Ford’s Lincoln brand to launch full slate of electric SUVs by 2026 -sources

[Andrew L]

https://www.reuters.com/technology/exclusive-fords-lincoln-brand-launch-full-slate-electric-suvs-by-2026-sources-2022-02-10/

 

DETROIT, Feb 10 (Reuters) - Ford Motor Co (F.N) is stepping up plans to extensively electrify its Lincoln brand in North America, as it prepares to introduce at least five new battery-powered Lincoln sport utility vehicles through 2026, three people familiar with the plans told Reuters.

 

Included are battery-electric models that will replace or supplement the Lincoln Corsair, Nautilus, Aviator and Navigator, said the sources, who asked not to be identified.

 

 

The strategy to electrify Lincoln is a key element of Ford's planned $30 billion investment in EVs and batteries through 2030. Ford announced the $30 billion initiative in May 2021.

 

The automaker has said it will have the annual capacity to build at least 600,000 electric vehicles globally within 24 months, when it aims to become "the clear No. 2 electric vehicle maker in North America" behind Tesla Inc

 

 

So I thought the original plan was 2030 but I guess they bumped things up.  Makes me wonder how they will handle the Navigator, have to think about weight, towing, all of that and not affect range too much.

[Bellanca]

1 hour ago, Andrew L said:

https://www.reuters.com/technology/exclusive-fords-lincoln-brand-launch-full-slate-electric-suvs-by-2026-sources-2022-02-10/

 

 

 

 

So I thought the original plan was 2030 but I guess they bumped things up.  Makes me wonder how they will handle the Navigator, have to think about weight, towing, all of that and not affect range too much.

Well maybe they will still have ICE powered vehicles as well during this time; the article I read didn’t say they would be exclusively electric by 2026. 

[voidoid]

Very curious what they intend to replace the Nautilus with, and what the Edge equivalent would be.  Still miffed they're giving the Edge the axe, it's the perfect sized vehicle (the cargo space is amazing) and it's better looking than most of the Ford lineup.  The Escape is downright fugly by comparison.

[akirby]

34 minutes ago, voidoid said:

Very curious what they intend to replace the Nautilus with, and what the Edge equivalent would be.  Still miffed they're giving the Edge the axe, it's the perfect sized vehicle (the cargo space is amazing) and it's better looking than most of the Ford lineup.  The Escape is downright fugly by comparison.

Nautilus ICE will be imported from China along with Edge and Nautilus BEVs.

[Andrew L]

47 minutes ago, akirby said:

Nautilus ICE will be imported from China along with Edge and Nautilus BEVs.

 

I was really hoping Ford/Lincoln would stay away from the 'imported from China' game

[Watson138]

1 hour ago, akirby said:

Nautilus ICE will be imported from China along with Edge and Nautilus BEVs.

It's a shame they will have to important these.

[akirby]

2 hours ago, Andrew L said:

 

I was really hoping Ford/Lincoln would stay away from the 'imported from China' game

With all the new BEVs it’s either kill it or import it.

[GrussGott]

On 2/11/2022 at 9:44 AM, Andrew L said:

 

Makes me wonder how they will handle the Navigator, have to think about weight, towing, all of that and not affect range too much.

 

F-150 lightning - basically the same way the Navigator is now, based on the ICE F-150.

[Footballfan]

On 2/11/2022 at 5:53 PM, akirby said:

Nautilus ICE will be imported from China along with Edge and Nautilus BEVs.

Add three more vehicles to the top of my "do not buy" list.  This ought to make the UAW real happy unless they fill up capacity at Louisville and Flat Rock. 

Edited February 13, 2022 by Footballfan

[Footballfan]

On 2/11/2022 at 9:12 PM, akirby said:

With all the new BEVs it’s either kill it or import it.

They may as well kill em.  There are/will be other North American built entrants to consider. 

[GrussGott]

3 hours ago, Footballfan said:

They may as well kill em.  There are/will be other North American built entrants to consider. 

 

Aren't Blue Oval City & BlueOvalSK the new US factories Ford/Lincoln needs to compete in the BEV space?

