Electric Vehicle Discussion Thread - Ford Related

[jasonj80]

48 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

 

Yes sir Harley Lover, GM was ahead of Ford with BEV until the Bolt recall fiasco last year, and as you mentioned is also ahead in terms of BEV rollout plans in the near future.

 

Ford has 2 huge advantages over GM though.

1. Ford's CEO properly acknowledges that Tesla is far ahead of everyone else with designing and marketing BEV.
2. Ford now has an executive who used to work at Tesla directly involved with Ford's BEV efforts.

 

You forgot the most important one,

3. Ford BEV are better styled in the eyes of most consumers. (Even GM designers I know don't love them) hard to sell things when they look like a bloated bubble or look like the design team ran out of money 3/4 though the vehicle design. The Equinox price thing is just to grab headlines away from Tesla and Ford and generate some positive PR. 

[Harley Lover]

40 minutes ago, jasonj80 said:

The Equinox price thing is just to grab headlines away from Tesla and Ford and generate some positive PR. 

 

I call this "engineering by press release." GM have done it for years. The price they're claiming for the product is noteworthy, if they can deliver. And the news that they plan to bring in an even lower price product is noteworthy, (again) if they can deliver. GM have pissed so much capital away over the years without a decent return (Cadillac anyone?) it's breathtaking.

[RedHoncho01]

5 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Not a coincidence, the “war has begun” and don’t forget that Toyota is spending $70 billion in a huge catch up effort.?

Heres a question, with $20 billion extra, what is Ford now planning, is this on top of its VW MEB based vehicles or instead of them?

Or is the $20 billion just to ramp up resources in development and electric technology, battery chemistry all part of become “Tesla”.

Part of that money will be sunk into manufacturing plants as the entire assembly process is simpler.  Conveyors need to be revamped and rerouted.  Think of an EV as a computer with wheels.  With the exception of the installation of the carpet, headliners and seats everything else is plug and play.

 

The current battery technology is good enough for now but not for the future.  As new battery chemistries are developed the charging times and ranges will increase dramatically.  Our Next Energy (ONE) just ran a test on a Tesla Model S where they swapped out the Tesla batteries for ones they developed.  They were able to achieve over 1000 miles on a single charge.  Ford is in development with Purdue University for fast charging times that will equal ICE refueling times, ie., 5 minutes to fully charge a vehicle.  The charging station hardware has to be developed along with significant changes to the hardware and software in the vehicle for this to come to fruition.

 

I think the battery and charging technology will change a great deal in the next 5 years.  I purchased a Lincoln Corsair GT PHEV as my bridge vehicle between ICE and EV.  When I'm tooling around town running errands I'm primarily running on EV.  When I take long trips, the vehicle acts as a hybrid and gives me improved MPG.  I think this will be the norm for the next several years until people become familiar enough and BEVs become more affordable.

 

I foresee a time when you will be able to purchase a vehicle and be able to configure the battery set up to your needs.  Battery packs could be configured based upon distance and payload requirements.  

Edited February 2, 2022 by RedHoncho01

[jasonj80]

32 minutes ago, RedHoncho01 said:

 

The current battery technology is good enough for now but not for the future.  As new battery chemistries are developed the charging times and ranges will increase dramatically.  Our Next Energy (ONE) just ran a test on a Tesla Model S where they swapped out the Tesla batteries for ones they developed.  They were able to achieve over 1000 miles on a single charge.  Ford is in development with Princeton University for fast charging times that will equal ICE refueling times, ie., 5 minutes to fully charge a vehicle.  The charging station hardware has to be developed along with significant changes to the hardware and software in the vehicle for this to come to fruition.

 

Perdue University - Ford and Purdue Patent Charging Station Cable for Research That Could Lead to Recharging EVs as Quickly as Gas Station Fill-Ups | Ford Media Center

[rperez817]

1 hour ago, Harley Lover said:

I call this "engineering by press release." 

 

This is also something that Ford does better than GM. With BEV, GM has more advanced technology, but Ford has the best PR and marketing people in the automotive business. 

