akirby Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 7 hours ago, 2005Explorer said: Well I hope they don't cut too many of those positions in the quality control department. They really can't afford for quality to get worse right now. Ford blue won't be much of a profit generator if the products become lackluster in the near future. You don’t get quality from an organization. It comes from how you manage each part of the design, engineering, build and parts supply process. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 (edited) 10 hours ago, rperez817 said: Automotive industry analysts and experts have affirmed exactly what 7Mary3 stated: "Ford early on wasn't taking the EV revolution seriously and when they finally did they made a huge misstep in not setting up to do the battery engineering and manufacturing in-house (or at least with a partner)". And Jim Farley admitted just before the Ford+ plan was announced that Ford lacked the expertise to transition to BEV, due in no small part to poor past decisions like those that 7Mary3 mentioned. What's important nowadays is that Ford has a plan (Ford+) to rectify their past mistakes. If executed well, the Ford+ plan may accelerate the company's own goal to completely phase out sales of new ICE powered vehicles in all markets where they do business. Ford's current timeline for that is 2040, but it wouldn't be surprising if Ford achieves that by 2035 or even 2030. That’s their opinion (and yours) but they’ll have 600k Bev sales next year with minimal investment while ALSO enjoying super profitable ICE sales from Bronco, Bronco Sport and Maverick which probably wouldn’t have been possible if they went all in on BEVs like GM did. Given all that I bet they’d do it all over again. You can’t look at BEVs in a vacuum. And Ford will catch up with the vertically integrated dedicated platforms within a couple of years. Maybe you should ask where is GMs answer to Maverick and Bronco Sport? Where are their hybrids and PHEVs which, contrary to popular belief) are going to be around for quite some time. Edited July 21, 2022 by akirby 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 20 minutes ago, akirby said: That’s their opinion (and yours) That's not an opinion (mine or anyone else's), that's historical fact, what Ford actually did and didn't do in the context of their EV strategy over the past decade or so. And Jim Farley himself admitted that those actions were wrong. What's done is done. Here are a couple of my opinions about where Ford goes from here. Ford will catch up within a couple years with vertically integrated dedicated platforms (I agree with your opinion on this) The split into Model e and Blue divisions, and actions to grow the former while phasing out the latter, puts Ford in a better position that most other incumbent automakers amid the ongoing revolution Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying68 Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 7 hours ago, Footballfan said: Ford just reported a $3.1 billion loss. Blame Rivian - CNN 4 hours ago, jpd80 said: After Ford claimed an $8.2 billion profit on Rivian in 2021 Q4 https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/ford-q4-net-income-surges-123b-rivian-investment-gain @Footballfan Just so we are clear, this is what is called a Mark-to-Market adjustment. It is an accounting procedure that was implemented post Enron to properly value assets in each reporting period. Ford, by all accounts, had a $500 million cash investment in Rivian in 2019. I have seen other reports of ~$900mm invested in Q1 '21, but it isn't clear if that is cash or a combination of cash and technology/ip transfer. That investment translated into a fixed % of Rivian common stock, ~102mm shares. Once that happened, Ford was first forced to mark that asset at the end of Q4 '21, which at the time was way high (when I should have sold). Due to initial investor lockup agreements, they weren't allowed to sell and thus could not profit from that investment. By the end of Q1 '22, Rivian stock had cratered and Ford was forced to revalue that asset, resulting in a non-cash accounting loss. Ford has since sold off some of their holdings to recoup the cash investment, but continues to hold the majority of there stock. Their stake is now below 10% ownership in Rivian. They have sold a total of ~15mm shares and hold ~87mm shares. The first sale of 8mm shares netted ~$214mm and the second sale of 7mm netted ~$188mm. So they have recouped ~$402mm of the $500mm initial cash investment and still hold 87mm shares, which at todays price is ~$2,848mm, which is well above their total investment amount. By any method of accounting their investment is one of the best that they have ever made. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 1 hour ago, akirby said: You don’t get quality from an organization. It comes from how you manage each part of the design, engineering, build and parts supply process. Man do I have a good story I wish I could share. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 1 hour ago, rperez817 said: That's not an opinion (mine or anyone else's), that's historical fact, what Ford actually did and didn't do in the context of their EV strategy over the past decade or so. And Jim Farley himself admitted that those actions were wrong. What's done is done. Here are a couple of my opinions about where Ford goes from here. Ford will catch up within a couple years with vertically integrated dedicated platforms (I agree with your opinion on this) The split into Model e and Blue divisions, and actions to grow the former while phasing out the latter, puts Ford in a better position that most other incumbent automakers amid the ongoing revolution Those comments are all In terms of advancing EVs. But that doesn’t mean it was a bad business decision. We’ve discussed this before but Ford had a choice - do Blue Oval City and cancel some or all of the new vehicles (Bronco, Bronco Sport, Maverick, Ranger) or do the new vehicles and do Mach-E, F150 Lightning and E transit as interim BEVs. Soif you’re going to compare Ford to GM going forward you have to include Bronco, Bronco Sport and Maverick on Ford’s side along with their BEVs compared to GM Ultiums. Because that’s how Ford invested and personally I think it was a smart decision. Nobody knew for sure in 2017 what would happen with BEVs in 2022. But they knew damn sure they could sell those ICE vehicles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 23 minutes ago, akirby said: Soif you’re going to compare Ford to GM going forward you have to include Bronco, Bronco Sport and Maverick on Ford’s side along with their BEVs compared to GM Ultiums. Because that’s how Ford invested and personally I think it was a smart decision. Nobody knew for sure in 2017 what would happen with BEVs in 2022. But they knew damn sure they could sell those ICE vehicles. The other thing was that time Ford's lineup just got over a major consolidation and then was left to rot on the vine because of an economic issues that didn't materialize till 5-6 years later when the original decisions where being made with the old management 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 25 minutes ago, akirby said: Soif you’re going to compare Ford to GM going forward I personally don't care for that comparison, though automotive industry analysts and executives at both companies do. The comparison that matters to me, as a Ford BEV customer currently and in the future, is between the growth rate of Model e division and the shrink rate of Ford Blue over the next few years. In particular, when will Model e products comprise the majority of Ford's vehicle lineup across the globe and the majority of Ford's automotive revenues? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
7Mary3 Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 I really wonder what 'Ford Blue' is going to look like in a year or two. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bzcat Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 This explains Hau Thai-Tang's retirement... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 1 hour ago, 7Mary3 said: I really wonder what 'Ford Blue' is going to look like in a year or two. I'll put my feeling on it this way, I'm very glad I'm first in line for trades at my plant. I'm very nervous. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 1 hour ago, 7Mary3 said: I really wonder what 'Ford Blue' is going to look like in a year or two. Its going to take at least to the end of the decade to wind down ICE products. The last ICE product to get an MCE will prob be around 2027-that is if we see a new product like this supposed Subaru fighter coming out in the next year or two. I'd be really concerned as an engineer in ICE engines of having a job in the next five years, since I'd assume any development for products post 2025 ICE related will be finished by then, due the nature of long lead times for development. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ehaase Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 13 hours ago, Footballfan said: Remember the 1980s when the Taurus was supposed to replace the Crown Vic, the Sable the Grand Marquis, the FWD Continental the Town Car? Or the Ranger replacing for the most part the F-Series? I also vividly remember GM's X/J/A/C/N/H/E/K/L/W FWD programs of the 80's and the end result. Adam on the You Tube Rare Classic Car channel commented on how successful the FWD C/H program was, and I provided some sales statistics to show the opposite was true, though he never admits a mistake. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Footballfan Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 1 hour ago, silvrsvt said: Its going to take at least to the end of the decade to wind down ICE products. The last ICE product to get an MCE will prob be around 2027-that is if we see a new product like this supposed Subaru fighter coming out in the next year or two. I'd be really concerned as an engineer in ICE engines of having a job in the next five years, since I'd assume any development for products post 2025 ICE related will be finished by then, due the nature of long lead times for development. It all boils down to customer acceptance. Right now EVs are too expensive even with tax credits (that will likely be phased out) and they do not meet the needs of many. EVs will have to dramatically reduce charging times, extend range, drop weight and come down in price before most will consider them. This is not to mention the current void of a nationwide charging system. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 (edited) 28 minutes ago, Footballfan said: It all boils down to customer acceptance. Right now EVs are too expensive even with tax credits (that will likely be phased out) and they do not meet the needs of many. EVs will have to dramatically reduce charging times, extend range, drop weight and come down in price before most will consider them. This is not to mention the current void of a nationwide charging system. But current trends are saying they are. You seem to believe this is going to be an overnight thing-it is not. You'll still be able to buy an ICE power product for the next 5-10 years without an issue. Most people keep cars 8.5-10 years. We are at the crawl phase of this-just look at smartphones we went from 35% to 85% of Americans owning them in 10 years. it went from 1/3 to 1/2 of Americans owning one in 2 years from 2011 to 2013 BEVs are not too expensive (they might be for you) but you can get a Mach E or Model 3 for less then what the Average cost of a new car is-$47K Edited July 21, 2022 by silvrsvt 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 Update from Car and Driver 7/21/2022. Jim Farley confirmed the job cuts at Ford Blue in a video sent to employees this morning. Article is at the same link that Ovaltine provided in the first post. UPDATE 7/21/22: According to anonymous sources for the Detroit Free Press, Ford CEO Jim Farley addressed the reported job cuts in a video sent to employees 7 a.m. Thursday. The sources claim that, in the video, Farley did not deny the job cuts and reiterated the company's desire to reduce costs. A Ford spokesperson confirmed that the video was sent and its general premise to the Free Press, but a copy of the video is yet to be obtained. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Footballfan Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 55 minutes ago, rperez817 said: Update from Car and Driver 7/21/2022. Jim Farley confirmed the job cuts at Ford Blue in a video sent to employees this morning. Article is at the same link that Ovaltine provided in the first post. The floggings will continue until the morale improves..... 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coupe3w Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 (edited) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rpt-3-ford-buy-cheaper-184029937.html Drake said Ford wants to secure more batteries and battery materials from North America, but cautioned: "I wouldn't say that we have 100% confidence that all of these can be localized...It's hard work." It's hard work? My god what a cop out. Edited July 21, 2022 by coupe3w 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 22 minutes ago, coupe3w said: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rpt-3-ford-buy-cheaper-184029937.html Drake said Ford wants to secure more batteries and battery materials from North America, but cautioned: "I wouldn't say that we have 100% confidence that all of these can be localized...It's hard work." It's hard work? My god what a cop out. Its hard to buy something that doesn't exist 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coupe3w Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 26 minutes ago, silvrsvt said: Its hard to buy something that doesn't exist What doesn't exist? The materials or the people that won't do the work? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 (edited) On 7/21/2022 at 4:25 PM, coupe3w said: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rpt-3-ford-buy-cheaper-184029937.html Good article, thanks for sharing coupe3w. This quote is a good example why Jim Farley is so eager to learn as much as it can from Tesla, including by poaching Tesla employees. As others have said on this forum, Tesla's capability to design, engineer, build, and sell BEV profitably is unrivaled. Quote Lower-cost batteries could allow Ford to drop prices for the Lightning and Mach-E, or boost profit margins. Ford said it is aiming for 8% pretax profit margins on its EVs by 2026. The company has said its EV business currently is not profitable. Even an 8% margin would be short of the 14.6% operating margin Tesla Inc reported Wednesday for the second quarter. Edited July 24, 2022 by rperez817 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kev-Mo Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 EV in real life -so not ready for prime time. I would be really nervous if I were in the RV business. There is full frontal assault coming for that industry. 90 miles pulling 6k lbs., who on earth is going to consider that normal truck duty? Drive to your destination away from it all in the national forest, then wonder how you're going to recharge while setting up camp. https://insideevs.com/news/594871/ford-f150-lightning-vs-gas-truck-towing-range-single-charge/ 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fordmantpw Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 25 minutes ago, Kev-Mo said: EV in real life -so not ready for prime time. I would be really nervous if I were in the RV business. There is full frontal assault coming for that industry. 90 miles pulling 6k lbs., who on earth is going to consider that normal truck duty? Drive to your destination away from it all in the national forest, then wonder how you're going to recharge while setting up camp. https://insideevs.com/news/594871/ford-f150-lightning-vs-gas-truck-towing-range-single-charge/ Dramatic much? Trucks will be the last vehicles to lose their ICE, and they won't lose them until there is a viable replacement. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coupe3w Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 24 minutes ago, fordmantpw said: Dramatic much? Trucks will be the last vehicles to lose their ICE, and they won't lose them until there is a viable replacement. So why is Ford even doing it then? Now they are going for shorter range batteries just because it's easier to get them from China. Doesn't make any sense to me. People want range and quick charging. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 58 minutes ago, coupe3w said: What doesn't exist? The materials or the people that won't do the work? The plants to make the batteries in the U.S.? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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