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Farley: Ford to double EV production capacity in two years


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The concern I have  is 2022 production of Lightning was only slated to be 15,000. If there’s any chance of delays or problems with supplies of frames or batteries, then that could easily delay Lightning to 2023 and a slower increase in production…..

 

Maybe that’s overly pessimistic but I’m waiting for the other shoe to drop with continuing supplier issues,

Farley is painting a lot of blue sky here when Ford can’t get ICE production sorted yet……

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Agree. At least he's acknowledging the need for more capacity sooner; as you've noted many times in the past, plans are changed so frequently it's hard to keep up, so I like to create a record of what's been stated publicly for reference. 

 

I think another motivation hovering in the background is the upcoming introduction of the Silverado EV (early next year?). It will be on a chassis similar to what Ford intend to use for gen 2 Lightning (i.e. a bespoke truck EV chassis), and I can see where Farley doesn't want to lose a single sale to GM until the Tennessee facility is up and running. I don't know if GM have announced timing for Silverado EV, but I imagine Farley is pushing the troops to stay ahead of GM in this critical market.

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Correct. Ford went for a transitional Lightning because that gets them in the BEV  competition quicker while they play catch up in the background. Ford is stuck in fantasyland, thinking that Lightning won’t impact on ICE F150  production because those Lightning buyers are all coming from non-Ford brands but the truth is that those Lightning reservations stirred up a hornets nest, Ford was completely unprepared for the strong market response  and I think that completing those orders is beyond Ford’s  constrained abilities.

 

Sorry to be a nay sayer here but I see big issues with Ford following through on this in a timely fashion.

Edited by jpd80
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43 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

Correct. Ford went for a transitional Lightning because that gets them in the BEV  competition quicker while they play catch up in the background. Ford is stuck in fantasyland, thinking that Lightning won’t impact on ICE F150  production because those Lightning buyers are all coming from non-Ford brands but the truth is that those Lightning reservations stirred up a hornets nest, Ford was completely unprepared for the strong market response  and I think that completing those orders is beyond Ford’s  constrained abilities.

 

Sorry to be a nay sayer here but I see big issues with Ford following through on this in a timely fashion.

 

Good points jpd80 sir. Hopefully Ford seriously considers the issues you mentioned. At the same time, it's good to see Ford doing its best to gain first mover advantage in the BEV pickup truck market with F-150 Lightning. If they do follow through in a timely fashion and get the details right with F-150 Lightning, Ford will have very bright prospects in an automotive industry future defined by 100% electric vehicles.

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4 hours ago, jpd80 said:

The concern I have  is 2022 production of Lightning was only slated to be 15,000. If there’s any chance of delays or problems with supplies of frames or batteries, then that could easily delay Lightning to 2023 and a slower increase in production…..

 

Maybe that’s overly pessimistic but I’m waiting for the other shoe to drop with continuing supplier issues,

Farley is painting a lot of blue sky here when Ford can’t get ICE production sorted yet……

 

Eh, F-150 is the crown jewel, they usually pull out all the stops for it.  I'd imagine the same would be true for Lightning.

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4 hours ago, jpd80 said:

The concern I have  is 2022 production of Lightning was only slated to be 15,000. If there’s any chance of delays or problems with supplies of frames or batteries, then that could easily delay Lightning to 2023 and a slower increase in production…..

 

Maybe that’s overly pessimistic but I’m waiting for the other shoe to drop with continuing supplier issues,

Farley is painting a lot of blue sky here when Ford can’t get ICE production sorted yet……

 

Yeah, you gotta walk at least before you can run. Ford as yet hasn't proven yet it can build more than  15,000 electrified vehicles/month yet. Try to buy any Ford electrified vehicle right now......you will wait many months except for the Mach E. Mullinax has 7 sitting on lot.

 

But no Powerboosts or Escape hybrids and plugins. And Maverick hybrid sold out for 2022. Ford just can't produce that many right now....probably supply constrained for at least 2 more years for any electrified component parts.

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3 hours ago, FordBuyer said:

 

Yeah, you gotta walk at least before you can run. Ford as yet hasn't proven yet it can build more than  15,000 electrified vehicles/month yet. Try to buy any Ford electrified vehicle right now......you will wait many months except for the Mach E. Mullinax has 7 sitting on lot.

 

But no Powerboosts or Escape hybrids and plugins. And Maverick hybrid sold out for 2022. Ford just can't produce that many right now....probably supply constrained for at least 2 more years for any electrified component parts.