[rperez817]

2 hours ago, jasonj80 said:

3. Ford BEV are better styled in the eyes of most consumers.

 

Good point jasonj80. Mustang Mach-E in particular is not only one of the most stylish BEV in the market today, but also the best looking crossover type vehicle from any automaker in history.

Edited February 2, 2022 by rperez817

[jpd80]

3 hours ago, RedHoncho01 said:

Part of that money will be sunk into manufacturing plants as the entire assembly process is simpler.  Conveyors need to be revamped and rerouted.  Think of an EV as a computer with wheels.  With the exception of the installation of the carpet, headliners and seats everything else is plug and play.

 

The current battery technology is good enough for now but not for the future.  As new battery chemistries are developed the charging times and ranges will increase dramatically.  Our Next Energy (ONE) just ran a test on a Tesla Model S where they swapped out the Tesla batteries for ones they developed.  They were able to achieve over 1000 miles on a single charge.  Ford is in development with Purdue University for fast charging times that will equal ICE refueling times, ie., 5 minutes to fully charge a vehicle.  The charging station hardware has to be developed along with significant changes to the hardware and software in the vehicle for this to come to fruition.

 

I think the battery and charging technology will change a great deal in the next 5 years.  I purchased a Lincoln Corsair GT PHEV as my bridge vehicle between ICE and EV.  When I'm tooling around town running errands I'm primarily running on EV.  When I take long trips, the vehicle acts as a hybrid and gives me improved MPG.  I think this will be the norm for the next several years until people become familiar enough and BEVs become more affordable.

 

I foresee a time when you will be able to purchase a vehicle and be able to configure the battery set up to your needs.  Battery packs could be configured based upon distance and payload requirements.  

Thank you for your response and the depth of thought you put into it, but I think that you missed the part  of my question regarding Ford’s plans using the VW MEB toolkit. It makes me wonder if Farley is reconsidering the VW’s MEB deal an what ford is getting for its money, call me cynical but maybe Farley and his team took a good look at MEB and think they can do better with more affordable small and mid sized vehicles.

 

After Diess’ public comments about VW being uncompetitive compared to Tesla, I get the feeling that he was also talking about VW’s electric vehicles, maybe Jim Farley has the same perception and now want to change things to a Ford design……

 

Battery tech and motor/electrical efficiency are everything with BEVs, so should Ford be locking itself into VW’’s platform that takes too long to build?

 

[rmc523]

10 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Not a coincidence, the “war has begun” and don’t forget that Toyota is spending $70 billion in a huge catch up effort.?

Heres a question, with $20 billion extra, what is Ford now planning, is this on top of its VW MEB based vehicles or instead of them?

Or is the $20 billion just to ramp up resources in development and electric technology, battery chemistry all part of become “Tesla”.

i think it’s both.   More on the former below, but regarding the latter, a lot of what was mentioned seemed to be pouring more resources into battery tech.

 

5 hours ago, Harley Lover said:

 

I call this "engineering by press release." GM have done it for years. The price they're claiming for the product is noteworthy, if they can deliver. And the news that they plan to bring in an even lower price product is noteworthy, (again) if they can deliver. GM have pissed so much capital away over the years without a decent return (Cadillac anyone?) it's breathtaking.

 

Another thing too - they may hit that price point, but are they making money on it.

 

I also wonder if that’s before or after any potential tax credit….I know GM’s is out, but maybe they’re counting on more credits appearing by the time It’s set to go on sale.

 I.e. msrp is actually 42,500, but add the rumored 12,500 “us/uaw made” credit, and you get to $30,000.

 

1 hour ago, jpd80 said:

Thank you for your response and the depth of thought you put into it, but I think that you missed the part  of my question regarding Ford’s plans using the VW MEB toolkit. It makes me wonder if Farley is reconsidering the VW’s MEB deal an what ford is getting for its money, call me cynical but maybe Farley and his team took a good look at MEB and think they can do better with more affordable small and mid sized vehicles.

 

After Diess’ public comments about VW being uncompetitive compared to Tesla, I get the feeling that he was also talking about VW’s electric vehicles, maybe Jim Farley has the same perception and now want to change things to a Ford design……

 

Battery tech and motor/electrical efficiency are everything with BEVs, so should Ford be locking itself into VW’’s platform that takes too long to build?

