Captainp4 Posted September 2, 2022 Share Posted September 2, 2022 25 minutes ago, rperez817 said: Ford said in its August 2022 sales press release that Ford BlueCruise and Lincoln ActiveGlide had "more than 16 million hands-free miles accumulated". As you noted, Tesla FSD has much more data and real-world testing by comparison. Ford does have an extensive Level 4 robotaxi testing operation going on nowadays through its Argo AI business unit. Currently, Ford is the first company in the world to test driverless vehicles in 2 U.S. cities simultaneously (Austin and Miami). That's pretty cool, I didn't realize they had that! Is it an AI based system? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted September 2, 2022 Share Posted September 2, 2022 21 minutes ago, Captainp4 said: That's pretty cool, I didn't realize they had that! Is it an AI based system? I agree Captainp4, it is really cool! The Ford/Argo AI system for Level 4 autonomous driving is indeed AI based using deep learning techniques with neural nets. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted September 3, 2022 Share Posted September 3, 2022 4 hours ago, Captainp4 said: I don't think I've ever heard anyone say that https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/mar/27/how-self-driving-cars-got-stuck-in-the-slow-lane Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captainp4 Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 On 9/2/2022 at 8:31 PM, akirby said: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/mar/27/how-self-driving-cars-got-stuck-in-the-slow-lane Good article pointing out the hard parts of AI based self driving, but that's the point of a beta program and why Tesla is so far ahead in that regard. Elon might be overly optimistic on his timelines (he admits this himself), but it's rare he doesn't deliver on his promises. I started following him because I find the spaceX stuff fascinating, but the more I learn about him and all of his companies the more I like what he does, including Tesla. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 1 hour ago, Captainp4 said: Elon might be overly optimistic on his timelines (he admits this himself), but it's rare he doesn't deliver on his promises. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 1 hour ago, Captainp4 said: Good article pointing out the hard parts of AI based self driving, but that's the point of a beta program and why Tesla is so far ahead in that regard. These aren’t bugs that need to be worked out. These are fundamental issues with how the vehicle interacts with the environment in certain border conditions. It’s easy to do the sunny day scenario where weather is good, roads are marked, GPS maps are correct and everyone behaves correctly. Hackers and inexperienced developers stop there. Those of us who have done mission critical software know that’s just the beginning. You must take into account equipment failures; bad weather obscuring cameras and road markings and signs; detours; officers manually directing traffic, accidents, road closures, animals, pedestrians. Etc etc etc. That’s the last 5% that is so hard and IMO will never be fully solved. But if you add a backup driver then you don’t need that last 5%. Or you restrict usage to a known area like an amusement park or local neighborhood and if something unknown happens you just shut it down. Thats why companies have backed off the 100% autonomous goal - they finally realized what some of us have been saying for years. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captainp4 Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 54 minutes ago, akirby said: These aren’t bugs that need to be worked out. These are fundamental issues with how the vehicle interacts with the environment in certain border conditions. It’s easy to do the sunny day scenario where weather is good, roads are marked, GPS maps are correct and everyone behaves correctly. Hackers and inexperienced developers stop there. Those of us who have done mission critical software know that’s just the beginning. You must take into account equipment failures; bad weather obscuring cameras and road markings and signs; detours; officers manually directing traffic, accidents, road closures, animals, pedestrians. Etc etc etc. That’s the last 5% that is so hard and IMO will never be fully solved. But if you add a backup driver then you don’t need that last 5%. Or you restrict usage to a known area like an amusement park or local neighborhood and if something unknown happens you just shut it down. Thats why companies have backed off the 100% autonomous goal - they finally realized what some of us have been saying for years. Yes, I understand all of the issues and was very critical of even trying in the beginning - though my viewpoint was from the liability and legal side. I just think if someone is going to achieve the goal, it will be Tesla because they are so far ahead of every one else with real world data. Cybertruck will most likely be out next year. Supply chain issues that disrupted all auto makers was the main culprit, let's not act like F didn't follow the same playbook taking people's money for reservations and not delivering for way longer than promised with Bronco and Mach E. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonj80 Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 52 minutes ago, Captainp4 said: Yes, I understand all of the issues and was very critical of even trying in the beginning - though my viewpoint was from the liability and legal side. I just think if someone is going to achieve the goal, it will be Tesla because they are so far ahead of every one else with real world data. Cybertruck will most likely be out next year. Supply chain issues that disrupted all auto makers was the main culprit, let's not act like F didn't follow the same playbook taking people's money for reservations and not delivering for way longer than promised with Bronco and Mach E. Mach-e hit the launch date, Bronco was off because of the pandemic and the roof issue. Now as with the whole industry it is just a supply chain disaster issue with components and price increases. If Ford could get the supplies to build more Mach-e's they would be running 3 shifts at the plant. Tesla will just use roads as beta as they are doing now, if a few people die that is okay with Tesla and Elon. Tesla the Company will blame the driver as it is an "assist system" and Elon will tout that it is still saver than Human Drivers. Tesla needs to widely launch the system as they are getting real competition in the electric vehicle space and this fancy named level 2 system sets them apart for people that don't understand what a level 2 system actually is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captainp4 Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 43 minutes ago, jasonj80 said: Mach-e hit the launch date, Bronco was off because of the pandemic and the roof issue. Now as with the whole industry it is just a supply chain disaster issue with components and price increases. If Ford could get the supplies to build more Mach-e's they would be running 3 shifts at the plant. Tesla will just use roads as beta as they are doing now, if a few people die that is okay with Tesla and Elon. Tesla the Company will blame the driver as it is an "assist system" and Elon will tout that it is still saver than Human Drivers. Tesla needs to widely launch the system as they are getting real competition in the electric vehicle space and this fancy named level 2 system sets them apart for people that don't understand what a level 2 system actually is. If Tesla could magically launch their new giga factories up to full steam they'd be even further ahead than they are with EV market share, supply chain sucks for everyone right now, but Tesla appears to be managing it better than most. I mean, that's the point of calling it a beta software. They only give it to people with a high enough safety score, the ones that are actually interested in helping it learn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 Most companies don’t beta test software on unsuspecting buyers when failure causes deaths and injuries. 