Electric Vehicle Discussion Thread - Ford Related

[mackinaw]

12 hours ago, jpd80 said:

......I see the weather impacting much of America and pray you get to your destinations.....

 

The aftermath of our 20" + snowfall.

 

 

 

[paintguy]

4 hours ago, akirby said:

He was usually given the yearly budget based on what the business wanted to do as far as expanding locations or upgrading services and equipment.  The tricky part was absorbing unexpected changes and still trying to “land the plane” each year- hitting your budget target.  It gets tricky because there isn’t a bucket of money available at the beginning of the year - it comes from revenue each month so you have to match spending to the revenue stream and not spending enough is almost as bad as overspending.  Supply chain delays really threw a curve to the capital planners the last 2 years.

From the plant side, numerous proposals would be prepared. Some would be prepared, approved, and then canceled as conditions changed. Other times extra money was available for late year projects. Kept a few Christmas holidays extra busy. Grateful for some of the managers and particularly CEO Mulally who kept is out of bankruptcy during the Great Recession. 

[twintornados]

On 12/24/2022 at 10:32 AM, Rick73 said:

Due to cold weather, I received a request to reduce electricity power usage to help prevent rolling blackouts. 

 

ERCOT really needs to update their grid. And to think Elon moved his HQ there....

[Captainp4]

On 12/24/2022 at 9:33 AM, Flying68 said:

$TSLA is still trading at close to a 40x EPS multiple compared to ~20 for Toyota and ~10 for GM and Ford.  Much of their higher multiple had been predicated on their near monopoly in EV's and the promise of fully autonomous vehicles. As investors have not only seen increased competition and shrinking market share but also have come to realize that FSD will not ever be more than level 2 driver assistance for the foreseeable future, they have been driving the price down. Once the share price is around 25x EPS, it will be a buy.

 

Elmo's lack of focus on operating Tesla is not helping either. Tesla needs a full time CEO, not one running 2 other companies.

He did just fine running 4 companies and he'll do just fine running 5. Few more weeks/months of getting twitter fit and finding the right CEO to take over and his focus will move back to the biggest two. Not worried about $TSLA at all. He has the right people in place that they can run without him on the day to day.

[Rick73]

3 hours ago, twintornados said:

 

ERCOT really needs to update their grid. And to think Elon moved his HQ there....

 

At least ERCOT is moving in right direction, though maybe not fast enough to keep up with Texas population and business growth.  Texas is a business-friendly state by comparison, so I understand why Musk may prefer Tesla be out of Austin. 

 

In my opinion data for maximum power production can be misleading because solar and wind do not operate at full capacity 24-hours a day.  Installed peak capacity in Texas is much higher than available on average.  Real capacity is reported around 85,000 ~ 86,000 megawatts as far as I know.

 

You are correct that capacity is tight, so adding millions of BEVs will likely have consequences unless grid is upgraded that much more. 

[jpd80]

27 minutes ago, Rick73 said:

 

At least ERCOT is moving in right direction, though maybe not fast enough to keep up with Texas population and business growth.  Texas is a business-friendly state by comparison, so I understand why Musk may prefer Tesla be out of Austin. 

 

In my opinion data for maximum power production can be misleading because solar and wind do not operate at full capacity 24-hours a day.  Installed peak capacity in Texas is much higher than available on average.  Real capacity is reported around 85,000 ~ 86,000 megawatts as far as I know.

 

You are correct that capacity is tight, so adding millions of BEVs will likely have consequences unless grid is upgraded that much more. 

I’ve never understood why power utilities complain about increasing demand,

it’s like oil companies complaining about too many customers wanting more oil.

[Harley Lover]

10 hours ago, akirby said:

  GM going all in on Ultium sure hasn’t paid off yet so we’ll have to see what kind of advantage it gives them the next 2 years.

