Sandy Munro’s dire warning

[akirby]

41 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

Not sure how we are going to get sub 20K BEVs

The Average cost of a new car 21 years ago was about $21K

 

Today its $45,031

 

The average is up because of more high end vehicles,  there are still lots of vehicles available in the low $20ks.  You have to replace that part of the market.

[silvrsvt]

32 minutes ago, akirby said:

The average is up because of more high end vehicles,  there are still lots of vehicles available in the low $20ks.  You have to replace that part of the market.

 

Not really, pricing in the market has gone up and up with each generation. 

 

Looking at the Explorer-

2002 Limited base price was 32,545

 

Today its $45,430

 

Yeah its moved up in market also, but a cheap car today is around 20K

A cheap car 15 years ago was half that-I'm talking stripper models.

An "average" car like an Escape is in the mid to high 20K range. 

[bzcat]

1 hour ago, silvrsvt said:

Not sure how we are going to get sub 20K BEVs

The Average cost of a new car 21 years ago was about $21K

 

Today its $45,031

 

I can see them maybe a profit at 25-30K mark without any government subsidies  

 

Same way there are ICE cars that cost $20k when the average cost is $45k. You make them smaller and less powerful. It's not rocket science. Look at Dacia (Renault) Spring for example. Around €17k MSRP in Europe before subsidy and already one of the top selling EV in Europe since it was launched earlier this year. 

 

 

 

But honestly, there may not be a market for those kind of car in the US... a bit too small. Agree with you $25-30k is probably the bottom of the EV market in the US. Nissan Leaf and Chevy Bolt are already in that price range before tax credit. More will join in a few years once every OEM launch their $45k EV, they will move down the price/size range.

 

In Europe and China, for sure. GM is selling tons of sub-$20k EV (GM is the global leader in cheap EV with Wuling Mini). Renault is also selling lots of EV in this price range (Zoe and Spring). VW is about to launch ID.2 which will also be in this price range. And I'm sure Hyundai and Stellantis are not going to sit out and watch Renault and VW gobble up the market.

 

 

 

Edited November 30, 2021 by bzcat

[rperez817]

2 hours ago, akirby said:

Of course they’re working on it, but it remains to be seen how quickly that can be done in all 50 states.  The point is you can’t get to 100% BEV without solving ALL of these problems for EVERYBODY.  All price points, all locations.  

 

Maybe a 21st century version of the Rural Electrification Act of 1936 is in order at the federal government level? BEV charging infrastructure should be much easier and quicker to implement in rural areas than the electrical distribution systems the 1936 act helped put in place. 

[bzcat]

30 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

Not really, pricing in the market has gone up and up with each generation. 

 

Looking at the Explorer-

2002 Limited base price was 32,545

 

Today its $45,430

 

Yeah its moved up in market also, but a cheap car today is around 20K

A cheap car 15 years ago was half that-I'm talking stripper models.

An "average" car like an Escape is in the mid to high 20K range. 

 

You are not making any sense. $32,545 in 2002 is $50,828 in 2022 according to CPO calculator at bls.gov. That Explorer is actually cheaper now than it was in 2002, but with more feature and safety and power.

 

Car prices have steadily decreased with each generation when adjusted for inflation, even without taking into account the features and improvements in tech/fuel efficiency/performance. That is a fact. 

 

 

Edited November 30, 2021 by bzcat

[rperez817]

11 minutes ago, bzcat said:

 

you are not making any sense. $32,545 in 2002 is $50,828 in 2022 according to CPO calculator at bls.gov. That Explorer is actually cheaper now than it was in 2002, but with more feature and safety and power.

 

Thanks bzcat sir, you posted just what I was thinking. Also, with BEV, the rapid pace of technological advancement compared to ICE powered cars should enable automakers to deliver even more value to consumers.

[rperez817]

On 11/28/2021 at 12:20 PM, FordBuyer said:

I wonder if more females will be willing to buy BEVs than males. I suspect so once prices start moderating. Maybe safer to charge up at home and work rather than gas up at some sketchy gas station in the dark. Also less maintenance and dealing with service people who see female customers as more vulnerable to deception. 

 

You are correct on all counts FordBuyer sir, the appeal of BEV to ladies goes back to the early days of the automotive industry. Henry Ford's wife Clara in fact shunned the Model T in favor of a 1914 Detroit Electric BEV. Henry Ford's Wife Wouldn't Drive Ford Model T, Kept Her Electric Car - CleanTechnica

[akirby]

1 hour ago, silvrsvt said:

 

Not really, pricing in the market has gone up and up with each generation. 

 

Looking at the Explorer-

2002 Limited base price was 32,545

 

Today its $45,430

 

Yeah its moved up in market also, but a cheap car today is around 20K

A cheap car 15 years ago was half that-I'm talking stripper models.

An "average" car like an Escape is in the mid to high 20K range. 