 

I won’t be surprised if all we see out of MEB is whatever had been committed to already and then the companies go their separate ways EV-wise.  So a limited scope, one generation tie up, and then they’re replaced by a Ford-designed BEV architecture/tech.

 

hackett was all about the VW tie up, and I feel like Farley has barely mentioned it/is less enamored by it.

Edited February 2, 2022 by rmc523

[rperez817]

1 hour ago, jpd80 said:

After Diess’ public comments about VW being uncompetitive compared to Tesla, I get the feeling that he was also talking about VW’s electric vehicles, maybe Jim Farley has the same perception and now want to change things to a Ford design……

 

Battery tech and motor/electrical efficiency are everything with BEVs, so should Ford be locking itself into VW’’s platform that takes too long to build?

 

All incumbent automakers are currently uncompetitive compared to Tesla when it comes to BEV engineering. As mentioned earlier, Jim Farley's respect for Tesla's advantage is a good thing for Ford, and the same is true for Diess' similar stance at VW. Ford and VW 's collaboration should be beneficial overall for both companies, even if neither company overtakes Tesla in the U.S. BEV market. 

[jpd80]

15 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

 

All incumbent automakers are currently uncompetitive compared to Tesla when it comes to BEV engineering. As mentioned earlier, Jim Farley's respect for Tesla's advantage is a good thing for Ford, and the same is true for Diess' similar stance at VW. Ford and VW 's collaboration should be beneficial overall for both companies, even if neither company overtakes Tesla in the U.S. BEV market. 

Correct but my point is should Ford be charging ahead with VW based BEVs in three years time if VW now thinks they’re uncompetitive today? That $20 billion would go a long way towards bringing those vehicles and battery tech back under Ford control.

[jpd80]

1 hour ago, rmc523 said:

i think it’s both.   More on the former below, but regarding the latter, a lot of what was mentioned seemed to be pouring more resources into battery tech.

 

 

Another thing too - they may hit that price point, but are they making money on it.

 

I also wonder if that’s before or after any potential tax credit….I know GM’s is out, but maybe they’re counting on more credits appearing by the time It’s set to go on sale.

 I.e. msrp is actually 42,500, but add the rumored 12,500 “us/uaw made” credit, and you get to $30,000.

 

I won’t be surprised if all we see out of MEB is whatever had been committed to already and then the companies go their separate ways EV-wise.  So a limited scope, one generation tie up, and then they’re replaced by a Ford-designed BEV architecture/tech.

 

hackett was all about the VW tie up, and I feel like Farley haha barely mentioned it/is less enamored by it.

Excellent summary in my opinion. I can see Ford Europe using MEB while perhaps North America does its own thing. You’re right about Farley not mentioning VW based electric vehicles, that’s what made me think about Diess comments in November. Maybe Farley was already way ahead on that before the VW boss told the world…

Edited February 2, 2022 by jpd80

[rperez817]

Ford along with Rivian endorsed legislation introduced recently by Representatives Spanberger of Virginia and Rice of South Carolina to "expand the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Energy for America Program by including funding for EV charging infrastructure". Bipartisan efforts mount to expand EV infrastructure in rural America - Medill News Service (northwestern.edu)

 

The Spanberger-Rice legislation was endorsed by Ford and similarly commended by Rivian in an emailed statement.

“Rivian is already working to install charging in rural areas, but achieving widespread adoption must involve public investments as well as private to achieve the full scope of environmental and economic benefits nationwide,” said James Chen, vice president of public policy at Rivian Automotive.

In addition to electric pick-ups, Spanberger noted that she has heard “significant excitement about the possibility of being able to have a fully electric tractor,” and believes the bill would encourage farmers to use electric farm equipment.

[jasonj80]

40 minutes ago, rmc523 said:

 

 

hackett was all about the VW tie up, and I feel like Farley haha barely mentioned it/is less enamored by it.

