Ford secures enough battery cells for 600k EVs in 2023

[silvrsvt]

New BEV SUV for EU too

[fuzzymoomoo]

That's great. What about the rest of the parts? 

[rperez817]

56 minutes ago, fuzzymoomoo said:

That's great. What about the rest of the parts? 

 

Ford may provide some insight on that during the earnings call next Wednesday or the Fireside Chat with BNP Paribas next Thursday.

 

Hopefully the company gets supply chain issues worked out sooner rather than later for all parts and components needed to build the BEV that customers are clamoring for. As Motor Trend said recently, "At this point, Americans aren't waiting for EV technology to mature or the price to come down. They're simply waiting for the EVs they want to be built. 

 

 

[bzcat]

No mention of battery supply for other 2024 models... I guess my glass is half empty today.

 

Half full version, this is the production target they published before so they are going to be able to meet it. Demand is there so it is all about making it happen. 

[Kev-Mo]

Now reliance on China controls our Automotive Industry. 

What can possibly go wrong with that?

Edited July 22, 2022 by Kev-Mo

[slemke]

On 7/21/2022 at 8:19 AM, rperez817 said:

 

Ford may provide some insight on that during the earnings call next Wednesday or the Fireside Chat with BNP Paribas next Thursday.

 

Hopefully the company gets supply chain issues worked out sooner rather than later for all parts and components needed to build the BEV that customers are clamoring for. As Motor Trend said recently, "At this point, Americans aren't waiting for EV technology to mature or the price to come down. They're simply waiting for the EVs they want to be built. 

 

 

Or pretty much any vehicle to be built.  

[jpd80]

On 7/22/2022 at 2:20 AM, bzcat said:

No mention of battery supply for other 2024 models... I guess my glass is half empty today.

 

Half full version, this is the production target they published before so they are going to be able to meet it. Demand is there so it is all about making it happen. 

That awful suspicion that Ford originally intended Lightning and Mach E to be much lower trickle targets, high end profit adders but then realised that a crap ton of people wanted them. Hackett didn’t understand what the B was in EVs stood for so never gave supply contracts another thought, left the mess for Farley to clean up…..

Edited July 23, 2022 by jpd80

[slemke]

49 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

That awful suspicion that Ford originally intended Lightning and Mach E to be much lower trickle targets, high end profit adders but then realised that a crap ton of people wanted them. Hackett didn’t understand what the B was in EVs stood for so never gave supply contracts another thought, left the mess for Farley to clean up…..

Yes, it looks like Farley is getting it in order.  New LFP battery chemistry should help contain costs.  Now if Ford also expands hybrid and plug-in hybrid availability they could be in pretty good shape.

[jpd80]

24 minutes ago, slemke said:

Yes, it looks like Farley is getting it in order.  New LFP battery chemistry should help contain costs.  Now if Ford also expands hybrid and plug-in hybrid availability they could be in pretty good shape.

Yes, LFP + Hybrid/PHEV is a much better combination for higher rates of discharge-recharge, I have a very good feeling about that…

[Trader 10]

6 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Yes, LFP + Hybrid/PHEV is a much better combination for higher rates of discharge-recharge, I have a very good feeling about that…

The problem with the new batteries Ford has secured is the limited range and MachE has shown that customers want the extended range batteries. 

[AGR]

On 7/21/2022 at 11:20 AM, bzcat said:

No mention of battery supply for other 2024 models... I guess my glass is half empty today.

 

Half full version, this is the production target they published before so they are going to be able to meet it. Demand is there so it is all about making it happen. 

 

I think this release shows where Ford will be getting batteries in the immediate future. Starting in 2024 or so, the 3 (or is 4) mega battery factories will start opening up.

[jpd80]

1 hour ago, Trader 10 said:

The problem with the new batteries Ford has secured is the limited range and MachE has shown that customers want the extended range batteries. 

No they’re not, some articles have lead people to believe that. The idea is to provide a battery pack that’s up to 15% cheaper without the use of nickel in the anode and to increase cell density at the same time . The cells being provided are to double the supply of vehicles, not just the small battery versions.

