Fallacy of Electrics

[jeff_h]

10 hours ago, Flying68 said:

I don't own an EV, but have plans to purchase one in the future.

1. Charging: most EV's will be charged at home, overnight, during low demand periods, this will help balance the load on the grid and make power generation and distribution more efficient and thus cheaper.  EV's don't need large "fueling" stations because there is no need for hazardous material containment.  Many businesses will install point chargers, distributing the charging load over a larger area, instead of concentrating like petrol stations do.  Also emerging technology with solid state batteries with higher storage densities and faster charging capability will be in production long before critical mass causes any issues.

2. A 12 year old used ICE vehicle is no more reliable than a 12 year old EV.  Used EV's don't require new batteries unless there is a critical failure of the battery system.  They will degrade and lose range over time, but that will factor into residual values and thus the purchase price when new.  Tesla may not fare as well as other OEM's on this as Tesla allows much greater use of the total battery capacity than other OEM's currently do.  Given that, the expected life of a Tesla battery is still something around 300,000 miles before it drops below 80% of new capacity.  Also independent shops are able to diagnose and repair faulty battery packs by replacing individual modules or cells, eventually Tesla will either be sued by class action or by several AG's if they shut down features or capability because someone repaired a battery outside the warranty period.

3. Less convenient is an opinion.  It is not more convenient to have to stand in the cold for 5 minutes while pumping 23 gallons into my tank.  It would be much more convenient to just plug in every night and have a full battery every morning.  Convenience is a matter of lifestyle.

 

I agree with the above, I think the author of the article is full of crap on most of his claims.

 

Our first plug-in was my wife's 2013 Fusion Energi, then I also got one so we had his-n-hers for a couple years, then I moved to a Volt, then Bolt, now Kia Niro.  Our (mostly mine since I have a long commute) total miles among those since 2013 is about 430k miles total among those cars. 210k of those are in pure EV which is a lot of skipped oil changes and the only maintenance I do is replace tires at the same rate as an ICE car (just replaced them a few weeks ago and got 75k on the OEM set).

 

The PP above is right, most EV owners charge at home at night with a L2 charger (and the author is full of it, a Tesla can charge on a L2 charger as well and do NOT need a 75A charger at home) and only need to stop at the high speed chargers on rare occasions.  If you live in an apartment building or would otherwise have to rely on using the high speed chargers on a routine basis, personally I think you're nuts to have an EV as your only method of transportation.  IMHO the best mix for a 2-vehicle household is an EV for one and an ICE or PHEV for the other so when it's time to take a long trip then you leave the EV at home.

 

Probably the most common question of those who have never had an EV is "well don't ya have to replace the battery every few years?" because everyone's done that every few years in their ICE for forever so it's the mindset, but like the PP above stated it's only needed if there's some failure of some type.  As long as the High Voltage Battery (HVB) is liquid cooled (we loved our Fusion Energis but the HVBs were air cooled and the heat killed their capacity over a few years, like with the earlier Nissan Leaf models) then that battery should last for many years.

 

And on reliability, I think the author is also full of it there, at least from my own experience.  Of all the miles we've driven the biggest EV-related problem we encountered was the HVB cooling fan went out on my Fusion Energi and was replaced under warranty and out of the shop 2 days later... so ours have been very very reliable.

 

EVs are definitely not for everyone but for those who have purchased them most are very satisfied and this AAA survey said 96% of EV owners would buy/lease another the next time they need another vehicle (https://magazine.northeast.aaa.com/daily/life/cars-trucks/electric-vehicles/buying-electric-cars/) which is a pretty high rate and if an EV was such a PITA the rate would be far lower.

 

[slemke]

8 hours ago, Oacjay98 said:

With all of the billions and billions of dollars these governments and companies are investing I don’t think electrification will fail. These governments are mandating new emissions regulations and the technology will continue to improve. I also believe that this is gonna be a pretty long process and I personally believe ICE will be around for quite some time.  Charging time will get faster as time goes on and the infrastructure will have to vastly improve as we all know. 

Or we end up in a Cuba like situation where people keep their ice vehicles forever and don’t make the switch.  Mandating a solution that doesn’t work for an individual won’t get them to adopt.

