Ford delays Explorer, Aviator EVs

[jpd80]

6 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

Don't get your hopes up jpd80 sir. If you stretch yourself across both sides of the street, you're twice as likely to get run over. In Ford's case, this is the curse that Jim Hackett spoke about almost 2 years ago, about the company continuing to straddle the old and new worlds of the automotive industry that are in conflict with each other.

For at least the next three years, ICE sales and profits are going to carry paying down the $30 billion being invested because there’s no way that  Lightning/Mach E/E Transit sales and income will scratch the surface of that debt, so yeah, ICE  profits is the one big advantage Ford has over Tesla funding new infrastructure and vehicle roll outs. Ford needs ICE income to get everything done.

Edited December 12, 2021 by jpd80

[ausrutherford]

On 12/11/2021 at 1:36 PM, jpd80 said:

Correct, I just saw Farley’s tweet, that is just sensational if Ford can get those sales.

Who knows,

 

if they start building a few more in RHD, they might get a big surprise…….. 

Silent sales of Tesla in Australia alone are above 1,000/mth.

 

 

I think they should switch over one of the lines at Valencia to built it as well. 

[jpd80]

1 hour ago, ausrutherford said:

 

I think they should switch over one of the lines at Valencia to built it as well. 

I don’t think Valencia is separate production lines as much as being a proper flex plant that can build up to six different vehicles

[rmc523]

7 hours ago, Footballfan said:

 

Perhaps I did not make myself clear regarding drivability.  It seems like Stellantis git it right with this Jeep concept that uses traditional axles and transfer cases as well as a manual 6-speed transmission. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.engadget.com/amp/jeeps-all-electric-wrangler-concept-has-a-six-speed-manual-transmission-122031458.html

 

 

 

Guess I just don't understand the point of that.

[fuzzymoomoo]

6 hours ago, rmc523 said:

 

Guess I just don't understand the point of that.

dont feel bad, I don't either. 

[jpd80]

36 minutes ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

dont feel bad, I don't either. 

Electrification at its most basic, just replacing the ICE with an electric motor and battery……….

 

It might be worth trying that with T6 Bronco and Ranger maybe as cheap, rugged lower cost parallel project for ROW markets.

Edited December 13, 2021 by jpd80

[justins]

On 12/11/2021 at 12:55 PM, 02MustangGT said:

Wouldn’t BEV Av/Ex replace some volume of current ICE Av/Ex production?   IMO, EV’s in 2024 doesn’t necessarily mean growth in production volume for the nameplate, but rather a replacement for current ICE volume. 

This. If they're pushing production out, I'd also be thinking it's a bigger push to phase out ICE Av/Ex sooner. Again, production capacity will determine that. But I can see a world where Av / Ex production is 50 / 50 ICE / EV of they can get production ramped up. 

 

 

[silvrsvt]

17 hours ago, Trader 10 said:

It’s Ford’s only option once they determined they had to go back to the drawing board with the EV Explorer/Aviator. 

 

Pushing back something 18 months or so isn't a full redesign-The real issue is the lack of batteries and this isn't a Mach E issue-its the demand for the Lightning that is causing this. It makes zero sense to add another two products to a lineup that is already limited by battery supply. Ford is scrambling to keep up with the demand for the Lightning and delaying the BEV Explorer makes sense in that context. 

 

Till BOC comes online, its going to be "hard" for Ford to source more batteries for its products. 

 

 

[Harley Lover]

1 hour ago, silvrsvt said:

Till BOC comes online, its going to be "hard" for Ford to source more batteries for its products. 

 

The battery plant at BOC will supply that plant, not others. That's the whole point of having it onsite with the production plant.

 The open question is which plants will be supplied by the 2 new battery plants to be built in Kentucky. The other question is if Ford have access to 100% of the output of the plant being completed in Georgia.

[bzcat]

On 12/10/2021 at 4:47 PM, akirby said:

What is “high”?  400k?  1M?  That’s still only 6% of total sales.

