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Edge/Nautilus Dead for '23


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26 minutes ago, Trader 10 said:

You make some good points. Ford has plenty of capacity to build a new Edge if they had decided to - the Escape plant could probably turn out 100,000/year and Flat Rock probably double that amount. Ford isn’t capacity constrained- the issue is excess capacity. 


For the hundredth time - Flat Rock can’t build utilities!

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9 hours ago, ESP08 said:

 

Escape is a cut and dried compact SUV. 

Escape is to Edge what the RAV4 is to Highlander over at Toyota... or Focus was to Fusion a few years ago at Ford.  

 

Killing Edge leaves a pretty glaring hole in Ford's lineup.   

 

A shortened 2-row version of the RWD would Explorer be a great replacement.  

Edge's biggest problem right now is that it is too close in price to Explorer.  

 

Highlander has grown to Explorer size.  As others have mentioned, Venza is more size appropriate to Edge now for Toyota.

 

7 hours ago, akirby said:

The new Escape is bigger and Bronco Sport is big inside.  The specs are a lot closer than some of you realize.  The only significant difference is shoulder room .

 

dimension.    Escape.   Edge.   Bronco Sport

head room.    40.           40.2.     41.5

leg room.       42.4         42.6.      42.4

hip room.       55.2.        55.9.     55.2

shoulder.        57.6         60.3.     57.3

 

One thing to consider too - you've mentioned "space saving" ideas that were applied to Escape to give it a larger interior.  Those same methods could be applied to Edge too to make it even more spacious.

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On 9/1/2021 at 5:57 PM, fuzzymoomoo said:


There also has to be some kind of downtime for retooling, and I'm guessing they expect that to take at least 6 months but probably more like a year just reading tea leaves. This is as big of a plant transformation as converting MAP from FWD/Unibody construction to RWD/4x4/BOF construction was. The difference is they can afford to take their time with it even more so than they could with MAP, likely to the dismay of UNIFOR. So if MY2022 is the last, assuming they stretch production out as long as they can that puts it ending late CY2022. Figure 6-12 months for retooling and the first preproduction units for these new BEVs should hypothetically be coming off the line sometime in the second half of CY2023, and would make them MY2024. Not that unreasonable TBH. 
 

Im also wondering if the timeline for these new BEVs is shorter than we all thought. They've been bragging (rightfully so) that development time for Maverick was cut in half from the old normal so it stands to reason that it's only getting shorter and/or they’re much farther along than we all thought. We are already seeing mules after all. 
 


 

 

People at OAC have been speculating that retooling will be moved up, we've been told nothing yet. I believe we will run til sometime in late 2023, we still have another contract to deal with which I believe will take place before retooling. So my prediction is we will balance out late 23. We were told at contract retooling could take 5-16 months. 16 months is ridiculous unless they’re gonna demolish and rebuild some of the plant. I know they’re obviously gonna tear most of it out but Ford can move way quicker than that.

Edited by Oacjay98
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All those years ago when Edge arrived, it was priced closer to Explorer than Escape, just below it actually

and for many years, it knocked out decent enough sales at near Explorer prices.

 

The problem now is that both Escape and Explorer have evolved into much better vehicles, so for many

buyers, the choice is now those two with Edge being seen as less value than say, a “two row Explorer”.

It surprising that the CD6  Edge wasn’t part of the Explorer project and repositioned as Explorer Sport…

We saw similar with CD4 MKZ and Continental, separated by many years and lots of expense  yet both coulda been LWB/SWB cousins saving Ford tons of development costs.

Edited by jpd80
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22 hours ago, akirby said:


You’re comparing to the old Escape not the new one.  It’s bigger.

 

This is true. And the space utilization comment regarding the sliding seats is a good point. Either way, the Edge cargo area is a good deal larger than either Escape model -- by ~5 cu. ft when comparing a non-hybrid with the seats slid all the way forward.

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8 hours ago, jpd80 said:

All those years ago when Edge arrived, it was priced closer to Explorer than Escape, just below it actually

and for many years, it knocked out decent enough sales at near Explorer prices.

 

The problem now is that both Escape and Explorer have evolved into much better vehicles, so for many

buyers, the choice is now those two with Edge being seen as less value than say, a “two row Explorer”.

It surprising that the CD6  Edge wasn’t part of the Explorer project and repositioned as Explorer Sport…

We saw similar with CD4 MKZ and Continental, separated by many years and lots of expense  yet both coulda been LWB/SWB cousins saving Ford tons of development costs.

 

We discussed this before. CD6 Edge made sense for North America but not elsewhere so Ford Europe and China were both against it. And Mark Fields ultimately backed Bronco as the US-centric midsize utility over CD6 Edge. The math didn't workout for two unique North America mid size utilities.

 

And then Hackett and Farley both thought they could get the Mondeo/Evos to replace both Fusion and Edge in North America so no big urgency to do another C2 Edge. China decides to go ahead with its own C2 3-row CUV and that became Equator. Fast forward to 2021, it appears Mondeo/Evos is not happening for North America and Edge is still without replacement. 

 

The competitors all sensed Ford's weakness here and they are adding products just waiting for Ford (which still leads the segment in the US) to bail. It's kind of slow motion trainwreck if you are a Ford fan... we've seen this movie before: compact pickup (the OG Ranger), minivan, compact car, midsize sedan etc.

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3 hours ago, bzcat said:

 

We discussed this before. CD6 Edge made sense for North America but not elsewhere so Ford Europe and China were both against it. And Mark Fields ultimately backed Bronco as the US-centric midsize utility over CD6 Edge. The math didn't workout for two unique North America mid size utilities.

