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18 minutes ago, rmc523 said:


that seems to be the goal.

 

and maybe with the switch to EVs, they’ll go with more modern/more readily available chips vs the old ones

Absolutely, lower ICE production and sales but a more profitable sales mix. Ford will use this to reinforce higher BEV sales goals.

 

All those compact Tesla sales have to be hurting someone’s figures, they just don’t know it yet…..

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21 minutes ago, jasonj80 said:


They do know one big one, the Toyota Prius. 

I’m also wondering if the German luxury brands are also being impacted even though I don’t consider Tesla luxury products, they are kind of the archetypal electric vehicles of choice by many buyers.

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33 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

I’m also wondering if the German luxury brands are also being impacted even though I don’t consider Tesla luxury products, they are kind of the archetypal electric vehicles of choice by many buyers.


I remember early on there were reports of many luxury brand owners switching.

i don’t think I feel like digging up all those numbers back to model 3’s intro though.  Maybe had I done it then and kept a running tally…

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21 minutes ago, rmc523 said:


I remember early on there were reports of many luxury brand owners switching.

i don’t think I feel like digging up all those numbers back to model 3’s intro though.  Maybe had I done it then and kept a running tally…

 

I want to say 3 series and C class were the luxury cars that were most impacted.

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On 6/8/2022 at 4:48 PM, jcartwright99 said:

 

I want to say 3 series and C class were the luxury cars that were most impacted.

Around here, the model 3 Tesla has replaced the BMW 3 series.  Lots of Teslas, not many 3 series sedans.  C class never seemed to be very popular.

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3 hours ago, slemke said:

Around here, the model 3 Tesla has replaced the BMW 3 series.  Lots of Teslas, not many 3 series sedans.  C class never seemed to be very popular.

This is what I’m thinking and in Europe, BMW, MB and Audi are seen as premium brands that also cover luxury at the top. I think they’re ripe picking for Tesla, especially buyer who want a BEV but also something they see as new or special. Tesla could be stealing those brands’ sales right in front of them, years before they are ready to gear up and chase….I think Musk is enjoying this, two compact vehicles that are building so much global business

Edited by jpd80
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Tesla 3 outsold the Big 3 Germans sedans in both US and Europe. Especially in Europe... outsold is not the right word. Decimated is more appropriate. I will also accept obliviated, massacred, or nuked.

 

The numbers in Europe looks closer if you by nameplate for the Germans because majority of sales in this segment is actually wagons and Tesla doesn't have one to compete properly. But looking at sedan only, Tesla is the best selling premium D-segment sedan right now in both sides of Atlantic and it's not even close. 

Screenshot 2022-06-10 174802.png

 

Tesla is leaving a lot of money on the table for not making a Model 3 wagon.

Screenshot 2022-06-10 175211.png\

 

The best selling D-hatchback is also an EV. Tesla would have cleaned up here if they had bothered with a Model 3 hatch. 

Screenshot 2022-06-10 175308.png

 

Globally, the sedan number looks a bit better for the Germans because China is still a big market for the Big 3 German sedan but Tesla 3 is still beating them comfortably.

Screenshot 2022-06-10 180559.png

 

The take away if it is not completely obvious by now is that luxury car market is so severely impacted by the rise of Tesla that caught everyone asleep at the wheels. Demand for EV is so strong that all the traditional car companies basically misjudged consumer sentiments. I bet all of them would love to have a do-over for the last model cycle - instead of cynically laugh at Tesla, they all wished they started working on their BEV 5 years earlier. You can see the same kind of head in the sand denial in this message board too about the inevitable collapse of ICE sales in other segments too. It's just a matter of time that all the sales chart will look like this. It is an existential crisis mode for traditional car companies that doesn't have a full line up of EV ready to launch.  

Edited by bzcat
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56 minutes ago, bzcat said:

Tesla 3 outsold the Big 3 Germans sedans in both US and Europe. Especially in Europe... outsold is not the right word. Decimated is more appropriate. I will also accept obliviated, massacred, or nuked.

