Electric Vehicle Discussion Thread - Ford Related

[FordBuyer]

5 hours ago, akirby said:

That’s somewhat short sighted and not necessarily a good business decision.   The profits to invest in EVs are coming from ICE vehicles for the next several years.  You don’t walk away from sure profits for future promises, but you do need to be prepared for the future shift.  That’s why they cancelled cars so they could focus on both the money makers now and invest in future BEVs at the same time.

 

I do think anything new has to at least be a hybrid. I think what Ford is doing with F150 is smart.  Offer ICE, HEV and BEV versions and let the market dictate the mix.  That maximizes profit and allows them to take advantage of wherever the market goes.  I think you’ll see the same with explorer and escape and eventually Ranger, Bronco and Maverick.

 

This is a phased transition not a flash cut regardless of what the politicians say.

 

A Ford executive said today that ICE is still very viable and part of Ford business plan going forward. It will be many years before charging stations stand out like gas stations. Personally, I would like to see all Ford vehicles electrified in 2 short years, but I'm realistic and know that is not going to happen. I'm just happy Ford is near the front among the major auto companies and not playing catchup like many. 

[Willwll313wll]

27 minutes ago, FordBuyer said:

 

A Ford executive said today that ICE is still very viable 

 

Edited November 17, 2021 by Willwll313wll

[rperez817]

23 minutes ago, FordBuyer said:

I'm just happy Ford is near the front among the major auto companies and not playing catchup like many. 

 

Yes sir FordBuyer. Even though Ford still has a lot of legacy baggage from the "old world" of the automotive industry, their current business strategy is finally making inroads into the "new world". That's a refreshing change from the Ford of 5 years ago.

[Stray Kat]

Is Farley the driving force here? I know Bill Ford has always had an eye on environmental issues. What do you think the dynamic of Ford’s change of heart are. Is it enough do you think?

[akirby]

11 minutes ago, Stray Kat said:

Is Farley the driving force here? I know Bill Ford has always had an eye on environmental issues. What do you think the dynamic of Ford’s change of heart are. Is it enough do you think?

 

The driving force is profits and compliance.  BEVs are finally at the point they can be more widely adopted with home charging and the prices and volumes allow healthy profits.  And the writing is on the wall with regulations forcing BEVs starting in Europe.

[bzcat]

14 minutes ago, Stray Kat said:

Is Farley the driving force here? I know Bill Ford has always had an eye on environmental issues. What do you think the dynamic of Ford’s change of heart are. Is it enough do you think?

 

Ford finally has enlightened management that can see where the industry is headed.

 

Toyota is the last hold out on BEV. Now that Toyota has acknowledged reality, the entire industry is moving to BEV.

[rperez817]

45 minutes ago, Stray Kat said:

Is Farley the driving force here? I know Bill Ford has always had an eye on environmental issues. What do you think the dynamic of Ford’s change of heart are. Is it enough do you think?

 

Farley is definitely a driving force. Additionally, his predecessor as Ford CEO Jim Hackett laid the groundwork for Ford to embrace a future defined by 100% electric vehicles.

 

In terms of the dynamic of Ford's change of heart, bzcat and akirby mentioned regulatory and financial aspects of the global automotive industry overall. Focusing just on Ford, Jim Farley himself is a visionary. In a recent internal meeting at Ford, he asserted that Tesla does EV far better than anyone else, and Ford must respect its rival. Farley said "if we’re going to succeed, we can’t ignore this competition anymore." Of course, Farley is absolutely correct.

 

Is it enough? Hard to tell at this point. If in the next 2 to 5 years Ford achieves milestones related to the company's transition to EV and phasing out ICE faster than expected, that will be a good gauge.

Edited November 17, 2021 by rperez817

[llinthicum1]

I think it will be a mix of ICE, Hybrid, and BEV for the foreseeable  future.   Battery technology is changing and will look differently by end of this decade (e.g., solid state batteries, faster charging times, farther range, more charging stations, etc.).    Although, the migration to BEVs is well underway, it's probably not going to happen as fast as some of us want.  

