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Ford's EV push, NBC exclusive


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10 hours ago, FordBuyer said:

 

The article said F-Series, not F-150. No one even knows the sales volume of Lightning yet other than the orders so far. "F-Series" could always use extra plant if BEV sales take off. Farley says he has hard time sleeping at night worrying about how many want expensive electric vehicles that are unaffordable for many.

 

And he should IMO.  I think a ,lot of the current hype is I think just "candy" to keep the "industry analysts" happy to feed the stock price.  While the lemmings are running toward the cliff, what is being done about our power grid?  Not much I'm afraid.  And while China is free to build coal fired plants, we do nothing but shut ours down.  And power transmission?  Every time a new transmission line (from Canada) is proposed, there is  nothing but opposition.

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12 hours ago, FordBuyer said:

 

No, the new plant is for Super Duty electric pickups. Dearborn remains as home to gas and electric F150. 

 

However, next Ford/UAW contract talks should be interesting with this announcement as TN and KY electric workers get to decide if they want union representation or not. 

Exactly!! It’s quite obvious that it’s for future super duty ev production!

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1 hour ago, Oacjay98 said:

Exactly!! It’s quite obvious that it’s for future super duty ev production!

 

Too much capacity for Super Duty alone. Plus, this plant will build the new skateboard chassis, not the BOF Lightning chassis. I would think there would be enough capacity (at least initially) to build both EV models (F150 and Super Duty) on the skateboard - don't forget the possibility of EV Expy/Navi on the skateboard, while still producing the BOF versions at the existing plants. In addition, there could even be 'not-yet-imagined' models planned for the EV chassis. Interesting times.

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It's too early to know, but I'd love to find out where Ford intend to source the raw materials for the battery plant(s) in Tennessee and in Kentucky. It would be awesome if they were able to use the river system to transport the raw materials to the vicinity of the respective plants. The relatively central location of both sites really helps to minimize freight costs to/from most of the plants in Ford's EV system - for example to OAC for their batteries once the plant is converted. Freight cost is one of those hidden costs that can really help a facility to earn its keep if held in check.

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2 hours ago, Bob Rosadini said:

And he should IMO.  I think a ,lot of the current hype is I think just "candy" to keep the "industry analysts" happy to feed the stock price.  While the lemmings are running toward the cliff, what is being done about our power grid?  Not much I'm afraid.  And while China is free to build coal fired plants, we do nothing but shut ours down.  And power transmission?  Every time a new transmission line (from Canada) is proposed, there is  nothing but opposition.

I think the EV movement is a lot like the all-front-wheel-drive and diesel movements of the early 1980s.  I think that the industry would be very lucky to get to 20% EV sales by 2030.  It is curious that GM and Ford are setting up separate buildings for their EV trucks.  If they were so confident in the sales of Evs wouldn't they just convert the truck plants the already have? 

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20 minutes ago, Footballfan said:

 If they were so confident in the sales of Evs wouldn't they just convert the truck plants the already have? 


No because that transition won’t happen overnight.  You don’t walk away from a cash cow like that.  You run them in parallel until one is no longer needed.

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19 minutes ago, akirby said:

No because that transition won’t happen overnight.  You don’t walk away from a cash cow like that.  You run them in parallel until one is no longer needed.

 

The manufacturer(s) that handle the ICE/EV transition the best, will be the most successful.

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1 hour ago, Footballfan said:

I think the EV movement is a lot like the all-front-wheel-drive and diesel movements of the early 1980s.  I think that the industry would be very lucky to get to 20% EV sales by 2030.  It is curious that GM and Ford are setting up separate buildings for their EV trucks.  If they were so confident in the sales of Evs wouldn't they just convert the truck plants the already have? 

 

Your ignoring the elephant in the room-several countries and states are mandating BEVs by 2035, if not earlier. 

 

There is going to be a transition period from ICE to BEV starting in the next 5-10 years. Not to mention alot of changes/improvements to how they are built.

And your FWD 1980s argument sucks-by 1995, the vast majority of cars sold in the US where FWD....pretty much the same timeline we are looking at now. 

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12 minutes ago, Footballfan said:

I think the EV movement is a lot like the all-front-wheel-drive and diesel movements of the early 1980s.  I think that the industry would be very lucky to get to 20% EV sales by 2030.  It is curious that GM and Ford are setting up separate buildings for their EV trucks.  If they were so confident in the sales of Evs wouldn't they just convert the truck plants the already have? 


It is far easier to build from the ground up than try to retro an old plant. You're stuck with the plant layout and structure style which is not as optimal as new construction is built with electric vehicles in mind. Even if that is okay you still have to stop production and rehab the plant so you're losing months or a year of production plus the possibility of massive launch problems as there is revenue being lost everyday that plant isn't up. You also have the ramp up and ramp down of production as the market shifts from gas to electric.

You'll have over 20% just because the government is just going to mandate it; can't buy a new gas powered vehicle when they don't exist. Add in $80+ a barrel oil, $4 and $5 gas pushes people electric real fast.