And this is why Farley threw out the 600,000 number, this is Ford talking up what it wants to achieve on “the other side” of this current supply shortage. It achieved a wow moment for Ford but the reality is that the next six months or so is probably going to be more of the same with vehicle supplies. They gotta resume normal production first before getting Lightning off the ground.

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9 hours ago, jpd80 said:

The concern I have  is 2022 production of Lightning was only slated to be 15,000. If there’s any chance of delays or problems with supplies of frames or batteries, then that could easily delay Lightning to 2023 and a slower increase in production…..

 

Maybe that’s overly pessimistic but I’m waiting for the other shoe to drop with continuing supplier issues,

Farley is painting a lot of blue sky here when Ford can’t get ICE production sorted yet……

 

Previous report said 15k in 2022, 55k in 2023, 80k in 2024. But that was before Farley said Ford is going to 600k in 24 months (which means end of 2023 calendar year). Obviously, F-150 is going to be a significant part of that 600k number. 

 

I have to think that for Farley to come out and say something like that, it means Ford think it can comfortably deliver a lot more than 55k F-150 in 2023. This is Ford not Tesla so CEO's forward looking statement should be considered guidance in compliance with SEC, not Elon's outburst of insanity. 

Edited by bzcat
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4 hours ago, bzcat said:

 

Previous report said 15k in 2022, 55k in 2023, 80k in 2024. But that was before Farley said Ford is going to 600k in 24 months (which means end of 2023 calendar year). Obviously, F-150 is going to be a significant part of that 600k number. 

 

I have to think that for Farley to come out and say something like that, it means Ford think it can comfortably deliver a lot more than 55k F-150 in 2023. This is Ford not Tesla so CEO's forward looking statement should be considered guidance in compliance with SEC, not Elon's outburst of insanity. 

That was more of a forecast which can and do change closer to target. There are many instances where things have been said and then walked back later, all I’m saying is that given current circumstances, it is possible that production of Lightning could be adversely affected in 2022, not saying it will but the possibility is there.

 

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On 11/23/2021 at 9:22 AM, jpd80 said:

Correct. Ford went for a transitional Lightning because that gets them in the BEV  competition quicker while they play catch up in the background. Ford is stuck in fantasyland, thinking that Lightning won’t impact on ICE F150  production because those Lightning buyers are all coming from non-Ford brands but the truth is that those Lightning reservations stirred up a hornets nest, Ford was completely unprepared for the strong market response  and I think that completing those orders is beyond Ford’s  constrained abilities.

 

Sorry to be a nay sayer here but I see big issues with Ford following through on this in a timely fashion.

There is always an initial surge in interest when something new comes out.  Question is can Ford (and GM for that matter) keep up the momentum.  There are still major issues with charging infrastructure, customer acceptance, and resale values.  

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On 11/23/2021 at 8:44 PM, jpd80 said:

That was more of a forecast which can and do change closer to target. There are many instances where things have been said and then walked back later, all I’m saying is that given current circumstances, it is possible that production of Lightning could be adversely affected in 2022, not saying it will but the possibility is there.

 

Ford has done a lot of walking back of new product over the years.

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58 minutes ago, Footballfan said:

There is always an initial surge in interest when something new comes out.  Question is can Ford (and GM for that matter) keep up the momentum.  There are still major issues with charging infrastructure, customer acceptance, and resale values.  

 

I think pulling it off will be difficult for every traditional auto company including the upstarts. Brilliant new product that is sold out years in advance.....Bronco, Maverick  hybrid, F150 Powerboost, and now the Lightning. It will take Ford at least 2 years to even fill the initial orders. Not sure on the Transit EV, but around here hard to find even the ICE Transit. So it will be years before Ford supply of electric vehicles catch up with customer demand. Add in supply shortages in general and lag time stretches even more. 

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2 hours ago, Footballfan said:

Question is can Ford (and GM for that matter) keep up the momentum.  There are still major issues with charging infrastructure, customer acceptance, and resale values.  

 

If Ford is going to survive over the next 20 to 30 years, it will have to keep up the momentum, and also address the issues you mentioned. Fortunately, Jim Farley is the kind of businessman who can make that happen.

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The one thing to keep in mind that many of the shortages that we have been dealing with are from snap decisions made in March of 2020 and the fire at the plant in Japan that affected Ford the most. 
 