 

Anecdotally, I recently read that due to ongoing issues with chips and other supply chain issues, GM have pushed back their initial target for the onset of 'ongoing annual EV production' from end of '23 to mid '24 (I think I read initial target is annualized production of 5-600k units but then growing annually as more factories come online). Ford might inadvertently continue to benefit from supply chain issues at GM effectively slowing their progress in moving more fully to EV sales.

[silvrsvt]

On 12/24/2022 at 10:32 AM, Rick73 said:

Due to cold weather, I received a request to reduce electricity power usage to help prevent rolling blackouts.  Suggestions included delaying washing of dishes and clothes which are on 120V — 20A circuits.  Basically each uses about 1 kWh or less per cycle since they operate for less than an hour.  Morning news reported other areas of country actually required rolling blackouts to prevent total failure, so not as lucky.  

 

I know BEVs are practical most of the time, but do buyers purchase based on average needs or worst-case conditions?  As example, if buying a truck, I would only consider the one that can pull my heaviest trailer, up steepest road I drive, and on a hot day.  Similarly, do buyers require a BEV that can function like ICE in worst-case weather?

 

Regarding bulk adoption of BEVs, I expect a significant percentage of population will hesitate buying prior to grid upgrades first so that blackout warnings are a distant memory.  Idea of selling BEVs now and upgrading grid later probably doesn’t resonate well while having to cut back on heat.

 

I wouldn't read too much into that-I got something similar from JCPL

 

Frigid weather continues to impact our service territory along with much of the country, resulting in increased energy use as customers stay warm and gather for the holidays. PJM Interconnection, the electric grid operator for the region, is asking that customers take proactive steps to conserve electricity through 10:00 a.m. tomorrow, December 25.

Here are some simple ways you can reduce energy use:

If health permits, set thermostats at a lower temperature than usual.
Turn off non-essential appliances, equipment and electric lights – including holiday lights – that you do not need or are not using.
Postpone using major electric household appliances, such as stoves, dishwashers and clothes dryers.
Close curtains and blinds to retain warm air inside your home. 
PJM will continue to monitor conditions and will take additional actions if necessary, which may include the potential for short, rotating customer outages. Acting now to reduce the demand for electricity can help offset the need for additional actions later. Thanks for your help in conserving energy during this period of extreme cold. Stay safe! 

 

NJ produces 90% of our power between nuke and natural gas and JCPL offers very generous BEV incentives

 

https://www.firstenergycorp.com/newsroom/news_articles/jcp-l-launches-electric-vehicle-charging-incentive-program.html
 

[Rick73]

17 hours ago, jpd80 said:

I’ve never understood why power utilities complain about increasing demand,

it’s like oil companies complaining about too many customers wanting more oil.

 

I don’t understand details of how ERCOT works, but it does not appear to function like an oil company or auto manufacturer.  Exxon or Ford can expand and set prices as they want to be more competitive and become more profitable, but who does ERCOT compete with?  It’s a nonprofit organization that ultimately reports to the Governor and Texas Legislature.

 

https://www.ercot.com/files/docs/2019/09/17/Market_Structure_OnePager_FINAL_Revised.pdf

 

 

Something I had not previously considered is that when purchasing a BEV, one is essentially agreeing to buy its energy from the government.  With ICE if I don’t like Exxon price, quality or service, I can go across the street to Shell, Texaco, etc.  Same with Ford that if I don’t like their choices, I can buy GM, Honda, or Toyota.  There is inherent competition and I make the final decision.  While I can sign up for different electricity plans, I’m not sure it’s quite the same as buying gas for my car.  Power still comes from same transformer down the street.

 

Not saying this is a big deal since electrical energy for my house, which far exceeds what a BEV requires, is already under ERCOT control.

[Rick73]

12 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

I wouldn't read too much into that-I got something similar from JCPL

 

My wife spent a couple of days without power, and therefore no heat, in February 2021 during Texas freeze; so yeah, I take their warnings seriously.

