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Ford EV demand forces delays | Automotive News (autonews.com)

 

Before they locked the article to Subscribers Only, it stated that the three plants that may get the EVs are Oakville, Flat Rock, or Ohio Truck.

 

Remember, these two were originally scheduled to be built at Flat Rock until some whiz kid at Glass House  cancelled it.  It was then scheduled to be built at Ohio Assembly, but that was butted out because of the demand for the F-Series Super Duties (I think the initial projection for the two were about 60k units a year- I am sure that has risen).  

 

I am hearing that Flat Rock is again being considered for some EV production and reconfiguration, but who knows.  

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4 hours ago, Footballfan said:

Ford EV demand forces delays | Automotive News (autonews.com)

 

Before they locked the article to Subscribers Only, it stated that the three plants that may get the EVs are Oakville, Flat Rock, or Ohio Truck.

 

Remember, these two were originally scheduled to be built at Flat Rock until some whiz kid at Glass House  cancelled it.  It was then scheduled to be built at Ohio Assembly, but that was butted out because of the demand for the F-Series Super Duties (I think the initial projection for the two were about 60k units a year- I am sure that has risen).  

 

I am hearing that Flat Rock is again being considered for some EV production and reconfiguration, but who knows.  

Demand for 1 EV forces delay in 2 others

Ford Explorer and Lincoln Aviator EV delays illustrate the speed with which automakers are altering production schedules to meet booming demand.

December 20, 2021 12:00 AM 8 hours ago

 

DETROIT — Going into 2021, Ford Motor Co. was treading carefully to ensure electric vehicle production didn't get too far ahead of demand.

Now, it's scrambling to figure out how to build enough EVs to keep up with a flood of orders for the Mustang Mach-E and nearly 200,000 reservations for the F-150 Lightning that isn't even on sale yet. The push to churn out more of both nameplates is delaying the next two EVs that Ford planned to follow the Lightning and displacing them from the Mexico factory that was to make them.

It's the latest example of the speed with which automakers are reshaping production schedules and the choices they have to make as the industry collectively pivots toward electrification.

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EV juggling

Plants where Ford is likely to consider putting production of the Explorer and Lincoln Aviator EVs

Oakville Assembly 
Oakville, Ontario
Current products: Ford Edge, Lincoln Nautilus
Annual capacity: 200,000 after conversion to EVs in 2024

Ohio Assembly
Avon Lake, Ohio
Current products: E-Series, Super Duty chassis cabs, F-650/750
Annual capacity: 60,000 

Flat Rock Assembly
Flat Rock, Mich.
Current products: Ford Mustang
Annual capacity: 260,000

Source: LMC Automotive

"Flexibility is becoming really important," Katelyn Drake, a senior analyst with LMC Automotive, told Automotive News. "This is a tremendous change for the industry, and it's sometimes hard to predict exactly how things will go."

Ford's decision to dedicate its entire plant in Cuautitlan, Mexico, to the hot-selling Mach-E leaves two key future products — electric variants of the Explorer and Lincoln Aviator — without a home. The automaker now needs to choose whether to build them in the U.S. or Canada, with union contract negotiations set for 2023 in both countries. 

Ford has told suppliers to plan for combined annual volume of roughly 100,000 for the Explorer and Aviator EVs, which are moving production from mid-2023 to late 2024. At least three plants — two in the U.S. and one in Canada — now are potentially in the running to get the upgrades needed to build those vehicles. 

It's unclear how soon Ford will assign the electric crossovers to a new plant, and analysts say factors such as a potential expansion of federal incentives for EVs made by unionized U.S. workers could play a role.

"It may be yet to be decided because those incentives aren't finalized," Stephanie Brinley, a principal analyst with IHS Markit, said in an interview. "But even those proposed incentives are still fundamentally short term, and this business will have to be able to survive without them. Ford is looking at where can it invest to build a car for longer than that."

Two analysts, LMC's Drake and Sam Fiorani of AutoForecast Solutions, believe Oakville Assembly in suburban Toronto is the most likely landing spot for the Explorer and Aviator EVs.

 

OAKVILLE-01_i.jpg

Ford has promised to invest $1.8 billion in Oakville Assembly for EV production by 2027.

Oakville currently builds the gasoline-powered Edge and Lincoln Nautilus crossovers, which are expected to be discontinued so the plant can be retooled for EV production in 2024. Ford promised to invest $1.8 billion in Oakville and build five electric models there by 2027 as part of its 2020 contract with Unifor, the Canadian auto workers union.