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonj80 Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, akirby said: Most companies don’t beta test software on unsuspecting buyers when failure causes deaths and injuries. Exactly, that is the issue Tesla kills its own occupants - who cares they signed up for it. Tesla kills someone else when something doesn't go as planned and its still not their fault. Also If you show the beta system not working properly you get fired or kicked out the beta program. Edited September 6, 2022 by jasonj80 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captainp4 Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 On 9/6/2022 at 4:45 PM, akirby said: Most companies don’t beta test software on unsuspecting buyers when failure causes deaths and injuries. As I've said multiple times already, that's why they're so far ahead. You have the option and understand it's a beta program, you're still ultimately responsible because you're supposed to be monitoring it. No other company has the balls to try that, but it's the only way it might work one day. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captainp4 Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 I'm sure the first blueballs cruise death will be the driver's fault and F did nothing wrong though, lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 38 minutes ago, Captainp4 said: As I've said multiple times already, that's why they're so far ahead. You have the option and understand it's a beta program, you're still ultimately responsible because you're supposed to be monitoring it. No other company has the balls to try that, but it's the only way it might work one day. Original autopilot was marketed as full autonomous driving and people died using it that way. There was no “beta” opt in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 40 minutes ago, Captainp4 said: I'm sure the first blueballs cruise death will be the driver's fault and F did nothing wrong though, lol Ford isn’t stupid enough to do what Tesla did. They won’t even let the passenger operate the touch screen while driving. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmc523 Posted September 11, 2022 Share Posted September 11, 2022 On 9/6/2022 at 1:51 PM, akirby said: Don't forget the Semi and Roadster, which were both shown in 2017, and supposed to debut in 2020 and 2021, and still are nowhere to be seen. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captainp4 Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 Not to keep beating a dead horse or get too off topic, but saw this today, thought you guys might like it Obviously every scenario is different, but this drive hit almost all of the claimed problem areas from pedestrians to cyclists to left hand turns across traffic without a hiccup. They're making great progress on it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 That is the epitome of “sunny day scenarios”. Show me poorly marked roads in a heavy downpour or snow. Show me wrecks blocking the road. Show me officers directing traffic. Show me temporary detours. Construction zones. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captainp4 Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 22 minutes ago, akirby said: That is the epitome of “sunny day scenarios”. Show me poorly marked roads in a heavy downpour or snow. Show me wrecks blocking the road. Show me officers directing traffic. Show me temporary detours. Construction zones. I mean I agree with you that the extreme scenarios are more difficult and will certainly share if I see anything on my twitter feed or youtube, I still maintain Tesla is miles ahead on this and will be the one to "solve" it first, if anyone does. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Captainp4 said: I mean I agree with you that the extreme scenarios are more difficult and will certainly share if I see anything on my twitter feed or youtube, I still maintain Tesla is miles ahead on this and will be the one to "solve" it first, if anyone does. You're assuming they can be solved. Those of us who have done this type of critical software for a living aren’t so sure. Not 100%. And you can’t turn this loose on all public streets without a driver until all of those known scenarios are accounted for. Because there will always be unknowns on top of the knowns. Until then it will be restricted use in known areas in good weather and a driver aid. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurtisH Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 15 hours ago, akirby said: You're assuming they can be solved. Those of us who have done this type of critical software for a living aren’t so sure. Not 100%. And you can’t turn this loose on all public streets without a driver until all of those known scenarios are accounted for. Because there will always be unknowns on top of the knowns. Until then it will be restricted use in known areas in good weather and a driver aid. Most of my career has been in business-oriented software development (not banking). I usually have a 95% rule. That is, make sure the code can handle 95% of the possible scenarios. The remaining 5% may never occur. Just make sure that the error-handling routines gracefully handle that 5% if they actually occur. Even with this approach, it takes extensive testing. For level 5 autonomous driving, this approach would never work. I can’t imagine how difficult it will be to solve this puzzle. I’m still not sure it will be solved in my lifetime. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 21 minutes ago, CurtisH said: Most of my career has been in business-oriented software development (not banking). I usually have a 95% rule. That is, make sure the code can handle 95% of the possible scenarios. The remaining 5% may never occur. Just make sure that the error-handling routines gracefully handle that 5% if they actually occur. Even with this approach, it takes extensive testing. For level 5 autonomous driving, this approach would never work. I can’t imagine how difficult it will be to solve this puzzle. I’m still not sure it will be solved in my lifetime. Exactly. You don’t have to solve every scenario but you have to make sure a failure is handled gracefully. That’s pretty easy with applications but with a vehicle you can’t just shut down the vehicle and leave it in the middle of the road. Or cause a fatal accident. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fordmantpw Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 34 minutes ago, akirby said: Exactly. You don’t have to solve every scenario but you have to make sure a failure is handled gracefully. That’s pretty easy with applications but with a vehicle you can’t just shut down the vehicle and leave it in the middle of the road. Or cause a fatal accident. Meh, just log the error and keep on truckin! 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 24 minutes ago, fordmantpw said: Meh, just log the error and keep on truckin! I know you’re being sarcastic but I fear this will actually be the approach. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmc523 Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, fuzzymoomoo said: I know you’re being sarcastic but I fear this will actually be the approach. Tesla will introduce a features that has the car ask “are you ok? Ok bye” and drive away after it hits someone lol Edited September 16, 2022 by rmc523 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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