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Fallacy of Electrics


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I'm assuming the two Drs. who authored this have the credentials  to support a lot of negatives I have read on the frenzied push to electrify. 

Fire Away!

 
 
 

The fallacy of going electric mobiles. Wow an eye opener 

Future of Electric Cars...

Politics The utility companies have thus far had little to say about the alarming cost projections to operate electric vehicles (EVs) or the increased rates that they will be required to charge their customers. It is not just the total amount of electricity required, but the transmission lines and fast charging capacity that must be built at existing filling stations. Neither wind nor solar can support any of it. Electric vehicles will never become the mainstream of transportation!

In part 1 of our exposé on the problems with electric vehicles (EVs), we showed that they were too expensive, too unreliable, rely on materials mined in China and other unfriendly countries, and require more electricity than the nation can afford. In this second part, we address other factors that will make any sensible reader avoid EVs like the plague.

  EV CHARGING INSANITY

in order to match the 2,000 cars that a typical filling station can service in a busy 12 hours, an EV charging station would require 600, 50-watt chargers at an estimated cost of $24 million and a supply of 30 megawatts of power from the grid. That is enough to power 20,000 homes. No one likely thinks about the fact that it can take 30 minutes to 8 hours to recharge a vehicle between empty or just topping off. What are the drivers doing during that time?

ICSC-Canada board member New Zealand-based consulting engineer Bryan Leyland describes why installing electric car charging stations in a city is impractical:

“If you’ve got cars coming into a petrol station, they would stay for an average of five minutes. If you’ve got cars coming into an electric charging station, they would be at least 30 minutes, possibly an hour, but let’s say its 30 minutes. So that’s six times the surface area to park the cars while they’re being charged. So, multiply every petrol station in a city by six. Where are you going to find the place to put them?”

The government of the United Kingdom is already starting to plan for power shortages caused by the charging of thousands of EVs. Starting in June 2022, the government will restrict the time of day you can charge your EV battery. To do this, they will employ smart meters that are programmed to automatically switch off EV charging in peak times to avoid potential blackouts

In particular, the latest UK chargers will be pre-set to not function during 9-hours of peak loads, from 8 am to 11 am (3-hours), and 4 pm to 10 pm (6-hours). Unbelievably, the UK technology decides when and if an EV can be charged, and even allows EV batteries to be drained into the UK grid if required. Imagine charging your car all night only to discover in the morning that your battery is flat since the state took the power back. Better keep your gas-powered car as a reliable and immediately available backup! While EV charging will be an attractive source of revenue generation for the government, American citizens will be up in arms.

USED CAR MARKET

The average used EV will need a new battery before an owner can sell it, pricing them well above used internal combustion cars. The average age of an American car on the road is 12 years. A 12-year-old EV will be on its third battery. A Tesla battery typically costs $10,000 so there will not be many 12-year-old EVs on the road. Good luck trying to sell your used green fairy tale electric car!

Thomas Ketamine, an enterprising Finish Tesla owner, had an imaginative solution to the battery replacement problem—he blew up his car! New York City-based Insider magazine reported (December 27, 2021):

“The shop told him the faulty battery needed to be replaced, at a cost of about $22,000. In addition to the hefty fee, the work would need to be authorized by Tesla

 EVS PER BLOCK IN YOUR NEIGHBORHOOD

A home charging system for a Tesla requires a 75-amp service. The average house is equipped with 100-amp service. On most suburban streets the electrical infrastructure would be unable to carry more than three houses with a single Tesla. For half the homes on your block to have electric vehicles, the system would be wildly overloaded. LONG LIVE THE V-6 or V-8!

BATTERIES

Although the modern lithium-ion battery is four times better than the old lead-acid battery, gasoline holds 80 times the energy density. The great lithium battery in your cell phone weighs less than an ounce while the Tesla battery weighs 1,000 pounds. And what do we get for this huge cost and weight? We get a car that is far less convenient and less useful than cars powered by internal combustion engines. Bryan Leyland explained why:

“When the Model T came out, it was a dramatic improvement on the horse and cart. The electric car is a step backward into the equivalence of an ordinary car with a tiny petrol tank that takes half an hour to fill. It offers nothing in the way of convenience or extra facilities.”

