Electric Vehicle Discussion Thread - Ford Related

[FordBuyer]

27 minutes ago, akirby said:

I’m not saying this isn’t solveable or that we shouldn’t do anything.  I’m just pointing out problems that need to be solved before we can go 100% bev.

 

If I live in an apartment and I’m almost empty and plan to stop to charge on the way to work and there is a 2 hour rolling blackout I’m screwed.  Or an extended multi day blackout like Texas last year.  Why doesn’t matter when you’re sitting on E and have no way to refuel.

 

Stop thinking only about urban areas and houses with overnight charging and solar power and think of all the people in rural areas especially in the rural South and the Plains.  You can’t go 100% BEV without solving their problems too.

 

Ford is using the "electrified vehicle" label when giving its monthly sales report. That includes hybrid, plugin, and full electric vehicles. So going forward, that number is and will grow exponentially over the next 15 years or so. Who knows if Ford will go full electric across its lineup forever. Gas stations aren't going anywhere.

 

All we know is that "electric vehicle" lineup is growing and will continue to grow. Hybrids will fit any environment....rural or urban, apartment or single family home.

 

Since we live in a petroleum based world, oil will be with us for our lives anyway. Plastics, asphalt, roof shingles, you name it. 

[akirby]

27 minutes ago, FordBuyer said:

Who knows if Ford will go full electric across its lineup 

But that’s what the governments and BEV advocates are pushing for - 100% BEVs in the near future.   Huge difference between 50% or 75% and 100% in terms of the problems that need to be solved.

[bzcat]

1 hour ago, akirby said:

I’m not saying this isn’t solveable or that we shouldn’t do anything.  I’m just pointing out problems that need to be solved before we can go 100% bev.

 

If I live in an apartment and I’m almost empty and plan to stop to charge on the way to work and there is a 2 hour rolling blackout I’m screwed.  Or an extended multi day blackout like Texas last year.  Why doesn’t matter when you’re sitting on E and have no way to refuel.

 

Stop thinking only about urban areas and houses with overnight charging and solar power and think of all the people in rural areas especially in the rural South and the Plains.  You can’t go 100% BEV without solving their problems too.

 

If you are sitting on E, blackouts also means you can't get gas so that is not any different than having an EV. So not sure why we must use this extreme example only in the context of EV. 

 

I didn't say anything about 100% BEV. It will take about 30 years for most of the ICE cars to be phased out. Also PHEV will be around in one form or another probably for another 50 years. 

 

I also didn't say anything about urban vs. rural. I agree with you rural area lags behind but that's true pretty much of everything involving new technology or adapting new services. The 80/20 rules apply here - you can solve 80% of problem relatively quickly but the last 20% is going to take most of the effort. But fortunately, pretty much every small town in the US has electricity last time I checked. We are not talking about building any infrastructure from scratch like we are doing with highspeed rail for example.

[rperez817]

3 hours ago, FordBuyer said:

Who knows if Ford will go full electric across its lineup forever.

 

Ford knows. Here are the milestones that Ford committed to achieving over the next 2 decades. All are in line with regulatory actions throughout the world.

• 2024, 100% of commercial vehicle range in Europe will be all-electric or plug-in hybrid
• 2026, 100% of passenger vehicle range in Europe will be all-electric or plug-in hybrid
• 2030, 100% of both commercial and passenger vehicles in Europe will be all-electric
• 2035, 100% of both commercial and passenger vehicles in all of Ford's leading markets will be ZEV (almost certainly 100% BEV, as Ford isn't keen on FCEV)
• 2040, 100% ZEV everywhere Ford does business

Edited November 18, 2021 by rperez817

[llinthicum1]

As you said these are milestone dates, nothing binding.  In 10-20 years the huddles that BEVs have to get over may be resolved - range, long charging times, short battery life, lack of infrastructure.  Changes in battery technology will be important, who knows what it will look like by 2030 or 2040.  But in the end, consumers will make final decision.   

[akirby]

7 hours ago, bzcat said:

 

I didn't say anything about 100% BEV. It will take about 30 years for most of the ICE cars to be phased out. Also PHEV will be around in one form or another probably for another 50 years. 

But that’s exactly what governments and most automakers are saying - 100% BEVs by 2030 or 2035.  Not HEV or PHEV.  
 

And you said exactly what I said - you can get to a high number like 80% in that time frame pretty easily but the last 20% will be damn near impossible without huge advances in technology and infrastructure buildout.  

[FordBuyer]

52 minutes ago, akirby said:

But that’s exactly what governments and most automakers are saying - 100% BEVs by 2030 or 2035.  Not HEV or PHEV.  
 

And you said exactly what I said - you can get to a high number like 80% in that time frame pretty easily but the last 20% will be damn near impossible without huge advances in technology and infrastructure buildout.  