[bzcat]

24 minutes ago, llinthicum1 said:

I think it will be a mix of ICE, Hybrid, and BEV for the foreseeable  future.   Battery technology is changing and will look differently by end of this decade (e.g., solid state batteries, faster charging times, farther range, more charging stations, etc.).    Although, the migration to BEVs is well underway, it's probably not going to happen as fast as some of us want.  

 

Actually, now most industry analyst believe the migration to BEV will happen much faster than just what we thought a year ago. EV sales are surging now that regulatory framework is clear now in every major market and all the car companies are on board with BEV as the standard going forward. This is why Tesla's valuation continue to go up... people that watch this industry closely now realize it is going to be difficult for companies like VW, Toyota, or Ford to catch Tesla because demand curve for BEV has shifted up across the board in the entire price range. The old conventional wisdom was that since market for BEV is limited and will grow slowly so traditional car companies can catchup quickly to Tesla. But in Europe and California, this has so far been proven false because demand for BEV is much higher and growing much faster than the general market than anyone anticipated just 18 months ago and Tesla has cemented its lead.

 

 

[rmc523]

4 hours ago, CurtisH said:

Agreed.  The excerpt that rperez817 quoted from the article was enough to convince me that I didn’t want to waste my time reading the whole article.  

 

Oh I didn't bother reading beyond the quote either.

[llinthicum1]

I hope so, but we're have to wait and see.  Consumers will have final say.  

[akirby]

I think it’s going to plateau until we get to the next Gen batteries and charging infrastructure buildout.  Mostly 2nd vehicles for people who can charge at home and local fleets.  Just my opinion.

[rperez817]

42 minutes ago, bzcat said:

Actually, now most industry analyst believe the migration to BEV will happen much faster than just what we thought a year ago. EV sales are surging now that regulatory framework is clear now in every major market and all the car companies are on board with BEV as the standard going forward. This is why Tesla's valuation continue to go up... people that watch this industry closely now realize it is going to be difficult for companies like VW, Toyota, or Ford to catch Tesla because demand curve for BEV has shifted up across the board in the entire price range. The old conventional wisdom was that since market for BEV is limited and will grow slowly so traditional car companies can catchup quickly to Tesla. But in Europe and California, this has so far been proven false because demand for BEV is much higher and growing much faster than the general market than anyone anticipated just 18 months ago and Tesla has cemented its lead.

 

Yes sir bzcat. The accelerated timeframe you mentioned for migration to BEV and away from ICE is reflected in the valuation of the Top 5 incumbent automakers vs Top 5 EV only automakers in the 2017 to 2021 timeframe. The graph below shows inflection points in mid to late 2020 and throughout 2021.

[akirby]

How about posting revenue and profit projections instead of more market cap babbling.

[jpd80]

3 hours ago, akirby said:

How about posting revenue and profit projections instead of more market cap babbling.

The more I read about EV companies, the more this feels like the dot com bubble of the early 2000s. Fun when investors make money on speculation but we all know that only gets you so far, real cash and investments in products that are profitable is the key here and nothing Tesla has done so far convinces me that they’re blowing a virtually unchallenged market…….

[FordBuyer]

1 hour ago, jpd80 said:

The more I read about EV companies, the more this feels like the dot com bubble of the early 2000s. Fun when investors make money on speculation but we all know that only gets you so far, real cash and investments in products that are profitable is the key here and nothing Tesla has done so far convinces me that they’re blowing a virtually unchallenged market…….

 

A bunch of market strategists are saying overvalued Rivian and Lucid are signs of an unhealthy market that comes with too much liquidity in the system. They predict that this bubble will burst in about 12 months. It's going to be a long way down when it happens. 

[jpd80]

2 hours ago, FordBuyer said:

 

A bunch of market strategists are saying overvalued Rivian and Lucid are signs of an unhealthy market that comes with too much liquidity in the system. They predict that this bubble will burst in about 12 months. It's going to be a long way down when it happens. 

Well I hope that Ford has the good sense to cash out Rivian stock for a huge profit and use that to pay for electrification plans.