[akirby]

1 hour ago, Rick73 said:

 

Something I had not previously considered is that when purchasing a BEV, one is essentially agreeing to buy its energy from the government.  With ICE if I don’t like Exxon price, quality or service, I can go across the street to Shell, Texaco, etc.  Same with Ford that if I don’t like their choices, I can buy GM, Honda, or Toyota.  There is inherent competition and I make the final decision.  While I can sign up for different electricity plans, I’m not sure it’s quite the same as buying gas for my car.  Power still comes from same transformer down the street.

 

Not saying this is a big deal since electrical energy for my house, which far exceeds what a BEV requires, is already under ERCOT control.

Conversely electric rates don’t fluctuate like gas prices.  While you may have a choice of gas brands or locations the prices are pretty much the same.

[Rick73]

2 hours ago, akirby said:

Conversely electric rates don’t fluctuate like gas prices.  While you may have a choice of gas brands or locations the prices are pretty much the same.

 

My initial concern was that governments will have an easier path to control transportation energy usage by controlling prices.  What would prevent a state like Texas from charging more per kWh, similar to an added tax.  Then I realized they could already add additional tax to gas and diesel just as easily, so not that different.

 

Where there could be differences is if politicians decided to limit energy usage by charging on a progressive scale; the more you use the more costly it gets per unit.  With gas it’s the same per gallon whether I use 20 or 200 gallons a week.  However, with home electricity use that is metered, I can imagine someone may eventually want to discourage wastefulness.  Not that it’s all bad to conserve, but potentially moving further from free markets makes me a little more hesitant/nervous.

 

[jasonj80]

16 hours ago, Rick73 said:

 

My initial concern was that governments will have an easier path to control transportation energy usage by controlling prices.  What would prevent a state like Texas from charging more per kWh, similar to an added tax.  Then I realized they could already add additional tax to gas and diesel just as easily, so not that different.

 

Where there could be differences is if politicians decided to limit energy usage by charging on a progressive scale; the more you use the more costly it gets per unit.  With gas it’s the same per gallon whether I use 20 or 200 gallons a week.  However, with home electricity use that is metered, I can imagine someone may eventually want to discourage wastefulness.  Not that it’s all bad to conserve, but potentially moving further from free markets makes me a little more hesitant/nervous.

 

They already do that, you can opt in to programs that you pay different prices based on time of day use. Others have if you use over a certain amount the additional kW will charged at a higher rate. 
 

Some programs go even farther where you lose control of your thermostat during high demand times and the utility can change the temperature in exchange for lower rates. 
 

At some point these programs will move from optional to mandatory and in some areas have already become mandatory.

[ANTAUS]

I bought a rental that had this "on demand" system, where the local power utility monitors the usage and will "throttle" accordingly.  I was doing electrical work while remodeling the house.. and removed the gas Water heater that had this "power usage monitor" Doohickey to install an on demand tankless type...(I dont do gas...appliances and home insurance is much more), here we are like 12 years later, and 3 tenants later, and each electric bill related to that house has a "credit" for that doo-hickey I removed long ago and threw away.  Not sure how those things work in other states...for me here locally, it was laughable.  OH and the savings is like 11-16 monthly as a credit on whichever tenant is living in the house. Not sure how it even works, not like they had wifi back then when installed.

[silvrsvt]

On 12/27/2022 at 6:49 AM, jasonj80 said:

They already do that, you can opt in to programs that you pay different prices based on time of day use. Others have if you use over a certain amount the additional kW will charged at a higher rate. 
 

Some programs go even farther where you lose control of your thermostat during high demand times and the utility can change the temperature in exchange for lower rates. 
 

At some point these programs will move from optional to mandatory and in some areas have already become mandatory.

I saw that NY is banning the installation of oil and natural gas furnaces in 2025 and is requiring replacement of those units starting in 2030 when they fail. They want people to move to heat pump or geothermal units, which I know the installation of geothermal is big bucks and heat pump units are fine till you get to 40 or then you need an additional heating element (which would be electric in this case) and make your electrical bill 2-3x more expensive when the temps are under 30 degrees. 