 

The numbers in Europe looks closer if you by nameplate for the Germans because majority of sales in this segment is actually wagons and Tesla doesn't have one to compete properly. But looking at sedan only, Tesla is the best selling premium D-segment sedan right now in both sides of Atlantic and it's not even close. 

 

 

 

Globally, the sedan number looks a bit better for the Germans because China is still a big market for the Big 3 German sedan but Tesla 3 is still beating them comfortably.

 

I just saw USA registration figures for first four months of 2022, Tesla over 139,300 vehicles, there’s daylight back to the Germans. It’s what some of us have suspected for a while, Tesla is going after different buyers to GM and Ford, they will take some compact sales from Ford and GM but the truck and larger utilities are safe for now…..

 

Any brand relying on compact car/utility sales  is gonna get their business smacked hard,

Tesla on track for $4 billion ebit in USA alone..

 

I actually hope that Tesla cleans up with just the 3 and the Y, maybe realise that is perfect for their purposes and to not worry too much about other less  voluminous sales. Cybertruck is grandiose but I wonder if it really makes financial sense when Tesla is making such a killing /easy sales of 3 and Y.

Only come for Ford and GM after they are earning $20 billion profit a year from other sales….

I think Tesla will put VW and other Euro brands in their graves long before that, LOL happening now/ frog in a pot..

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26 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

I just saw USA registration figures for first four months of 2022, Tesla over 139,300 vehicles, there’s daylight back to the Germans. It wat some of us have suspected for a while, Tesla is going after buyers to GM and Ford, they will take some compact sales but the truck and larger utilities are safe for now…..I actually hope that Tesla cleans up with just the 3 and the Y, maybe realise that is perfect for their purposes and to not worry too much about other less  voluminous sales.

 

Tesla would have really aced Ford and GM if Cybertruck wasn't such an ignorant project. That will go down as probably the biggest missed opportunity in automotive industry this century.

 

Tesla 2 (or whatever the compact will be called) will eat Audi A3, Mercedes A-Class, and BMW 1-Series for lunch. The Germans know it. They are lucky that Tesla actually can't expand as fast as it wants... Model S is 10 years old now so that is giving the Germans a chance to jump back in with better products in the E-segment. Porsche Taycan is outselling Model S now. The upcoming Audi A6 Etron should be interesting. It will be the first Audi EV wagon - attacking Tesla where it is the weakest (and where Audi is the strongest).

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, bzcat said:

 

Tesla would have really aced Ford and GM if Cybertruck wasn't such an ignorant project. That will go down as probably the biggest missed opportunity in automotive industry this century.

 

Tesla 2 (or whatever the compact will be called) will eat Audi A3, Mercedes A-Class, and BMW 1-Series for lunch. The Germans know it. They are lucky that Tesla actually can't expand as fast as it wants... Model S is 10 years old now so that is giving the Germans a chance to jump back in with better products in the E-segment. Porsche Taycan is outselling Model S now. The upcoming Audi A6 Etron should be interesting. It will be the first Audi EV wagon - attacking Tesla where it is the weakest (and where Audi is the strongest).

 

I doubt that Tesla will do a subcompact anytime soon, the price wouldn’t be conducive to profits compared to the 3 and Y. Tesla S and X are about 1.8 times the price of the more popular 3 and Y, blind Freddie can see that a mid sized 4 and Z at around $10k above the compacts would smash those segments, possibly bankrupt many Euro and Asian brands… I actually hope that Tesla sees this opportunity to stretch the 3 and Y designs to complete their victory rather than going smaller…

 

I don’t know what to make of the Cybertruck, it’s a wow impact product but wonder if it’s a king sized fad vehicle that folks will grow tired of in real world situations, gotta get it built before that and I think that’s where GM and Ford have a real opportunity to gazump Tesla with offering high volume BEV trucks while Tesla tells buyers to wait five years…

 

The way I see the future,

1. Chinese BEV brands replaces Japan and Korean brands as affordable vehicles

 

2. Tesla steal compact and mid sized sales from many global Euro and Asian brands

 

3. Ford and GM dominate Truck and larger Utility BEV sales 

 

4. Euro and Japanese/Korean  brands are decimated by Tesla and Chinese brands, they either become smaller, less significant boutique brands or bankrupt.

