Sandy Munro’s dire warning

[silvrsvt]

12 minutes ago, akirby said:

 

We must be talking past each other.  The context here is 100% BEVs on new car sales.  Not the current market.  People in apartments anywhere other than dense urban areas need a vehicle.  It’s not a luxury.  It’s a necessity.  And it has to be cheap whether it’s new or used.
 

Again, the solution is fast, available public charging - just like gas stations today.  And either low priced BEV options or a large used BEV market.

 

We are saying the same thing....the secondary ICE car market will satisfy the low income market for the time being...that was the point I was trying to make-even at current vehicle pricing, people who could buy new are looking at used cars due to the increases in prices....but according to some people these same products are more affordable....

 

The current 20K low end of the market will most likely rise up to the $25-30K mark because I don't think manufactures are willingly going to let profit go out the door this time around, unlike they had to do with smaller cars that got good MPGs to offset CAFE. 

 

Even with tax incentives-at least the way I understand they work-you need to be making decent $$$ to even get them with tax changes that happened. Your not automatically going to get 7500-12K back on a tax return...all its doing is lowering your taxable income...and a family making 60-75K a year isn't going to be able to do that.

 

[akirby]

17 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

 

There's been a secondary market for BEV for as long as modern era BEV have been sold. I purchased a secondhand BEV myself.

 

Cars.com shows over 15,000 pre-owned BEV available for sale on its channel. Pricing ranges from $5,990 for a 10 year old Nissan Leaf up to about $220k for a lightly used 2021 Porsche Taycan Turbo S. Used vehicles for Sale Near Me | Cars.com

Limited range Leafs and bolts don’t count and the current low cost used car market has to be a few million per year, not a few thousand.

[rperez817]

20 minutes ago, akirby said:

Limited range Leafs and bolts don’t count and the current low cost used car market has to be a few million per year, not a few thousand.

 

Wrong.

[akirby]

10 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

 

Wrong.

You don’t understand why some people like V8 powered vehicles.  It’s about the feel and the sound not just speed and you’re not getting either of those with a BEV.   Same reason a lot of Mustang GT owners don’t want a Mach-e.

[rperez817]

14 minutes ago, akirby said:

You don’t understand why some people like V8 powered vehicles.  It’s about the feel and the sound not just speed and you’re not getting either of those with a BEV.   Same reason a lot of Mustang GT owners don’t want a Mach-e.

 

I was referring to your earlier posts mentioning no secondary market for BEV. There is definitely such a market right now. Of course it's not as large as the secondary market for gasoline powered cars and light trucks, but there's a wide range of pre-owned BEV available for sale to consumers. And used Nissan Leafs, Mitsubishi i-MiEV, etc. and others at the low end do count, transactions involving the buying and selling of those cars happen every day.

[2005Explorer]

14 hours ago, rmc523 said:

 

You're asking them to voluntarily sacrifice profits, though, and businesses don't usually do that lol.

I'm not asking them to do that. I am saying at some point affordable BEVs will be as cheap if not cheaper to produce then ICE vehicles at the lower end of the market. While affordable vehicles will never make as much profit per unit as a fully loaded Lincoln Navigator it's an important segment. Ford believes this too or they would not offer the Maverick, Ranger, Escape and Bronco Sport in their line-up.

[FordBuyer]

56 minutes ago, 2005Explorer said:

I'm not asking them to do that. I am saying at some point affordable BEVs will be as cheap if not cheaper to produce then ICE vehicles at the lower end of the market. While affordable vehicles will never make as much profit per unit as a fully loaded Lincoln Navigator it's an important segment. Ford believes this too or they would not offer the Maverick, Ranger, Escape and Bronco Sport in their line-up.

 

We keep hearing battery costs will come down, but are they really? I know lithium prices are going up, not down. Scaling up should moderate prices, but as of now there doesn't seem to be any evidence of costs coming down. Even plugins are at least $5,000 more than conventional. Meanwhile, Tesla prices are going up almost every week. 

[jpd80]

38 minutes ago, FordBuyer said:

 

We keep hearing battery costs will come down, but are they really? I know lithium prices are going up, not down. Scaling up should moderate prices, but as of now there doesn't seem to be any evidence of costs coming down. Even plugins are at least $5,000 more than conventional. Meanwhile, Tesla prices are going up almost every week. 

And people still seem to be paying those higher prices. I wonder if those bargain price ICE car segments are all set to die or increase pricing through electrification in order to survive. I’m not so sure that pricing will go back to pre pandemic levels now that manufacturers see how tighter inventories keep pricing higher. The cat may be out of the bag now…..

 

I know that wasn’t exactly your point above but if ICEs that make little or no profit increase in price and incentives go away, it makes the gap to BEVs a lot less.

Edited November 30, 2021 by jpd80

[Anthony]

4 hours ago, akirby said:

Do you understand the cost to do that?  Every space requires a charger and that requires a new feed from the electric company.  You might see some high end apartments and condos go that route but public charging is far far far more cost effective.  Which is why it needs to be faster and more widely available.