[akirby]

1 hour ago, silvrsvt said:

I saw that NY is banning the installation of oil and natural gas furnaces in 2025 and is requiring replacement of those units starting in 2030 when they fail. They want people to move to heat pump or geothermal units, which I know the installation of geothermal is big bucks and heat pump units are fine till you get to 40 or then you need an additional heating element (which would be electric in this case) and make your electrical bill 2-3x more expensive when the temps are under 30 degrees. 

Actually new heat pumps can work well below freezing.  My little workshop mini split was putting out some heat when it was single digits last week.

 

But you definitely need electric backup.

[hand-filer]

1 hour ago, akirby said:

Actually new heat pumps can work well below freezing.  My little workshop mini split was putting out some heat when it was single digits last week.

 

But you definitely need electric backup.

They have come a long way. Mine is rated for -30 C.

[blazerdude20]

2 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

I saw that NY is banning the installation of oil and natural gas furnaces in 2025 and is requiring replacement of those units starting in 2030 when they fail. They want people to move to heat pump or geothermal units, which I know the installation of geothermal is big bucks and heat pump units are fine till you get to 40 or then you need an additional heating element (which would be electric in this case) and make your electrical bill 2-3x more expensive when the temps are under 30 degrees. 

This is no longer accurate. You can extract heat from a heat pump well below 0 degrees.  

[silvrsvt]

Yeah, of course I looked into it and they are far better then they where. I have a friend who is in the rental business and was telling me about the unit they have at a property and I'm guessing it was an older unit and my old man, who used to do HVAC said to say away from them when I was looking at houses.

[passis]

Ford, SK said to cancel Turkey battery joint venture plan

The plant would be one of the largest EV battery facilities in Europe and Turkey.

 

https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/ford-sk-said-cancel-turkey-battery-joint-venture-plan

[Captainp4]

Saw this on twitter this morning, wonder what it looks like if only showing EV? F had the largest growth in EV I think

[akirby]

40 minutes ago, Captainp4 said:

Saw this on twitter this morning, wonder what it looks like if only showing EV? F had the largest growth in EV I think

Tesla would still be up only 44%, but Ford was up 233%!!!  Ford is killing Tesla!

 

And this is why percentages are almost worthless.

[ThomasGT]

On 12/25/2022 at 10:43 PM, Rick73 said:

 

At least ERCOT is moving in right direction, though maybe not fast enough to keep up with Texas population and business growth.  Texas is a business-friendly state by comparison, so I understand why Musk may prefer Tesla be out of Austin. 

 

In my opinion data for maximum power production can be misleading because solar and wind do not operate at full capacity 24-hours a day.  Installed peak capacity in Texas is much higher than available on average.  Real capacity is reported around 85,000 ~ 86,000 megawatts as far as I know.

 

You are correct that capacity is tight, so adding millions of BEVs will likely have consequences unless grid is upgraded that much more.  

 

I think that this problem has been known for a long time and a solution will be found when the load increases.

[Captainp4]

1 hour ago, akirby said:

Tesla would still be up only 44%, but Ford was up 233%!!!  Ford is killing Tesla!

 

And this is why percentages are almost worthless.

Especially pandemic percentages and ramp up for the newcomers with smaller overall numbers, but still thought it was worth seeing. Percentages of segment probably more useful in these times.

 

[akirby]

1 hour ago, Captainp4 said:

Especially pandemic percentages and ramp up for the newcomers with smaller overall numbers, but still thought it was worth seeing. Percentages of segment probably more useful in these times.

Or any month/year that has temporary changes in demand.  E.g. you’re at 200k units for several years, the supply chain causes it to drop to 100k.  Next year it’s back to 200K which is normal volume but if you only look at previous year then sales were up 100%!  It would be much more useful to see a rolling 5 year window or some type of multi time period average not just previous month or year.