Ford to 100% electric... Or so some thought..

[blwnsmoke]

Some on here (won't name names.. sir) have mentioned many times Ford is on their way to go100% electric...

 

And then there is this...

 

https://www.bronco6g.com/forum/threads/ford-ceo-jim-farley-confirms-ice-future-for-the-bronco-and-mustang.36113/

 

Not slowing down on ICE vehicles

Ford, however, has no plans to curb production of its gasoline-powered vehicles.
“We continue to see a lot of opportunity in the ICE business,” said Lawler, who called it a “strategic advantage.”

Farley noted the company would increasingly focus its ICE business around products with passionate owners, like Bronco SUVs or Mustang sports cars."

 

[rmc523]

Long term, it may all get to 100% BEV, but nobody said it'll be that tomorrow, and given Bronco just came out, and that we know the new Mustang won't be BEV, those two products (along with others) will be ICE for the forseeable future - at least 6-8 years, and even before or after that, there may be side-by-side sales of ICE and BEV versions.

[FordBuyer]

Right now, more buyers want a BEV than can be built this year and next. And most would be buyers have the means to do it. It will be interesting to see what happens when supply meets demand, and if BEVs still cost thousands more than ICE vehicles. And if average range of BEV is as good as ICE and as easy to charge as gas up. So Ford is smart to proceed cautiously and still offer ICE versions of many of its BEV offerings. Cover all bases to meet all the needs of its customers. 

[rperez817]

The "opportunity in the ICE business" and "strategic advantage" Lawler spoke about is extremely short term. Long term, the Ford+ transformation plan that was mentioned during the May 2021 investor day event targets 40% of Ford's global vehicle production to be all electric by 2030, and 100% zero emission vehicles (practically, that means BEV because Ford isn't keen about FCEV) by 2035.

 

The sooner Ford exits the "ICE business", the better chance the company has of being a leader in the automotive industry 20 years from now.

 

[akirby]

1 hour ago, FordBuyer said:

Right now, more buyers want a BEV than can be built this year and next. 

They also want way more Broncos, Mavericks and Bronco Sports than can be built.  And volume wise that’s a lot more units than BEVs.

[pictor]

It is shame that the Bronco sport wasn’t the design put into KC and escape to Mexico. Better match of supply and demand.

[jpd80]

15 minutes ago, pictor said:

It is shame that the Bronco sport wasn’t the design put into KC and escape to Mexico. Better match of supply and demand.

The problem isn’t the plants, it’s the supply of chips and other parts, Escape would would sell in higher numbers if they could build more too.

[bzcat]

Ford never said it was going to full EV but noticed Farley said ICE will become more niche focused on vehicles with "passionate owners, like Bronco SUVs or Mustang sports cars". No one is holding any illusions that Ford will still be selling mass amount of ICE Focus or Escape by the end of the decade. 

[bzcat]

7 hours ago, jpd80 said:

The problem isn’t the plants, it’s the supply of chips and other parts, Escape would would sell in higher numbers if they could build more too.

 

That's true to an extent but Ford pulled back on Escape production long before the pandemic and chip shortage dating back to the previous generation. The segment got a lot more crowded and Honda, Toyota, and Nissan added massive volume with new 2nd (or 3rd) plants building CR-V, RAV4, and Rogue for US market; and new entrants with really strong products like Mazda CX-5 and VW Tiguan also squeezed Escape, which languished with long product cycle, out of the market. Let's hope Ford won't leave Escape and Bronco Sport with 8 year cycles again without any meaningful mid cycle update. Next gen full EV version should be due no later than 5 or 6 years which would mean new Escape EV in 2025 and Bronco Sport EV in 2026. 