 

I understand it needs to be done if the country and manufacturers are serious about going to EVs.  Whether it is via subsidies or credits, it will eventually have to be done.   And it really doesn't cost that much to install if you go with an existing partner... additionally, there are already grants and tax credits to cover the vast majority of construction costs, not to mention what is also coming with the infrastructure bill.

 

Quote

Most commercial enterprises look to install level two charging stations, which run on 240-volt power and provide a compromise between power and cost. A level two electric vehicle charging station costs around $7,200 for a dual-port station—it can charge two cars simultaneously in eight to 10 hours. (add $12k+ if infrastructure needs to be upgraded, but that's really only if you are going with 480V charging.)

 

Besides, it is also a revenue generator for whatever business installs it on their property.  Pretty much a win/win for all involved.

Edited November 30, 2021 by Anthony

[akirby]

23 minutes ago, Anthony said:

 

I understand it needs to be done if the country and manufacturers are serious about going to EVs.  Whether it is via subsidies or credits, it will eventually have to be done.   And it really doesn't cost that much to install if you go with an existing partner... additionally, there are already grants and tax credits to cover the vast majority of construction costs, not to mention what is also coming with the infrastructure bill.

 

 

Besides, it is also a revenue generator for whatever business installs it on their property.  Pretty much a win/win for all involved.

Why doesn’t every apartment complex have a gas station today?    And none of those options are free just because the money comes from government or utility companies - one way or another we pay for it.

 

The logical solution isn’t hundreds of thousands of new dedicated chargers for apartment dwellers, it’s faster and more available public chargers.  They’re coming, it will just take another generation of batteries and chargers.  No need to spend trillions to force it to happen sooner. 

[Chrisgb]

On 11/28/2021 at 12:10 PM, Stray Kat said:

Most people I know could care less what is under the hood of their car so I don’t think the vast majority probably wouldn’t be put off without the visceral sounds of a combustion engine. 
 

I think convenience will be way more attractive once a few brave souls in the neighborhood try an EV. I know convenience is a top priority for me and I’m a shade tree gear head with grease under my fingernails. 
 

Matter of fact the reduction of dirt and grease is another increasingly attractive aspect of EV’s for me.  

We're both retired and for us, 90%+ of our driving is less than100 miles in a day, and usually less than 100 miles in a week. The other ~10% are road trips of 3-800 miles/day and multiple days. A series hybrid like the Nissan Note is, or the Chevy Volt was, would be something I could get interested in; plug it in most nights, fill up the onboard generator while on road trips. It would just need to be C- or D-size and affordable.

@akirby, 

I think that for the vast majority of apartment/condo dwellers, who also drive less than 100mi/day round trip, could do with a simple, relatively cheap 120v outlet matrix installed in the parking lot or garage area. It would be sufficient to top up 8-12hrs when home for the next day. The outlets could be tied to the dwelling or a credit card to operate. The terminals could end in a simple 20A outlet box; no need for 220-480V service and kiosks..

Some folks around here run 100' extension cords out the window to the parking lot for their frost plug heaters now. 

 

And of course, the hooligans that are "rollin' coal" today, will tune their Lightings and Hummers for "shootin' sparks" tomorrow ?

Edited November 30, 2021 by Chrisgb
Added content

[Anthony]

3 hours ago, akirby said:

Why doesn’t every apartment complex have a gas station today?    And none of those options are free just because the money comes from government or utility companies - one way or another we pay for it.

 

The logical solution isn’t hundreds of thousands of new dedicated chargers for apartment dwellers, it’s faster and more available public chargers.  They’re coming, it will just take another generation of batteries and chargers.  No need to spend trillions to force it to happen sooner. 

 

Yes, public chargers are a priority. But don't think about what we have now (with the infrastructure and existing industry we have now).  EVs are legitimately going to create entire industries dedicated to electric car charging and infrastructure. The costs will quickly come down quickly while the consumer expectations of the availability of charging will rise.

 

You will see more and more businesses and yes, apartments begin offering chargers to 1) make money 2) entice people to do business with them.  As EVs become more prevalent, renters won't see chargers as a nicety or something only for high-end apartments... but instead, demand and require it.  Legitimate apartment complexes with parking spaces? You'll absolutely see chargers.

 

It won't stop there, I can also see urban centers eventually having chargers as common as parking meters or even combined.  That's just how the world and infrastructure will evolve around need and convenience.  If there's one thing humans excel at is designing more and more ways to do less by making things ridiculously convenient. 

 

Who would have thought 15 years ago we'd be talking to $29 speakers to do everything from telling us the weather to turning down the lights and changing the temperature in our homes because of convenience?

Who would have thought 15 years ago that in-home streaming would destroy the DVD and rental industry because we want the convenience of not leaving our home to watch a movie? 

Who would have thought 15 years ago that we would destroy the mom and pop industry because we want the convenience of ordering stuff from our phones while sitting in our recliner and having it delivered to our doorstep the next day?