 

Given BEVs require totally different engineering & assembly, Ford (and VW and everyone else but Tesla) needs completely new infrastructure in the US; and prior to that, to compete in the US BEV market, they'll need to import from their other plants built with BEV infrastructure. 

 

I would think the UAW would want those 6,000+ Tennessee / USA jobs and would be doing everything they can to help Ford get into the BEV market - including supporting imports in the meantime.

 

The new BEV Navigator (I bet) would be one of the vehicles produced in the new Tennessee plant.

Edited February 13, 2022 by GrussGott

[Footballfan]

2 hours ago, GrussGott said:

 

Aren't Blue Oval City & BlueOvalSK the new US factories Ford/Lincoln needs to compete in the BEV space?

 

Given BEVs require totally different engineering & assembly, Ford (and VW and everyone else but Tesla) needs completely new infrastructure in the US; and prior to that, to compete in the US BEV market, they'll need to import from their other plants built with BEV infrastructure. 

 

I would think the UAW would want those 6,000+ Tennessee / USA jobs and would be doing everything they can to help Ford get into the BEV market - including supporting imports in the meantime.

 

The new BEV Navigator (I bet) would be one of the vehicles produced in the new Tennessee plant.

The UAW will not get anywhere near 6000 new members at BOC.  Tenn and KY are right-to-work states, and most plants that have tried to organize in those areas were met with failure. Supporting Chinese imports would be a great way for a union official to be voted out. Besides, any plant can be modified to build EVs- remember you can engineer anything. 

Edited February 13, 2022 by Footballfan

[akirby]

8 hours ago, Footballfan said:

Add three more vehicles to the top of my "do not buy" list.  This ought to make the UAW real happy unless they fill up capacity at Louisville and Flat Rock. 

I used poor wording there.  Only Nautilus is supposed to be imported the other two are slated for Oakville.

[akirby]

4 hours ago, GrussGott said:

Given BEVs require totally different engineering & assembly,

BEVs are not “totally different engineering and assembly”.  Most of it is the same - body, paint, suspension, tires, wheels, interior.  Some things are simpler - no exhaust, less fluids, more subassemblies but the basics are the same.

[rperez817]

1 hour ago, akirby said:

BEVs are not “totally different engineering and assembly”.  

 

BEV production is optimized for "totally different engineering and assembly". Tesla's undisputed leadership in BEV production capabilities comes from having a "totally different" approach. For example, at the Texas Gigafactory, Tesla uses 2 megacastings connected via the battery pack to comprise part of the chassis for Model Y. This does away with hundreds of individual parts that would otherwise need to be welded or joined via fasteners and adhesives, and dramatically simplifies vehicle assembly.

 

The transition from ICE powered vehicles to BEV is a revolution, and the techniques associated with assembling BEV will be a revolution too. Ford and Lincoln should be in good shape here with their Ion Park R&D facilities along with the greenfield BEV optimized assembly plants under construction in Tennessee.

[GrussGott]

6 hours ago, akirby said:

BEVs are not “totally different engineering and assembly”.  Most of it is the same - body, paint, suspension, tires, wheels, interior.  Some things are simpler - no exhaust, less fluids, more subassemblies but the basics are the same.

You better tell the CEOs of Ford & VW your opinion because they disagree with you ...

 

Sure, an MFR can turn any building into anything ... for a PRICE ... and, sure, an MFR can make much of BEV on old infrastructure ... for a uncompetitive COST in time & labor ...

The business question is, can Ford COMPETITIVELY make a BEV on existing US infrastructure?   And that answer is no.  A modern BEV assembly must be vertically integrated and nothing Ford has in the US is.

 

So it turns out that to competitively make BEVs, a MFR needs totally different, i.e., vertically integrated, engineering and assembly.  So, yes, totally different.

 

Ford:

BlueOval City will become a vertically integrated ecosystem for Ford to assemble an expanded lineup of electric F-Series vehicles and will include a BlueOval SK battery plant, key suppliers and recycling

Farley: "“We are moving now to deliver breakthrough electric vehicles for the many rather than the few. It’s about creating good jobs that support American families, an ultra-efficient, carbon-neutral manufacturing system, and a growing business that delivers value for communities, dealers and shareholders.”  “BlueOval City’s assembly plant will harness ... cutting-edge technologies to deliver cost efficiencies"

 

VW:

Tesla is swiftly improving built quality and looks set to achieve a production time of just 10 hours per car at its Gruenheide plant, Diess said Thursday in a prepared speech at a staff meeting in Wolfsburg. VW's main electric-car factory in Zwickau needs more than 30 hours per vehicle, which should be reduced to 20 hours next year.

