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Transit Connect to be discontinued in U.S. after 2023.


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3 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Here’s a bit from the article some of you can’t see…

 

 So small van sales are contracting pretty badly even as some players departed, Ford will probably double down with full size Transit sales and maybe push the SWB version to replace TC as much as possible…

 

The small van segment has always been a niche market but even with the relatively small market size the Transit Connect has dominated the market for a long time. It's hard to sell product like the Transit Connect, that you can't stock because there hasn't been any stock allocation available for months on end and has an OTD (Order to Delivery) of 6 months. No doubt, between the declining sales figures and the success of the Maverick and Bronco Sport, there just isn't plant capacity available to justify building a next generation TC in North America. It'll be interesting to see what happens with the Ford/VW relationship going forward but I'm not counting on it being long term. 

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3 hours ago, jpd80 said:

 So small van sales are contracting pretty badly even as some players departed, Ford will probably double down with full size Transit sales and maybe push the SWB version to replace TC as much as possible…

 

With a $10K difference in base price between TC and Transit (cargo), there's work to be done.

 

HRG

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26 minutes ago, fuzzymoomoo said:


There's room in Louisville 

 

Agreed. I think it's more a matter of justifying the expense for the relatively small production numbers for anticipated sales. And I don't see TC buyers moving up to the full-size Transit, even the base T-150 SWB. 

Edited by ice-capades
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6 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Here’s a bit from the article some of you can’t see…

 

 So small van sales are contracting pretty badly even as some players departed, Ford will probably double down with full size Transit sales and maybe push the SWB version to replace TC as much as possible…


yeah I feel this is a self-inflicted wound.  Limits on importing, plus chip/production issues, and invisibly sales will be down.

 

I won’t be surprised to see a BEV replacement come out down the road, though.  Too big of a gap below Transit, IMO, not to have something in the segment.

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21 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

Maybe a fleet version of the Maverick with a cap on the bed would be a better fit for some customers? Or remove the rear seats


haha sounds like the reverse reasoning for dropping….Ranger I think it was ?  “Customers can go to fiesta or transit connect”

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7 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Here’s a bit from the article some of you can’t see…

 

 So small van sales are contracting pretty badly even as some players departed, Ford will probably double down with full size Transit sales and maybe push the SWB version to replace TC as much as possible…

 

I would frame the sales decline in context. It's probably not for lack of demand but more of a supply issue.

 

Nissan NV200 was never designed for duty cycle typically seen in North America. The skinny tires tells the whole story. Nissan kept the thing in the market for many years because Carlos Ghosn insisted Nissan be a player in commercial fleet sale and NV200 made sense as a companion model to the larger NV2500 vans. Their departure from US market was predictable as soon as Carlos Ghosn was gone... It was an uphill battle for Nissan to try to muscle in on the commercial fleet sales market in the US with poor product fit and lack of fleet solutions. Ford is simply too strong of a player. If Toyota knows not to challenge Ford, Nissan didn't really stand a chance.

 

Transit Connect sales started falling once Ford knew it was going to lose the Chicken Tax case - volume dropped because Ford was holding back the imports. Likewise Stellantis which used the same tactics for Promaster City slowed down the import once it was clear Ford lost the case and Treasury will come after them next.

 

4 hours ago, blazerdude20 said:

You can’t buy what isn’t available. We waited ten months for our vans. Even when I worked at a ford dealership they could never keep stock of them. It’s strange. 

 

The long supply chain and limited fleet customization option was always the challenge with TC. And Ford drastically reduced the volume once the Chicken Tax case went south.

 

1 hour ago, silvrsvt said:

Maybe a fleet version of the Maverick with a cap on the bed would be a better fit for some customers? Or remove the rear seats

 

That's the project that got cancelled. V758 was supposed to be a van version of P758 (Maverick). It was going to be optimized for North America form factor (longer and wider) and which is why Ford Europe bailed out of the project and went with rebadged VW Caddy because it was shorter but with taller roof, more in line with market demand and preference there. 

Edited by bzcat
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1 hour ago, bzcat said:

That's the project that got cancelled. V758 was supposed to be a van version of P758 (Maverick). It was going to be optimized for North America form factor (longer and wider) and which is why Ford Europe bailed out of the project and went with rebadged VW Caddy because it was shorter but with taller roof, more in line with market demand and preference there. 

I’m aware of that-I was just thinking of some low lying fruit for Ford if they didn’t want to completely pull out of the market that would have almost no engineering costs. 
 

It would appeal to the people who had caps or setups on The old Ranger like Orkin did years ago. 
 

 

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Ford thought Ranger buyers would buy F150s, instead they bought mid size pickups from Ford's competitors... And a few years later at much greater expense Ford had to bring Ranger back. Now Ford thinks Transit Connect buyers will switch to big Transit? Fat chance, big Transit won't even fit in my garage!

