Electric Vehicle Discussion Thread - Ford Related

[bzcat]

It would be a huge strategic blunder if industry EV lagger Toyota managed to bring the EV Hilux to market before Ford can bring EV Ranger to market. HUGE. 

[mackinaw]

56 minutes ago, bzcat said:

It would be a huge strategic blunder if industry EV lagger Toyota managed to bring the EV Hilux to market before Ford can bring EV Ranger to market. HUGE. 

 

This is from a few day's ago.  Toyota is rethinking their EV strategy AGAIN, probably delaying some future EV programs.  

 

https://www.carscoops.com/2022/12/toyota-delaying-ev-program-to-implement-tesla-beating-tech-report-claims/

[tarheels23]

3 hours ago, mackinaw said:

 

This is from a few day's ago.  Toyota is rethinking their EV strategy AGAIN, probably delaying some future EV programs.  

 

https://www.carscoops.com/2022/12/toyota-delaying-ev-program-to-implement-tesla-beating-tech-report-claims/

later to the party but with a better mousetrap?????

[DeluxeStang]

11 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

In another thread, bzcat explained the fundamental technical limitation of hydrogen fuel cells.

 

 

 

The process of producing usable hydrogen isn't perfect by any means.But the same is true for our current power grid and existing sources of generating power. 

[silvrsvt]

1 hour ago, DeluxeStang said:

The process of producing usable hydrogen isn't perfect by any means.But the same is true for our current power grid and existing sources of generating power. 

 

it doesn't change the fact that producing hydrogen at this point (till Nuclear fusion becomes a thing) is a fools errand economonically. It might have some uses, but why spend all that energy making it and then using it in a engine that is inherrenally more ineffectent then an electrical motor? A ICE is lucky to put out 40-60% of its potetal vs an electric motor which is roughly 80% 

[mackinaw]

4 hours ago, tarheels23 said:

later to the party but with a better mousetrap?????

 

Cheaper mousetrap.  Sounds like Toyota's current BEV's cost much more to assemble the Tesla's.  So they're redesigning their BEV's to be cheaper to build.

[mackinaw]

2 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

 

it doesn't change the fact that producing hydrogen at this point (till Nuclear fusion becomes a thing) is a fools errand economonically. It might have some uses, but why spend all that energy making it and then using it in a engine that is inherrenally more ineffectent then an electrical motor? A ICE is lucky to put out 40-60% of its potetal vs an electric motor which is roughly 80% 

 

Both Farley and Mark Reuss have suggested that hydrogen has a place in HD trucks (e.g. F-350).

[silvrsvt]

8 hours ago, mackinaw said:

 

Both Farley and Mark Reuss have suggested that hydrogen has a place in HD trucks (e.g. F-350).

 

That I could see since there are issues with BEVs and towing heavy loads. 

[rperez817]

9 hours ago, mackinaw said:

Cheaper mousetrap.  Sounds like Toyota's current BEV's cost much more to assemble the Tesla's.  So they're redesigning their BEV's to be cheaper to build.

 

That's correct mackinaw. It's a situation where Toyota must spend money and time up front to save money later. One thing is for sure, Toyota has a lot of catching up to do.

[akirby]

2 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

 

That I could see since there are issues with BEVs and towing heavy loads. 

It’s also more feasible for a fleet to have onsite hydrogen storage.

[jpd80]

8 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

That's correct mackinaw. It's a situation where Toyota must spend money and time up front to save money later. One thing is for sure, Toyota has a lot of catching up to do.

Rumour is that Tesla will cosy up with BYD in China for local EV Corolla that looks like becoming an exportable product. A partnership with BYD would give them products to sell while they figure out their new BEV plan. VW is actually in the same god awful place but their pride is stopping them hitting the reset button.

Edited December 16, 2022 by jpd80

[bzcat]

China is a different market than the rest of the world when it comes to EV. Over there, EV is making huge inroads in the lower half of the market where foreign brands traditionally have not competed. 

 

Toyota turning to BYD is of course dripping with irony. A decade ago, BYD started selling knock off Toyota. Remember that famous Youtube video when someone took the body panels off a Corolla and bolted it directly on a BYD F3 and you couldn't even tell the difference? Well now BYD is actually building Toyotas ?

 

And that tells you how much Toyoda's intransigent pigheaded pursue of hydrogen subsidy from Japanese Govt have likely doomed the company of his namesake. 

[passis]

https://fordauthority.com/2022/12/ford-exec-says-european-plant-may-get-american-platform/

[rperez817]

14 hours ago, bzcat said:

And that tells you how much Toyoda's intransigent pigheaded pursue of hydrogen subsidy from Japanese Govt have likely doomed the company of his namesake. 

 

At the press event in Thailand where Toyota announced Hilux Revo BEV, Akio Toyoda made a statement that demonstrates he is still intransigent and pigheaded, and also demonstrates that Toyota is in an existential crisis nowadays. 