 

Stop acting like we’re against EVs just because we see a slightly more gradual transition than you do.  

 

Be careful, someone may call you a ICE zealot ?

 

My post was very self-evident. EV sales is constrained by lack of supply, not lack of demand. You may want to resurface from your alternate reality and take a look around you. EV adopting is not something the regulator forced upon you... you are still free to buy ICE as long as you want. But you seem to always dismiss data that shows people want or prefer EVs.

 

Look, this is real world. You want to talk about why Ford and other OEMs are so bullish now on EV?  Ford is on pace to sell about 700k F-series in 2021, of which about 600k is F-150. In little over 3 months, Ford took in 200k reservation for F-150 Lightning. Depending on if you think the 200k is incremental addition to the market or full replacement for ICE, it implies demand for F-150 EV truck is 25 ~ 33% of the market roughly speaking, if Ford can actually build that many. Easy to dismiss that demand when there is no sales right? 

 

If Ford was able to build 200k Lightning this year, they likely would have sold nearly that many. This is why Ford thinks it can build 200k Mach E in Mexico (doesn't include the 100k planned in China) by end of 2022... demand is strong, everywhere Mach E is sold. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 13, 2021 by bzcat

[bzcat]

7 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

 

Pushing back something 18 months or so isn't a full redesign-The real issue is the lack of batteries and this isn't a Mach E issue-its the demand for the Lightning that is causing this. It makes zero sense to add another two products to a lineup that is already limited by battery supply. Ford is scrambling to keep up with the demand for the Lightning and delaying the BEV Explorer makes sense in that context. 

 

Till BOC comes online, its going to be "hard" for Ford to source more batteries for its products. 

 

 

 

Yes, I think this is correct take.

 

I assume Explorer will be using SK battery not LG Chem which is in the Mach E. So the battery constrain would be because Ford needs those SK batteries from the plant opening in Georgia in 2022 to go to F-150 Lightning instead of Explorer. The BOC SK battery plants in TN and KY will open by 2024 in time for Explorer.

 

Ford's battery suppliers

Samsung: PHEV and hybrids

LG Chem: Mach E, Transit EV

BYD: Mach E China

SK: Lightning, Explorer (speculative but makes sense)

Edited December 13, 2021 by bzcat

[bzcat]

19 hours ago, jpd80 said:

I don’t think Valencia is separate production lines as much as being a proper flex plant that can build up to six different vehicles

 

Ford didn't select Valencia as an EV site probably because it will be the last holdout for ICE in Europe - sort of like Hermosilo for the Americas.

 

Cologne will go first with MEB Puma/Fiesta. Then I think Saarlouis will follow with next gen Focus and Kuga which will be EV only, while Valencia continues with C2 hybrids and PHEV.

Edited December 13, 2021 by bzcat

[akirby]

53 minutes ago, bzcat said:

 

Be careful, someone may call you a ICE zealot ?

 

My post was very self-evident. EV sales is constrained by lack of supply, not lack of demand. You may want to resurface from your alternate reality and take a look around you. EV adopting is not something the regulator forced upon you... you are still free to buy ICE as long as you want. But you seem to always dismiss data that shows people want or prefer EVs.

 

Look, this is real world. You want to talk about why Ford and other OEMs are so bullish now on EV?  Ford is on pace to sell about 700k F-series in 2021, of which about 600k is F-150. In little over 3 months, Ford took in 200k reservation for F-150 Lightning. Depending on if you think the 200k is incremental addition to the market or full replacement for ICE, it implies demand for F-150 EV truck is 25 ~ 33% of the market roughly speaking, if Ford can actually build that many. Easy to dismiss that demand when there is no sales right? 

 

If Ford was able to build 200k Lightning this year, they likely would have sold nearly that many. This is why Ford thinks it can build 200k Mach E in Mexico (doesn't include the 100k planned in China) by end of 2022... demand is strong, everywhere Mach E is sold. 

 

I thought I’ve been very clear about EVs being the future - I just don’t think the current demand is as high as you think it is and I think the transition will take longer.