Edited February 9, 2022 by bzcat

[rmc523]

1 hour ago, bzcat said:

 

That's true to an extent but Ford pulled back on Escape production long before the pandemic and chip shortage dating back to the previous generation. The segment got a lot more crowded and Honda, Toyota, and Nissan added massive volume with new 2nd (or 3rd) plants building CR-V, RAV4, and Rogue for US market; and new entrants with really strong products like Mazda CX-5 and VW Tiguan also squeezed Escape, which languished with long product cycle, out of the market. Let's hope Ford won't leave Escape and Bronco Sport with 8 year cycles again without any meaningful mid cycle update. Next gen full EV version should be due no later than 5 or 6 years which would mean new Escape EV in 2025 and Bronco Sport EV in 2026. 

well we’ve already seen shots of the refreshed escape (with a much better face) so that’s good

 

 

Edited February 9, 2022 by rmc523

[jpd80]

@ bzcat,

At the moment, production of  Bronco Sport, Maverick and Escape are all constrained by chip and supply shortages,  my response to Pictor regarding second guessing production switches for Escape and Bronco Sport to different plants wouldn’t help the current situation 

 

Ford’s decision to place Bronco Sport and Maverick in Mexico was driven by cost reduction, Louisville is now clearly under-utilised with Escape sales receding since the peak of 2016 for the reasons mentioned in bzcat’s post but also C2 Escape Luke warm reception and added good competition these days. In any regard, I don’t see any advantage in upsetting the apple cart now to switch Escape to Hermosillo and Bronco Sport to Louisville, Ford just wouldn’t do that now the money has been spent.

 

With regards to 100% electrification, Ford clearly loves to use that term to blur the lines and live in two worlds, one that continues highly profitable ICE and hybrid sales  while promoting all the coming BEV models arriving, the thought that these vehicles will add to existing sales for the moment while eventually replacing them. The big question is actual sales depth, something nobody knows beyond a few hundred thousand reservations…

Edited February 9, 2022 by jpd80

[FordBuyer]

1 hour ago, jpd80 said:

@ bzcat,

At the moment, production of  Bronco Sport, Maverick and Escape are all constrained by chip and supply shortages,  my response to Pictor regarding second guessing production switches for Escape and Bronco Sport to different plants wouldn’t help the current situation 

 

Ford’s decision to place Bronco Sport and Maverick in Mexico was driven by cost reduction, Louisville is now clearly under-utilised with Escape sales receding since the peak of 2016 for the reasons mentioned in bzcat’s post but also C2 Escape Luke warm reception and added good competition these days. In any regard, I don’t see any advantage in upsetting the apple cart now to switch Escape to Hermosillo and Bronco Sport to Louisville, Ford just wouldn’t do that now the money has been spent.

 

With regards to 100% electrification, Ford clearly loves to use that term to blur the lines and live in two worlds, one that continues highly profitable ICE and hybrid sales  while promoting all the coming BEV models arriving, the thought that these vehicles will add to existing sales for the moment while eventually replacing them. The big question is actual sales depth, something nobody knows beyond a few hundred thousand reservations…

 

Other than Tesla, there is no other high volume BEV seller. Mach E, Bolt, Leaf at best do 3,000/month and the Leaf especially is very affordable with range now competitive. Will see how well the VW ID4 sells. And the Kia BEVs. So other than the BEV Lightning and Silverado that look like high volume sellers, there are none yet other than Tesla. And will see how many Lightning reservations are turned into outright sales.

 

With new subsidies from government, more convenient charging stations, cheaper, more powerful batteries, a robust supply chain, and cheaper sticker prices, BEVs have a dominant future. But that is not here yet.

 

I know I hate it when the engine kicks on in my hybrid. The electric mode is so quiet and extends the fuel significantly. Impossible for me to go back to ICE only unless it's a high powered sports car with a Flat 6 or V8. No more pedestrian ICE for me.

 

[7Mary3]

I will say with absolute certainty that Ford will build what the EPA and CARB will allow and the customer will buy.  If BEV's really take off Farley will dump ICE vehicles as quickly as he can.  See where we are in 5 years.

[jpd80]

2 hours ago, 7Mary3 said:

I will say with absolute certainty that Ford will build what the EPA and CARB will allow and the customer will buy.  If BEV's really take off Farley will dump ICE vehicles as quickly as he can.  See where we are in 5 years.

Before that happens, I can see most ICE passenger vehicles becoming hybrid and PHEVs, maybe even extended range EV which is code for a PHEV with a bigger battery. 
 