 

 

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On 6/10/2022 at 9:13 PM, bzcat said:

Tesla would have really aced Ford and GM if Cybertruck wasn't such an ignorant project. That will go down as probably the biggest missed opportunity in automotive industry this century.

 

That's correct bzcat, Tesla's delay with Cybertruck production enhanced the "first mover advantage" that Ford, GM, and Rivian now have with the respective BEV pickup trucks (F-150 Lightning, Hummer EV truck, and R1T). Remains to be seen if Tesla is able to catch up after Cybertruck start of production.

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3 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

That's correct bzcat, Tesla's delay with Cybertruck production enhanced the "first mover advantage" that Ford, GM, and Rivian now have with the respective BEV pickup trucks (F-150 Lightning, Hummer EV truck, and R1T). Remains to be seen if Tesla is able to catch up after Cybertruck start of production.


The entire truck is stupid regardless of timing.

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39 minutes ago, akirby said:

The entire truck is stupid regardless of timing.

 

Cybertruck concept is excellent (it won Automobile Magazine's Concept Car of the Year award in 2019), but repeated delays getting the vehicle into production represents Tesla's biggest failure as a business. "Mind share" for BEV pickup trucks now favors Ford, GM, and Rivian as all of those companies are currently producing them.

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On 6/9/2022 at 6:01 AM, rmc523 said:


that seems to be the goal.

 

and maybe with the switch to EVs, they’ll go with more modern/more readily available chips vs the old ones

Correct. Part of that plan would also involve reducing the price gap between ICE vehicles and their replacement BEVs. Like many, I thought that would entail the long road of reducing BEV cost to Mach ICE but it seems manufacturers have found a way to make us all pay more for all of their vehicles, not just BEVs….

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3 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

Cybertruck concept is excellent (it won Automobile Magazine's Concept Car of the Year award in 2019), but repeated delays getting the vehicle into production represents Tesla's biggest failure as a business. "Mind share" for BEV pickup trucks now favors Ford, GM, and Rivian as all of those companies are currently producing them.

 

As a truck owner, I suggest it was clearly rated by people that have never used trucks for real towing, or work.

 

I read that they plan to increase the tow rating to 14,000 lb. Sure, it may have sufficient power, but is it big and sturdy enough to handle that much weight. From photos, I say not even close.

 

We have towed 16,000 lbs with a F-350 SRW and it was right on the limits of being stable. The F-350 DRW and now F-450 are way more stable. The Tesla wouldn't survive, especially in any sort of wind.

 

I would like to watch one going into the gravel yard and getting a ton of gravel, or dirt dropped into the back. My truck easily handles 2-tons, but with the Tesla, I just can't imagine a front-end loader dropping anything into them.

 

May have won concept car of the year, but it certainly wasn't for what trucks are built for - work.

 

 

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On 6/10/2022 at 6:22 PM, jpd80 said:

I doubt that Tesla will do a subcompact anytime soon, the price wouldn’t be conducive to profits compared to the 3 and Y. Tesla S and X are about 1.8 times the price of the more popular 3 and Y, blind Freddie can see that a mid sized 4 and Z at around $10k above the compacts would smash those segments, possibly bankrupt many Euro and Asian brands… I actually hope that Tesla sees this opportunity to stretch the 3 and Y designs to complete their victory rather than going smaller…

 

I don’t know what to make of the Cybertruck, it’s a wow impact product but wonder if it’s a king sized fad vehicle that folks will grow tired of in real world situations, gotta get it built before that and I think that’s where GM and Ford have a real opportunity to gazump Tesla with offering high volume BEV trucks while Tesla tells buyers to wait five years…

 

The way I see the future,

1. Chinese BEV brands replaces Japan and Korean brands as affordable vehicles

 

2. Tesla steal compact and mid sized sales from many global Euro and Asian brands

 

3. Ford and GM dominate Truck and larger Utility BEV sales 

 

4. Euro and Japanese/Korean  brands are decimated by Tesla and Chinese brands, they either become smaller, less significant boutique brands or bankrupt.