 

Ford and its U.S. Big Three competitors GM and Tesla have a great opportunity to overtake Toyota and the Japanese automotive industry overall amid the global automotive industry revolution.

 

Here is what Toyoda said.

Quote

I think BEV's are just going to take longer to become mainstream than the media would like us to believe. And frankly, BEV's are not the only way to achieve the world's carbon neutrality goals. Personally, I would rather pursue every option not just one options such as emission-free synthetic fuels and hydrogen. I still believe Hydrogen is as promising a technology for our future as BEV.

Edited December 17, 2022 by rperez817

[Bob Rosadini]

3 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

At the press event in Thailand where Toyota announced Hilux Revo BEV, Akio Toyoda made a statement that demonstrates he is still intransigent and pigheaded, and also demonstrates that Toyota is in an existential crisis nowadays. 

 

Ford and its U.S. Big Three competitors GM and Tesla have a great opportunity to overtake Toyota and the Japanese automotive industry overall amid the global automotive industry revolution.

 

Here is what Toyoda said.

I'm afraid I would bet on Mr Toyoda rather than Farley.  Perhaps  he had in the back of his mind while we have this huge push to accelerate BEV's, China is building 30 plus coal fired power plants!  Our crash effort will result in how much change vs China's "contribution".  as I've said...in due time.

PS.  Winter in here ....everyone still loving their electric 150's?? 

Fire away! In my trench with helmet and flak jacket on?

[jpd80]

20 hours ago, bzcat said:

China is a different market than the rest of the world when it comes to EV. Over there, EV is making huge inroads in the lower half of the market where foreign brands traditionally have not competed. 

 

Toyota turning to BYD is of course dripping with irony. A decade ago, BYD started selling knock off Toyota. Remember that famous Youtube video when someone took the body panels off a Corolla and bolted it directly on a BYD F3 and you couldn't even tell the difference? Well now BYD is actually building Toyotas ?

 

And that tells you how much Toyoda's intransigent pigheaded pursue of hydrogen subsidy from Japanese Govt have likely doomed the company of his namesake. 

Get this for a laugh,

Toyota is thinking of dropping eTNGA altogether and starting again from scratch on an EV platform…

BYD must be salivating at the thought of being Toyota’s go to plan, they’ve really screwed this up both ways.

 

Also, VW and Stellantis appear to be in a similar situation, making low or no profit EVs is counterproductive. Something has to give there soon it they both go out backwards. It’s like an insane contest to avoid admitting the truth…….

Edited December 17, 2022 by jpd80

[Harley Lover]

1 hour ago, jpd80 said:

Get this for a laugh,

Toyota is thinking of dropping eTNGA altogether and starting again from scratch on an EV platform…

BYD must be salivating at the thought of being Toyota’s go to plan, they’ve really screwed this up both ways.

 

Also, VW and Stellantis appear to be in a similar situation, making low or no profit EVs is counterproductive. Something has to give there soon it they both go out backwards. It’s like an insane contest to avoid admitting the truth…….

 

Ignoring Toyota for a moment, my question is (specifically about VW ? what is the nature of their (inferred) failure with their EV effort? I've read about gigapresses and I suppose that there is money to be saved by rethinking/simplifying the chassis into fewer pieces with these presses, but where else have they come up short? How much of the cost disparity is attributable to labor costs in Germany (which shouldn't be a factor in the U.S. plant)? What other factors are in play?

[silvrsvt]

28 minutes ago, Harley Lover said:

 

Ignoring Toyota for a moment, my question is (specifically about VW ? what is the nature of their (inferred) failure with their EV effort? I've read about gigapresses and I suppose that there is money to be saved by rethinking/simplifying the chassis into fewer pieces with these presses, but where else have they come up short? How much of the cost disparity is attributable to labor costs in Germany (which shouldn't be a factor in the U.S. plant)? What other factors are in play?

 

The MEB is costing alot more then they expected to produce. It boils down to several factors though. As you can see Ford has had issues with raw material prices for batteries. 

[jpd80]

55 minutes ago, Harley Lover said:

 

Ignoring Toyota for a moment, my question is (specifically about VW ? what is the nature of their (inferred) failure with their EV effort? I've read about gigapresses and I suppose that there is money to be saved by rethinking/simplifying the chassis into fewer pieces with these presses, but where else have they come up short? How much of the cost disparity is attributable to labor costs in Germany (which shouldn't be a factor in the U.S. plant)? What other factors are in play?

The issue is lack of automation with EV production a lot of the car production steps are being hand built by workers instead of automation, that’s where Herbert Diess’ 30 hour figure to build a vehicle came  from…

 

Im hoping that Ford can overcome a lot of that with different body manufacturing proces for their MEB based utility and crossover at Cologne. Whatever VW did with its $17 billion to develop MEB, it sure fouled up.
 

Oh and, VW’s new BEV architecture is MEB with new software which has been glitch ridden nightmare.