It would be the easiest fit, Drake said, since it's scheduled to use Ford's next-generation dedicated EV architecture and wouldn't require as much additional investment as other North American plants. 

LMC expects Oakville will have capacity for roughly 200,000 EVs a year, allowing the Explorer and Aviator to slot alongside other nameplates. 

Fiorani, AutoForecast's vice president of global vehicle forecasting, said concentrating a number of EVs in Oakville also would make sense from a supply chain perspective.

Ford doesn't plan to build the Explorer and Aviator EVs alongside their gasoline-powered counterparts in Chicago because that plant is near capacity with no room for expansion. A new EV assembly plant that will be part of the massive Blue Oval City complex Ford is building in Tennessee will make a next-generation F-Series product and won't come online until 2025. 

Ford could consider building the electric crossovers in Ohio, where it previously planned to do so. 

Ohio Assembly, west of Cleveland, builds some larger Super Duty trucks and E-Series vans. Ford in its 2019 contract with the UAW promised the plant would receive a $900 million investment, including a "next-generation product" in 2023, which Automotive News reported were the Explorer and Aviator EVs.

Ford shifted those plans to Mexico in 2019, prompting fiery criticism from then-UAW Vice President Gerald Kariem. The automaker said it would keep its commitment to the Ohio plant by boosting Super Duty production there. 

Should Ford flip-flop again, Drake said it would need to spend big to convert the plant for EVs and boost its annual capacity from just 60,000 today. "Those are not insurmountable challenges," she said. 

Another U.S. option is the underutilized Mustang plant in Flat Rock, Mich. Ford has capacity to build 260,000 vehicles a year there, LMC says, but runs it on only one daily shift. Michigan politicians are working on legislation to attract major investments after the state failed to make a serious bid for Blue Oval City. 

Picking either Flat Rock or Ohio Assembly would let buyers of those vehicles qualify for up to $4,500 in extra government tax credits, should the Biden administration's proposed legislation make it through Congress. 

"Losing out on that extra couple of thousand dollars per vehicle could hurt," Drake said. "It's part of the conversation for sure."

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The one thing that jumped off the page in that article is the claim "It would be the easiest fit, Drake said, since it's scheduled to use Ford's next-generation dedicated EV architecture and wouldn't require as much additional investment as other North American plants." referring to OAC.

 

I thought OAC is getting MEB? Or have Ford's plans changed again?

 

If OAC is still getting MEB, then this person loses credibility immediately for such a fundamental mistake.

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On 12/20/2021 at 11:11 AM, Harley Lover said:

I thought OAC is getting MEB? Or have Ford's plans changed again?

 

If OAC is still getting MEB, then this person loses credibility immediately for such a fundamental mistake.

 

I see the logic of Ford using MEB technology in European plants (and even to have  outsourced VW vehicles in South America eventually), but in North America they should go all in with GE/GE2/TE1 architectures and components.

Edited by passis
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3 hours ago, Harley Lover said:

The one thing that jumped off the page in that article is the claim "It would be the easiest fit, Drake said, since it's scheduled to use Ford's next-generation dedicated EV architecture and wouldn't require as much additional investment as other North American plants." referring to OAC.

 

I thought OAC is getting MEB? Or have Ford's plans changed again?

 

If OAC is still getting MEB, then this person loses credibility immediately for such a fundamental mistake.


I’m wondering if MEB went the way of the Rivian platform (at least for NA). 

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55 minutes ago, sullynd said:


I’m wondering if MEB went the way of the Rivian platform (at least for NA). 

 

Very doubtful

 

The primary reason for Ford to use the MEB is for lower end products like the Escape or other "entry" level vehicles because development costs where shared with VW and VW was actively shopping that platform around to be shared with other manufactures. You would lose that by developing a NA spec only Escape/Kuga. 

Rivian I'm assuming was a mix of product development issues (them being a new company and not thinking about that and Ford not wanting to commit to someone else's tech when they already have toolbox to use) and pollical issues with the business itself. I'm assuming that MEB is flexible enough that Ford could use what it wanted on it and just copy over what VW done on other parts. 

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Remember that the auto news speculation is just that, they haven’t  looked too deeply into the logistics behind the three plants being suggested. It might be none of them.


 

And if the BEV Explorer Aviator twins are not built at CAP, then that will directly affect production and jobs at CAP, if those people cannot transfer to the new plant, then those jobs will be filled by others.

I know that sounds duh to us but it could/will be a big issue at the next contract negotiations 

Edited by jpd80
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Rivian delivered 2 of its new BEV SUVs today. Seems to me Ford can't wait 3-4 years to get the Explorer BEV out there. Or at least come out with a plugin Explorer that has a range greater than the Aviator plugin. And an Explorer hybrid with a bigger battery that gets at least 35mpg in city driving. 