[Ford Username]

7 hours ago, bzcat said:

 

Actually, now most industry analyst believe the migration to BEV will happen much faster than just what we thought a year ago. EV sales are surging now that regulatory framework is clear now in every major market and all the car companies are on board with BEV as the standard going forward. This is why Tesla's valuation continue to go up... people that watch this industry closely now realize it is going to be difficult for companies like VW, Toyota, or Ford to catch Tesla because demand curve for BEV has shifted up across the board in the entire price range. The old conventional wisdom was that since market for BEV is limited and will grow slowly so traditional car companies can catchup quickly to Tesla. But in Europe and California, this has so far been proven false because demand for BEV is much higher and growing much faster than the general market than anyone anticipated just 18 months ago and Tesla has cemented its lead.

 

 

Until technologies improves you're basically swapping one limit resource for another.  Sustainability and environment impact is often overlooked. Where are battery components coming from? There's limited resources of nickel, cobalt, and lithium pockets. Add the environmental impact of mining and related electrical initiatives 

 

People don't think about this and then the generation of electricity through?...say through hydroelectric dams (see British Columbia Site C dam project and flooding of forests for this project to meet electricity demands). Battery recycling and recovery needs improvement but it's currently not that profitable and requires government subsidies. 

 

I'm not saying BEVs are great but it's just swapping one issue for another. The next gen in marketing 

[silvrsvt]

4 hours ago, Ford Username said:

Until technologies improves you're basically swapping one limit resource for another.  Sustainability and environment impact is often overlooked. Where are battery components coming from? There's limited resources of nickel, cobalt, and lithium pockets. Add the environmental impact of mining and related electrical initiatives 

 

People don't think about this and then the generation of electricity through?...say through hydroelectric dams (see British Columbia Site C dam project and flooding of forests for this project to meet electricity demands). Battery recycling and recovery needs improvement but it's currently not that profitable and requires government subsidies. 

 

I'm not saying BEVs are great but it's just swapping one issue for another. The next gen in marketing 

 

But your also discounting any improvements in battery tech not using Nickle, cobalt and lithium in next gen batteries either. 

 

Electrical impact might not be as great as expected-consider that most charging should be done after hours when there is less demand for electric-at least with people who have charging stations at home, and solar can help offset generation at home also in some cases. 

 

 

[bzcat]

8 hours ago, Ford Username said:

Until technologies improves you're basically swapping one limit resource for another.  Sustainability and environment impact is often overlooked. Where are battery components coming from? There's limited resources of nickel, cobalt, and lithium pockets. Add the environmental impact of mining and related electrical initiatives 

 

People don't think about this and then the generation of electricity through?...say through hydroelectric dams (see British Columbia Site C dam project and flooding of forests for this project to meet electricity demands). Battery recycling and recovery needs improvement but it's currently not that profitable and requires government subsidies. 

 

I'm not saying BEVs are great but it's just swapping one issue for another. The next gen in marketing 

 

Why are you talking about sustainability of battery when sustainability of internal combustion engine is clearly far more precarious? That's like saying I should worry about the box of match on my desk catching on fire when the house is already on fire. 

 

The electricity generation thing is a non-issue. Crypto currency mining already use more electricity than electric cars and will be the case for the foreseeable future. And that didn't cause your lights to go out. 

 

 

[rperez817]

16 hours ago, akirby said:

How about posting revenue and profit projections instead of more market cap babbling.

 

Members of this site are welcome to do just that.

[akirby]

27 minutes ago, bzcat said:

The electricity generation thing is a non-issue. Crypto currency mining already use more electricity than electric cars and will be the case for the foreseeable future. And that didn't cause your lights to go out. 

It can’t be a non issue when you have rolling blackouts and multi day power outages.   Overnight charging and solar power mitigates some of that risk but only for some of the population.  People in apartments, condos and older homes are SOL at least for the near future and would have to rely on public charging.

 

Thats why I see a plateau where demand hits a limit based on infrastructure limitations until those limitations are overcome by infrastructure changes and/or technology advances.  Doesn’t mean we shouldn’t keep pushing to get there but not all of that will happen in a year or even 5 years or a decade.

 

 

[RedHoncho01]

EVs are here to stay.  Currently, no automaker can build them fast enough to satisfy demand whether it be Tesla, Rivian, Lucid, GM or Ford.  The supply chain for microchips and batteries are the biggest constraints on the back side.  Ford, GM and Stellantis are not fully ready to mass produce electric vehicles.  This will impede the transition from ICE to EV more than anything else.  The battery and microchip supply will improve within the next 2 - 3 years.   Then it will be up to the automakers to begin mass production.  