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1 hour ago, mackinaw said:

 

The manufacturer(s) that handle the ICE/EV transition the best, will be the most successful.

 

Good point. Those who transition too fast will suffer. Those who transition too slow will suffer. Pretty tricky stuff. Ditto with the transition from fossil fuel to alternative energy. Europe is finding that out as winter sets in

shortly.

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43 minutes ago, jasonj80 said:


It is far easier to build from the ground up than try to retro an old plant. You're stuck with the plant layout and structure style which is not as optimal as new construction is built with electric vehicles in mind. Even if that is okay you still have to stop production and rehab the plant so you're losing months or a year of production plus the possibility of massive launch problems as there is revenue being lost everyday that plant isn't up. You also have the ramp up and ramp down of production as the market shifts from gas to electric.

You'll have over 20% just because the government is just going to mandate it; can't buy a new gas powered vehicle when they don't exist. Add in $80+ a barrel oil, $4 and $5 gas pushes people electric real fast.

 

I believe Ford is only building ONE new assembly plant; the other three are battery and battery recycling plants. So Ford will have reliable battery supply as so far Ford has been constrained by battery related parts. Farley is correcting this long festering supply constraint. 

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1 hour ago, silvrsvt said:



And your FWD 1980s argument sucks-by 1995, the vast majority of cars sold in the US where FWD....pretty much the same timeline we are looking at now. 

Really?  Look at Ford during that time.  The Taurus/Sable was originally designed to be Ford's biggest car, and the 1988 Continental was originally designed to be the Town Car replacement.  These cars were selling so well Ford decided to keep them and the Town Car was Ford's cash cow for many years.  Of course you cannot forget about the Ford Probe designed as a replacement for the Mustang.  We see how that went. 

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1 hour ago, jasonj80 said:


It is far easier to build from the ground up than try to retro an old plant. You're stuck with the plant layout and structure style which is not as optimal as new construction is built with electric vehicles in mind. Even if that is okay you still have to stop production and rehab the plant so you're losing months or a year of production plus the possibility of massive launch problems as there is revenue being lost everyday that plant isn't up. You also have the ramp up and ramp down of production as the market shifts from gas to electric.

You'll have over 20% just because the government is just going to mandate it; can't buy a new gas powered vehicle when they don't exist. Add in $80+ a barrel oil, $4 and $5 gas pushes people electric real fast.

Mandates are only as good as who is in office.  No government or business can shove down the throats products customers do not want to buy.  I am sure when a Republican is elected president again, there will be an about face as far as regs are concerned.  

 

Regarding gas being 4-5 a gallon, if EVs gain any traction, the price of oil will collapse. 

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21 minutes ago, Footballfan said:

Really?  Look at Ford during that time.  The Taurus/Sable was originally designed to be Ford's biggest car, and the 1988 Continental was originally designed to be the Town Car replacement.  These cars were selling so well Ford decided to keep them and the Town Car was Ford's cash cow for many years.  Of course you cannot forget about the Ford Probe designed as a replacement for the Mustang.  We see how that went. 

Your cherry picking data-

 

In 1980, Ford had one FWD product in the NA market-the Fiesta from Europe. By 1995 it only had 3 cars with RWD, with the T-bird dying out soon afterwards. The only reason the Panther stayed around was it was dirt cheap to make and make a profit on. 

17 minutes ago, Footballfan said:

Mandates are only as good as who is in office.  No government or business can shove down the throats products customers do not want to buy.  I am sure when a Republican is elected president again, there will be an about face as far as regs are concerned.  

 

Regarding gas being 4-5 a gallon, if EVs gain any traction, the price of oil will collapse. 

 

So adding Catalytic converters and CAFE didn't do that in the early 1970s? It killed off the performance market till the mid 1980s. 

 

As for the price of oil-Roughly 60% of a barrel of oil is used for other things that aren't gasoline. The price might drop but it is not going to collapse. Not to mention most of that money goes to places that are unsavory to start with. 

 

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9 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

Your cherry picking data-

 

In 1980, Ford had one FWD product in the NA market-the Fiesta from Europe. By 1995 it only had 3 cars with RWD, with the T-bird dying out soon afterwards. The only reason the Panther stayed around was it was dirt cheap to make and make a profit on. 

 

So adding Catalytic converters and CAFE didn't do that in the early 1970s? It killed off the performance market till the mid 1980s. 

 

As for the price of oil-Roughly 60% of a barrel of oil is used for other things that aren't gasoline. The price might drop but it is not going to collapse. Not to mention most of that money goes to places that are unsavory to start with. 

 

 

Again, only about 35% of a barrel of oil goes to making gas....the rest goes to making plastic, asphalt products and on and on and on. So oil will always be with us in some form or another. No one living on this forum will see the end of fossil fuel. Maybe peak oil has or has not passed, but either way it ain't going away. God knows, our Ford vehicles are supposedly filled with "cheap looking" plastic parts. 