[Footballfan]

Rarely is this an all-or-nothing world.  The sweet spot for the market for EVs is probably in the middle of the most optimistic and most pessimistic forecasts.  So at this time, we probably can expect a solid 20-25 percent market share for EVs by 2030.  I think that GM and Ford were banking- and still are- on Biden's promises of 500K charging stations- of course at the taxpayer expense. Build Back Better is dead, and they will be lucky to get a third of that number. Lack of high-speed and plentiful charging stations will be the bottleneck for full-scale acceptance of EVs.

 

That being said, I have seen things overhyped in this industry.  If it were 40 years ago, we would be talking about the phase out of V-8 engines and RWD passenger cars, $3 (in 1982 dollars) a gallon gas, and the death of all but the largest of pickups. The Taurus was supposed to be the full-sized car for the 1980s.  The Ranger was supposed to replace the F-Series as the volume pickup.  If it were 15 years ago, we would be talking again about the pickup trucks having reached peak sales, the Focus being the new standard passenger car. 

 

If there is one thing that we can all agree on is that politicians are stupid when it comes to managing anything businesswise.  The only thing they know about vehicles is how to fill the tank if they can even do that themselves.  They are in no position to dictate what people will drive yet they do so and some of the "woke" car companies like gm and Ford are happy to capitulate. 

 

I personally think that EVs are somewhat of a bubble and the overcapacity that we saw in the early 2000s for gasoline vehicles  is happening today with battery and EV plants.  There is a great likelihood that some of these proposed megaprojects for EVs and battery plants will be stopped in their tracks when the companies realize that the market for EVs is not as broad as they think.  If there is one thing the car companies should have learned over the years is that you cannot shove products and services that folks do not want down their throats.

[Footballfan]

13 hours ago, FordBuyer said:

 

I think the charging problems arise on the road and at home when you want or need a higher level charger. Let's say you stop at a Cracker Barrel for lunch and to recharge a low battery. Often a user will plugin and then go to lunch for 45 minutes. Anyone else wanting to use the station will have a long wait. Many times I've seen this problem on You Tube experiences with commercial charging stations. Very maddening.

 

Level 2 chargers are another problem. Many homes need expensive upgrades to accept one. Even auto dealerships have been hit with $250,000 estimates to upgrade to higher level chargingstations. 

 

So I really don't think buying full electric vehicle is about saving money on gas as it will take many years just to break even. It's about emissions only and upscale neighborhoods driving $70,000 BEVs won't change much until commercial trucks go full electric. 

 

In the meantime over next 20 years or so, I would like to see Ford go hybrid across its lineup and full electric with 5-7 models. And still stay with ICE with certain models like Super Duty, Mustang, and the like. Nice mix of hybrid, full electric, and ICE for those that need it as necessity for a variety of reasons. 

Can you imagine the fights that will break out over who had the next turn at the EV station?

[Footballfan]

13 hours ago, Deanh said:

agreed..I too believe hybrids and Plug in hybrids are truly a superior overall answer than pure electric....but don't count out ICE yet...synthetic gas is being investigated, and didn't Ford just patent a completely clean fuel variant that ICE can utilize...?

Unfortunately, companies lack common sense.  Instead of spending millions to research and perfect carbon capture and synthetic fuels that could be used on existing vehicles as well, they are spending billions on a technology a good deal of the population is not ready for or wants.

[Footballfan]

14 hours ago, Flying68 said:

I don't own an EV, but have plans to purchase one in the future.

1. Charging: most EV's will be charged at home, overnight, during low demand periods, this will help balance the load on the grid and make power generation and distribution more efficient and thus cheaper.  EV's don't need large "fueling" stations because there is no need for hazardous material containment.  Many businesses will install point chargers, distributing the charging load over a larger area, instead of concentrating like petrol stations do.  Also emerging technology with solid state batteries with higher storage densities and faster charging capability will be in production long before critical mass causes any issues.

2. A 12 year old used ICE vehicle is no more reliable than a 12 year old EV.  Used EV's don't require new batteries unless there is a critical failure of the battery system.  They will degrade and lose range over time, but that will factor into residual values and thus the purchase price when new.  Tesla may not fare as well as other OEM's on this as Tesla allows much greater use of the total battery capacity than other OEM's currently do.  Given that, the expected life of a Tesla battery is still something around 300,000 miles before it drops below 80% of new capacity.  Also independent shops are able to diagnose and repair faulty battery packs by replacing individual modules or cells, eventually Tesla will either be sued by class action or by several AG's if they shut down features or capability because someone repaired a battery outside the warranty period.

