Electric Vehicle Discussion Thread - Ford Related

[jpd80]

Access to VW’s battery supplier was one of the main reasons that Ford chose the MEB,

it was from a time when Hackett wanted batteries outsourced because he thought wrong.

 

Ford  may be looking to change this requirements since the advance of LFP batteries would

give it a distinct advantage against ID4/ID3. If Ford can switch to own source batteries,

then that will be another big cost saving.

 

production wise they’re only looking at an average combined production of 10,000/ mth out of

Cologne, that’s not the big numbers that some people were expecting with the MEB deal.

Edited December 19, 2022 by jpd80

[bzcat]

Ford's deal with VW is 1.2 million MEB over the term of the license agreement. So I think originally they probably think one generation Escape/Kuga/Corsair in both US and EU over 6 or 7 years. But now I think they will do just EU but over 10 or 11 years.

[jpd80]

11 hours ago, bzcat said:

Ford's deal with VW is 1.2 million MEB over the term of the license agreement. So I think originally they probably think one generation Escape/Kuga/Corsair in both US and EU over 6 or 7 years. But now I think they will do just EU but over 10 or 11 years.

Honestly, I’ve now changed my mind on Cologne

I think Ford will once again be “shocked” by the response to the two EVs and probably

end up needing to build a lot more than expected. Given the EV situation in Europe, these two

vehicles will have a much  lower price  than 3 and Y, embarrass VW and sell like gang busters. 
Probably right vehicles, right styling, right price at the right time.

Edited December 22, 2022 by jpd80

[bzcat]

That's true... the only consistent thing about Ford's EV effort so far is they keep shooting too low and act surprised when people want to buy the damn car ?

 

It would be ironic if Ford's MEB end up being much better executed than VW. Same with Fisker Ocean, another MEB SUV that is highly anticipated and maybe more polished product than ID4.

 

[jpd80]

4 hours ago, bzcat said:

That's true... the only consistent thing about Ford's EV effort so far is they keep shooting too low and act surprised when people want to buy the damn car ?

Ford undermines its own confidence by constantly second guessing its decisions.

While that’s a good thing for avoiding off course products, it kills the good calculated risks.

 

4 hours ago, bzcat said:

It would be ironic if Ford's MEB end up being much better executed than VW. Same with Fisker Ocean, another MEB SUV that is highly anticipated and maybe more polished product than ID4.

Great point.

Imagine if Ford Cologne could build ID3 and ID4 for VW………the unions would never allow it.

 

 

[jpd80]

Oh, just saw Tesla stock down to $125……trying to control my schadenfreude, how low can it go…

[Rick73]

5 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Oh, just saw Tesla stock down to $125……trying to control my schadenfreude, how low can it go…

 

I’m not surprised.  My personal opinion is that Tesla was making a ton of money selling expensive cars to high income buyers, and with essentially no BEV competition.  Now there is competition, and more affordable BEV options everywhere.  A struggling economy doesn’t help either.  In any case it doesn’t confirm that anyone is making huge profits on BEVs.  Longer term, it begs the question whether the industry will be more or less profitable when it’s nearly 100% BEV.

[akirby]

1 hour ago, Rick73 said:

 

I’m not surprised.  My personal opinion is that Tesla was making a ton of money selling expensive cars to high income buyers, and with essentially no BEV competition.  Now there is competition, and more affordable BEV options everywhere.  A struggling economy doesn’t help either.  In any case it doesn’t confirm that anyone is making huge profits on BEVs.  Longer term, it begs the question whether the industry will be more or less profitable when it’s nearly 100% BEV.

Stock prices nowadays have little to do with company health or performance.

[paintguy]

21 hours ago, bzcat said:

That's true... the only consistent thing about Ford's EV effort so far is they keep shooting too low and act surprised when people want to buy the damn car ?

 

It would be ironic if Ford's MEB end up being much better executed than VW. Same with Fisker Ocean, another MEB SUV that is highly anticipated and maybe more polished product than ID4.