OUR CONCLUSION

The electric automobile will always be around in a niche market likely never exceeding 10% of the cars on the road. All automobile manufacturers are investing in their output and all will be disappointed in their sales. Perhaps they know this and will manufacture just what they know they can sell. This is certainly not what President Biden or California Governor Newsom are planning for. However, for as long as the present government is in power, they will be pushing the electric car as another means to run our lives.

 

Drs. Jay Lehr and Tom Harri

Dr. Jay Lehr is a Senior Policy Analyst with the International Climate Science Coalition and former Science Director of The Heartland Institute. He is an internationally renowned scientist, author, and speaker who has testified before Congress on dozens of occasions on environmental issues and consulted with nearly every agency of the national government and many foreign countries. After graduating from Princeton University at the age of 20 with a degree in Geological Engineering, he received the nation’s first Ph.D. in Groundwater Hydrology from the University of Arizona. He later became executive director of the National Association of Groundwater Scientists and Engineers.

Tom Harris is Executive Director of the Ottawa, Canada-based International Climate Science Coalition, and a policy advisor to The Heartland Institute. He has 40 years of experience as a mechanical engineer/project manager, science and technology communications professional, technical trainer, and S&T advisor to a former Opposition Senior Environment Critic in Canada’s Parliament.

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I don't own an EV, but have plans to purchase one in the future.

1. Charging: most EV's will be charged at home, overnight, during low demand periods, this will help balance the load on the grid and make power generation and distribution more efficient and thus cheaper.  EV's don't need large "fueling" stations because there is no need for hazardous material containment.  Many businesses will install point chargers, distributing the charging load over a larger area, instead of concentrating like petrol stations do.  Also emerging technology with solid state batteries with higher storage densities and faster charging capability will be in production long before critical mass causes any issues.

2. A 12 year old used ICE vehicle is no more reliable than a 12 year old EV.  Used EV's don't require new batteries unless there is a critical failure of the battery system.  They will degrade and lose range over time, but that will factor into residual values and thus the purchase price when new.  Tesla may not fare as well as other OEM's on this as Tesla allows much greater use of the total battery capacity than other OEM's currently do.  Given that, the expected life of a Tesla battery is still something around 300,000 miles before it drops below 80% of new capacity.  Also independent shops are able to diagnose and repair faulty battery packs by replacing individual modules or cells, eventually Tesla will either be sued by class action or by several AG's if they shut down features or capability because someone repaired a battery outside the warranty period.

3. Less convenient is an opinion.  It is not more convenient to have to stand in the cold for 5 minutes while pumping 23 gallons into my tank.  It would be much more convenient to just plug in every night and have a full battery every morning.  Convenience is a matter of lifestyle.

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I don't agree with the part about needing a new battery every time the used car is sold.  That's a bit of a reach.  The charging points are spot on.  I built a new house in 2008.  I put in a 300 amp panel.  But if I put in three charging points in my 3 stall garage, I'll be pushing the limits of the panel.  Possibly the main line to my house.  Not that I'd be charging all three at the same time.  But I like to have a margin of error.

He's not touching on many of the aspects of manufacturing either.  Every believes wind energy is "clean".  Uh yeah, once the tower is up.  But to make the generator, you need rare earth magnets and a ton of copper windings.  You need a massive amount of steel for the towers.  You need a lot of dirty concrete to anchor it.  There is dirty hydraulic fluids in the gear box.  Cooling system for the gearbox.  Some people tend to ignore those dirty facts.

Same goes for the electric car.  Tons of copper for motors, rare earth metals for motor and batteries.  While they like to say that the batteries are recyclable, the reality is there are almost no companies actually do that yet.

I'm sure this could go on ad nauseam, so I'll stop there.