3. Less convenient is an opinion.  It is not more convenient to have to stand in the cold for 5 minutes while pumping 23 gallons into my tank.  It would be much more convenient to just plug in every night and have a full battery every morning.  Convenience is a matter of lifestyle.

It will not be convenient if you are on the road and have to recharge and spend 45 minutes freezing in your car waiting for the battery to recharge to capture a 100 miles or so of range.

[Footballfan]

9 hours ago, CKNSLS said:

I fully expect ICE vehicles to be taxed off the road in the coming years. At this point the government is behind it and wants to see "electric transportation" viable. Interesting reading abounds how Germany committed to it. Google is your friend if you want to read about it.

Good luck being reelected if you are the idiot politician that tries this.  

[Forddaddy]

It’s not about carbon emissions. We have a heavy reliance on fossil fuels for electricity generation in the US and the mining of rare earth minerals for the components in EVs isn’t the most environmentally friendly process. Until we have efficient, reliable and consistent renewable energy, I don’t think it make sense for electric to be our prodomient transportation source.

 

Hybrids bridge the gap until infrastructure, battery tech and renewables are in place. 

[jflottawa]

5 hours ago, Footballfan said:

It will not be convenient if you are on the road and have to recharge and spend 45 minutes freezing in your car waiting for the battery to recharge to capture a 100 miles or so of range.

 

I strongly considered a Lightning but it could likely only be used as a car (not towing anything significant) - so even with a small camper, you'ld likely be hitting up a charging station frequently on a long trip.

I plan my trip around my kids' pee breaks, not my vehicle's range ?

Edited April 8, 2022 by jflottawa

[twintornados]

5 hours ago, Forddaddy said:

It’s not about carbon emissions. We have a heavy reliance on fossil fuels for electricity generation in the US and the mining of rare earth minerals for the components in EVs isn’t the most environmentally friendly process. Until we have efficient, reliable and consistent renewable energy, I don’t think it make sense for electric to be our predominant transportation source.

 

Hybrids bridge the gap until infrastructure, battery tech and renewables are in place. 

 

I don't think you realize just how "environmentally un-friendly" it is extracting the fossil fuels from the ground as well....While I can agree that hybrids are the stepping stone to an EV future, it isn't all buttercups and rainbows in the fossil fuel industry either.

[jpd80]

There’s some guys in Australia repowering tractor trailers with Lithium Ion batteries set up as quick change. On a full charge the B Doubles can run about five hours and then they use a forklift to change the battery pack through the front of the truck. The changeover takes five minutes, refuelling with a diesel truck takes much longer. The energy costs versus diesel is about a third…..

 

I could see something like that working in America…..

[fuzzymoomoo]

20 hours ago, Deanh said:

agreed..I too believe hybrids and Plug in hybrids are truly a superior overall answer than pure electric....but don't count out ICE yet...synthetic gas is being investigated, and didn't Ford just patent a completely clean fuel variant that ICE can utilize...?

On that note, can Ford dig up some of that research Henry Ford was doing into hemp based fuels?

[twintornados]

1 hour ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

...On that note, can Ford dig up some of that research Henry Ford was doing into hemp based fuels?

 

Quote

“Why use up the forests, which were centuries in the making, and the mines, which required ages to lay down, if we can get the equivalent of forest and mineral products in the annual growth of the hemp fields?” ~ Henry Ford

 

https://themeaningofwater.com/2020/10/03/henry-fords-hemp-cars/

[NLPRacing]

21 hours ago, GearheadGrrrl said:

The article comes from the "Heartland Institute", a conservative pro-oil advocacy group... Definitely not an unbiased opinion!

 

Most of the vehement disdain propaganda against electric cars comes from groups that are heavily influenced by oil & gas companies. I wonder why that is? History will look at these types of articles the same way tobacco companies used to advertise the health benefits of smoking.