 

I would still say it's a goal, not a guarantee. Similar to carbon zero goals. Always good to have goals even if you can't get there. Goals are motivating and do mean improvement. I'm sure Ford sets all kinds of goals on a weekly basis. The government has hard enough time setting vaccination mandates let alone BEV ones.

[Flying68]

100% EV goal is for new production. I have not read or seen anything mandating destruction or outlawing ICE vehicles except for certain urban centers. Some in Europe already are mandating no ICE use by a certain time frame.

[rperez817]

16 minutes ago, Flying68 said:

100% EV goal is for new production. I have not read or seen anything mandating destruction or outlawing ICE vehicles except for certain urban centers. 

 

Yes sir Flying68, you are correct. The 100% ZEV metrics mentioned by automakers including Ford and by governments do not refer to all vehicles in operation, only new vehicle production. However, like you mentioned the use of ICE vehicles, particularly older ones, may be banned in city centers. Also, increased taxation and registration fees for ICE vehicles in the very near future are almost inevitable.

 

[jpd80]

Food for thought,

Number of road registered vehicles in:

- Europe is 292 million 

- USA is 282 million

- China is 297 million

 

Those three population centers are going to take a long time to switch over to anything like full BEV

especially when we consider how many vehicles are sold each year in those locations.

[FordBuyer]

9 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

Yes sir Flying68, you are correct. The 100% ZEV metrics mentioned by automakers including Ford and by governments do not refer to all vehicles in operation, only new vehicle production. However, like you mentioned the use of ICE vehicles, particularly older ones, may be banned in city centers. Also, increased taxation and registration fees for ICE vehicles in the very near future are almost inevitable.

 

 

Good luck on all that. Massive litigation going all the way up to the Supreme Court. Americans especially don't like being told what to do as we have witnessed recently. We won't even get into the classic car industry that is a billion dollar+ industry. 

[akirby]

12 minutes ago, FordBuyer said:

 

Good luck on all that. Massive litigation going all the way up to the Supreme Court. Americans especially don't like being told what to do as we have witnessed recently. We won't even get into the classic car industry that is a billion dollar+ industry. 

Oh they’ll do everything possible to get the old ICE vehicles off the road.  Remember cash for clunkers?

[silvrsvt]

27 minutes ago, akirby said:

Oh they’ll do everything possible to get the old ICE vehicles off the road.  Remember cash for clunkers?

 

Define old? Your talking about banning vehicles that are 20-30-40-50 years old? Cars from the 1980s are popular with my generation now since that is what we grew up with...so they are going to ban the part time use of ICE powered cars? I don't see that happening.

 

ICE will eventually age out from the used car market by themselves 

[llinthicum1]

Penalties on owners of ICE vehicles to force them into BEV vehicles is a sure way to delay the acceptance of BEVs.  People won't even take a vaccine that can keep them healthy and maybe save their lives because someone is telling them they have to.   People aren't going to give up their ICE cars; e.g. Mustang owners.  In fact, ICE cars may appreciate in value.   Consumers will decide to buy a BEV when they determine it's a better alternative to whatever they are currently driving.  And don't forget, depending on which political party is in power will determine the laws and regulations that impact on how fast or slow we migrate to BEVs.  

Edited November 19, 2021 by llinthicum1

[rperez817]

Good news for Ford Mustang Mach-E. Consumer Reports just released results of its 2021 Automotive Reliability Survey. Mustang Mach-E rated "better than average" for reliability in its 1st model year. This is the first time in a while (if not ever) that an all new or completely redesigned Ford product managed to do that. 

 

With its high road test score, above average reliability, and excellent owner satisfaction, Mustang Mach-E is now a Consumer Reports "Recommended" and "Green" choice and has one of the highest overall scores of any BEV from any manufacturer.

 

Hopefully all upcoming Ford BEV will exhibit the same attention to detail that Mustang Mach-E does.

 

[FordBuyer]

40 minutes ago, llinthicum1 said:

Penalties on owners of ICE vehicles to force them into BEV vehicles is a sure way to delay the acceptance of BEVs.  People won't even take a vaccine that can keep them healthy and maybe save their lives because someone is telling them they have to.   People aren't going to give up their ICE cars; e.g. Mustang owners.  In fact, ICE cars may appreciate in value.   Consumers will decide to buy a BEV when they determine it's a better alternative to whatever they are currently driving.  And don't forget, depending on which political party is in power will determine the laws and regulations that impact on how fast or slow we migrate to BEVs.  

 

Good points all. I hope BEVs take off, but prices will have to come down.

 

Certainly there are real advantages to owning a BEV....charging at home for some, instant torque, no emissions, quiet running, no oil changes and far less maintenance overall, roomier interior and more storage, better handling with battery low in chassis, and so on.

