'21 December/ Year End Total

[rmc523]

2 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

Lincoln could present a good opportunity for Ford to test sales and marketing strategies based on retail sold orders. Maybe Ford could make new Lincoln vehicles in the U.S. available solely via orders, with the goal of zero new car inventory at Lincoln dealerships other than demonstrator vehicles.

 

I mean, I think we've seen that clearly sales in general of all brands, but Lincoln too have been hurt by lack of inventory at dealerships.  Prices may be higher, but sales are clearly lower.  What it could perhaps lead to, though, is fewer available options and more simplification of packages.  With fewer combinations, that'd mean less inventory a dealer would need to keep in order to satisfy customers if there are only a few variants of each model to choose from.

[jpd80]

2 hours ago, akirby said:

At first maybe but you would think after a few months a pattern would emerge and they’d be able to forecast parts requirements pretty closely.  I don’t think the special orders would vary a lot month to month but I could be wrong.  

I agree with you that closer patterning should be possible, both with customer orders and what Ford  builds as dealer stock. I am mindful that Ford loves to lock in suppliers with super long lead times to cut costs and that sometimes it gets those bets wrong. More accuracy with buying trends might lead to a more sophisticated answer.

Edited January 6, 2022 by jpd80
Edited for clarity

[jpd80]

Some info regarding Ford (from AutoNews):

 

 

Quote

Incentives (Q4): $2,522 per vehicle, down 40% from a year earlier, TrueCar says.

 

Average transaction price (Q4): $47,314, up 7.2% from a year earlier, according to TrueCar.

 

Inventory: 243,200 vehicles in December, up 9.6% from November.

 

Quote: "Ford finished the year strong, as the only U.S. automaker hitting the half-million sales mark in the fourth quarter, making Ford America's bestselling automaker. Last year was a foundational year for Ford in the electrified-vehicle segment and this year we continue to expand, adding the F-150 Lightning and E-Transit to our electric vehicle lineup. Looking to the new year, Ford had just over 70,000 new-vehicle orders in December, which will provide continued momentum into 2022." — Andrew Frick, Ford vice president for U.S. and Canada sales

 

Did you know? Ford outsold GM by about 22,000 vehicles in the second half of 2021.

 

 

Edited January 6, 2022 by jpd80

[jasonj80]

16 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Order only vehicle process really mucks up Ford’s long term supplier scheduling, remembering that the Lincolns are built down the same line as the Ford version, everything has to be coordinated. It’s a big problem that Hackett bumped up against with wanting customer orders to be prioritized, it throws out scheduling and JIT supply contracts, not impossible but costs more….which is like a knife in Ford’s ribs.

The biggest problem with the  customers orders is that it is still based in dealer allocation model, look at the Bronco and Maverick launch disasters. Some people that placed an order months after other people with the same trim option can get months sooner because their dealer was out of allocation. People are slowly figuring out to just place the same order at a few dealers if you really want it sooner, just buy if from the dealer who it comes in first at. 

[akirby]

18 minutes ago, jasonj80 said:

The biggest problem with the  customers orders is that it is still based in dealer allocation model, look at the Bronco and Maverick launch disasters. Some people that placed an order months after other people with the same trim option can get months sooner because their dealer was out of allocation. People are slowly figuring out to just place the same order at a few dealers if you really want it sooner, just buy if from the dealer who it comes in first at. 

That’s just a Bronco thing where they’re doing hybrid allocations and that’s also a direct response to Jeep sales in specific areas - that’s part of the allocation formula.

 

But for all other models COVP is eliminating the allocation issue by giving the dealer incremental allocations for each verified order.  

[jasonj80]

1 hour ago, akirby said:

That’s just a Bronco thing where they’re doing hybrid allocations and that’s also a direct response to Jeep sales in specific areas - that’s part of the allocation formula.

 

But for all other models COVP is eliminating the allocation issue by giving the dealer incremental allocations for each verified order.  

Judging by the deliveries of vehicles based on peoples order dates on the F-150/Super duty and Maverick forums it seems allocation is playing a larger part than Ford is leading on. They still have their franchise agreements they need to follow. 