Given that the lightning has been in development for a while now and the orders submitted to

Sub manufacturers during COVID, I don’t see as much of an impact like we’ve seen with other products.  

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14 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

The one thing to keep in mind that many of the shortages that we have been dealing with are from snap decisions made in March of 2020 and the fire at the plant in Japan that affected Ford the most. 
 

Given that the lightning has been in development for a while now and the orders submitted to

Sub manufacturers during COVID, I don’t see as much of an impact like we’ve seen with other products.  

The question is whether they can do the supply ramp up required to follow Ford’s accelerated delivery plans for Lightning

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10 hours ago, jpd80 said:

The question is whether they can do the supply ramp up required to follow Ford’s accelerated delivery plans for Lightning

 

Ford may already be doing preparations in terms of supply and production planning for F-150 Lightning. With F-150 Lightning being Ford's most important new product introduction in the 21st century by far, and with Ford as a company being "all in" with BEV, Ford executives know that they can't afford to mess it up.

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23 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

Ford may already be doing preparations in terms of supply and production planning for F-150 Lightning. With F-150 Lightning being Ford's most important new product introduction in the 21st century by far, and with Ford as a company being "all in" with BEV, Ford executives know that they can't afford to mess it up.

Even with the modified plan, they’re only looking at around 2,000/mth in 2022, maybe 4,500/mth in 2023 and 6,600/ mth in 2024. To be serious with delivering the expected amounts, they need to be around 10,000/mth but I don’t see that happening for a number of reasons, the main ones being the supply of batteries from SKI and availability of frames, let alone production space - the facilities they picked at Dearborn is just too busy to accommodate that kind of increase in line speed. I suppose it’s possible but it sounds like a massive uptick unless they build at two locations (KCAP?)
 

They went out fishing and landed a whale

Edited by jpd80
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On 11/28/2021 at 9:04 AM, rperez817 said:

 

Ford may already be doing preparations in terms of supply and production planning for F-150 Lightning. With F-150 Lightning being Ford's most important new product introduction in the 21st century by far, and with Ford as a company being "all in" with BEV, Ford executives know that they can't afford to mess it up.

 

With Rivian in "production hell" right now and sending out delays on weekly basis, I would bet Ford Lightening easily outproduces Rivian pickup in 2022. Ford should easily be able to produce 30,000-50,000 Lightenings for next year, easily beating what Rivian can do with production hell not abating anytime soon. Ford proved it can do those numbers with the Mach E. 

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5 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Even with the modified plan, they’re only looking at around 2,000/mth in 2022, maybe 4,500/mth in 2023 and 6,600/ mth in 2024. To be serious with delivering the expected amounts, they need to be around 10,000/mth but I don’t see that happening for a number of reasons, the main ones being the supply of batteries from SKI and availability of frames, let alone production space - the facilities they picked at Dearborn is just too busy to accommodate that kind of increase in line speed. I suppose it’s possible but it sounds like a massive uptick unless they build at two locations (KCAP?)
 

They went out fishing and landed a whale

 

The SK plant in Georgia will open next year to supply batteries for F-150. So I think Ford knows it can scale up if it needs to do. 

 

The issue seems to be the separate production line setup in Detroit to build Lightning is limited and not scalable. At least reading between the lines. So I think it's likely that Ford is seriously thinking about building Lightning at KCAP. That's the only way to jump from 80k to 150k+ volume by end of 2023.

 

Agree that they were thinking a nice barramundi but landed a blue whale. 

Edited by bzcat
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6 hours ago, bzcat said:

 

The SK plant in Georgia will open next year to supply batteries for F-150. So I think Ford knows it can scale up if it needs to do. 

 

The issue seems to be the separate production line setup in Detroit to build Lightning is limited and not scalable. At least reading between the lines. So I think it's likely that Ford is seriously thinking about building Lightning at KCAP. That's the only way to jump from 80k to 150k+ volume by end of 2023.

 

Agree that they were thinking a nice barramundi but landed a blue whale. 

At least Farley has recognised the significance of responding quickly and actually doing something including spending serious money to jack up production, let’s see how Ford goes when they know they have a slam dunk production and sales deal.

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3 hours ago, ausrutherford said:

Is there room to build what amounts to a third plant at KCAP?

 

I bet there is room at Rouge considering how much land Ford has there. 

As mentioned earlier, Farley said the issue was final assembly room, I suspect that bzcat was correct regarding KCAP being included but we’ll see…

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