 

So over time looks like BEVs will start to dominate the market if the technology becomes more affordable. Instead of mandates, hopefully everyone will want one based on above strengths. And auto companies want to build only what sells. I agree that someday ICE will become obsolete. How and when are the only questions. 

 

If the technology is breakthrough and wanted by everyone and affordable like Flat screen TVs, then mandates will not be needed. That is my hope anyway.

 

Right now, only upscale consumers are buying them and more importantly can afford to buy them. You also have to be in a position to itemize deductions to get the full discount from the government. So forcing people from ICE into BEVs will not work right now for sure. The average price of a Model 3, Y, Mach E is over $50,000 and again many people don't itemize. Those who live in apartments and guys like me who paid cash for my house don't itemize. That BEV subsidy needs to be changed. I know it's in the bill that passed today, but who knows if it becomes law.

[akirby]

1 hour ago, silvrsvt said:

 

Define old? Your talking about banning vehicles that are 20-30-40-50 years old? Cars from the 1980s are popular with my generation now since that is what we grew up with...so they are going to ban the part time use of ICE powered cars? I don't see that happening.

 

ICE will eventually age out from the used car market by themselves 

Actually I meant anything with an engine.  Not saying that will happen but once they get to 100% new vehicles as BEVs the next step will be to get rid of existing ICE vehicles as fast as possible to “save the planet”.

[bzcat]

13 hours ago, akirby said:

But that’s exactly what governments and most automakers are saying - 100% BEVs by 2030 or 2035.  Not HEV or PHEV.  
 

And you said exactly what I said - you can get to a high number like 80% in that time frame pretty easily but the last 20% will be damn near impossible without huge advances in technology and infrastructure buildout.  

 

Most car companies are saying no more ICE by 2035 or so because that's when they think demand will dry up. Existing ICE vehicles will be around for a long time.

[mackinaw]

Wonder how long it will be for the greenies to start shaming anybody who buys an ICE powered vehicle.  Five years?  Ten years?  Now?

[rperez817]

21 minutes ago, akirby said:

Actually I meant anything with an engine.  Not saying that will happen but once they get to 100% new vehicles as BEVs the next step will be to get rid of existing ICE vehicles as fast as possible to “save the planet”.

 

16 minutes ago, bzcat said:

Most car companies are saying no more ICE by 2035 or so because that's when they think demand will dry up. Existing ICE vehicles will be around for a long time.

 

By the 2035 timeframe, automakers and aftermarket companies should have lots of offerings to convert older ICE vehicles including classics and antiques to EV. Ford's Eluminator electric crate motor shown at SEMA a couple weeks ago was a hit.

 

[RedHoncho01]

10 minutes ago, mackinaw said:

Wonder how long it will be for the greenies to start shaming anybody who buys an ICE powered vehicle.  Five years?  Ten years?  Now?

Probably longer than the ICE maniacs took to block charging stations and roll smoke on EVs. ?

[FordBuyer]

12 minutes ago, bzcat said:

 

Most car companies are saying no more ICE by 2035 or so because that's when they think demand will dry up. Existing ICE vehicles will be around for a long time.

 

Again, the big word is AFFORDABILITY. You can't force consumers to buy what they can't afford. You just create a black market for ICE parts a la Cuba to keep those cars on the road forever. I get it that we are running out of time with climate change, but you can't push a square peg into a round hole. 2035 sounds like a good goal, but so much more needs to be done to get there. And so many assumptions like environmentalists running Congress for the next 15 years. 

[rperez817]

12 minutes ago, mackinaw said:

Wonder how long it will be for the greenies to start shaming anybody who buys an ICE powered vehicle.  Five years?  Ten years?  Now?

 

The shame won't be directed at consumers, but at automakers that make excuses for not going "all in" with BEV, which includes setting milestones for eliminating ICE from their product lineups.

[mackinaw]

14 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

The shame won't be directed at consumers, but at automakers that make excuses for not going "all in" with BEV, which includes setting milestones for eliminating ICE from their product lineups.

 

Remember when the Ford Excursion came out back in 1999?  There were articles in Automotive News about customers being shamed by Sierra Club types for buying such a large SUV.

[llinthicum1]

A base Mustang GT (ICE) is about $39,000.  A base Mustang Ecoboost (ICE) is about $30,000.   Price has always been a strong point for the Mustang.  Performance at an affordable price.  If Ford comes out with a BEV Mustang Coupe (2 Door) with 350 hp - 480 hp and does not weigh over two tons (like the Mach-e) and an affordable price, then Ford will have a winner!!  Talking about 1964 1/2 all over again!!  It may be a while, since I read that the current Mach-e platform would have to be switched out to support a 2 Door Coupe / Convertible, possibly a 4 Door Sedan, and a SUV.