 

One other pet peeve.  I recently saw a Lucid claim about how many parts are in a Lucid car vs. a traditional ICE car.  They counted very nut and bolt on the ICE car.  Every engine part.  But when counting the Lucid car, they count the battery as only 1 part.  Not the thousands of batteries that make up the unit.  Or the battery management components in the battery pack.

 

I'm not a fan of hypocrisy.

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51 minutes ago, Flying68 said:

I don't own an EV, but have plans to purchase one in the future.

1. Charging: most EV's will be charged at home, overnight, during low demand periods, this will help balance the load on the grid and make power generation and distribution more efficient and thus cheaper.  EV's don't need large "fueling" stations because there is no need for hazardous material containment.  Many businesses will install point chargers, distributing the charging load over a larger area, instead of concentrating like petrol stations do.  Also emerging technology with solid state batteries with higher storage densities and faster charging capability will be in production long before critical mass causes any issues.

2. A 12 year old used ICE vehicle is no more reliable than a 12 year old EV.  Used EV's don't require new batteries unless there is a critical failure of the battery system.  They will degrade and lose range over time, but that will factor into residual values and thus the purchase price when new.  Tesla may not fare as well as other OEM's on this as Tesla allows much greater use of the total battery capacity than other OEM's currently do.  Given that, the expected life of a Tesla battery is still something around 300,000 miles before it drops below 80% of new capacity.  Also independent shops are able to diagnose and repair faulty battery packs by replacing individual modules or cells, eventually Tesla will either be sued by class action or by several AG's if they shut down features or capability because someone repaired a battery outside the warranty period.

3. Less convenient is an opinion.  It is not more convenient to have to stand in the cold for 5 minutes while pumping 23 gallons into my tank.  It would be much more convenient to just plug in every night and have a full battery every morning.  Convenience is a matter of lifestyle.

 

I think the charging problems arise on the road and at home when you want or need a higher level charger. Let's say you stop at a Cracker Barrel for lunch and to recharge a low battery. Often a user will plugin and then go to lunch for 45 minutes. Anyone else wanting to use the station will have a long wait. Many times I've seen this problem on You Tube experiences with commercial charging stations. Very maddening.

 

Level 2 chargers are another problem. Many homes need expensive upgrades to accept one. Even auto dealerships have been hit with $250,000 estimates to upgrade to higher level chargingstations. 

 

So I really don't think buying full electric vehicle is about saving money on gas as it will take many years just to break even. It's about emissions only and upscale neighborhoods driving $70,000 BEVs won't change much until commercial trucks go full electric. 

 

In the meantime over next 20 years or so, I would like to see Ford go hybrid across its lineup and full electric with 5-7 models. And still stay with ICE with certain models like Super Duty, Mustang, and the like. Nice mix of hybrid, full electric, and ICE for those that need it as necessity for a variety of reasons. 

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30 minutes ago, FordBuyer said:

 

I think the charging problems arise on the road and at home when you want or need a higher level charger. Let's say you stop at a Cracker Barrel for lunch and to recharge a low battery. Often a user will plugin and then go to lunch for 45 minutes. Anyone else wanting to use the station will have a long wait. Many times I've seen this problem on You Tube experiences with commercial charging stations. Very maddening.

 

Level 2 chargers are another problem. Many homes need expensive upgrades to accept one. Even auto dealerships have been hit with $250,000 estimates to upgrade to higher level chargingstations. 

 

So I really don't think buying full electric vehicle is about saving money on gas as it will take many years just to break even. It's about emissions only and upscale neighborhoods driving $70,000 BEVs won't change much until commercial trucks go full electric. 

 

In the meantime over next 20 years or so, I would like to see Ford go hybrid across its lineup and full electric with 5-7 models. And still stay with ICE with certain models like Super Duty, Mustang, and the like. Nice mix of hybrid, full electric, and ICE for those that need it as necessity for a variety of reasons. 

agreed..I too believe hybrids and Plug in hybrids are truly a superior overall answer than pure electric....but don't count out ICE yet...synthetic gas is being investigated, and didn't Ford just patent a completely clean fuel variant that ICE can utilize...?