 

And then Hackett and Farley both thought they could get the Mondeo/Evos to replace both Fusion and Edge in North America so no big urgency to do another C2 Edge. China decides to go ahead with its own C2 3-row CUV and that became Equator. Fast forward to 2021, it appears Mondeo/Evos is not happening for North America and Edge is still without replacement. 

 

The competitors all sensed Ford's weakness here and they are adding products just waiting for Ford (which still leads the segment in the US) to bail. It's kind of slow motion trainwreck if you are a Ford fan... we've seen this movie before: compact pickup (the OG Ranger), minivan, compact car, midsize sedan etc.

I agree there was too much shifting sand for Edge to survive, what we’re seeing now is exactly the same exit strategy Ford used with the Fusion, just simplify ordering to AWD and profitable trim mix to the inevitable end. That’s OK too because IMO, Edge did it’s job as a near Explorer priced utility that filled an area few competitors recognised.


2600 odd Nautilus sales last month when all other Lincoln sales were suppressed, so Nautilus still has a role an if Ford is smart, they can prime Edge for its final years and give UNIFOR something to build until MEB.

 

 

Edited by jpd80
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30 minutes ago, akirby said:

With Corsair moving to OAP as a BEV does that free up enough capacity in Louisville for a C2 Nautilus hev/phev?
 

The other problem for Edge and Nautilus is they use the only transverse 2.7L.  No other C2 products have a V6.

2.7 was dropped from Edge but the 2.0 EB is still going, Edge and Nautilus are CD4.

Corsair BEV is planned for CY2025, that’s still three years away….GE2 Explorer/Aviator before that.

Edited by jpd80
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12 hours ago, jpd80 said:

2.7 was dropped from Edge but the 2.0 EB is still going, Edge and Nautilus are CD4.

Corsair BEV is planned for CY2025, that’s still three years away….GE2 Explorer/Aviator before that.


They didn’t drop the 2.7 - it’s standard on edge ST.

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4 hours ago, akirby said:


At least.  Or it was before they stopped building them.  Explorer ST was a similarly high percentage of sales but maybe not that high).

It looks to be around 10% currently, I wonder if Explorer ST has scooped some of those buyers, problem with that is that Explorer ST is about $6k more expensive but offers more horsepower……(sorry, I can’t get any more info)

Dealers would be able to give us a better snapshot, maybe covid stoppages have really messed with Edge sales mix……

 

currently about 4500 Edges with dealers but just over 400 of them are STs and an equal number of ST Lines…..I won’t draw any conclusions at the moment until we see how  sales go……

 

 

Just saw that there’s about 6800 Explorers with dealers, only 700 STs…….there goes my theory…….

 

Sorry guys, I’ll pull back on my earlier statements, inventories are low and trim mix obviously distorted by last months sales ripping the guts out of inventory while production was stopped/slowed.

Edited by jpd80
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7 hours ago, akirby said:


Its 25% of sales and the highest ATP.  

 

I'm struggling with trying to understand how you arrived at that 25% of sales figure.  Since Ford does not publish sales by trim level, and the only published numbers (by FordAuthority in 2020) mentioned much lower, like 13%, would you please share the context or documentation to support your statement?

 

In 2019, when we were shopping for our Edge, my wife test-drove a ST, and REALLY liked it.  But, I just couldn't spend the premium, much less afford the up-coming speeding tickets she would be getting,,,,,

 

HRG

Edited by HotRunrGuy
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49 minutes ago, HotRunrGuy said:

 

I'm struggling with trying to understand how you arrived at that 25% of sales figure.  Since Ford does not publish sales by trim level, and the only published numbers (by FordAuthority in 2020) mentioned much lower, like 13%, would you please share the context or documentation to support your statement?

 

In 2019, when we were shopping for our Edge, my wife test-drove a ST, and REALLY liked it.  But, I just couldn't spend the premium, much less afford the up-coming speeding tickets she would be getting,,,,,

 

HRG


It was reported by Ford at one point shortly after the 2019 ST debuted (renamed from the sport).  I don’t know if it’s still true.

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On 9/2/2021 at 9:59 AM, akirby said:


You’re comparing to the old Escape not the new one.  It’s bigger.

Not decisively. The 2020 Escape Hybrid my Father owns is only slightly bigger and arguably more versatile than the last genetation.

Edited by Hugh
I messed up big time
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I owned the first iteration of the Edge with the v6 and the 2015 escape. 2.0 liter eco boost.  The escape pulls my 19 ft center consul  Eastern so much more comfortably then the edge ever did even thought they had the same tow rating.  The edge was the superior highway travel cruiser but we rarely needed that function.  On trips to our summer house in Maine the escape also delivered the fuel economy. If the interior of the new escape is indeed improved what role does the Edge occupy that can’t be filled with the escape or explorer?

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3 hours ago, pictor said:

I owned the first iteration of the Edge with the v6 and the 2015 escape. 2.0 liter eco boost.  The escape pulls my 19 ft center consul  Eastern so much more comfortably then the edge ever did even thought they had the same tow rating.  The edge was the superior highway travel cruiser but we rarely needed that function.  On trips to our summer house in Maine the escape also delivered the fuel economy. If the interior of the new escape is indeed improved what role does the Edge occupy that can’t be filled with the escape or explorer?

In my case, less Luxury Tax compared to the Explorer ST I was looking at. I frankly don't like the Escape's look now (I hoped there'd be an ST version as well). I wouldn't have been happy. That said, I also felt  a wee pretentious now owning a new ride built at OAC. 

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