 

Further, it should be noted that the most productive auto plant in the World, i.e., makes the most vehicles of any type, is Tesla's Shanghai plant with > 850,000 vehicles in 2021 AND they're opening up a new line.  There's a reason Tesla is patenting their assembly & production process & equipment.

 

Any auto manufacturer that doesn't build new BEV plants with completely different - vertically integrated - engineering & assembly won't be able to compete in cost or production and will die.

Edited February 13, 2022 by GrussGott

[GrussGott]

8 hours ago, Footballfan said:

Besides, any plant can be modified to build EVs- remember you can engineer anything. 

Right, you'll just go bankrupt doing it.

 

At the end of the day, companies need to make a profit from competitively priced products

 

We can all engineer & build rockets in our backyards, but that doesn't mean we're SpaceX, right?

Edited February 13, 2022 by GrussGott

[GrussGott]

8 hours ago, Footballfan said:

The UAW will not get anywhere near 6000 new members at BOC.  

It's probably true that the UAW won't be given any new members; they'll have to earn them with appealing cost-effective benefits+ membership.

 

So, yeah, if the UAW can't earn the members with an appealing offering then they probably won't get many new members.

[rperez817]

3 hours ago, GrussGott said:

Any auto manufacturer that doesn't build new BEV plants with completely different - vertically integrated - engineering & assembly won't be able to compete in cost or production and will die.

 

Yes sir GrussGott, that is exactly correct. As mentioned earlier, the greenfield BlueOval City plants in Tennessee should be at least a good start for manufacturing Lincoln BEV in a cost effective manner. But if that fails, Ford may still have an opportunity to outsource Lincoln BEV assembly to other companies that it's partnering with nowadays including Rivian, Changan, and VW, or with contract manufacturing firms.

[GrussGott]

On 2/13/2022 at 2:56 PM, rperez817 said:

 

Yes sir GrussGott, that is exactly correct. As mentioned earlier, the greenfield BlueOval City plants in Tennessee should be at least a good start for manufacturing Lincoln BEV in a cost effective manner. But if that fails, Ford may still have an opportunity to outsource Lincoln BEV assembly to other companies that it's partnering with nowadays including Rivian, Changan, and VW, or with contract manufacturing firms.

 

That doesn't seem clear yet as none of those companies have proven to have cost-effective production scale;  VW, as an example, is operating 3x-5x more expensive than the competition and have said they need a new Wolfsburg factory to improve their efficiency, something their board is dragging their feet on.

 

That said, in the case of $100k+ body-on-frame SUVs, those are fairly small numbers, at least historically for Lincoln, so maybe it wouldn't be that big of lift and you're right?

Edited February 15, 2022 by GrussGott

[akirby]

29 minutes ago, GrussGott said:

 

That doesn't seem clear yet as none of those companies have proven to have cost-effective production scale;  VW, as an example, is operating 3x-5x more expensive than the competition and have said they need a new Wolfsburg factory to improve their efficiency, something their board is dragging their feet on.

 

That said, in the case of $100k+ body-on-frame SUVs, those are fairly small numbers, at least historically for Lincoln, so maybe it wouldn't be that big of lift and you're right?

Tesla is vertically integrated and super efficient, yet prior to the pandemic shortages they were still losing money building BEVs, so I don’t see how you can call that cost effective.  No doubt you can streamline production and make it more efficient starting with a clean sheet but traditional automakers know a lot about optimizing costs when building 2 million vehicles per year, something the upstart BEV companies have not experienced yet. 
 

You guys keep forgetting that a lot of these parts are exactly the same - sheet metal, paint, windows, tires, wheels, suspension, carpet, seats, dash, steering, air conditioning, infotainment, etc.