 

 

Quote

https://www.electrive.com/2022/07/22/ford-claims-to-have-amassed-enough-battery-cells-to-last-until-2023/

Ford does not mention details of the CATL deal for LFP cells in the press release. It only states that the cell chemistry reduces the dependence on critical raw materials such as nickel and that ten to 15 per cent of material costs can be saved. The specifications of the Mustang Mach-E and F-150 Lightning with LFP batteries and how much the vehicles will cost are not yet known. The agreed delivery volume is also not mentioned.

But: It will be prismatic LFP cells with the cell-to-pack technology of the Chinese company – so there are no more battery modules. At the presentation of the third CtP generation, CATL stated that up to 160 Wh/kg were possible with LFP cells. This generation is to be manufactured from 2023 – so it would fit in with Ford’s plans.

 

 

 

Edited July 23, 2022 by jpd80

[j2sys]

11 hours ago, jpd80 said:

That awful suspicion that Ford originally intended Lightning and Mach E to be much lower trickle targets, high end profit adders but then realised that a crap ton of people wanted them. Hackett didn’t understand what the B was in EVs stood for so never gave supply contracts another thought, left the mess for Farley to clean up…..

 

Despite reimagining the program as a Mustang (agree or disagree, that's the way Ford has designed/marketed it), Mach-E was still treated like the risky investment of a low volume compliance car from the original incarnation. Despite intentionally molding it into something people might want - a Mustang-branded Tesla Model Y competitor, leadership didn't expect it to take off.  So they underinvested and under-planned indeed.

[rperez817]

12 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Hackett didn’t understand what the B was in EVs stood for so never gave supply contracts another thought, left the mess for Farley to clean up…..

 

Yes indeed jpd80, this was Jim Hackett's biggest mistake during his tenure as Ford Motor Company CEO. By mid 2020 Hackett realized how critical it was for Ford to develop vertical integration capabilities and expand supplier relations for BEV, but shortly thereafter he retired and Jim Farley had to figure out how to get Ford to catch up.

[slemke]

1 hour ago, j2sys said:

 

Despite reimagining the program as a Mustang (agree or disagree, that's the way Ford has designed/marketed it), Mach-E was still treated like the risky investment of a low volume compliance car from the original incarnation. Despite intentionally molding it into something people might want - a Mustang-branded Tesla Model Y competitor, leadership didn't expect it to take off.  So they underinvested and under-planned indeed.

Which was perfectly acceptable given the perceived risk.  But, there was no contingency plan to increase supplies.  We see similar patterns with the F150 powerboost and escape hybrids.  But, no mention of how many additional units of these Ford is preparing to make in the near future.

[j2sys]

21 minutes ago, slemke said:

Which was perfectly acceptable given the perceived risk.  But, there was no contingency plan to increase supplies.  We see similar patterns with the F150 powerboost and escape hybrids.  But, no mention of how many additional units of these Ford is preparing to make in the near future.

 

It's one thing to be skeptical and cautious with the investments.

 

It's another entirely to not plan for both contingencies - it flops, or it takes off.  Seems that the skepticism indeed kept them back from planning for it to take off.  Instead of executing a plan to increase production, they were left scrambling.  That's not good.

Edited July 23, 2022 by j2sys

[jpd80]

5 hours ago, j2sys said:

 

Despite reimagining the program as a Mustang (agree or disagree, that's the way Ford has designed/marketed it), Mach-E was still treated like the risky investment of a low volume compliance car from the original incarnation.

Despite intentionally molding it into something people might want - a Mustang-branded Tesla Model Y competitor, leadership didn't expect it to take off.  So they underinvested and under-planned indeed.

Like the Lightning, Ford expected Mach E to be a hit but with a much slower ramp up where it could slowly increase battery supply.
 

No one could have imagined the huge buyer response to those two electric vehicles, the interest from Europe basically doubled Mach E orders virtually overnight. The real misperception at Ford was not anticipating the “what ifs” of massive buyer response to their products. So glad that Jim Farley is there making changes to get more battery supply and from a second supplier, single supplier was another big fail.

[j2sys]

50 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

Like the Lightning, Ford expected Mach E to be a hit but with a much slower ramp up where it could slowly increase battery supply.
 

No one could have imagined the huge buyer response to those two electric vehicles, the interest from Europe basically doubled Mach E orders virtually overnight. The real misperception at Ford was not anticipating the “what ifs” of massive buyer response to their products. So glad that Jim Farley is there making changes to get more battery supply and from a second supplier, single supplier was another big fail.