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29 minutes ago, Deanh said:

...synthetic gas is being investigated, and didn't Ford just patent a completely clean fuel variant that ICE can utilize...?

 

Somebody (Volkswagon?) was researching making carbon-free gas.  Now that would be a game changer.

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19 minutes ago, mackinaw said:

 

Somebody (Volkswagon?) was researching making carbon-free gas.  Now that would be a game changer.

 

It's Porsche as they are NOT abandoning ICE. Doge is talking about doing a high performance Hydra model that will sound like and be a  combustion engine, but run on hydrogen. Mustang, Dodge, Porsche 911, Corvette, and so on are known for their engine notes as much as their performance and will always have a niche. Ditto for goose neck Super Duties pulling a few horses. 

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Like everything else, neither extreme is realistic.  The current generation of BEVs only support a subset of buyers based on price, vehicle type and charging infrastructure.  Charging and environmental issues are real but can probably be overcome in time.  New batteries and new ice fuels will change the game significantly over the next decade.

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32 minutes ago, akirby said:

Like everything else, neither extreme is realistic.  The current generation of BEVs only support a subset of buyers based on price, vehicle type and charging infrastructure.  Charging and environmental issues are real but can probably be overcome in time.  New batteries and new ice fuels will change the game significantly over the next decade.

Quite right. Having worked in vehicle assembly, each company has only so many experienced people to launch a new model platform and powertrain. Electrification can be done. How fast can this be done? Changing to renewable electricity also an interesting proposition with much recharging to be done at night. 

Also as supply chain is relevant these days, these BEVs require more electronics. It is taking time to sort out our existing ICE electrical supplies. Then on top of all that, many European manufacturers source their wiring harnesses from Ukraine. All of this is solvable. Just how fast can you do it in a fiscally, and environmentally responsible fashion.

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With all of the billions and billions of dollars these governments and companies are investing I don’t think electrification will fail. These governments are mandating new emissions regulations and the technology will continue to improve. I also believe that this is gonna be a pretty long process and I personally believe ICE will be around for quite some time.  Charging time will get faster as time goes on and the infrastructure will have to vastly improve as we all know. 

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21 minutes ago, GearheadGrrrl said:

The article comes from the "Heartland Institute", a conservative pro-oil advocacy group... Definitely not an unbiased opinion!

 

Good point. Those groups also hate mass transit, especially rail unless it's hauling freight. I'm sure the fossil fuel industry hates all electrified vehicles, but you can't stop change/progress. Many have tried to stop progress for centuries, but all ultimately failed. 

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I fully expect ICE vehicles to be taxed off the road in the coming years. At this point the government is behind it and wants to see "electric transportation" viable. Interesting reading abounds how Germany committed to it. Google is your friend if you want to read about it.

Edited by CKNSLS
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I remember a survey of Chevrolet Volt owners showing that most used the electric range almost exclusively from week to week until the onboard system forced the use of gasoline in the tank before it went stale. So my thoughts would be that a PHEV  with about 40-50 mile electric range with a modest ICE might be a solution for EV buyers putting a toe in the water and not wanting to rely on public chargers.

 

Besides that, the $30k entry price for a fuel efficient hybrid Maverick is hard to ignore…..

Edited by jpd80
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I read a story about using Ammonia as a replacement for gasoline which sounded strange until the the molecule was explained, a single nitrogen with four hydrogen atoms bonded to it. When combusted, no carbon emissions are produced.

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1 hour ago, jpd80 said:

I read a story about using Ammonia as a replacement for gasoline which sounded strange until the the molecule was explained, a single nitrogen with four hydrogen atoms bonded to it. When combusted, no carbon emissions are produced.

That may end the catch can debate if that happens lol. 

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I tend to pull back from the debate about electrics coming in fast but I do agree that more people are now buying them. I was just thinking about all the homes that have to add a home charger and any additional wiring required. I wonder if you could use your BEVs battery to power your house during the evening peak and then switch to recharging when off peak starts in the evening…

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