I could go on...

 

People are lazy.  They won't go somewhere to charge something (unless we get it down to gas station time levels).  But what will come first?  The super-fast charging?  Or the demand for convenience? I'll always put my money on people being inherently lazy.

Edited November 30, 2021 by Anthony

[ANTAUS]

I do agree, people are lazy... That's why Amazon is doing so well.  The stores of tomorrow...Small, u walk in, touch the item, test it out, if you order it you wont take it home that day but it'll arrive in a day or so.  Keeps stores from using valuable square footage to store stock. Malls are out, redefine themselves and redevelop with multi-family to stay alive.  And not sure about others, but my frustration of malls is walking in and being hounded by the kiosks trying to sell me a massage or phone cover, the people spraying perfume.

[2005Explorer]

1 hour ago, ANTAUS said:

I do agree, people are lazy... That's why Amazon is doing so well.  The stores of tomorrow...Small, u walk in, touch the item, test it out, if you order it you wont take it home that day but it'll arrive in a day or so.  Keeps stores from using valuable square footage to store stock. Malls are out, redefine themselves and redevelop with multi-family to stay alive.  And not sure about others, but my frustration of malls is walking in and being hounded by the kiosks trying to sell me a massage or phone cover, the people spraying perfume.

The good old "catalog showroom" concept making a comeback.

[silvrsvt]

1 hour ago, 2005Explorer said:

The good old "catalog showroom" concept making a comeback.

 

Oh man I remember them when I was kid...think one was called Best....can't remember the other one. 

[2005Explorer]

46 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

Oh man I remember them when I was kid...think one was called Best....can't remember the other one. 

The two big ones were Best Products “Best” and Service Merchandise. We shopped at Best quite a bit when I was young. You would take cards from the product on display and go to the back order area. If it was something they had in the on-site warehouse it would come out on a small conveyor with a tag on it. If not it would be ordered and shipped to your house. So yes pretty much the same concept just that you view it now and use your smartphone to order.

[LookingToBuyAFord]

On 11/27/2021 at 10:42 AM, Flying68 said:

My thoughts. 

1. Munro is approaching crazy old man territory when it comes to Tesla. I didn't watch this video but I did watch one where he went off on NHSTA for dating to look into the safety (or lack there of) of autopilot and FSD. He is blinded by the gee whizz factor and seems to have lost his sound engineering judgement and ethics which would dictate that you don't release beta software into the public which when it fails can cause death.

2. Tesla's Z score is entirely driven by their insane market capitalization driven entirely by zealots without regard to actual fundamentals. 

 

I am glad that everyone has an open mind.

[akirby]

All we’re really arguing about is how quickly BEVs can replace ICE.   Some think it can be done almost immediately- ignoring all the impediments that have been pointed out already.  Others are more realistic and think it will happen more slowly.  Not IF but WHEN.

[2005Explorer]

1 hour ago, akirby said:

All we’re really arguing about is how quickly BEVs can replace ICE.   Some think it can be done almost immediately- ignoring all the impediments that have been pointed out already.  Others are more realistic and think it will happen more slowly.  Not IF but WHEN.

I’m giving it 10 years before I personally make the jump from ICE to BEV. Some places might be ready today. In South Dakota? We’re not close and I’d say the same holds true for many other states. Even then something like a plug-in hybrid might be more attractive to people who live in very rural areas.

[Stray Kat]

Seventy bucks a week in my V6 F150 XL to get to and from work and a few errands every week. That’s almost two bucks an hour before anything else. 
 

Yes I’d be very interested in even a tiny EV that costs a third of that to operate as a transportation appliance. 
 

I have two cool vintage cars when I want to pleasure cruise. 

[akirby]

7 hours ago, 2005Explorer said:

I’m giving it 10 years before I personally make the jump from ICE to BEV. Some places might be ready today. In South Dakota? We’re not close and I’d say the same holds true for many other states. Even then something like a plug-in hybrid might be more attractive to people who live in very rural areas.

A lot of people are ignoring the low income and rural market and just assume if they can buy a $40k+ BEV and charge it at home or nearby that everyone can do it.

[akirby]

25 minutes ago, Stray Kat said:

Yes I’d be very interested in even a tiny EV that costs a third of that to operate as a transportation appliance. 

Can you charge at home?  If so that’s the perfect use case.  But would you be willing to take it on a long trip especially in rural areas?

[Chrisgb]

14 hours ago, 2005Explorer said:

The good old "catalog showroom" concept making a comeback.

Ahh, La Belles, we hardly knew ye.

[rperez817]

11 hours ago, LookingToBuyAFord said:

I am glad that everyone has an open mind.

 

?

Not everyone can understand or appreciate Sandy Munro's genius, though. 

[akirby]

13 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

 

?

Not everyone can understand or appreciate Sandy Munro's genius, though. 

He’s only a genius when he agrees with you.  Your confirmation bias is unparalleled.