It was at a time when Ford needed to leveraging business strengths for Wall Street and VW needed some good PR with its outlay for electric vehicles and over coming the diesel disaster. Ford has been heavily investing in GE2, from the bits I get from employees of late Ford will end up using for the US market electric vehicles and most of the upper range of EU. Lower range EU will use VW MEB however everything will move back to Ford for cost savings as time goes on. Every Ford vehicle underwent review Farley took over and a lot has changed and currently is with product which will be coming out over the next year. There is a ton of new and updated product coming but the supply chain has decimated timelines and forecasts and vehicle assembly utilization is all over the map. Ford was caught off guard when the EU politically went all in on electric at a speed that is unheard of in vehicle planning and Ford was left scrambling to fill that and needed contingency plans in the short term, even for the US it was going to have a compliance vehicle only sold in specific states. A lot has changed in the last 2 - 3 years at Ford from when this was all announced. The Explorer being pushed will make sure it has the latest battery tech in it when it comes out and frees up capacity for the MME which will be getting more updates over the next 2 model years as well to improve range and cost. 

 

The market has considerably shifted in that time, and the agreement over time will evolve; even the new Amarok has been pulled from markets it was originally going to be sold in. 

[jpd80]

1 hour ago, jasonj80 said:

It was at a time when Ford needed to leveraging business strengths for Wall Street and VW needed some good PR with its outlay for electric vehicles and over coming the diesel disaster. Ford has been heavily investing in GE2, from the bits I get from employees of late Ford will end up using for the US market electric vehicles and most of the upper range of EU. Lower range EU will use VW MEB however everything will move back to Ford for cost savings as time goes on. Every Ford vehicle underwent review Farley took over and a lot has changed and currently is with product which will be coming out over the next year. There is a ton of new and updated product coming but the supply chain has decimated timelines and forecasts and vehicle assembly utilization is all over the map. Ford was caught off guard when the EU politically went all in on electric at a speed that is unheard of in vehicle planning and Ford was left scrambling to fill that and needed contingency plans in the short term, even for the US it was going to have a compliance vehicle only sold in specific states. A lot has changed in the last 2 - 3 years at Ford from when this was all announced. The Explorer being pushed will make sure it has the latest battery tech in it when it comes out and frees up capacity for the MME which will be getting more updates over the next 2 model years as well to improve range and cost. 

 

The market has considerably shifted in that time, and the agreement over time will evolve; even the new Amarok has been pulled from markets it was originally going to be sold in. 

Good assessment.

I think you’re spot on with your view of GE2 vs MEB and what Ford needs in Europe/ROW is different enough to force changes to Hackett’s vision for the very reasons you stated. Seriously can’t see Ford throwing good money at VW for what will be at least five year old tech by the time it arrives in North America, Ford own design can do it quicker, less cost and better battery tech, the more Ford takes in house, the greater the savings….ironic isn’t it.

 

As Ford rolls into GE2, I wonder if the narrower GE based MME becomes the heavily amortised baseline/ brownfield start  for smaller North American utilities, cars and pickups……it was to be the electric evolution of ICE C2 especially where the bodies (top hats) construction is concerned…

Edited February 2, 2022 by jpd80

[bzcat]

MEB is in itself a temporary solution. VW's end game on EV is SSP which will come in 3 different flavors (depending on price point/content)

 

Ford using MEB was always just an expedient way to get more EV on the road sooner. We'll see if Ford and VW will continue collaborating once VW moves on to SSP. 

[jpd80]

Thanks for the reply and table bzcat, the fact that VW is moving on with software probably explains why they are not concerned with sharing MEB with Ford, they are already well advanced  with plans to be onto something better. All of that ties in with everything you and others have been saying above.

 

Makes me wonder about those changing Ford plans and what vehicles Oakville will build, this could work out massively in the Canadians favour if they become a GE2 plant and Cuautitlan becomes the affordable lower cost vehicles. Thinking post 2024, right vehicles in right cost centres and how to get that done…

Edited February 2, 2022 by jpd80

[Harley Lover]

3 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Thanks for the reply and table bzcat, the fact that VW is moving on with software probably explains why they are not concerned with sharing MEB with Ford, they are already well advanced  with plans to be onto something better. All of that ties in with everything you and others have been saying above.