The latest issue now is people seem to be having is the same issue as the Bronco orders when their vehicle shows up dealers are selling it out from people that ordered them or demanding ADMs.

[rmc523]

Stock and production figures for December found at 6G:

 

[akirby]

3 hours ago, jasonj80 said:

Judging by the deliveries of vehicles based on peoples order dates on the F-150/Super duty and Maverick forums it seems allocation is playing a larger part than Ford is leading on. They still have their franchise agreements they need to follow. 

The latest issue now is people seem to be having is the same issue as the Bronco orders when their vehicle shows up dealers are selling it out from people that ordered them or demanding ADMs.

Allocation can’t be an issue when a dealer has multiple super duty orders at priority 2 that aren’t getting built but others at priority 10-19 are being built and delivered at the same dealer.  It’s a parts issue in most cases.

 

Of course even if the dealer has allocation if Ford has more orders than they can schedule in a given time they have to pick and choose and I’m sure bigger dealers will get more in that situation.  But that’s not the traditional allocation issue.

[jpd80]

I find it remarkable that Ford is still getting over 60,000 F Series sales a month with inventory at about half of what was normal, I can understand how that might be given akirby’s explanation of Ford supplying what it can and leaving other higher priority orders. Could Ford be missing on +70,000 sales months because of chips/supply shortages? Absolutely.

Edited January 6, 2022 by jpd80

[FordBuyer]

1 hour ago, akirby said:

Allocation can’t be an issue when a dealer has multiple super duty orders at priority 2 that aren’t getting built but others at priority 10-19 are being built and delivered at the same dealer.  It’s a parts issue in most cases.

 

Of course even if the dealer has allocation if Ford has more orders than they can schedule in a given time they have to pick and choose and I’m sure bigger dealers will get more in that situation.  But that’s not the traditional allocation issue.

 

Bad time to be a small dealer. My small Ford dealer has very hard time getting anything from Ford. And forget getting a Bronco, Maverick, or Mach E. 60 vehicles in inventory and mostly Edge, Ranger, and ICE Escapes.

[mackinaw]

19 minutes ago, FordBuyer said:

Bad time to be a small dealer. My small Ford dealer has very hard time getting anything from Ford. And forget getting a Bronco, Maverick, or Mach E. 60 vehicles in inventory and mostly Edge, Ranger, and ICE Escapes.

 

My local dealer has two vehicles in stock, one F-150 and an Edge.

[jpd80]

35 minutes ago, mackinaw said:

 

My local dealer has two vehicles in stock, one F-150 and an Edge.

That seems so wrong when other dealers with stock are charging like bandits…..

[Anthony]

Can you believe the Challenger was the top selling pony/muscle car last year?  Mustang had its lowest sale year in its history. 
 

https://www.motorauthority.com/news/1134663_dodge-challenger-outsells-ford-mustang-in-2021

 

These types of cars only salvation may be going electric. 

[jpd80]

19 minutes ago, Anthony said:

Can you believe the Challenger was the top selling pony/muscle car last year?  Mustang had its lowest sale year in its history. 
 

https://www.motorauthority.com/news/1134663_dodge-challenger-outsells-ford-mustang-in-2021

 

These types of cars only salvation may be going electric. 

I can believe Challenger beating Mustang sales in a year where chip shortages are really affecting production.

Sure, the looks to be 14k inventory but maybe that’s lost in winter die back of sales….

 

For sure, I think that a BEV muscle car would be kinda cool and 600 hp minimum would be a nod to heritage.

Could come with lumpy idle track and nice burble/ howl when driving or switch to quiet when required.

[jpd80]

I’m impressed with how well Explorer seems to be selling, obviously Ford is prioritising chips for CAP.

it’s a great vehicle, so sad they never did a RHD version but understand why……..

[mackinaw]

38 minutes ago, Anthony said:

Can you believe the Challenger was the top selling pony/muscle car last year?  Mustang had its lowest sale year in its history. 
 

https://www.motorauthority.com/news/1134663_dodge-challenger-outsells-ford-mustang-in-2021

 

These types of cars only salvation may be going electric. 