But people on a tight budget can buy a lot of entry level vehicles for $22k or less.  Corollas.  Mavericks.   Hyundai’s start at $19k.  If BEVs start at $30k what are those buyers supposed to do?  There are no cheap used BEVs - certainly not enough to meet that demand.  
 

Again, to go 100% BEV means filling all those market segments and price points.  Cheap vehicles and heavy duty pickups will be the last to go.

[akirby]

24 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

 

You are correct on all counts FordBuyer sir, the appeal of BEV to ladies goes back to the early days of the automotive industry. Henry Ford's wife Clara in fact shunned the Model T in favor of a 1914 Detroit Electric BEV. Henry Ford's Wife Wouldn't Drive Ford Model T, Kept Her Electric Car - CleanTechnica

See what those ladies say about having to wait on public charging, especially at night.

[akirby]

Listen guys, I’m not saying we can’t or shouldn’t go BEV.  I just can’t stand it when people pretend that everybody can go BEV today and ignore the dozens of hurdles that have yet to be overcome to do that.

[silvrsvt]

1 hour ago, bzcat said:

You are not making any sense. $32,545 in 2002 is $50,828 in 2022 according to CPO calculator at bls.gov. That Explorer is actually cheaper now than it was in 2002, but with more feature and safety and power.

 

Car prices have steadily decreased with each generation when adjusted for inflation, even without taking into account the features and improvements in tech/fuel efficiency/performance. That is a fact. 

 

But your buying power is less then what it was back then...it might be cheaper adjusted for inflation, but it was truly cheaper, you wouldn't be hearing people bitching about pricing of new vehicles or getting 6-7-8 year loans to "afford" them. 

[2005Explorer]

1 hour ago, akirby said:

But people on a tight budget can buy a lot of entry level vehicles for $22k or less.  Corollas.  Mavericks.   Hyundai’s start at $19k.  If BEVs start at $30k what are those buyers supposed to do?  There are no cheap used BEVs - certainly not enough to meet that demand.  
 

Again, to go 100% BEV means filling all those market segments and price points.  Cheap vehicles and heavy duty pickups will be the last to go.

Actually from what I have read BEV vehicles will actually be cheaper to produce compared to current ICE technology once they are built in mass quantities. I think automakers will find it easier to produce affordable smaller, less powerful BEVs and still make a profit on them vs affordable ICE vehicles. In fact, BEV might be the best thing that ever happened to people shopping at the lower end of the market.

[rmc523]

44 minutes ago, 2005Explorer said:

Actually from what I have read BEV vehicles will actually be cheaper to produce compared to current ICE technology once they are built in mass quantities. I think automakers will find it easier to produce affordable smaller, less powerful BEVs and still make a profit on them vs affordable ICE vehicles. In fact, BEV might be the best thing that ever happened to people shopping at the lower end of the market.

 

You're asking them to voluntarily sacrifice profits, though, and businesses don't usually do that lol.

[akirby]

1 hour ago, 2005Explorer said:

Actually from what I have read BEV vehicles will actually be cheaper to produce compared to current ICE technology once they are built in mass quantities. I think automakers will find it easier to produce affordable smaller, less powerful BEVs and still make a profit on them vs affordable ICE vehicles. In fact, BEV might be the best thing that ever happened to people shopping at the lower end of the market.

Eventually.  But not today or tomorrow or 3 years from now.  Battery prices have to come down a lot.  

[akirby]

1 hour ago, rmc523 said:

 

You're asking them to voluntarily sacrifice profits, though, and businesses don't usually do that lol.

Especially when it’s not necessary.  There is no reason Ford, GM and Toyota can’t continue certain ICE vehicles and hybrids while developing BEVs.

[silvrsvt]

7 hours ago, akirby said:

Especially when it’s not necessary.  There is no reason Ford, GM and Toyota can’t continue certain ICE vehicles and hybrids while developing BEVs.

 

But if ICE is banned in some countries-well in new car sales, it wouldn't be prudent for them to keep making them since they make no $$$ on second hand sales. 

[akirby]

1 hour ago, silvrsvt said:

 

But if ICE is banned in some countries-well in new car sales, it wouldn't be prudent for them to keep making them since they make no $$$ on second hand sales. 

My point is you can’t ban ICE sales without low end models or you’re effectively pricing low end buyers out of the market completely.  Of course the solution for some folks would be a govt subsidy to make them affordable.

 

I don’t see how you can ban used ICE vehicles for many many years, although I’m sure some smaller countries will try.  It will take a decade or more to build up any kind of BEV used market.

 

We should focus on getting BEVs in all segments and all price points and let the infrastructure and technology mature and the transition will happen naturally instead of trying to force it prematurely.  50% BEVs/30% HEVs/ICE could be done easily in 5 years and would accomplish 75% emissions reduction without requiring major changes in infrastructure.  It’s a far more logical solution than 100% BEVs.

[ANTAUS]

I keep thinking "What about people who live in condos/apartments...?", it's not like those places will offer the infrastructure for charging, and not like your going to run a plug down to the parking garage. Which is why for some, I do not see it as viable for them. At least, not till you have 5-10 minute charging stations that they could use to charge up.