 

Makes me wonder about those changing Ford plans and what vehicles Oakville will build, this could work out massively in the Canadians favour if they become a GE2 plant and Cuautitlan becomes the affordable lower cost vehicles. Thinking post 2024, right vehicles in right cost centres and how to get that done…

 

Another factor not yet revealed that will be a big indicator - battery plants. Ford (Farley) have already indicated that more are forthcoming, and the ideal scenario would be that they would be built alongside EV plants. Ford have not indicated plans for how they will supply Oakville or Cuautitlan in the future, but will presumably come out with those plans eventually.

[silvrsvt]

On 2/2/2022 at 5:53 AM, atomcat68 said:

 

Well, people were convinced that the $1,000 flatscreen TV that lasts 2 years is better than the picture tube TV that never dies, so the drive to be modern sometimes outweighs the drive to be practical. 

 

Since when does a 1K flatscreen only last 2 years? I didn't get that memo ?

 

I still have a Dell LCD monitor (haven't used it regularly) that is like 16 years old and still works-had to use it two years ago when my LCD screen on my PC crapped out, it was about 6 years old and my old LCD screen for the living room still worked till we replaced it a few years back and gave it to someone else. 

 

I think much of the LCD failures are due to cheap ones-I seen this with cheap computer LCD monitors-spend some more and they last longer. 

[atomcat68]

8 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

 

Since when does a 1K flatscreen only last 2 years? I didn't get that memo ?

 

I still have a Dell LCD monitor (haven't used it regularly) that is like 16 years old and still works-had to use it two years ago when my LCD screen on my PC crapped out, it was about 6 years old and my old LCD screen for the living room still worked till we replaced it a few years back and gave it to someone else. 

 

I think much of the LCD failures are due to cheap ones-I seen this with cheap computer LCD monitors-spend some more and they last longer. 

I work in an company that retails these things. The manufacturers claim they last 5-7 years. Let's just say, it varies on the brand you buy and it is one of those things that a service plan is a wise thing. Some brands will get you there and others... let's just say you're really rolling the dice when you choose them. Modern televisions do not inspire confidence.

Edited February 3, 2022 by atomcat68

[RedHoncho01]

On 2/2/2022 at 1:40 PM, jpd80 said:

Thank you for your response and the depth of thought you put into it, but I think that you missed the part  of my question regarding Ford’s plans using the VW MEB toolkit. It makes me wonder if Farley is reconsidering the VW’s MEB deal an what ford is getting for its money, call me cynical but maybe Farley and his team took a good look at MEB and think they can do better with more affordable small and mid sized vehicles.

 

After Diess’ public comments about VW being uncompetitive compared to Tesla, I get the feeling that he was also talking about VW’s electric vehicles, maybe Jim Farley has the same perception and now want to change things to a Ford design……

 

Battery tech and motor/electrical efficiency are everything with BEVs, so should Ford be locking itself into VW’’s platform that takes too long to build?

 

I believe Ford has announced their first VW MEB vehicle will be launched within the next year but I think it is only in Europe. 

 

I question the tie up between Ford and VW.  It seems like a one way street to me.  Ford and VW attempted to have a joint venture before but it never happened. 

[bzcat]

3 hours ago, RedHoncho01 said:

I believe Ford has announced their first VW MEB vehicle will be launched within the next year but I think it is only in Europe. 

 

I question the tie up between Ford and VW.  It seems like a one way street to me.  Ford and VW attempted to have a joint venture before but it never happened. 

 

First Ford MEB is the B-segment CUV about the same size as Puma which will be sold only in Europe (may or may not be marketed as Puma because the ICE Puma will continue). Ford previously said Corsair (and by extension, Escape) will also use MEB and it will be made in Oakville. But not much update on that front.

 

I take that to mean that anything that will also be produced in Europe (e.g. Kuga/Escape) will be on MEB. But anything that will only be produced in US and China and not in Europe (e.g. Mach E, Explorer) will be on GE2.

 

The VW-Ford tie up is definitely two-way. VW is getting replacement for Amarok and Transporter out of it. It's possible that VW will sell a lot more Ford based truck and van than Ford will sell VW based EV. At least in the short to mid term. Long term, hard to say... Ford may not be using MEB beyond one generation of product. 