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55 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

Remember that the auto news speculation is just that, they haven’t  looked too deeply into the logistics behind the three plants being suggested. It might be none of them.


 

And if the BEV Explorer Aviator twins are not built at CAP, then that will directly affect production and jobs at CAP, if those people cannot transfer to the new plant, then those jobs will be filled by others.

I know that sounds duh to us but it could/will be a big issue at the next contract negotiations 

Yup! They also had an article saying mach-e was gonna go to OAC a few months ago along with a few codes for product that is supposedly slated for OAC. I read the article and I’m like , OK we’ll see.

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6 hours ago, Harley Lover said:

The one thing that jumped off the page in that article is the claim "It would be the easiest fit, Drake said, since it's scheduled to use Ford's next-generation dedicated EV architecture and wouldn't require as much additional investment as other North American plants." referring to OAC.

 

I thought OAC is getting MEB? Or have Ford's plans changed again?

 

If OAC is still getting MEB, then this person loses credibility immediately for such a fundamental mistake.


i don’t think MEB at oakville was ever confirmed, but rather people connecting dots based on what is rumored to go there.

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3 hours ago, rmc523 said:


i don’t think MEB at oakville was ever confirmed, but rather people connecting dots based on what is rumored to go there.

 

It was confirmed, by Hau Thai-Tang, back in February:

Hau Thai-Tang, Ford Motor Co.’s chief of product platform and operations, said during a conference on Wednesday organized by J.P. Morgan... Ford is planning to borrow Volkswagen’s all-electric platform, the MEB, to serve as underpinnings for a new family of crossover vehicles that will be built in Oakville with Ford designs or top hats and other features and characteristics from Ford.

 

Given this was confirmed in February, there's no telling how many times plans have changed since then - BUT - it was confirmed, not just dreamed up/rumored.

 

https://www.thedetroitbureau.com/2021/02/fords-all-electric-f-150-on-track-for-2022-debut/

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46 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

My first thoughts were that BEV Explorer/Aviator would join BEV Expedition/Navigator down second line at Tennessee.

Failing that, they need a new plant up and ready in the next three years. 

I don't think there are plans for a second line at BOC.  It's being built for F150 Electrics. 

 

The Aviator/Explorer EV will have to find a home within the next six months or so for a late 24' launch.  If your talking Ohio Assembly or Flat Rock, new paint and body shops would probably have to be built.

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While the BEV Explorer or whatever its called is important, CAP is going to be building the current one for at least another 6-7 Model years.

 

The BEV Explorer is more or less a Edge replacement in size. 

Going through the press release for Blue Oval City, only one assembly plant is mentioned with 2-3 battery plants between Tennessee and Kentucky. 

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6 hours ago, Harley Lover said:

 

It was confirmed, by Hau Thai-Tang, back in February:

 

Given this was confirmed in February, there's no telling how many times plans have changed since then - BUT - it was confirmed, not just dreamed up/rumored.

 

https://www.thedetroitbureau.com/2021/02/fords-all-electric-f-150-on-track-for-2022-debut/

 

Whoops, I stand corrected.  Nevermind lol.

 

2 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

Well how about that...its right in front of our faces:

 

628425246_FordEVs.thumb.png.4e7806a1d1061bcd3f49f8c9baa4426c.png

 

But it also begs how are they defining electrification-does that include HEVs?
 

 

Eh, Ford usually uses "electrification" to include hybrids.

 

And notice how the only two that are for sure BEV are the lighter blue?

 

I think the answer is not as obvious as first glance at that chart.

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3 hours ago, Footballfan said:

I don't think there are plans for a second line at BOC.  It's being built for F150 Electrics. 

 

The Aviator/Explorer EV will have to find a home within the next six months or so for a late 24' launch.  If your talking Ohio Assembly or Flat Rock, new paint and body shops would probably have to be built.

It’s being built with two final trim lines.

One line is supposedly for F150, the other is for full sized SUVs. If that’s true then it will be a humongous plant.

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1 hour ago, rmc523 said:

 

Whoops, I stand corrected.  Nevermind lol.

 

 

Eh, Ford usually uses "electrification" to include hybrids.

 

And notice how the only two that are for sure BEV are the lighter blue?

 

I think the answer is not as obvious as first glance at that chart.

I think the lighter blue ones represent new facilities. 

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6 hours ago, jpd80 said:

It’s being built with two final trim lines.