While BEVs are advancing, there’s still a lot of skeptical buyers that want ICE to continue but I do see a growing transition to BEVs, we just don’t know the depth on that now but it will become apparent in the next couple of years.

Edited February 10, 2022 by jpd80

[rmc523]

3 hours ago, 7Mary3 said:

I will say with absolute certainty that Ford will build what the EPA and CARB will allow and the customer will buy.  If BEV's really take off Farley will dump ICE vehicles as quickly as he can.  See where we are in 5 years.

 

Sure but he's also not going to completely abandon ICE customers tomorrow, especially for core products.

[FordBuyer]

1 hour ago, jpd80 said:

Before that happens, I can see most ICE passenger vehicles becoming hybrid and PHEVs, maybe even extended range EV which is code for a PHEV with a bigger battery. 
 

While BEVs are advancing, there’s still a lot of skeptical buyers that want ICE to continue but I do see a growing transition to BEVs, we just don’t know the depth on that now but it will become apparent in the next couple of years.

 

That seems to be the Ford strategy going forward. About 60% hybrids/plugins, and maybe 40% BEVs by 2030 or so. And then take it from there as the feedback/sales numbers come in. Toyota is certainly using that strategy. Foolish IMO to go head first into only BEVs like GM.

[silvrsvt]

20 minutes ago, FordBuyer said:

 

That seems to be the Ford strategy going forward. About 60% hybrids/plugins, and maybe 40% BEVs by 2030 or so. And then take it from there as the feedback/sales numbers come in. Toyota is certainly using that strategy. Foolish IMO to go head first into only BEVs like GM.

 

I think the numbers are going to be switched around 60% BEVs and 40% PHEV

[FordBuyer]

7 hours ago, jpd80 said:

@ bzcat,

At the moment, production of  Bronco Sport, Maverick and Escape are all constrained by chip and supply shortages,  my response to Pictor regarding second guessing production switches for Escape and Bronco Sport to different plants wouldn’t help the current situation 

 

Ford’s decision to place Bronco Sport and Maverick in Mexico was driven by cost reduction, Louisville is now clearly under-utilised with Escape sales receding since the peak of 2016 for the reasons mentioned in bzcat’s post but also C2 Escape Luke warm reception and added good competition these days. In any regard, I don’t see any advantage in upsetting the apple cart now to switch Escape to Hermosillo and Bronco Sport to Louisville, Ford just wouldn’t do that now the money has been spent.

 

With regards to 100% electrification, Ford clearly loves to use that term to blur the lines and live in two worlds, one that continues highly profitable ICE and hybrid sales  while promoting all the coming BEV models arriving, the thought that these vehicles will add to existing sales for the moment while eventually replacing them. The big question is actual sales depth, something nobody knows beyond a few hundred thousand reservations…

 

I hate to think it as an Escape owner, but I predict Escape's days are numbered. There is talk of a Maverick CUV making the Escape redundant. Escape sales have going down every year and Maverick is hot. So take advantage with a CUV Maverick and run with it. I guess you could say the Bronco Sport is the Maverick CUV, but the Maverick CUV could be less boxy, more cargo room, more fuel efficient, better towing, and still be more rugged looking than Escape. Besides, it will take more than a new front end to turn Escape into a better seller. 

[jpd80]

33 minutes ago, FordBuyer said:

 

I hate to think it as an Escape owner, but I predict Escape's days are numbered. There is talk of a Maverick CUV making the Escape redundant. Escape sales have going down every year and Maverick is hot. So take advantage with a CUV Maverick and run with it. I guess you could say the Bronco Sport is the Maverick CUV, but the Maverick CUV could be less boxy, more cargo room, more fuel efficient, better towing, and still be more rugged looking than Escape. Besides, it will take more than a new front end to turn Escape into a better seller. 

Looks like Ford is trying another update with Escape, it might be a case of getting trim and features right, maybe pushing hybrid more as a standard option like Maverick.

 

A Maverick SUV might work as a new squarer Escape maybe longer wheelbase…letting Kuga be a Euro ROW product, I’m probably dreaming though….

