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Farley with Auto News: EV Plans and More


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15 minutes ago, Harley Lover said:

 

What the VW CEO witnessed when he toured Tesla was convincing enough for him.

 

Yes sir Harley Lover sir, Herbert Diess was so convinced that he later invited Elon Musk to speak to 200 VW executives on an internal VW conference call. VW CEO Herbert Diess invites Elon Musk to talk on how Tesla innovates quickly - Electrek

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52 minutes ago, akirby said:


Cost = time AND MATERIALS

And fewer people

things like easier assembly of off line components, more sub assembly work at stamping plants, fast casting process replacing up to 70 individual parts……

Edited by jpd80
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29 minutes ago, Harley Lover said:

 

Except that's not what Farley said.


To be fair he wasn’t clear either way.  He implied it was labor but I think the majority of that labor savings is in the engine and transmission vs motors and batteries.  I don’t see how it takes 30% less labor to build an EV in a final assembly plant.  

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Less moving parts means fewer labor hours required to screw everything together. 

 

I'm no manufacturing expert but EV drivetrain part counts is surely significantly lower than ICE drivetrain. How much of the final assembly process is bolting in engine, air intake, radiator, transmission, exhaust, fuel tank, emission control equipment and making sure those things all work properly? EV motor and battery are bolted to the chassis so it happens at an earlier part of the assembly process before a lot of other ICE assembly steps. I can see the labor hours could be significantly reduced. Maybe not as dramatic as 10 hours from start to finish like that article suggests (I think jpd is right, 10 hours probably doesn't include subassembly or staging time) but probably less than what it takes to properly screw together an ICE unibody vehicle. 

Edited by bzcat
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15 minutes ago, bzcat said:

Less moving parts means fewer labor hours required to screw everything together. 

 

I'm no manufacturing expert but EV drivetrain part counts is surely significantly lower than ICE drivetrain. How much of the final assembly process is bolting in engine, air intake, radiator, transmission, exhaust, fuel tank, emission control equipment and making sure those things all work properly? EV motor and battery are bolted to the chassis so it happens at an earlier part of the assembly process before a lot of other ICE assembly steps. I can see the labor hours could be significantly reduced. Maybe not as dramatic as 10 hours from start to finish like that article suggests (I think jpd is right, 10 hours probably doesn't include subassembly or staging time) but probably less than what it takes to properly screw together an ICE unibody vehicle. 

 

From my experience visiting an assembly plant, they only put together sub assemblies and its not tested till its at the end of the production line. Normally installing the engine/transmission is one of the last things to happen during the assembly process. 

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1 hour ago, silvrsvt said:

 

From my experience visiting an assembly plant, they only put together sub assemblies and its not tested till its at the end of the production line. Normally installing the engine/transmission is one of the last things to happen during the assembly process. 


Eh, depends on the process. Using the Focus as an example (and it's out of production so I think I'm in the clear and not giving away anything) the body and chassis marriage was about halfway through the process. It was split pretty evenly and the entire interior of the car was assembled (including the doors) before it got to the chassis line. I know it's a little different for Ranger, Bronco and Mustang but I'm not going to go into more detail. 

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2 hours ago, fuzzymoomoo said:


Eh, depends on the process. Using the Focus as an example (and it's out of production so I think I'm in the clear and not giving away anything) the body and chassis marriage was about halfway through the process. It was split pretty evenly and the entire interior of the car was assembled (including the doors) before it got to the chassis line. I know it's a little different for Ranger, Bronco and Mustang but I'm not going to go into more detail. 

 

LOL I was using what I saw what was happening with the Escort and original Ranger ;)

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4 hours ago, bzcat said:

Less moving parts means fewer labor hours required to screw everything together. 

 

I'm no manufacturing expert but EV drivetrain part counts is surely significantly lower than ICE drivetrain. How much of the final assembly process is bolting in engine, air intake, radiator, transmission, exhaust, fuel tank, emission control equipment and making sure those things all work properly? EV motor and battery are bolted to the chassis so it happens at an earlier part of the assembly process before a lot of other ICE assembly steps. I can see the labor hours could be significantly reduced. Maybe not as dramatic as 10 hours from start to finish like that article suggests (I think jpd is right, 10 hours probably doesn't include subassembly or staging time) but probably less than what it takes to properly screw together an ICE unibody vehicle. 


As I stated the biggest difference is in the engine and transmission assembly but that’s not in the final assembly plant.

 

You still have to build and paint the body.  You have to assemble and install the interior.  You have to install the suspension, steering, brakes and wheels to the chassis.  You have to install the wiring and electronics.  You have to install the batteries and motors which take just as long as bolting in the engine and tranny.   The battery pack has its own cooling system so that offsets the lack of engine cooling.   The batteries offset the lack of a fuel tank.
 