 

 

 

Hyundai and Toyota are not going anywhere, especially in markets like Australia where they dominate.

 

These are the legacy players - and by that I mean car companies that sell ICE and is big enough to be around in the next few years:

  • Europe is down to 5 car companies: Daimler, VW, BMW, Renault, and Stellantis
  • Korea has 1: Hyundai
  • Japan has basically 4: Toyota, Honda, Suzuki, Nissan (I'm counting Subaru and Mazda as part of Toyota which they are effectively anyway, and Mitsubishi is now a subsidiary of Nissan like Daihatsu is part of Toyota)
  • US has 2 legacy: Ford and GM
  • India is a closed market protected by the Govt and its car makers are not really competitive outside of India so I'm just going to ignore them.
  • China has 10 big enough to survive: SAIC, FAW, Dongfeng, Chang'an, BAIC, GAC, Geely, Chery, Greatwall, BYD.

Tesla is the only EV challenger that has established itself as a worldwide player. There are a handful of Chinese EV companies but I don't like their odd. I think eventually the Chinese Govt will favor the incumbent legacy state-owned car companies and squeeze out the privately funded EV startups.

 

So 12 car companies in traditional car producing countries, and 10 from China. Plus Tesla. Of the 23 companies, my guess is we will lose 4 or 5 in eventual merger - probably the bigger Chinese companies will start gobbling up the smaller ones and 3 or 4 surviving Chinese companies will emerge as global players. 

 

You will probably see companies retreat to a fortress regional bases e.g. Ford and GM and some will not do well in the BEV transition that they continue to decline and just tread water for another decade or so. 

 

 

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While Hyundai and Toyota do very well like Australia, it is a small market in comparison with Europe, China and North America. I’ve been watching Hyundai’s auto profits for the last few year even before covid, they were very skinny and probably propped up by their government. Toyota has a huge global footprint, they are massive but extremely vulnerable to the right products. They make a lot of profits away from North America and it will be interesting to see if that changes in the next year or so.
 

Toyota and other import brands are going to struggle in China as the government now favours local brands like BYD. BYD is having a huge spike in electric vehicles and as a battery maker, it has the inside running to be the dominant automaker. You can see the government supporting them ahead of other brands…we’re already seeing China taking back its domestic market but doing so with electric vehicles, something the foreign brands cannot match ..save for Tesla of course.

 

Europe is an interesting market, traditionally parochial towards local brands but Tesla has caught their eye and ramping up production and sales at an impressive pace, overshadowing efforts by VW to stay in touch, the premium brands just look like statues with EV developments. If the Chinese ever get into Europe, that could change sales momentum big time and probably what the protection barriers will go up…

 

In the automotive world, there is no safety in numbers, not if the profit is biased to premium vehicles and if a new competitor starts ripping away at those  core customers, it won’t take long to turn a major business upside down financially. The next few years is going to see the major European brands spending tens of billions trying to compete with Tesla and that going to kill them commercially for the next decade or so just to maintain the market share and income they have now…..this doesn’t end well for many executives.

 

America is a funny place, I mean in the sense of being surreal in the face of coming change and in spite of Chip shortages, there’s still plenty of ICE sales and everything seems to be busines as usual. New BEVs  seem to be regarded as additional product, not yet to the stage of replacing huge swathes of ICE sales but that may change over the next few years, Tesla seems ot be ramping up Tesla’s output so maybe the Y changes a lot of opinions by just being in the community….

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