Edited February 10, 2022 by jpd80

[bzcat]

Escape came out in 2019 for 2020 model year so it is due for mid cycle update in 2022 for 2023 model year. So we'll see if Farley can sprinkle some Bronco Sport and Maverick magic on it.

 

All new EV Escape should be due in 2025... but who knows if Ford can pull off a normal 5~6 year model cycle the rest of the industry seems to have no issue sticking with. 

[rperez817]

3 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

I think the numbers are going to be switched around 60% BEVs and 40% PHEV

 

Here are additional numbers and timelines for Ford Europe. North America and Asia/Pacific regions lag right now in terms of Ford's electrification timeline, but if automotive emissions regulations including BEV mandates in those regions achieve harmonization with Europe (which is likely), Jim Farley will dump ICE vehicles as quickly as he can in all regions where Ford does business just as 7Mary3 said.

 

Edited February 10, 2022 by rperez817

[Footballfan]

48 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

 

Here are additional numbers and timelines for Ford Europe. North America and Asia/Pacific regions lag right now in terms of Ford's electrification timeline, but if automotive emissions regulations including BEV mandates in those regions achieve harmonization with Europe (which is likely), Jim Farley will dump ICE vehicles as quickly as he can in all regions where Ford does business just as 7Mary3 said.

 

 

8 hours ago, 7Mary3 said:

I will say with absolute certainty that Ford will build what the EPA and CARB will allow and the customer will buy.  If BEV's really take off Farley will dump ICE vehicles as quickly as he can.  See where we are in 5 years.

Bottom line the customer is going to buy what they want. At the end of the day no politician or company is going to dictate what folks are going to drive.  If they do, they will pay in the marketplace and at the ballot box.  

 

EVs are being pushed by the Greenies and a bunch of clueless politicians who care neither about the environment nor know the workings of the auto industry.

 

EVs will have a place, mind you, as locally dispatched commercial/delivery vehicles and daily drivers all of which can be charged in one's garage or place of business.  The brick wall that these "all electric" dreams will hit is not enough charging stations and not enough electricity to power them.  

Edited February 10, 2022 by Footballfan

[twintornados]

4 hours ago, Footballfan said:

 

Bottom line the customer is going to buy what they want. At the end of the day no politician or company is going to dictate what folks are going to drive.  If they do, they will pay in the marketplace and at the ballot box.  

 

EVs are being pushed by the Greenies and a bunch of clueless politicians who care neither about the environment nor know the workings of the auto industry.

 

EVs will have a place, mind you, as locally dispatched commercial/delivery vehicles and daily drivers all of which can be charged in one's garage or place of business.  The brick wall that these "all electric" dreams will hit is not enough charging stations and not enough electricity to power them.  

 

What will dictate the future of EV's will be market forces...if it is viable, it will sell.

[Tico]

Quote

The transition to EVs will be an evolution not a revolution.  It may go slower or faster than some predict but it will not happen by 2030 or 2035 or any random date. There will be ICE engines for those how want / need them for the foreseeable future, meaning the remainder of this decade at the very least. Right now because of there cost  and other limitations BEV are niche products. No one knows for sure if supply was unlimited what the actual demand is. When BEV meets or beats ICE in most categories then ICE will be reduced to only a small part of the retail market. That day will come. But if any body tells you they know what year that is they are full of BS. There are too many variables. Personally I currently own one ecoboost and one hybrid (not plug in) vehicle because they are a good balance between cost, new technology, performance and efficiency. My previous two vehicles were a V8 and V6. I expect my next two vehicles toward the end of the decade to be a PHEV and a BEV.  Slow transition as it makes sense for me.  Others may move slower or faster than me. To each his own.

 

[rperez817]

4 hours ago, twintornados said:

What will dictate the future of EV's will be market forces...if it is viable, it will sell.

 

Yes sir, given that the demand for well designed BEV far exceeds supply, they are viable for sure. The biggest issue nowadays is for automakers to ramp up production capacity for BEV fast enough.

 

Because the global automotive industry is heavily regulated, government regulations also play a key role in dictating that industry's future. And of course capital markets play a key role too. Both of those are "all in" with electric vehicles.