You do save the exhaust system installation.  And maybe more can be done as subassemblies (chassis with batteries and cooling e.g.).

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6 hours ago, akirby said:


As I stated the biggest difference is in the engine and transmission assembly but that’s not in the final assembly plant.

 

You still have to build and paint the body.  You have to assemble and install the interior.  You have to install the suspension, steering, brakes and wheels to the chassis.  You have to install the wiring and electronics.  You have to install the batteries and motors which take just as long as bolting in the engine and tranny.   The battery pack has its own cooling system so that offsets the lack of engine cooling.   The batteries offset the lack of a fuel tank.
 

You do save the exhaust system installation.  And maybe more can be done as subassemblies (chassis with batteries and cooling e.g.).

The reductions in labor costs come  in the form of automation of sub assemblies

, more of the BEV components are made/assembled by robots. 

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6 hours ago, jpd80 said:

The reductions in labor costs come  in the form of automation of sub assemblies

, more of the BEV components are made/assembled by robots. 


Which means motors and batteries which I already mentioned being easier than engines and transmissions.  But outside the motors and batteries which components are easier to build/assemble?  To me the rest of the vehicle looks identical and uses the same components as their body on frame ICE counterparts.  What am I missing?

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1 hour ago, akirby said:


Which means motors and batteries which I already mentioned being easier than engines and transmissions.  But outside the motors and batteries which components are easier to build/assemble?  To me the rest of the vehicle looks identical and uses the same components as their body on frame ICE counterparts.  What am I missing?

 

 

Only thing I can come up with is that maybe its possible to build a "universal" skateboard design for say a CD product that can be made into a CUV or Sedan by just changing out the top hat (BOF) and suspension units.

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3 hours ago, akirby said:


Which means motors and batteries which I already mentioned being easier than engines and transmissions.  But outside the motors and batteries which components are easier to build/assemble?  To me the rest of the vehicle looks identical and uses the same components as their body on frame ICE counterparts.  What am I missing?

 

I'm stuck where you are - I know what the CEO's have stated, but it's difficult to reconcile with what is being detailed here. There must be some substance to what they've stated, as they both have made multi billion dollar decisions based on their beliefs.

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4 hours ago, akirby said:


Which means motors and batteries which I already mentioned being easier than engines and transmissions.  But outside the motors and batteries which components are easier to build/assemble?  To me the rest of the vehicle looks identical and uses the same components as their body on frame ICE counterparts.  What am I missing?

Faith.

If Ford said it then it must be true. Never go against the holy canons of Ford lest you be singled out as a non-believer :)

 

I was watching an F150 plant tour on YouTube, there’s a checking station where robots do 120 body checks in 40 seconds, that’s one example of how automation is replacing work in production, Ford has this thing now about “no touch” or no humans touching parts at assembly points. I know that’s not possible in all situations but it shows a desire to reduce workers.

Edited by jpd80
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Let's also not get too carried away with this Tesla 10 hour thing. Remember, Tesla has atrocious build quality and they basically had to abandon the assembly line and build cars in a tent with extra humans and hand tools just to get Model 3 out the door.

 

Ford and VW knows manufacturing and I'm sure Farley has a good grasp on how long it takes to build an EV. If Farley says 30% saving (in labor or labor + materials) then I'm inclined to believe him. Most industry experts and a few car companies have already been on record saying they expect material cost parity between EV and ICE in the next 12-18 months as more battery plants come on line. And after that EV will be cheaper to build than ICE because a combination of fewer parts and less time to build.

 

The challenge for traditional car companies are in the upfront investments - new or retool plants to build EV and acquiring new engineering resources relevant to EV (need more electrical and software engineers). The cost challenge is not in material or labor. That has been clear for a while now - EV will have higher profit margin than ICE once you get past the initial sunk cost hurdle. 

 

 

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4 hours ago, jpd80 said:

I know that’s not possible in all situations but it shows a desire to reduce workers.


I get the impression it's less about reducing workers and more decreasing the likelihood of damaged or broken parts. Reduces costs from parts and not paying overtime to repair vehicles post assembly. 

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2 hours ago, bzcat said:

Let's also not get too carried away with this Tesla 10 hour thing. Remember, Tesla has atrocious build quality and they basically had to abandon the assembly line and build cars in a tent with extra humans and hand tools just to get Model 3 out the door.

 

Ford and VW knows manufacturing and I'm sure Farley has a good grasp on how long it takes to build an EV. If Farley says 30% saving (in labor or labor + materials) then I'm inclined to believe him. Most industry experts and a few car companies have already been on record saying they expect material cost parity between EV and ICE in the next 12-18 months as more battery plants come on line. And after that EV will be cheaper to build than ICE because a combination of fewer parts and less time to build.