 

I will often drive 300+ miles at a time for work making an electric vehicle a bit more of a challenge for me, but it would still be doable. I would just have to plan my trips around charging while eating meals and at hotels. But for many people, like my wife, kids, my employees, etc. Could easily live with an electric car. As long as you plug in every night you don't even need a fancy charger. My brother-in-law had a Tesla Model S and then a Model 3 that he used for years for commuting and would just plug into a 120V outlet at home at night and would use superchargers while traveling. Never had a problem. 

Edited April 8, 2022 by NLPRacing
Grammar

[Deanh]

disdain propaganda?...No offence but that's a two way coin...can anyone please explain exactly how Electric cars are better for the environment ? CONVINCINGLY????...don't forget to include deforestation with possible consequent animal extinction, envioronmentally beautiful strip mining ( no doubt assisted by diesel belching CATs ) TRUCKING of said required minerals to Ports where they are SHIPPED by APEX polluters to destinations now dependent AGAIN of foreign supply. I get the whole emission free debate...but lets look at the BIG picture...Carbon Footprint...say what you will about ICE, but electric cars , and their power sources are unproven entities that will eventually be burdened ( if not already )by a different and arguably worse set of lasting problems detrimental to the very issue they claim to be addressing....its all smoke and mirrors, and dare I say HIGHLY profitable to those pushing the agenda...I don't buy into it for one second...Im warming to them, but they most definitely are NOT the answer to the Planets issues that some here infer...

[Deanh]

4 hours ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

On that note, can Ford dig up some of that research Henry Ford was doing into hemp based fuels?

lol...people getting stoned from tail pipe fumes...funny....

[FordBuyer]

11 hours ago, Forddaddy said:

It’s not about carbon emissions. We have a heavy reliance on fossil fuels for electricity generation in the US and the mining of rare earth minerals for the components in EVs isn’t the most environmentally friendly process. Until we have efficient, reliable and consistent renewable energy, I don’t think it make sense for electric to be our prodomient transportation source.

 

Hybrids bridge the gap until infrastructure, battery tech and renewables are in place. 

 

Article out today in Detroit News that NASA and Nissan are teaming to produce solid state batteries that weigh 50% less than lithium, full charge in 15 minutes, and need no exotic materials. Pilot production to start in 2024 and full production for BEVs in 2028. So looks like truly viable, affordable BEVs are at least 4-6 years away. Meantime, hybrids galore out there, especially from Toyota, Kia/Hyundsi, Ford, and Honda. 

[NLPRacing]

1 hour ago, Deanh said:

disdain propaganda?...No offence but that's a two way coin...can anyone please explain exactly how Electric cars are better for the environment ? CONVINCINGLY????...don't forget to include deforestation with possible consequent animal extinction, envioronmentally beautiful strip mining ( no doubt assisted by diesel belching CATs ) TRUCKING of said required minerals to Ports where they are SHIPPED by APEX polluters to destinations now dependent AGAIN of foreign supply. I get the whole emission free debate...but lets look at the BIG picture...Carbon Footprint...say what you will about ICE, but electric cars , and their power sources are unproven entities that will eventually be burdened ( if not already )by a different and arguably worse set of lasting problems detrimental to the very issue they claim to be addressing....its all smoke and mirrors, and dare I say HIGHLY profitable to those pushing the agenda...I don't buy into it for one second...Im warming to them, but they most definitely are NOT the answer to the Planets issues that some here infer...

 

25 minutes ago, FordBuyer said:

 

Article out today in Detroit News that NASA and Nissan are teaming to produce solid state batteries that weigh 50% less than lithium, full charge in 15 minutes, and need no exotic materials. Pilot production to start in 2024 and full production for BEVs in 2028. So looks like truly viable, affordable BEVs are at least 4-6 years away. Meantime, hybrids galore out there, especially from Toyota, Kia/Hyundsi, Ford, and Honda. 

 

There you go Dean. Lithium mining is not good, but neither are oil sands, leaky pipelines, oil tanker spills, drilling rig explosions, etc.

[BarneyFord]

1 hour ago, NLPRacing said:

 

 

There you go Dean. Lithium mining is not good, but neither are oil sands, leaky pipelines, oil tanker spills, drilling rig explosions, etc.

The smell of raw oil, on the sea water, on the beach and at your home sticks with you. 

[Deanh]

1 hour ago, NLPRacing said:

 

 

There you go Dean. Lithium mining is not good, but neither are oil sands, leaky pipelines, oil tanker spills, drilling rig explosions, etc.