One line is supposedly for F150, the other is for full sized SUVs. If that’s true then it will be a humongous plant.

 

I got that infographic off the press release on Ford's website and they only state the F-150 will be there and not anything else. As we all know, subject to change.

 

Oakville was supposed to get an "absurd" amount of products:

 

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1129696_ford-plans-to-build-5-electric-vehicles-in-canada-beginning-in-2025

Electric-vehicle production will start in 2024, with the last of the five planned models entering production in 2028, Unifor national president Jerry Dias said in an interview with the Toronto Star.

 

So if they are getting 5 models-they are building at least 2 different models-figure a Ford and Lincoln model 2x then maybe another model like say a Continental that is a LWB version?

 

Going by the timing of everything, I think Oakville might be the best slot for the BEV Explorer-size wise it would slot as an Edge replacement.

 

So maybe they will be doing this:

MEB: Next gen Corsair/Escape. Louisville retools for BEV by 2028 for BEV Escape or other models-Figure around 2025 this happens

 

GE2-Explorer "Sport" Edge replacement/Lincoln Model-this launches 2024 as a 2025. Chicago replaces the "full size" Explorer later this decade.

 

The 2028 is an limited production model-Thinking something like a Lincoln range topper or maybe a high end Ford (aka Thunderbird) or even Mustang that will be built in limited numbers. 

 

 

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33 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

I got that infographic off the press release on Ford's website and they only state the F-150 will be there and not anything else. As we all know, subject to change.

 

Oakville was supposed to get an "absurd" amount of products:

 

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1129696_ford-plans-to-build-5-electric-vehicles-in-canada-beginning-in-2025

Electric-vehicle production will start in 2024, with the last of the five planned models entering production in 2028, Unifor national president Jerry Dias said in an interview with the Toronto Star.

 

So if they are getting 5 models-they are building at least 2 different models-figure a Ford and Lincoln model 2x then maybe another model like say a Continental that is a LWB version?

 

Going by the timing of everything, I think Oakville might be the best slot for the BEV Explorer-size wise it would slot as an Edge replacement.

 

So maybe they will be doing this:

MEB: Next gen Corsair/Escape. Louisville retools for BEV by 2028 for BEV Escape or other models-Figure around 2025 this happens

 

GE2-Explorer "Sport" Edge replacement/Lincoln Model-this launches 2024 as a 2025. Chicago replaces the "full size" Explorer later this decade.

 

The 2028 is an limited production model-Thinking something like a Lincoln range topper or maybe a high end Ford (aka Thunderbird) or even Mustang that will be built in limited numbers. 

 

 

This is what I mean about auto news speculation here is an old article from august 2021.      

Aviator EV to lead Lincoln's electric push, and Oakville to play a part

Luxury brand plans four battery-electric models, the first of which is set to be revealed next year

Navigator-MAIN_i.jpg

After appearing to fall behind most of its competitors in the push toward electrification, Lincoln has a plan to add some form of battery power to its entire lineup by the end of the decade.

That will include four battery-electric models, the first of which is set to be revealed next year, timed to the 100th anniversary of Ford purchasing the Lincoln brand. Lincoln continues to invest in its gasoline-powered utilities, except for the Nautilus, which will be discontinued when its life cycle ends in 2023.

Dealers have clamored for more product to sell, and they'll soon get their wish. By mid-decade, Lincoln will add at least two new nameplates, in addition to EV versions of utilities such as the Corsair and Aviator.

Corsair: Despite strong customer reception to the larger Aviator, Lincoln's littlest crossover remains its bestseller. U.S. sales this year are up 8.1 per cent through July, to 14,106, despite the ongoing chip shortage. Sales in Canada up 28 per cent to 1,163 through two quarters. Ford only reports sales on a quarterly basis in Canada. A Lincoln spokeswoman said a plug-in hybrid model called the Corsair GT should be on sale by the end of the month. Expect a freshen late next year and a redesign in 2024.

Brand executives plan to add a battery- electric variant, which forecasting firm AutoForecast Solutions has said will be called the Corsair-E, in 2025. It's scheduled to be built at Ford's Oakville Assembly Plant in Canada, which will switch over to EV production after 2023.

Electric small crossover: Lincoln will launch another C-segment EV, currently known by the program code CX802, in 2025 from Oakville Assembly in Ontario. It's unclear whether the vehicle, expected to be sold in multiple global markets, will be a new nameplate or a variation of the Corsair EV. It will be built on the same GE2 platform as the Corsair EV and the next-generation Ford Mustang Mach-E.