[Anthony]

26 minutes ago, ANTAUS said:

I keep thinking "What about people who live in condos/apartments...?", it's not like those places will offer the infrastructure for charging, and not like your going to run a plug down to the parking garage. Which is why for some, I do not see it as viable for them. At least, not till you have 5-10 minute charging stations that they could use to charge up.

 

Just like any place that has to sell you to live there, apartment complexes will need to start offering charging stations or people will move to where it is more convenient for them.  Just like covered parking, green spaces, and granite counters.  Apartments have to constantly update with the times if they don't want their tenants moving elsewhere that offer the amenities they want.  The better amenities, the easier the sale and fewer vacancies.

 

Will it happen immediately?  No, but as soon as a couple of apartment complexes offer it in a town, the rest will need to follow suit.  Competition for the clients will demand it.

Edited November 30, 2021 by Anthony

[silvrsvt]

1 hour ago, akirby said:

My point is you can’t ban ICE sales without low end models or you’re effectively pricing low end buyers out of the market completely.  Of course the solution for some folks would be a govt subsidy to make them affordable.

 

I don’t see how you can ban used ICE vehicles for many many years, although I’m sure some smaller countries will try.  It will take a decade or more to build up any kind of BEV used market.

 

We should focus on getting BEVs in all segments and all price points and let the infrastructure and technology mature and the transition will happen naturally instead of trying to force it prematurely.  50% BEVs/30% HEVs/ICE could be done easily in 5 years and would accomplish 75% emissions reduction without requiring major changes in infrastructure.  It’s a far more logical solution than 100% BEVs.

 

I wasn't' talking about banning used ICE sales-I was talking about companies making ICE products-it makes no sense to keep investing or building them if new ICE car sales are banned. 

 

As for lower income people, I don't see that happening-owning a car is a "luxury" not a need....I know its not, but in the eyes of the government they can look at it that way. The secondary market will hopefully take care of that market, but as the price of new cars keep going up, the resale value of newer used cars will stay high also. 

[akirby]

39 minutes ago, Anthony said:

 

Just like any place that has to sell you to live there, apartment complexes will need to start offering charging stations or people will move to where it is more convenient for them.  Just like covered parking, green spaces, and granite counters.  Apartments have to constantly update with the times if they don't want their tenants moving elsewhere that offer the amenities they want.  The better amenities, the easier the sale and fewer vacancies.

 

Will it happen immediately?  No, but as soon as a couple of apartment complexes offer it in a town, the rest will need to follow suit.  Competition for the clients will demand it.

Do you understand the cost to do that?  Every space requires a charger and that requires a new feed from the electric company.  You might see some high end apartments and condos go that route but public charging is far far far more cost effective.  Which is why it needs to be faster and more widely available.

[silvrsvt]

37 minutes ago, Anthony said:

 

Just like any place that has to sell you to live there, apartment complexes will need to start offering charging stations or people will move to where it is more convenient for them.  Just like covered parking, green spaces, and granite counters.  Apartments have to constantly update with the times if they don't want their tenants moving elsewhere that offer the amenities they want.  The better amenities, the easier the sale and fewer vacancies.

 

Will it happen immediately?  No, but as soon as a couple of apartment complexes offer it in a town, the rest will need to follow suit.  Competition for the clients will demand it.

 

What about this-"normally" people living in apartments are lower income and therefore would have less demand for "expensive" products like BEVs. 

[akirby]

14 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

As for lower income people, I don't see that happening-owning a car is a "luxury" not a need....I know its not, but in the eyes of the government they can look at it that way. The secondary market will hopefully take care of that market, but as the price of new cars keep going up, the resale value of newer used cars will stay high also. 

There is no secondary market for BEVs and won’t be for at least a decade or more.  
 

How can you ignore the $20k-$25k market?  It’s there today with millions of vehicles sold per year and those people can’t afford anything more expensive.

[akirby]

11 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

What about this-"normally" people living in apartments are lower income and therefore would have less demand for "expensive" products like BEVs. 

 

We must be talking past each other.  The context here is 100% BEVs on new car sales.  Not the current market.  People in apartments anywhere other than dense urban areas need a vehicle.  It’s not a luxury.  It’s a necessity.  And it has to be cheap whether it’s new or used.
 

Again, the solution is fast, available public charging - just like gas stations today.  And either low priced BEV options or a large used BEV market.

[rperez817]

16 minutes ago, akirby said:

There is no secondary market for BEVs and won’t be for at least a decade or more.  

 

There's been a secondary market for BEV for as long as modern era BEV have been sold. I purchased a secondhand BEV myself.

 

Cars.com shows over 15,000 pre-owned BEV available for sale on its channel. Pricing ranges from $5,990 for a 10 year old Nissan Leaf up to about $220k for a lightly used 2021 Porsche Taycan Turbo S. Used vehicles for Sale Near Me | Cars.com