 

[jpd80]

53 minutes ago, bzcat said:

 

First Ford MEB is the B-segment CUV about the same size as Puma which will be sold only in Europe (may or may not be marketed as Puma because the ICE Puma will continue). Ford previously said Corsair (and by extension, Escape) will also use MEB and it will be made in Oakville. But not much update on that front.

 

I take that to mean that anything that will also be produced in Europe (e.g. Kuga/Escape) will be on MEB. But anything that will only be produced in US and China and not in Europe (e.g. Mach E, Explorer) will be on GE2.

 

The VW-Ford tie up is definitely two-way. VW is getting replacement for Amarok and Transporter out of it. It's possible that VW will sell a lot more Ford based truck and van than Ford will sell VW based EV. At least in the short to mid term. Long term, hard to say... Ford may not be using MEB beyond one generation of product. 

 

My feelings exactly.

So maybe that B segment CUV becomes a reimagined Fiesta  similar to the way Toyota seems to be morphing the Corolla name to a crossover. Europe’s immediate needs for affordable smaller BEVs are different to North America’s priorities right now.  So maybe we see MEB extend to  Kuga, Focus, Transit Connect and so on at the Valencia plant while North America doubles down on GE2 by including compact and mid sized vehicles……FNA looking after its own products is not unrealistic now that Farley is in charge, it makes sense for Ford to do as much as it can and not just give money to others like VW which was an easy expedient for Hackett.

 

Here’s a thought, once Mustang Mach E switches to GE2, could the current GE based MME vehicle be changed to cover vehicles now built on C2 like Escape, BroncoSport and Maverick?

 

 

Edited February 4, 2022 by jpd80

[bzcat]

Seems like Ford's internal plan was something like this:

 

B2+C2 ==> MEB

CD4+CD6+GE1 ==> GE2

 

I'm not sure if that really has changed but I think the demand for EV in Europe has been really strong, much more than anyone expected, including Ford and VW. So there are probably a lot of internal debate about how far Ford should be entangled with MEB if EV starts to account for majority of sales, which is going to happen much sooner than Hackett (or anyone else in the industry) expected 4 years ago when VW first approached Ford about sharing MEB.

[jpd80]

1 hour ago, bzcat said:

Seems like Ford's internal plan was something like this:

 

B2+C2 ==> MEB

CD4+CD6+GE1 ==> GE2

 

I'm not sure if that really has changed but I think the demand for EV in Europe has been really strong, much more than anyone expected, including Ford and VW. So there are probably a lot of internal debate about how far Ford should be entangled with MEB if EV starts to account for majority of sales, which is going to happen much sooner than Hackett (or anyone else in the industry) expected 4 years ago when VW first approached Ford about sharing MEB.

I was just thinking that maybe GE1 being narrower and amortised may be more advantageous to North America for developing compact BEVs as the supplier network is already established at Cuautitlan.Oakville could become the majorGE2 plant while either MEB or GE1 in Mexico suits cost control.

 

In any regard, the priority in North America is large and mid sized vehicles at the moment which reduces any urgency.

Edited February 4, 2022 by jpd80

[bzcat]

It's quite possible Ford has decided to use GE2 for Escape and Corsair. They haven't said anything about MEB in North America since the initial Oakville EV announcement. 

 

Corsair and Escape are 2025 model year so engineering should be lock just about now. The EV landscape has changed pretty significantly since Hackett signed the deal with VW. Back in 2020, most people expect EV adoption to be slow and graduate so there was a lot more time to figure out your strategy. Leveraging MEB for smaller EV seems like a good bet for Ford so it doesn't need to sink a lot of money into something that VW was already far ahead.

 

But only 2 years later, the EV adoption has not been slow and graduate. It is explosive and exponential. EV went from 2% to 12% of market in California, and from 1% to 17% in Germany (and 28% plug in with EV+PHEV). Now Ford fully expects EV to account for the majority of its sales by later this decade. So the impetus to bring these things back inhouse is probably very strong. Farley is far more focused on this than Hackett... he knows Ford has to control its own destiny on EV.