[rperez817]

1 hour ago, GrussGott said:

That said, in the case of $100k+ body-on-frame SUVs, those are fairly small numbers, at least historically for Lincoln, so maybe it wouldn't be that big of lift and you're right?

 

Yes sir GrussGott, that's what I was thinking. The higher price point and lower production volume for Lincoln BEV compared to Ford branded BEV may make outsourcing production feasible for the Lincolns.

 

But the best approach of course is for Ford to develop the new age manufacturing expertise and vertical integration needed to produce BEV economically for both Ford and Lincoln products alike. Jim Farley fortunately is taking this responsibility seriously getting Ford Motor Company out of the "old world" and into the new.

[rperez817]

59 minutes ago, akirby said:

You guys keep forgetting that a lot of these parts are exactly the same - sheet metal, paint, windows, tires, wheels, suspension, carpet, seats, dash, steering, air conditioning, infotainment, etc.

 

Of these items, paint and maybe tires and wheels could be considered exactly the same in terms of assembly for BEV versus ICE vehicles. But the others all present opportunities for BEV to have completely new, more efficient production methods and a much higher level of system integration. For example, Tesla has a patent that incorporates seat mounting onto the structural battery pack for Model Y. 

 

[GrussGott]

5 hours ago, akirby said:

Tesla is vertically integrated and super efficient, yet prior to the pandemic shortages they were still losing money building BEVs, so I don’t see how you can call that cost effective.  No doubt you can streamline production and make it more efficient starting with a clean sheet but traditional automakers know a lot about optimizing costs when building 2 million vehicles per year, something the upstart BEV companies have not experienced yet. 
 

You guys keep forgetting that a lot of these parts are exactly the same - sheet metal, paint, windows, tires, wheels, suspension, carpet, seats, dash, steering, air conditioning, infotainment, etc.

No company in the history of auto making has ever made more margin per vehicle than Tesla is making right now at the scale they're doing it.  In fact, Tesla is nearing software company margins on a manufacturered product; the numbers are crazy.  Their capital leverage is completely bonkers right now and it's only getting better & better literally every month as their costs fall; oh, yeah, Tesla re-configs their lines monthly!

 

And, yes,  per the Q4 balance sheets, Tesla is not only more profitable than Ford or GM - they made more revenue (EBIT)!

 

And, no, none of these parts of the same.

 

I'm not sure how much automotive engineering experience you have, but if it's any, watch a Tesla tear-down compared to a Mach-E or ID.4 or really ANY other BEV; others are using 6' of hose and Tesla uses 6"; other are using 50 feet of wiring and Tesla is using 5 cm.   And then there's the patented sheet metal stamping machines that Tesla custom engineered that basically stamp out 1 car body each cycle ... auto engineering is a game of grams BEFORE BEVs ... after them it's milligrams.

 

For example, if Ford has to stamp out 10 body parts & weld them together over an hour ... while Tesla makes 1 stamp, a few welds, and is done in 10 minutes, then Tesla is 6x more productive than Ford , and you can see how parts ain't parts.

 

Any company that thinks BEV parts are the same as ICE parts is a company about to go bankrupt.

 

And any Tier 1 / 2 parts vendor that believes they'll be selling the same ICE parts for BEVs is also about to go bankrupt ... especially the gas tank makers.

 

Entire supply chains are about to transform.

 

Ford can compete & Farley seems to be the right guy at the right time ... but he also seems like a guy who knows if he fails it's over.

Edited February 15, 2022 by GrussGott

[akirby]

Well the battery pack is the floor of the vehicle, so I’m not sure how attaching seats to the floor is radically different.

 

Tesla raised prices up to $9k - of course they’re hugely profitable right now.  But that wasn’t the case pre Covid so we’ll have to wait and see how that shakes out.  Ford raised prices too but all those $5k-$10k and higher ADMs go to the dealers not Ford.

 

As for those stampings - what does it cost to change them every 3 years or to do 20 different models including trucks as opposed to 4 very generic looking similar vehicles that never change?  And to scale production from 200k to 2M?  Maybe it is a better process but the same process could also be applied to ICE vehicles.  It’s not unique to BEVs at all.

 

Im not going to continue arguing.  We’ll just wait and see how very thing shakes out.

Edited February 15, 2022 by akirby