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Ford’s Lincoln brand to launch full slate of electric SUVs by 2026 -sources


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5 hours ago, GrussGott said:

Ford can compete & Farley seems to be the right guy at the right time ... but he also seems like a guy who knows if he fails it's over.

 

Most definitely GrussGott. This is what makes Farley a better leader than his counterpart at General Motors, Mary Barra. Farley recognizes the competitive threat that Tesla presents to Ford. He said in a Ford employee town hall last year that "adapt or die" are the only choices Ford has at this point.

 

For Lincoln, the challenge is to continue the brand's renaissance when it comes to design, then combine that with a transition to a 100% BEV product lineup, and finally figure out a path to profitability. As late as 2018, analysts at Morgan Stanley and AlixPartners estimated that the Lincoln brand was one component of Ford deemed unprofitable.

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On 2/15/2022 at 7:07 AM, rperez817 said:

Morgan Stanley and AlixPartners estimated that the Lincoln brand was one component of Ford deemed unprofitable.

Good points - I wonder if China is fixing that?

 

Lincoln has had some tough years in 2020 and 2021 - hopefully this year will be a success with the Navigator ... I'm seeing press that Lincolns are some of the few vehicles still selling for under MSRP.

 

This new Gator will need to be a quality success as another screwed up launch may be game over in the US

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7 hours ago, GrussGott said:

Good points - I wonder if China is fixing that?

 

Lincoln has had some tough years in 2020 and 2021 - hopefully this year will be a success with the Navigator ... I'm seeing press that Lincolns are some of the few vehicles still selling for under MSRP.

 

This new Gator will need to be a quality success as another screwed up launch may be game over in the US

 

Great discussion GrussGott. Growth of the Lincoln brand in China, which is quickly becoming its biggest market if it isn't already, gives reason for optimism. The announcement of a full slate of Lincoln BEV SUVs/crossovers being put in production by 2026 is great news too.

 

But like you indicated, if any of Lincoln's upcoming product launches gets screwed up as was the case so frequently in the past for Ford/Lincoln, it may well mark the end of the Lincoln brand in the U.S. 

Edited by rperez817
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  • 1 month later...

Fairly decent discussion, but careful everyone with "totally" and "completely" as obviously those are hyperboles that are factually incorrect though used, I expect, to try to make a point. Moving more toward vertically-integrated production is a different approach from what Ford/Lincoln have been doing lately, but the elements that go into that production model are not totally and completely different. 

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On 3/28/2022 at 4:46 AM, Gurgeh said:

Fairly decent discussion, but careful everyone with "totally" and "completely" as obviously those are hyperboles that are factually incorrect though used, I expect, to try to make a point. Moving more toward vertically-integrated production is a different approach from what Ford/Lincoln have been doing lately, but the elements that go into that production model are not totally and completely different. 

Not really, unless you're using "elements" in the most general way as in "both assemble car bodies".

 

Ford's approach has always been to outsource everything possible to suppliers and then lever the suppliers to take on the financial risk of carrying inventory, delivering it to them only when ready, and only paying for it after it's been built into a vehicle.  This is how an accountant (i.e., Harvard MBA trained at MBB) would design auto assembly ... whereas Tesla is taking a first-principles approach where they control as many of the components as possible and eliminate as many steps as possible (e.g., the new front casting machine).

 

This is why Tesla can put together a vehicle 3x faster and 30% cheaper than, say, Volkswagen ... and it's also why 3 years ago Tesla was the laughing stock of auto assembly & now they're the benchmark.  Tesla had to prove it could work by standing up a new factory in 9 months and pumping out units cheaper & faster than any competitors.

 

The only way for Ford to duplicate Tesla's productivity & efficiency is to wholly change their entire assembly mindset ... and then build that into a completely new factory with completely new workers ... which is why they're building Blue Oval City (and VW is building their new plant in Wolfsburg)

 

This is also why Farley is saying Ford needs "radically different human talent" and why he put Doug Field (Apple / Tesla guy) in charge of his EV division - new blood, new mindset, new engineering, new factory, new processes, et al

 

--------------------------

and just for history's sake, the way all the OEMs got into this mess was:

 

(1.) Building non-serious "compliance cars" during the '00s & '10s

(2.) Believing the cheapest path forward was mixed platform & mixed assembly

(3.) Panicking & rushing products to market that are either obviously inferior (ID3) or too expensive or difficult to make (Mach-E)

 

GM is the only OEM to build an EV platform from the ground up (Ultium) and factory to match (Factory ZERO) and they're about hit the market pretty big:

 

* BrightDrop EV600 commercial van (for FedEx, WalMart, et al), delivered
* 2024 Hummer - 65,000 pre-orders
* 2023 Cadillac Lyriq - 230,000 interested buyers, starts production ... monday?
* 2023 Chevy Silverado EV
* 2023 GMC Sierra EV
* 2023 Bolt CUV EV
* 2023 Chevy Blazer EV
* 2024 Chevy Equinox EV
* 2025 Cadillac Celestiq EV

 

Other Stuff
* New wholly-owned EV GM brand to sell american made cars in China
* GM's Chinese JVs (e.g., SAIC, FAW, et al)
* GM's new commercial service org under Steve Hill

* Cruise

 

And
* PureWatercraft - GM backed EV boats

 

Ford & Farley have taken a different approach: rush products to market on mixed platforms/factories ... it's probably the right strategy for Ford at this point, but it's risky.