Fortunately VW didn’t give Ford access to it, so another potential problem avoided.

Edited December 17, 2022 by jpd80

[jpd80]

53 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

The MEB is costing alot more then they expected to produce. It boils down to several factors though. As you can see Ford has had issues with raw material prices for batteries. 

Germans are almost hand building the things, only 20% automation,

that’s where the 30 hours to build comes from…

 

Lets hope that Cologne avoids this handicap…

Edited December 17, 2022 by jpd80

[jpd80]

Could it be that Ford has already overcome many of the VW pitfalls with its own design BEVs,

be that GE Mach E or GE2 mid sized architecture, hope these learnings go into Cologne MEBs.

[bzcat]

The State of Lower Saxony owns roughtly 20% of VW and the labor union has a board seat. So VW's production problem with MEB is essentially that union and their Govt backer won't allow VW to build it like Ford is trying to build its EV (with all new or completelhy retooled plants and fewer workers and different assembly process). 

 

Farley has said that he thinks EV will reuqire 20 to 40% fewer labor hours to build. Think about the implication for VW... For example, the ID Buzz. The van's biggest market by far will be the US. VW wanted to build it in Tennessee and export it from there. But the union did not like that idea so VW had to retool the Hannover plant to build the ID Buzz there first. So now it is going to setup a second plant in Tennessee to build it for US market but it will be 3 years late and double the tooling and plant investment. Nevermind the opportunity cost to build something else in Hannover.

 

The other problem VW faced was the software required to run ID3 and ID4 properly. Despite MEB being from the ground up EV architecture, VW was still designing it in the old fashion way... meaning that there was a software team and a powertrain team and a chassis team and a interior team etc. predicatly, the software team fell behind so the first ID3 that hit the market needed many software updates and they couldn't be done over the air because well... over the air update was one of the functions the software team fell behind on. 

Edited December 17, 2022 by bzcat

[jpd80]

44 minutes ago, bzcat said:

The State of Lower Saxony owns roughtly 20% of VW and the labor union has a board seat. So VW's production problem with MEB is essentially that union and their Govt backer won't allow VW to build it like Ford is trying to build its EV (with all new or completelhy retooled plants and fewer workers and different assembly process). 

Thank you, this explains a lot and why those trying to blame Diess for MEB’s failings

completely misunderstood the reality of the situation.

Quote

Farley has said that he thinks EV will reuqire 20 to 40% fewer labor hours to build. Think about the implication for VW... For example, the ID Buzz. The van's biggest market by far will be the US. VW wanted to build it in Tennessee and export it from there. But the union did not like that idea so VW had to retool the Hannover plant to build the ID Buzz there first. So now it is going to setup a second plant in Tennessee to build it for US market but it will be 3 years late and double the tooling and plant investment. Nevermind the opportunity cost to build something else in Hannover.

OMG, this is much worse than I could imagine. Not only are German unions making their home production plants unprofitable, they’ve confounded VW’s attempts to develop plans for US based manufacturing and profitability 

 

Quote

The other problem VW faced was the software required to run ID3 and ID4 properly. Despite MEB being from the ground up EV architecture, VW was still designing it in the old fashion way... meaning that there was a software team and a powertrain team and a chassis team and a interior team etc. predicatly, the software team fell behind so the first ID3 that hit the market needed many software updates and they couldn't be done over the air because well... over the air update was one of the functions the software team fell behind on. 

And this is the danger of using another manufacturer’s platform, you inherit all their problems for years to come. Im glad that MEB is limited to just two vehicles and that Farley turned the wheel back to Ford based EVs. Ford Europe could do worse than transplanting Puma EV ideas onto Europe based C2 vehicles as stop gaps.

Edited December 17, 2022 by jpd80

[Harley Lover]

14 hours ago, jpd80 said:

 Im glad that MEB is limited to just two vehicles and that Farley turned the wheel back to Ford based EVs. 

 

Another Hackett mistake... but who's counting at this point?

[bzcat]

I don't think Ford is sourcing batteries from VW for MEB. VW doesn't have enough batteries for themselevs so there is no way they will share it with Ford.

 

The license agreement is for Ford to use the platform and that's it. Everything else Ford is reposnsible for including assembly and sourcing battery and motors. And I'm hoping Ford is also doing its own software instead of using VW's codes but I'm actually not sure about that.

 

I'm guessing this cut the development time of midsize crossover by maybe 18 to 24 months in the end. Siginificant enough to make sure Ford is not the last OEM in Europe to come to market with a C-segment EV. But Farley is probably right to cut MEB from North America and to redouble the effort into GE2. There is no long term reason to rely on VW platform, especially in North America. You'd have to split your sourcing of all the materials into two and reduce your economy of scale. 

 

MEB is a good tractical decision for Europe to make sure Ford doesn't fall behind. But it doesn't have a good strategic reason... unless Ford has plans to eventually sell itself (or the European business) to VW.