian's total market cap was higher than GM's. Makes sense to me... 46 minutes ago, twintornados said: But, compared to Tesla market cap...it is a mere shadow of it... Top 4 U.S. automakers by market cap as of COB 11/12/2021. TSLA, $1,023.10B RIVN, $110.83B GM, $92.05B F, $77.93B Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FordBuyer Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 50 minutes ago, rperez817 said: Top 4 U.S. automakers by market cap as of COB 11/12/2021. TSLA, $1,023.10B RIVN, $110.83B GM, $92.05B F, $77.93B I don't believe Rivian has shipped even one vehicle yet and where is the nearest Rivian dealer? At the rate of assembling 2 vehicles/day, it will take many months to get that OK to ship notice. A lot of hype, but no meat yet. Meanwhile, Ford is only a few months away from launching Lightning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Market cap is just the current price. The current price of some Broncos is $75k+. Do you really think they’ll be worth that in 3 years? Tesla and Rivian are overpriced based on hype and emotions. They may or may not live up to those expectations. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 1 hour ago, FordBuyer said: I don't believe Rivian has shipped even one vehicle yet and where is the nearest Rivian dealer? Rivian is using a direct to consumer model for retail consumers. Configuring, reserving, and ordering Rivian vehicles is done online. Rivian has a team of "personal guides" to provide assistance both before and after the sale. Additionally, Rivian Field Specialists will coordinate delivery at the customer's home or another location of the customer's choosing, where they will also pick up a trade-in vehicle if applicable. Purchasing - Rivian Rivian did or is in the process of doing test drive events called "First Mile Event Tour" in the following locations for customers that pre-ordered a R1T or R1S. Normal, Illinois New York City Los Angeles San Francisco Additionally, Rivian opened what they called a "Hub" in Venice, California. This facility is not a traditional car dealership, but a meeting place that includes educational exhibits on Rivian products and the company's vision. No test drives are available at the Venice Hub. In terms of production, here is what Rivian said in its S-1 filing Amendment No. 2. Amendment No. 2 to Form S-1 (sec.gov) "In the consumer market, we launched the R1 platform with our first-generation consumer vehicle, the R1T, a two-row five-passenger pickup truck, and began making customer deliveries in September 2021. As of September 30, 2021, we produced 12 R1Ts and delivered 11 R1Ts, and as of October 31, 2021, we produced 180 R1Ts and delivered 156 R1Ts. Nearly all of these vehicles were delivered to Rivian employees, and we expect to ramp deliveries to third-party customers as we increase our production rate. We plan to launch and commence customer deliveries for the R1S, a three-row seven-passenger sports utility vehicle (“SUV”) in December 2021 following the completion of ongoing vehicle validation and all required testing. By the end of 2021, we intend to produce approximately 1,200 R1Ts and 25 R1Ss and deliver approximately 1,000 R1Ts and 15 R1Ss." 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 RIVN share price peaked at $169.70 earlier this morning, resulting in market cap almost $150 billion. That surpasses VW, whose market cap is about $140 billion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmc523 Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 22 minutes ago, rperez817 said: RIVN share price peaked at $169.70 earlier this morning, resulting in market cap almost $150 billion. That surpasses VW, whose market cap is about $140 billion. I didn't put a ton in, but my investment is doing well so far lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 1 hour ago, rperez817 said: RIVN share price peaked at $169.70 earlier this morning, resulting in market cap almost $150 billion. That surpasses VW, whose market cap is about $140 billion. Your obsession with market cap is becoming tiresome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gurgeh Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 (edited) ...and today Lucid Air shares surged up to a market cap of $89.9 billion, surpassing Ford. Hey, I think they are even doing better than Game Stop! https://www-cnbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/11/16/lucid-ceo-says-the-company-could-eventually-be-valued-like-tesla.html?amp_js_v=a6&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASCAAgM%3D#aoh=16371096926243&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From %1%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnbc.com%2F2021%2F11%2F16%2Flucid-ceo-says-the-company-could-eventually-be-valued-like-tesla.html "Lucid Group's market value blew past Ford Motor on Tuesday to $89.9 billion following a 24% runup in the EV start-up's stock price after executives told investors that reservations for its first vehicles had jumped and that its production plans for 2022 were still on track. "The surge in the stock price also brought Lucid close to eclipsing General Motors, which has a market cap of $90.9 billion." Edited November 17, 2021 by Gurgeh 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slemke Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Ford’s investment in Rivian (4th largest shareholder) is now worth $14.3B. Meanwhile Ford was down today. Rivian, Lucid, and Tesla are momentum stocks. They aren’t trading on fundamentals, just that people think the stock will keep going up so they continue to invest. No idea when or if the bubble will pop. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 And in 6 or 12 months it could be worth half as much or zero. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slemke Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 10 minutes ago, akirby said: And in 6 or 12 months it could be worth half as much or zero. Or 4x. Nobody really knows. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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