 

The challenge for traditional car companies are in the upfront investments - new or retool plants to build EV and acquiring new engineering resources relevant to EV (need more electrical and software engineers). The cost challenge is not in material or labor. That has been clear for a while now - EV will have higher profit margin than ICE once you get past the initial sunk cost hurdle. 

 

 


the caveat to cost parity is the materials needed to make batteries - if those increase, all bets are off.

 

I know operations are expanding globally but it’s only a matter of time before environmentalists wake up and realize the strip mining that goes into making the unicorn green batteries.

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1 hour ago, rmc523 said:

I know operations are expanding globally but it’s only a matter of time before environmentalists wake up and realize the strip mining that goes into making the unicorn green batteries.

 

Damned if you do, damned you don't. Those same environmentalists will be hard pressed to give up their cell phones or laptops that use batteries.

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3 hours ago, rmc523 said:


the caveat to cost parity is the materials needed to make batteries - if those increase, all bets are off.

 

I know operations are expanding globally but it’s only a matter of time before environmentalists wake up and realize the strip mining that goes into making the unicorn green batteries.

The main one is all the lithium coming from Western Australia that goes mostly to China,

would love to see that change…..

1501477505543.jpg

 

 

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5 hours ago, rmc523 said:


the caveat to cost parity is the materials needed to make batteries - if those increase, all bets are off.

 

 

 

I see post like this all over the internet without really any context. It's the same hand waving about how we will run out of electricity if all the cars are converted to plug in which I've written so many posts here to debunk. It's basically just another red herring. 

 

Steel and aluminum prices doubled the last couple of years and then gained another 50% or so when Trump imposed tariff on the stuff. Did the average new car price go up 300%? Rubber prices have gone insane the last 7 or 8 years. Did the car industry grind to a halt because no one can afford any more gaskets and tires? Lithium prices fluctuate but it is a raw commodity. The value chain that goes into making batteries and then a vehicle is much more complicated and layered. Lithium prices may increase (or not) but that doesn't mean battery price will spike (or crash for that matter).

 

The environmental concern is real though. But not any more so than mining for iron ore (also typically stripped mined) or burning the rain forest to plant rubber trees. The point is that it is a tradeoff we will need to make to decarbonize the economy and avoid total catastrophe in climate change. 

 

Edited by bzcat
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On 12/23/2021 at 3:27 PM, bzcat said:

 

I see post like this all over the internet without really any context. It's the same hand waving about how we will run out of electricity if all the cars are converted to plug in which I've written so many posts here to debunk. It's basically just another red herring. 
 

Correct, the most inefficient cycle with ICE is low speed  running, use hybrid electrification to replace most of that and the equation changes. Many costs that were assumed to be fixed become variable if looked at from a different perspective.

 

 

 

Quote

 

Steel and aluminum prices doubled the last couple of years and then gained another 50% or so when Trump imposed tariff on the stuff. Did the average new car price go up 300%? Rubber prices have gone insane the last 7 or 8 years. Did the car industry grind to a halt because no one can afford any more gaskets and tires? Lithium prices fluctuate but it is a raw commodity. The value chain that goes into making batteries and then a vehicle is much more complicated and layered. Lithium prices may increase (or not) but that doesn't mean battery price will spike (or crash for that matter).

 

The environmental concern is real though. But not any more so than mining for iron ore (also typically stripped mined) or burning the rain forest to plant rubber trees. The point is that it is a tradeoff we will need to make to decarbonize the economy and avoid total catastrophe in climate change. 

 

Tighter production supply has increased prices to consumers by virtually eliminating any need for incentives, something that we’re built into the MSRP. All manufacturers are now seeing the benefit of less aggressive sales approach……

 

Almost any type of mining will be tolerated provided that the necessary environmental controls are laced out and committed to by all parties. Australia should be convinced that selling lithium to China is not in its long term interest…..

Edited by jpd80
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On 12/22/2021 at 1:51 PM, jpd80 said:

Faith.

If Ford said it then it must be true. Never go against the holy canons of Ford lest you be singled out as a non-believer :)

 

I was watching an F150 plant tour on YouTube, there’s a checking station where robots do 120 body checks in 40 seconds, that’s one example of how automation is replacing work in production, Ford has this thing now about “no touch” or no humans touching parts at assembly points. I know that’s not possible in all situations but it shows a desire to reduce workers.

 

For decades, auto companies have been replacing workers with machines. That only continues no matter what is built. Anytime Ford retools a plant, you can bet there will be more robots. Witness all the new robots Ford showed off when CAP retooled for 2020 Explorer. Assembly plants used to be small cities, now they are small towns. 

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