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1 hour ago, GearheadGrrrl said:

Ford thought Ranger buyers would buy F150s, instead they bought mid size pickups from Ford's competitors... And a few years later at much greater expense Ford had to bring Ranger back. Now Ford thinks Transit Connect buyers will switch to big Transit? Fat chance, big Transit won't even fit in my garage!

 

Correct on all counts GearheadGrrrl. When the previous gen Ranger was discontinued in 2011, I think one Ford executive suggested that Transit Connect would be an appropriate substitute for Ranger! That's almost as idiotic as the idea that Ranger customers would consider buying an F-150.

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IMO, Bronco Sport and Maverick are both great products that are in demand, a much better use of the Transit Connect version of the C2 platform. This is all linked back to Farley cutting costs in Ford Blue and doubling down on products that improve profit.  Anyone wanting a smallish van will be pointed to the SWB Transit and if they get a few TC buyer then that’s all Ford expects, they’re done chasing low profit segments.

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25 minutes ago, akirby said:


I thought it needed to be in Mexico to support exports to Latin and South America?

Even that doesn’t stack up now, the South Americans are wary of Mexico dumping products in their market as those can probably be supplied from Europe anyway…

 

I’m wondering what will happen at Louisville if indeed Escape sales continue stay low, Ford branding it as a commodity product doesn’t help. Is Ford  planning another product there or setting Louisville up for the chop later this decade….

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52 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

 

I’m wondering what will happen at Louisville if indeed Escape sales continue stay low, Ford branding it as a commodity product doesn’t help. Is Ford  planning another product there or setting Louisville up for the chop later this decade….


Sounds like a perfect opportunity to bring in C2 Nautilus hybrids to go with Corsair and Hermosillo overflow.

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1 hour ago, Rodrigo said:

jpd80, Brasil and Argentina they have agreements with Mexico and do not pay import duties. On the other hand, if a car arrives from Europe, it pays a 35% tariff.

 

I could be working off old information when Brazil and Argentina were more protective of their markets. Either way, it looks like Ford is dropping vehicles that it sees as “not important” have been doing so for the past 20 years….

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2 hours ago, jpd80 said:

I’m wondering what will happen at Louisville if indeed Escape sales continue stay low, Ford branding it as a commodity product doesn’t help. Is Ford  planning another product there or setting Louisville up for the chop later this decade….

 

The proximity of the 2 battery plants to be built in Kentucky favor a future for Louisville to build an EV product(s) in the future, the logistics savings would presumably be compelling. Otherwise, it wouldn't make sense to build 2 battery plants so far from other production sites - especially since Ford have already shown their preferred model (battery plants on site with production) with the design of Blue Oval City.

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3 hours ago, Harley Lover said:

 

The proximity of the 2 battery plants to be built in Kentucky favor a future for Louisville to build an EV product(s) in the future, the logistics savings would presumably be compelling. Otherwise, it wouldn't make sense to build 2 battery plants so far from other production sites - especially since Ford have already shown their preferred model (battery plants on site with production) with the design of Blue Oval City.

I think those logistics would be more for the benefit of Kentucky Truck Plant than Louisville, there’s already a Super Duty BEV  in development as well as BEV Expedition/Navigator…..


I have  a soft spot for Escape but I think it’s been mishandled as Kuga / Escape ( not enough US input) and Ford has a real problem with affordable compact BEV anything, they need C2 hybrid & PHEV for now…..

Edited by jpd80
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7 hours ago, akirby said:


I thought it needed to be in Mexico to support exports to Latin and South America?

Then Ford can move some Maverick and Bronco sport production to the US.  Build the Maverick and/or Bronco Sport at Louisville or Flat Rock for the US market, and use Hermosillo as the source for export markets and overflow for US demand.

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4 hours ago, Harley Lover said:

 

The proximity of the 2 battery plants to be built in Kentucky favor a future for Louisville to build an EV product(s) in the future, the logistics savings would presumably be compelling. Otherwise, it wouldn't make sense to build 2 battery plants so far from other production sites - especially since Ford have already shown their preferred model (battery plants on site with production) with the design of Blue Oval City.

A lot of these plant sites- as we seen with GM, Toyota, and Stellantis- are selected using the center of gravity model. In a nutshell it means selecting a site that balances out the shipping costs.  I do not know how these things are shipped, but if it were by truck, it would be a day's drive to any of Ford's plants in North America.  

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7 hours ago, jpd80 said:

IMO, Bronco Sport and Maverick are both great products that are in demand, a much better use of the Transit Connect version of the C2 platform. This is all linked back to Farley cutting costs in Ford Blue and doubling down on products that improve profit.  Anyone wanting a smallish van will be pointed to the SWB Transit and if they get a few TC buyer then that’s all Ford expects, they’re done chasing low profit segments.

Or they will be pointed to a competitor as they will with the Edge discontinuation. 

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