 

Ever hear of the Mustang Mach-E?

[akirby]

1 hour ago, FordBuyer said:

 

Bad time to be a small dealer. My small Ford dealer has very hard time getting anything from Ford. And forget getting a Bronco, Maverick, or Mach E. 60 vehicles in inventory and mostly Edge, Ranger, and ICE Escapes.

 

1 hour ago, mackinaw said:

 

My local dealer has two vehicles in stock, one F-150 and an Edge.

They’re probably selling them as soon as they come in and delivering special orders.  Nobody should be hurting for sales right now.   

[silvrsvt]

1 hour ago, mackinaw said:

 

Ever hear of the Mustang Mach-E?

 

According to purist that isn't a Mustang...

 

Anyways I'm sure that Mustang sales where artificially limited due to supply chain issues.

[Anthony]

1 hour ago, jpd80 said:

I can believe Challenger beating Mustang sales in a year where chip shortages are really affecting production.

Sure, the looks to be 14k inventory but maybe that’s lost in winter die back of sales….

Why wouldn’t the Challenger be affected by that as well?

 

1 hour ago, mackinaw said:

 

Ever hear of the Mustang Mach-E?

 

Scroll up the page and look how Ford reports the Mustang and the Mach-E sales and get back to me on that. 

[jpd80]

21 minutes ago, Anthony said:

 

Scroll up the page and look how Ford reports the Mustang and the Mach-E sales and get back to me on that. 

D’oh I quoted Escape while tired….sorry Anthony

Edited January 7, 2022 by jpd80

[mackinaw]

3 hours ago, akirby said:

They’re probably selling them as soon as they come in and delivering special orders.  Nobody should be hurting for sales right now.   

 

About a month ago, my local dealer had several F-series, one Bronco (!), a few Bronco Sports, Explorers, Escapes and Rangers parked on his lot.  Finally, I thought, some vehicles in stock.  The Bronco was gone in one day, the others were gone in less than ten days.  As they say, selling like hot cakes.

[rmc523]

2 hours ago, Anthony said:

Why wouldn’t the Challenger be affected by that as well?

 

 

Scroll up the page and look how Ford reports the Mustang and the Mach-E sales and get back to me on that. 

 

Dodge only has what, 3 vehicles?  Challenger, Charger, and Durango.  Easier to spread chips around with that lineup.

[jpd80]

1 hour ago, mackinaw said:

 

About a month ago, my local dealer had several F-series, one Bronco (!), a few Bronco Sports, Explorers, Escapes and Rangers parked on his lot.  Finally, I thought, some vehicles in stock.  The Bronco was gone in one day, the others were gone in less than ten days.  As they say, selling like hot cakes.

That would be the understatement of the day, the fish are jumping into the boat…….

[akirby]

9 hours ago, mackinaw said:

 

About a month ago, my local dealer had several F-series, one Bronco (!), a few Bronco Sports, Explorers, Escapes and Rangers parked on his lot.  Finally, I thought, some vehicles in stock.  The Bronco was gone in one day, the others were gone in less than ten days.  As they say, selling like hot cakes.

Right.  I mean look at Ford’s volume - the last half of the year has been close to normal volume.  What happened is the drought earlier this year decimated inventory and they haven’t been able to catch-up, but they are obviously selling a lot of vehicles.

 

Its like having a 3 month supply of TP but having to use that supply when TP was scarce.  You’re still using the same amount but you haven’t built up the 3 mo th supply yet because you’re using it as fast as you buy it.

[rperez817]

13 hours ago, Anthony said:

These types of cars only salvation may be going electric. 

 

Yes sir Anthony. The CEO of Stellantis' Dodge brand, Tim Kuniskis, said that ICE powered muscle cars "are absolutely numbered because of all the compliance costs. But the performance that those vehicles generate is not numbered." Of course, the solution is electric powertrains, which Kuniskis calls "Performance 2.0".