Nautilus/electric midsize crossover: Like the Ford Edge, the Nautilus remains bound for the scrap heap. The brand plans to discontinue the Nautilus in the U.S. — and likely Canada — once its life cycle ends in 2023. The vehicle will be replaced in the lineup by a midsize crossover EV, currently referred to as CDX818, but it's unclear if it will carry the same name. The Nautilus moniker is relatively new, and a source said it wasn't the brand's first choice when it sought to rename the MKX. The EV is scheduled to debut in 2025 and come from Oakville Assembly.

 

AVIATOR.jpg

The gasoline-powered version of the Aviator utility vehicle is scheduled to be freshened in 2023.

Aviator: The Aviator remains a key product for Lincoln, and U.S. sales are up 11 per cent year to date through July. In Canada, sales are up 29 per cent through the second quarter. The gasoline version is scheduled to be freshened in 2023. Lincoln President Joy Falotico has said the Aviator could become the brand's bestseller, and Lincoln picked the nameplate to lead its latest electrification push by introducing the Aviator GT plug-in hybrid last year. And it's not stopping there.

Executives this year said they would reveal the brand's first battery-electric vehicle sometime in 2022. That vehicle will be the Aviator EV, which will go on sale in 2023 and be built alongside the Ford Explorer EV and Mustang Mach-E in Cuautitlan, Mexico.

Navigator: Lincoln just freshened its largest SUV with new technology and some minor cosmetic tweaks to the interior and exterior. The 2022 Navigator, on sale early next year, will be the first Lincoln to feature Ford Motor Co.'s hands-free driver-assist technology, branded as Lincoln ActiveGlide. It also gets over-the-air-update capability, the Sync 4 infotainment system and a pair of new Black Label themes. The exterior includes new headlamps, taillights and tweaks to the grille. Lincoln plans to redesign the Navigator in 2023, when it also will add a hybrid model.

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52 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

I got that infographic off the press release on Ford's website and they only state the F-150 will be there and not anything else. As we all know, subject to change.

 

Oakville was supposed to get an "absurd" amount of products:

 

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1129696_ford-plans-to-build-5-electric-vehicles-in-canada-beginning-in-2025

Electric-vehicle production will start in 2024, with the last of the five planned models entering production in 2028, Unifor national president Jerry Dias said in an interview with the Toronto Star.

 

So if they are getting 5 models-they are building at least 2 different models-figure a Ford and Lincoln model 2x then maybe another model like say a Continental that is a LWB version?

 

Going by the timing of everything, I think Oakville might be the best slot for the BEV Explorer-size wise it would slot as an Edge replacement.

 

So maybe they will be doing this:

MEB: Next gen Corsair/Escape. Louisville retools for BEV by 2028 for BEV Escape or other models-Figure around 2025 this happens

 

GE2-Explorer "Sport" Edge replacement/Lincoln Model-this launches 2024 as a 2025. Chicago replaces the "full size" Explorer later this decade.

 

The 2028 is an limited production model-Thinking something like a Lincoln range topper or maybe a high end Ford (aka Thunderbird) or even Mustang that will be built in limited numbers. 

 

 

MEBs proposed for Oakville in no particular order, Escape/Corsair, Edge/Nautilus, one other mystery vehicle probably European MEB.

 

Im sure that if Ford had its time over, Oakville would be a GE2 plant building Explorer/Aviator and NG Mustang Mach E while building the more price sensitive MEBs in a lower cost plant like Cuautitlan but that won’t be happening.

 

While speculation is interesting, I’m sure that Ford will make some hard decisions that will impact on workers and job future, this is why I’m concerned with Ford getting its act together and becoming super efficient with plants. There’s always a down side…..

 

Edited by jpd80
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15 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

MEBs proposed for Oakville in no particular order, Escape/Corsair, Edge/Nautilus, one other mystery vehicle probably European MEB.

 

Im sure that if Ford had its time over, Oakville would be a GE2 plant building Explorer/Aviator and NG Mustang Mach E while building the more price sensitive MEBs in a lower cost plant like Cuautitlan but that won’t be happening.

 

 

Actually the primary reason the Mach E went into Mexico was because of its favorable status to export vehicles to the EU-The Mach E started as a compliance car for the EU. I'm also assuming it went that way because of just timing aspect with product EOL too. 

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11 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

Actually the primary reason the Mach E went into Mexico was because of its favorable status to export vehicles to the EU-The Mach E started as a compliance car for the EU. I'm also assuming it went that way because of just timing aspect with product EOL too. 

Canada is also a great export hub for commonwealth countries, Edge was exported to Europe and Australia/New Zealand.

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