 

Here is where I think demand is currently and for the next couple of years.

 

1.. people who are willing to go 100% BEV and plan their driving around charger availability even on long trips.  I think this is a relatively low number today.

 

2.  People who use it as a second vehicle and can charge at home.  They still have an ICE vehicle for longer trips.  I think this is the bulk of current demand.even for Tesla owners

 

3. fleets who do local driving and have dedicated chargers

I think we can get to 3M+ with the right products.  That’s still only 6% of the market.  Maybe 10% at the most.

 

People who only have one vehicle and people who live in apartments, condos and older homes that can’t easily charge at home aren’t going EV until the public charging infrastructure and charging times improve dramatically.

 

People who can’t afford a $40k+ new vehicle won’t be buying until prices come way down.

 

So I agree there is a lot of demand but it plateaus at 5%-10% max until we get to the next generation of EVs that are cheaper and are easier to recharge.   I think the next Gen could get us to 50%-60% with the right products but that’s probably 10 years away.

 

How many of the 200k lightning reservations are current EV owners just trading vehicles?  Hard to say the actual overall demand until the vehicles hit the streets.

[Flying68]

So back in June or so Lincoln said a BEV was coming in 2022 (at least announced publicly). Media speculated that it would be Mach-E size and would be the Mark-E. Haven't seen anything since and makes me wonder if the BEV Aviator was what the were going to announce or do they have another product in the works that marries up with the June speculation. 

[jpd80]

7 hours ago, Flying68 said:

So back in June or so Lincoln said a BEV was coming in 2022 (at least announced publicly). Media speculated that it would be Mach-E size and would be the Mark-E. Haven't seen anything since and makes me wonder if the BEV Aviator was what the were going to announce or do they have another product in the works that marries up with the June speculation. 

You’re correct in your assumption, many people got signals confused that the mid sized BEV Nautilus would be built at Cuautitlan but later learned it would be BEV Aviator. Both are considered mid sized as opposed to full sized Navigator.

[Flying68]

6 hours ago, jpd80 said:

You’re correct in your assumption, many people got signals confused that the mid sized BEV Nautilus would be built at Cuautitlan but later learned it would be BEV Aviator. Both are considered mid sized as opposed to full sized Navigator.

Unfortunate that is. We are planning on replacing our MkC here in another year or two, but were looking Nautilus size. No need for 3 rows when we have an Expedition. Lincoln may lose sales simply by not having product available. Looks like we may have to go Mach-e or another brand.

[akirby]

20 minutes ago, Flying68 said:

Unfortunate that is. We are planning on replacing our MkC here in another year or two, but were looking Nautilus size. No need for 3 rows when we have an Expedition. Lincoln may lose sales simply by not having product available. Looks like we may have to go Mach-e or another brand.

Of course they’ll be losing sales.  But maybe not losing much profit.  I think it’s a matter of needing to cut something to design and build more EVs and edge/nautilus still being on CD4 with a bespoke engine (no other transverse 2.7LEBs as far as I know).

 

We’re I the same boat by the way.  Need to replace the 2016 mkx.  Wife thinks Corsair is too small and Aviator is too big.  Would prefer to have a hybrid.  So we’ll test drive all 3 next year and either compromise on size or powertrain.  I may be trading my F150 on a new Ranger so that would leave more room for Aviator.

[Chrisgb]

On 12/11/2021 at 5:19 PM, silvrsvt said:

sage, you'll be able to go one charge till you get home, unless your going on a 3+ hour road trip.

 

Charging stations will improve as more vehicles demand them. 

Exactly.

At the turn of the 20th century, gasoline was sold through blacksmith shops and other places where you bought kerosene for your lamps. You'd fill up your milk can, take it to the car and pour it in. The first drive-up pumping station was built in Altoona, PA in 1913, as more middle class were able to buy cars, and demand exceeded supply. This created a supply problem as refineries struggled to adapt to refining more gasoline and less kerosene as electrification was also ramping up. by 1920, the US was well underway to converting from horses to horseless, and was essentially complete by WWII.