 

Exactly.

 

Part of it is that they expected the adoption for Mach-E and Lightning to be slower, and didn't adequately plan for them to be huge hits at launch.  So yeah, they probably assumed they had more time to ramp production.  Turns out, though, that when a "legacy" automaker like Ford builds a competitive EV, they'll sell every unit they can build.

 

Another thing is that these still weren't necessarily expected to be huge sellers long term, but rather a demonstration of what Ford could do, here and now, with current EV and vehicle manufacturing tech.  More of an interim step where they get the company's proverbial feet wet building something more than Focus Electric.  Meanwhile, they expected to continue to work on future models that would do higher volume.

 

End result is that they were blindsided by demand without a plan to handle it, without having secured avenues to increased battery supply.

 

The demand is a good problem to have; failing to plan for the possibility is not good.

[jpd80]

1 hour ago, j2sys said:

 

Exactly.

 

Part of it is that they expected the adoption for Mach-E and Lightning to be slower, and didn't adequately plan for them to be huge hits at launch.  So yeah, they probably assumed they had more time to ramp production.  Turns out, though, that when a "legacy" automaker like Ford builds a competitive EV, they'll sell every unit they can build.

 

Another thing is that these still weren't necessarily expected to be huge sellers long term, but rather a demonstration of what Ford could do, here and now, with current EV and vehicle manufacturing tech.  More of an interim step where they get the company's proverbial feet wet building something more than Focus Electric.  Meanwhile, they expected to continue to work on future models that would do higher volume.

 

End result is that they were blindsided by demand without a plan to handle it, without having secured avenues to increased battery supply.

 

The demand is a good problem to have; failing to plan for the possibility is not good.

The massive demand for Lightning actually changed Ford’s whole plan of Electric roll out as a gentle transitioning of Dearborn and KCAP to needing a dedicated high volume plant in Kentucky. Model E is clearly deviating from simply repurposing Ford Blue production facilities and I look forward to seeing how this gets resolved with the UAW at the next bargaining round.

 

To me, GE platform in Mach E was the ultimate through development of a C2 based vehicle into a stand alone BEV, Mach E is more than a match for Tesla Y but at a lower price which keeps it in the game. Sure, Ford has issues with locked in buyer pricing but that can only help promote the vehicle as an alternative to the Y. Until GM starts offering something that comes close, Ford can basically build and Sell Mach E to an almost unlimited number of buyer in China, America and Europe. it’s been forever since Ford could say that about any product.

Edited July 23, 2022 by jpd80

[j2sys]

40 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

The massive demand for Lightning actually changed Ford’s whole plan of Electric roll out as a gentle transitioning of Dearborn and KCAP to needing a dedicated high volume plant in Kentucky. Model E is clearly deviating from simply repurposing Ford Blue production facilities and I look forward to seeing how this gets resolved with the UAW at the next bargaining round.

 

To me, GE platform in Mach E was the ultimate through development of a C2 based vehicle into a stand alone BEV, Mach E is more than a match for Tesla Y but at a lower price which keeps it in the game. Sure, Ford has issues with locked in buyer pricing but that can only help promote the vehicle as an alternative to the Y. Until GM starts offering something that comes close, Ford can basically build and Sell Mach E to an almost unlimited number of buyer in China, America and Europe. it’s been forever since Ford could say that about any product.

 

Agreed.  They also expected Cuautitlán Stamping & Assembly to be able to produce Explorer BEV alongside Mustang Mach-E, before they realized the volume MME alone would do.  Explorer BEV got bumped out of the plant and down the timeline, details TBA.

Edited July 23, 2022 by j2sys

[jpd80]

1 hour ago, j2sys said:

 

Agreed.  They also expected Cuautitlán Stamping & Assembly to be able to produce Explorer BEV alongside Mustang Mach-E, before they realized the volume MME alone would do.  Explorer BEV got bumped out of the plant and down the timeline, details TBA.

More like the Lightning and Explorer BEV were also going to share batteries, so  Ford delayed the Explorer and relocated to Oakville, giving all three manufacturing locations the capacity needed…,.well the assumption was that Explorer BEV while complicating things would also be a huge hit too…,,

 

The train had left the station and Farley needed to act quickly, I think he’s done massively well to ensure acceleration of production continues.