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1 hour ago, Footballfan said:

Mandates are only as good as who is in office.  No government or business can shove down the throats products customers do not want to buy.  I am sure when a Republican is elected president again, there will be an about face as far as regs are concerned.  

 

Regarding gas being 4-5 a gallon, if EVs gain any traction, the price of oil will collapse. 

 

Won't make a difference as nothing changed the last time Republicans were in office; there was a bunch of tree shaking but nothing changed. Add to it that California Emission rules now govern over 50% of the new car sales and as more states adopt them that number will only go higher leaving little reason to invest in ICE.

 

1 hour ago, FordBuyer said:

 

I believe Ford is only building ONE new assembly plant; the other three are battery and battery recycling plants. So Ford will have reliable battery supply as so far Ford has been constrained by battery related parts. Farley is correcting this long festering supply constraint. 


Ford will have 4 Electric Assembly plants mid-decade, Rouge, Oakville, Cuautitlan, Tennessee.  The New Battery plants will also give Ford enough supply for 1 million electric vehicles that is on top of the 500,000 vehicles the already announced plants can produce. ~1.5 million battery vehicles for the NA Market by 2027. 

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22 minutes ago, jasonj80 said:

 

Won't make a difference as nothing changed the last time Republicans were in office; there was a bunch of tree shaking but nothing changed. Add to it that California Emission rules now govern over 50% of the new car sales and as more states adopt them that number will only go higher leaving little reason to invest in ICE.

 


Ford will have 4 Electric Assembly plants mid-decade, Rouge, Oakville, Cuautitlan, Tennessee.  The New Battery plants will also give Ford enough supply for 1 million electric vehicles that is on top of the 500,000 vehicles the already announced plants can produce. ~1.5 million battery vehicles for the NA Market by 2027. 

The next generation of Explorer will have  BEV edition as will the Lincoln Aviator.  There is a major redesign coming for the Escape and Lincoln Corsair in 2025.  There are already PHEV variants of both those vehicles.  Most likely, there will be BEV variants with this redesign.

 

Farley is a lot more forward thinking than any of his predecessors.  There is still the investment in Rivian that was supposed to produce a BEV for Lincoln.  Ford also has a partnership with VW to use their BEV global architecture.  I believe there are going to be brand new BEV models as well as several models that are currently ICE that will be simultaneously ICE and BEV for a period of time until the platforms can be developed to be more efficient as BEV only.  How quickly this switch happens with the consumer remains to be seen but Ford's two BEV vehicles are sold out for two years running with only the Mustang Mach E being delivered.  Waiting on the consumer switch would be a huge and possibly fatal error.

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21 hours ago, Footballfan said:

You have to admit with idiots like Whitmer too busy playing politics, and Dingell and Tlaib always bitching about the pollution the plants make in their district, Michigan is not the best pro business state. 

Yeah that's what I've heard. The economy in Utah is booming right now, I believe it's currently experiencing the greatest amount of growth in the nation currently, or close to it. That's largely due to the very business friendly policies our government has established. 

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I am a little disappointed that they had two separate media events today, and they didn't provide any teasers about upcoming electrified products besides the lightning. Discussing factory plans is cool and everything, but it would have been cooler if they were like, here's a shadowy teaser of some cool upcoming performance evs. Or something of that nature.

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1 hour ago, DeluxeStang said:

I am a little disappointed that they had two separate media events today, and they didn't provide any teasers about upcoming electrified products besides the lightning. Discussing factory plans is cool and everything, but it would have been cooler if they were like, here's a shadowy teaser of some cool upcoming performance evs. Or something of that nature.


Its still too far out...lets not repeat the Bronco ?

 

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2 hours ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

Cops love them 

 

Sometimes I wonder its because its just because its the only thing they've known and lots of people don't like change....if your talking about cops alone and not the Police dept that was buying them and it allowed them to reuse the gear they had in them for 20+ years ?

 

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40 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

Sometimes I wonder its because its just because its the only thing they've known and lots of people don't like change....if your talking about cops alone and not the Police dept that was buying them and it allowed them to reuse the gear they had in them for 20+ years ?

 

That was a strong part of the Ford strategy of loading up CVPI sales to the gills and not worrying about Explorer PI sales exactly because a lot of the equipment could reused.

Funny but that kept GM and FCA out of Ford’s sales patch for most of last decade.

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1 hour ago, silvrsvt said:

Sometimes I wonder its because its just because its the only thing they've known and lots of people don't like change....if your talking about cops alone and not the Police dept that was buying them and it allowed them to reuse the gear they had in them for 20+ years ?

 

Year's back, I had the chance to tour the Motor Transport Division (MTD) garage for the State of Michigan in Lansing.  MTD supplies motor vehicles for all State employees, including State Police.  They do repairs too.  They literally had racks of door panels, hoods, trunk lids, etc. for Crown Vics lined up in one section of the building.  That was one reason why cops, and administrators, liked the Crown Vic, lots of available parts and easy to fix.  

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