 

Ford in conjunction with Purdue University has developed a charging cord that can make charging an EV as fast as filling up an ICE vehicle with gas.  The hardware and software on the EV as well as the charging stations will have to be upgraded in order to handle rapid charging of this nature.  

 

The power grid is not a big consideration in the adoption of EVs.  The recently enacted infrastructure bill includes money to bolster the grid and to increase the availability of charging stations.

[bzcat]

37 minutes ago, akirby said:

It can’t be a non issue when you have rolling blackouts and multi day power outages.   Overnight charging and solar power mitigates some of that risk but only for some of the population.  People in apartments, condos and older homes are SOL at least for the near future and would have to rely on public charging.

 

Thats why I see a plateau where demand hits a limit based on infrastructure limitations until those limitations are overcome by infrastructure changes and/or technology advances.  Doesn’t mean we shouldn’t keep pushing to get there but not all of that will happen in a year or even 5 years or a decade.

 

 

 

Blackouts are generally not caused by lack of generating capacity. Grid resiliency is a complex topic but to put it in simple terms, we need more utility scale and locally distributed storage capacity, not necessarily more generating capacity. We have plenty of generating capacity (as demonstrated by the huge electricity demand growth of crypto... which we absorbed without an eye blink) and more cheap solar and wind powers are being added to the grid than coal is exiting the grid. 

 

Public charging is widely available where I live. Just about every big box retailer, mall, shopping center, or Govt facilities have charging stations open to the public in the parking lot or garage. There are over 200 charging stations available on all the networks from EVGO to Tesla within 3 miles from my house. This doesn't even include all the chargers not available to general public but are available for share use (i.e. all the workplace or apartment charging stations behind gates or fences). This is a local ordinance issue, not a infrastructure issue per se. Where you live, your local Govt has not kept up with building codes or zoning requirements for EV charging. I don't like it when people refer to lack of local public charging access as an infrastructure problem. It is not - it cost relatively very little money to install Level 2 chargers everywhere. It is a political problem... ideological aversion to electrical car because some kind of perceived threat to existing way of life that is preventing your locality from having abundant public charging facilities.

Edited November 18, 2021 by bzcat

[akirby]

1 hour ago, bzcat said:

 

Blackouts are generally not caused by lack of generating capacity. Grid resiliency is a complex topic but to put it in simple terms, we need more utility scale and locally distributed storage capacity, not necessarily more generating capacity. We have plenty of generating capacity (as demonstrated by the huge electricity demand growth of crypto... which we absorbed without an eye blink) and more cheap solar and wind powers are being added to the grid than coal is exiting the grid. 

 

Public charging is widely available where I live. Just about every big box retailer, mall, shopping center, or Govt facilities have charging stations open to the public in the parking lot or garage. There are over 200 charging stations available on all the networks from EVGO to Tesla within 3 miles from my house. This doesn't even include all the chargers not available to general public but are available for share use (i.e. all the workplace or apartment charging stations behind gates or fences). This is a local ordinance issue, not a infrastructure issue per se. Where you live, your local Govt has not kept up with building codes or zoning requirements for EV charging. I don't like it when people refer to lack of local public charging access as an infrastructure problem. It is not - it cost relatively very little money to install Level 2 chargers everywhere. It is a political problem... ideological aversion to electrical car because some kind of perceived threat to existing way of life that is preventing your locality from having abundant public charging facilities.

I’m not saying this isn’t solveable or that we shouldn’t do anything.  I’m just pointing out problems that need to be solved before we can go 100% bev.

 

If I live in an apartment and I’m almost empty and plan to stop to charge on the way to work and there is a 2 hour rolling blackout I’m screwed.  Or an extended multi day blackout like Texas last year.  Why doesn’t matter when you’re sitting on E and have no way to refuel.

 

Stop thinking only about urban areas and houses with overnight charging and solar power and think of all the people in rural areas especially in the rural South and the Plains.  You can’t go 100% BEV without solving their problems too.