 

Glad the demand has been greater than supply. Nothing kills profit more than overcapacity. Retooling a plant for 70 units per hour costs way more than for 50 jobs per hour. Having to idle or close a plant is devestating to workers and communities, bad publicity and the bottom line. Unfortunately has happened too often. Supply issues still hitting Ford and most other manufacturers hard. I'm retired now, but still hear of the short shifts, and down weeks, etc. Recall the after shift debreifings where the cost of lost production was prominently discussed. So, if you are a manager raised in that environment, the last thing you want to do is be responsible for inefficient operation. The other major sin is overproduction. Chrysler did this, to the point of disaster before Lee Iacocca became CEO. Led to huge carrying costs and discounted prices (buy a car, get a check). 

[akirby]

Let’s be real - nobody was sure how popular Mach-E and Lightning would be 3 years ago.  And higher capacity is expensive.  Better to undershoot keeping prices high then ramp up based on actual demand.  Yes you can leave money on the table but you also risk losing money if you overcommit.

[Rick73]

2 hours ago, akirby said:

Stock prices nowadays have little to do with company health or performance.

 

Very true, though I’m told major investors look at least 6~12 months ahead, which makes me wonder what they see in Tesla stock today compared to a year ago; and I mean beyond conditions affecting other auto companies that haven’t been hit as hard.

 

 

[paintguy]

35 minutes ago, Rick73 said:

 

Very true, though I’m told major investors look at least 6~12 months ahead, which makes me wonder what they see in Tesla stock today compared to a year ago; and I mean beyond conditions affecting other auto companies that haven’t been hit as hard.

 

 

I wonder how much of Tesla stock decline is due to Musk's sale of stock to finance Twitter acquisition. Most avoid large sales or purchases, particularly a signalled one like this to avoid influencing stock price. Also Musk went from being a darling of some inclined to buy BEVs to a demon. Will that impact sales? Desirability of the stock to green investors?

[mackinaw]

32 minutes ago, paintguy said:

I wonder how much of Tesla stock decline is due to Musk's sale of stock to finance Twitter acquisition. Most avoid large sales or purchases, particularly a signalled one like this to avoid influencing stock price. Also Musk went from being a darling of some inclined to buy BEVs to a demon. Will that impact sales? Desirability of the stock to green investors?

 

It doesn't help the stock price when the Elon sells $24 billion dollars of Tesla stock to fund his purchase of Twitter.  Elon is his worst enemy.  Investors like stability in a CEO, not some guy who is acting like a spoiled rich kid not knowing how to spend his money.  

[akirby]

1 hour ago, Rick73 said:

 

Very true, though I’m told major investors look at least 6~12 months ahead, which makes me wonder what they see in Tesla stock today compared to a year ago; and I mean beyond conditions affecting other auto companies that haven’t been hit as hard.

Only 1/3 of investors are long term investors.  Lots of day traders looking for quick profit and lots of emotional decisions.

[Captainp4]

11 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Oh, just saw Tesla stock down to $125……trying to control my schadenfreude, how low can it go…

Been buying on the way down the last couple weeks, taking a beating currently ? I'll keep averaging down, but.. oof
 

6 hours ago, Rick73 said:

 

I’m not surprised.  My personal opinion is that Tesla was making a ton of money selling expensive cars to high income buyers, and with essentially no BEV competition.  Now there is competition, and more affordable BEV options everywhere.  A struggling economy doesn’t help either.  In any case it doesn’t confirm that anyone is making huge profits on BEVs.  Longer term, it begs the question whether the industry will be more or less profitable when it’s nearly 100% BEV.

Betting on them being just fine in a year or so after all the Twitter noise dies down and economy starts recovering. Wild that they finally started making significant profits, huge growth yoy, and have one of the best margins in the industry and now the stock starts tanking when they're currently making a killing.
 