Ill believe it when I see it...but preaching that electricity is better for the environment is fundamentally flawed to say the least AND its future environmental signature is absolute guesswork and speculation...

[Deanh]

1 hour ago, NLPRacing said:

 

 

There you go Dean. Lithium mining is not good, but neither are oil sands, leaky pipelines, oil tanker spills, drilling rig explosions, etc.

ironic the tanker that burst into flames they were unable to put out due to BEV lithium battery fires ...lol...and lest we forget...plastic is a petroleum based product no?...is it not utilized in Electric cars? That said...dont dis-agree with any of your points in the slightest, although in the big picture, those calamities are a somewhat rare occurrence...still doesn't answer my question ( at least currently, to which the silence from some here is very telling )  ...lots of bullshit promises the naïve buy into...someone is making absolute bank on far fetched "propaganda"...and the deflection is unreal...

Edited April 8, 2022 by Deanh

[Deanh]

34 minutes ago, BarneyFord said:

The smell of raw oil, on the sea water, on the beach and at your home sticks with you. 

that happen to you often?...and no, its not a good thing in the slightest, but a relatively rare occurrence that can be addressed somewhat when it happens...I feel for the wildlife that suffers...some thankfully can be saved...possible extinction from being forced out of ones habitat cannot....where exactly DO the Environmentalists that lobby for Electrification disappear too at the mention of how the necessary minerals are obtained? Are they at a save a Smelt Fund raiser at the Huntington Beach Wetlands  Town Hall Meeting?....you know, the one with the parking lot full of Teslas?....lol...

[danglin]

I am not against electric vehicles, but the reality will be will be simply switching from one problem to another.  Energy is a "dirty" business! 

 

Both ICE and Electric can be made more efficient.  Let the market determine what is viable.  The government should not be forcing the change or

subsidizing any of it!

Edited April 8, 2022 by danglin

[Deanh]

22 minutes ago, danglin said:

I am not against electric vehicles, but the reality will be will be simply switching from one problem to another.  Energy is a "dirty" business! 

 

Both ICE and Electric can be made more efficient.  Let the market determine what is viable.  The government should not be forcing the change or

subsidizing any of it!

perfect synopsis of my long winded rant...more bloody mandates...damn control freaks...and for no ones benefit but their own...the complete and utter lack of foresight routinely gets overlooked with forced change, and made worse by NOT being in a gradual manner...your force something upon people in a knee jerk manner theres absolutely going to be unforeseen consequences through complete and utter lack of preparation ( sound familiar? ) ...mark my words....to re visit this in 5 years will be absolutely fascinating. In the meantime I'll patiently wait for my stick shift 2 dr Badlands...and enjoy the crap out of it. I for one, not ready to jump on another "flavor of the month" bandwagon...well not yet anyways, I need a LOT more convincing, and he so called " Green agenda " can react to my middle finger regarding  their good for the environment narrative... 

[Forddaddy]

9 hours ago, twintornados said:

 

I don't think you realize just how "environmentally un-friendly" it is extracting the fossil fuels from the ground as well....While I can agree that hybrids are the stepping stone to an EV future, it isn't all buttercups and rainbows in the fossil fuel industry either.

Of course they’re not. I am saying we have to extract fossil fuels and burn those for electricity that’s used in EVs. There are fossil fuels that burn cleaner and have a more earth friendly extraction than petroleum, but the principle remains. On top of the dirty fossil fuel extraction, we’re extracting rare earth metals in what you might call less than clean processes, so we’re doubling down on unfriendly extraction to build a vehicle that’s better for the environment????? I think that encapsulates the fallacy of current selling point for EVs. What drives me crazy about EV owners is they think they’re saving the earth by not producing direct carbon out the tailpipe, when the majority of the electricity used in their cars is produced from burning carbon emitting fossil fuels. An exception would be those who have solar on their homes for a net zero draw from the grid. Again, until we have better battery tech, improved infrastructure and true renewable energy that supports the upgraded infrastructure, EVs are a dream for a total replacement of ICE vehicles or in your words, a fantasy of buttercups and rainbows. Like with all things, it will come with time, but I’m not on board for the policial strong arming to “save the earth” in a short few years. 

Edited April 8, 2022 by Forddaddy