 

Now we're at another chicken & egg catch 22; there's not enough charging stations nationally,  because there aren't enough electric vehicles in the national fleet to warrant more/because there aren't enough electric vehicles in the national fleet, there aren't enough charging stations...

[twintornados]

1 hour ago, Flying68 said:

Unfortunate that is. We are planning on replacing our MkC here in another year or two, but were looking Nautilus size. No need for 3 rows when we have an Expedition. Lincoln may lose sales simply by not having product available. Looks like we may have to go Mach-e or another brand.

 

You could always take the "stepping stone" approach to EV's and get a Corsair PHEV.

[akirby]

37 minutes ago, Chrisgb said:

Now we're at another chicken & egg catch 22; there's not enough charging stations nationally,  because there aren't enough electric vehicles in the national fleet to warrant more/because there aren't enough electric vehicles in the national fleet, there aren't enough charging stations...

Especially in rural areas.  They’ll be the last to get a good public charging infrastructure and tend to be lower income on average.  They won’t be buying a lot of $40k BEVs that have to be driven 60 miles round trip to charge twice a week.

[akirby]

26 minutes ago, twintornados said:

 

You could always take the "stepping stone" approach to EV's and get a Corsair PHEV.

We sat in a Corsair with the upgraded seats and honestly I didn’t think it was that much smaller than our MKX, but wife did.  I still want to drive all 3 just to be sure.   A Corsair GT would be perfect if it’s not too small.  I have a feeling we’ll end up with a Nautilus though.  At least it has the new interior and I can factory order it the way we want this time.

[twintornados]

15 minutes ago, akirby said:

We sat in a Corsair with the upgraded seats and honestly I didn’t think it was that much smaller than our MKX, but wife did.  I still want to drive all 3 just to be sure.   A Corsair GT would be perfect if it’s not too small.  I have a feeling we’ll end up with a Nautilus though.  At least it has the new interior and I can factory order it the way we want this time.

 

@Flying68 stated they were getting ready to trade in their MKC. I too traded a 2017 MKC for my 2021 Corsair...the difference is amazing. I think you will like the GT....I would, if I can find one...lol

[Flying68]

29 minutes ago, twintornados said:

 

You could always take the "stepping stone" approach to EV's and get a Corsair PHEV.

I would do that for the Expedition if they make it a PHEV.  We figure the MkC is averaging less than 10,000 miles per year and almost all of that is local driving with occasional trips of less than 180 miles one way.  So it would make sense to go BEV with its replacement.  The Expy is around 20k miles per year with lots of 1000+ mile road trips.  2024 is when our Lincoln premium care expires on the MkC, so we can wait to replace it.  By then though we may consider keeping it for our daughter to drive.

[Flying68]

12 minutes ago, twintornados said:

 

@Flying68 stated they were getting ready to trade in their MKC. I too traded a 2017 MKC for my 2021 Corsair...the difference is amazing. I think you will like the GT....I would, if I can find one...lol

I should add rear seat legroom is the biggest factor in wanting to replace the MkC.  With 4 of us, the kids are getting too big to fit in the back seat.  My 14yr old son is taller than the wife and gaining on me quickly.  The daughter is not even 12 yet and wears the same shoe size as the wife, so it won't be long until she passes her up.  We haven't sat in a Corsair.  We would like to test drive a Mach-e but there are none locally.  I think I found one about 80 miles away.

[twintornados]

21 minutes ago, Flying68 said:

I should add rear seat legroom is the biggest factor in wanting to replace the MkC.  With 4 of us, the kids are getting too big to fit in the back seat.  My 14yr old son is taller than the wife and gaining on me quickly.  The daughter is not even 12 yet and wears the same shoe size as the wife, so it won't be long until she passes her up.  We haven't sat in a Corsair.  We would like to test drive a Mach-e but there are none locally.  I think I found one about 80 miles away.

 

Rear seat room is where the Corsair has really shined...much more than the MKC it replaces...