5 hours ago, akirby said:

Stock prices nowadays have little to do with company health or performance.

See above, everything all the haters have been saying for years about them not turning a profit is no longer true and now the stock starts to drop. Makes no sense.

[jpd80]

2 hours ago, Captainp4 said:

Been buying on the way down the last couple weeks, taking a beating currently ? I'll keep averaging down, but.. oof
 

Betting on them being just fine in a year or so after all the Twitter noise dies down and economy starts recovering. Wild that they finally started making significant profits, huge growth yoy, and have one of the best margins in the industry and now the stock starts tanking when they're currently making a killing.
 

See above, everything all the haters have been saying for years about them not turning a profit is no longer true and now the stock starts to drop. Makes no sense.

It’s all about Musk and Twitter, the world’s dumbest billionaire hasn’t worked out that Twitter was full of

people with left leaning opinions that supported green energy an  electric cars, Musk was their darling

until he turned into a king sized right wing nut bag.

 

The guy literally just blew something like $40 billion of his own and borrowed money to do something he didn’t have to and it’s hurting Tesla’ reputation 

 

So there’s that but you’re right, Tesla stock price will probably recover or keep heading for the floor.

Edited December 23, 2022 by jpd80

[tarheels23]

5 hours ago, akirby said:

Only 1/3 of investors are long term investors.  Lots of day traders looking for quick profit and lots of emotional decisions.

and some bet both ways, shorts and longs.  It is like playing checkers and playing give away, I just could never get that right  ?

[paintguy]

2 hours ago, jpd80 said:

It’s all about Musk and Twitter, the world’s dumbest billionaire hasn’t worked out that Twitter was full of

people with left leaning opinions that supported green energy an  electric cars, Musk was their darling

until he turned into a king sized right wing nut bag.

 

The guy literally just blew something like $40 billion of his own and borrowed money to do something he didn’t have to and it’s hurting Tesla’ reputation 

 

So there’s that but you’re right, Tesla stock price will probably recover or keep heading for the floor.

He may be the worlds dumbest billionaire, but I'm nearly certain he has lost more money in the last several months than what all of us who post here have ever had. And still has more money than all of us. 

[fuzzymoomoo]

2 hours ago, jpd80 said:

he turned into a king sized right wing nut bag.

No he didn’t. He’s always been very consistent in everything he’s said.

[jpd80]

25 minutes ago, paintguy said:

He may be the worlds dumbest billionaire, but I'm nearly certain he has lost more money in the last several months than what all of us who post here have ever had. And still has more money than all of us. 

He’s like the next door neighbour that wins $500 million lottery and sets fire to 3/4 of it,

sure, they still have more money than the rest of us but gee, what a waste

[jpd80]

34 minutes ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

No he didn’t. He’s always been very consistent in everything he’s said.

He changes his mind all the time, people just don’t want to see it,

 

[fuzzymoomoo]

43 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

He changes his mind all the time, people just don’t want to see it,

 

That doesn’t make him a “right wing nut bag” 

 

Opinions can change, that’s why opinions aren’t facts. 

[jpd80]

30 minutes ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

That doesn’t make him a “right wing nut bag” 

 

Opinions can change, that’s why opinions aren’t facts. 

Lately, Elon expressing opinions has cost him dearly, that’s a big difference compared  to the rest of us.

and that’s a fact.

Edited December 23, 2022 by jpd80

[fuzzymoomoo]

26 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

Lately, Elon expressing opinions has cost him dearly, that’s a big difference compared  to the rest of us.

and that’s a fact.

And it still doesn’t make him a right wing nut bag. Just because he’s more of a traditional liberal than the extremists in the media and Democratic Party doesn’t he’s right wing at all. 

[jpd80]

45 minutes ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

And it still doesn’t make him a right wing nut bag. 
 

withdrawn, I’ve sent you a PM

Edited December 24, 2022 by jpd80