 

Edited by GrussGott
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3 hours ago, GrussGott said:

Ford & Farley have taken a different approach: rush products to market on mixed platforms/factories ... it's probably the right strategy for Ford at this point, but it's risky.

 

That's correct GrussGott. Very risky indeed, but it's something Ford must do order to achieve its electrification goals for both Ford and Lincoln brands and make up for its past mistakes in that area.

 

The good news is that Ford is making progress getting the "radically different human talent" it needs to succeed with BEV. In addition to Doug Field, Alan Clarke (Tesla's former engineering director) now works for Ford too. As Ford continues to grow its in-house BEV talent over the next few years, and as Blue Oval City and the revamped BEV focused Cologne site among others commence operations, I think the "totally and completely different production model" necessary for BEV leadership will become the norm at Ford by 2030. 

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20 hours ago, rperez817 said:

I think the "totally and completely different production model" necessary for BEV leadership will become the norm at Ford by 2030. 

 

We'll see but I don't think anyone doubts that Farley gets it, he sees the landscape for what it is, he's got a plan to fix it, and it's a damn good plan.

 

Most importantly Farley realizes that Tesla's production speed & efficiency far surpasses anything Ford has ever done and Tesla's direct engagement with the supply chain is radically different than anything Ford has ever done ...

 

Tesla's "secret" nickle deal is a great case in point: instead of leaving it to cell suppliers, Tesla is going directly to the raw materials producers to secure resources and slowly producing the cells directly themselves or, at a minimum, to their spec (4680).

 

Another example is Tesla's chip pivot; instead of buying the assembled circuit boards (or assembled modules), Tesla is buying the chips directly AND writing the firmware code that goes onto the chips that are then assembled onto boards.

 

People laughed at Tesla for these moves 2 years ago but now everyone is trying to duplicate it.

23 hours ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

Ok Mr. Tesla Stan, where's that $35,000 Model 3?

 

I'll hang up and listen. 

 

(1.) It's not about being a stan; any mediocre industry analyst looking at the data can see what's happening

 

(2.) I don't like Tesla products, have never owned one, and don't own the stock other than via index - but I'm not blind either

 

(3.) As for a $35k M3, Tesla doesn't need one and they DEFINITELY shouldn't want one; Tesla is supply limited and can't meet demand for their existing products - creating new products in that scenario is the road to bankruptcy.

 

One business lesson I'll never forget is: of new businesses that go bankrupt, most do so at their highest point of profitability.  The reason is because they get a hit, get supply limited, then try to make 50 new products, which requires all kinds of capital spend, then they catch up with demand, then demand slumps, then the bills start pouring in, then they have layoffs, then customer service falls, then demand falls further, then bankruptcy.

 

Ford is taking the mixed platform path (vs GM who's building from scratch) for much the same reason: keep the capital spend as low as possible, go easy on new products, meet demand of your winners.

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3 hours ago, GrussGott said:

Ford is taking the mixed platform path (vs GM who's building from scratch) for much the same reason: keep the capital spend as low as possible, go easy on new products, meet demand of your winners.


Exactly.  Ford chose less up front investment and faster to market in a somewhat unknown market.  They also targeted commercial buyers with E transit and Lightning.  GM will have a head start on lower costs but had to spend a lot more to get there and be later to market and Ford is catching up fast.  Both are good strategies.

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I forgot to point out that while GM was investing in Ultium, Ford was doing Lightning, Mach E, E Transit AND creating and launching Bronco, Bronco Sport and Maverick. So while GM may have an early advantage with Ultium I think Ford is happy with their investment decisions.  You can never look at only one piece of an I vestment strategy.

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2 hours ago, akirby said:

I forgot to point out that while GM was investing in Ultium, Ford was doing Lightning, Mach E, E Transit AND creating and launching Bronco, Bronco Sport and Maverick. So while GM may have an early advantage with Ultium I think Ford is happy with their investment decisions.  You can never look at only one piece of an I vestment strategy.


You forget that Ford's strategy is doomed to fail because it's Ford's strategy. Or at least that's what I'm told by certain people 

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On 4/2/2022 at 8:02 AM, akirby said:

GM will have a head start on lower costs but had to spend a lot more to get there and be later to market and Ford is catching up fast.  Both are good strategies.

 

Correct, the respective strategies for GM and Ford regarding BEV development and production are appropriate for each company's current situation.

 

 

1 hour ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

You forget that Ford's strategy is doomed to fail because it's Ford's strategy. 

 

There is always a risk of failure for any business strategy, for any business. Jim Farley's strategy for BEV (both Ford and Lincoln brands) takes into consideration Ford's strengths and weaknesses, as well as Ford's position in the marketplace. Plus, as mentioned earlier Farley recognizes that "adapt or die" are the only choices Ford Motor Company has nowadays amid the ongoing automotive industry revolution. He is not going to let Ford die on his watch. 

 

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