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Transit Connect to be discontinued in U.S. after 2023.


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1 hour ago, silvrsvt said:

 

Technically you can move to a Mach E or the BEV Explorer as a replacement, since it appears that will be a 2 row vehicle

That’s true - the issue I believe is cost. Mach E is a big price jump over the Edge and I’m sure the Explorer BEV will be priced higher than the Mach E. The BEV vehicles are unaffordable for a large section of Ford’s traditional buyers. 

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1 hour ago, Trader 10 said:

That’s true - the issue I believe is cost. Mach E is a big price jump over the Edge and I’m sure the Explorer BEV will be priced higher than the Mach E. The BEV vehicles are unaffordable for a large section of Ford’s traditional buyers. 

 

Base model price for both (at the moment) difference is only $5K, not including the 7K tax break.

 

But yeah the Mach E and Lightning are going up in  price. I'm hoping Ford and others figure out a way to get that under control. I'm wondering what exactly (I know its commodity prices for materials, but which one exactly)

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22 minutes ago, Harley Lover said:

 

What 7k tax break?

Actually $7500

 

https://afdc.energy.gov/laws/409

 



A tax credit is available for the purchase of a new qualified PEV that draws propulsion using a traction battery that has at least five kilowatt-hours (kWh) of capacity, uses an external source of energy to recharge the battery, has a gross vehicle weight rating of up to 14,000 pounds, and meets specified emission standards. The minimum credit amount is $2,500, and the credit may be up to $7,500, based on each vehicle's traction battery capacity and the gross vehicle weight rating. The credit will begin to be phased out for each manufacturer in the second quarter following the calendar quarter in which a minimum of 200,000 qualified PEVs have been sold by that manufacturer for use in the United States. This tax credit applies to vehicles acquired after December 31, 2009.

 

Ford still gets it for the time being and I think it might change in a year or two due to the "Inflation" Reduction Act. 

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25 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

Actually $7500

Ford still gets it for the time being and I think it might change in a year or two due to the "Inflation" Reduction Act. 

 

You're kidding, right? Have you not heard of the Inflation Reduction Act? You know, the new law that throws out the law you just quoted? The one that takes effect on January 1, 2023 and requires not only only construction in North America, but also requires minerals for the batteries from the U.S. or 'friendly' countries (i.e. no more Chinese minerals), etc., etc., etc.,?

 

The law that, except for preexisting sales contracts between consumers and OEM's, applies to all new sales and applies both an income cap on the consumer and a price cap on the EV?

 

Also the law that, so far, no OEM has claimed they can meet as of January 1? That law?

Edited by Harley Lover
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20 minutes ago, Harley Lover said:

 

You're kidding, right? Have you not heard of the Inflation Reduction Act? You know, the new law that throws out the law you just quoted? The one taht takes effect on January 1

 

Well still applies if you bought a Mach E this year.

I've seen different stories about the so called inflation reduction act to include that cars currently built in the US won't be able to apply for it due to the battery content and given current timelines won't happen till 2025 or 2026 when BOC is opened. 

I was hoping that they would sunset the current tax breaks when that happens because otherwise your just fucking everyone for the next two years that wants to buy one. 

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51 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

Base model price for both (at the moment) difference is only $5K, not including the 7K tax break.

 

But yeah the Mach E and Lightning are going up in  price. I'm hoping Ford and others figure out a way to get that under control. I'm wondering what exactly (I know its commodity prices for materials, but which one exactly)

 

The BEV government incentives ($7,500) are basically smoke and mirror political maneuvers. Under the new legislation, 70% of the BEV vehicles currently available don't qualify because of all the applicable conditions. And few will see the full $7,500 tax credit benefit. If the $7,500 was applied as a credit/rebate against the vehicle price, the sales impact would be substantial. 

 

No question that the supply chain issues, etc. are increasing vehicle costs and prices higher. At the same time, the government incentives allow the manufacturers to increase prices even higher. 

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4 hours ago, Trader 10 said:

That’s true - the issue I believe is cost. Mach E is a big price jump over the Edge and I’m sure the Explorer BEV will be priced higher than the Mach E. The BEV vehicles are unaffordable for a large section of Ford’s traditional buyers. 

This is a point missed on many, Ford simply can’t deliver an affordable compact BEV, that’s why they turned to VW’s MEB but now getting cold feet with more than two vehicles….that in my opinion is exactly why they are now delaying the BEV switchover at Valencia. Farley is stuck in Europe, produce BEVs are are either unaffordable or worse affordable and unprofitable….

 

New Ford models in China but One Ford is no longer a catch phrase at Ford because BEV is everything to Ford.

Ford will do what it’s always done, play to its strengths and cut vehicles it thinks are not that important,

it’s like they have their ICE vehicles picked out for the run to the finish…..

Edited by jpd80
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On 8/23/2022 at 5:45 AM, fuzzymoomoo said:


I'm calling it now........ I'm not convinced that the heavy trucks survive to the end of the decade.. 

 

Sadly yes, I would have to agree.  My guess is the 650/750 and the E series will likely get cut due soon to volume.  When I heard about the fuel cell medium duty project I was hoping that it would include the F-650 and 750, figuring that would indicate those products have a future.  Unfortunately at this point the FCV medium duty is F-550 based.   

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16 hours ago, 7Mary3 said:

 

Sadly yes, I would have to agree.  My guess is the 650/750 and the E series will likely get cut due soon to volume.  When I heard about the fuel cell medium duty project I was hoping that it would include the F-650 and 750, figuring that would indicate those products have a future.  Unfortunately at this point the FCV medium duty is F-550 based.   

 

Still not clear what Ford wants to do here. FCV won't be a feasible solution for retail customers (think the brodozer crowd and all the F-250 urban cowboys) so Ford will probably pursue PHEV strategy with next gen Superduty. 

 

As far as F650 and E-series, the question is if Ford still wants to compete in the stripped chassis market because that is the part of the business that makes money. F650 and E-series cab or cutaway are visible part of that business but I think what utility step van makers want will drive the replacement decision. I still maintain that BEV will win out over FCV for practical reasons... no small or medium size fleet operators can afford to install onsite hydrogen infrastructure but they can all afford a couple of Level 2 chargers. 

Edited by bzcat
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Transit Connect was selling 40k units a year in U.S. when chips were available, IIRC that's more sales than E Cutaway, Stripped Chassis, or F650/750. IC Mustang sales have been even lower of late, never mind some of the laggard Lincolns... Is the Ford about to kill off all these other products too?

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39 minutes ago, GearheadGrrrl said:

Transit Connect was selling 40k units a year in U.S. when chips were available, IIRC that's more sales than E Cutaway, Stripped Chassis, or F650/750. IC Mustang sales have been even lower of late, never mind some of the laggard Lincolns... Is the Ford about to kill off all these other products too?


The business case for each product is unique.

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Profit margin on stripped chassis is probably much better than Transit Connect. And plant utilization at Ohio and Flat Rock are important considerations.

 

And truth be told, Transit Connect would still be with us if Maverick and Bronco Sport were not such big success with long wait list and selling over MSRP. The business plan for Hermosilo C2 was baked in with all 3 products. Ford went as far as getting supplier bids for 2023 Transit Connect components so they were serious about renewing it - the engineering had already been done at that point. But clearly Ford now thinks it will make more money building the two than to utilize the plant capacity for the 3rd model.

Edited by bzcat
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In normal markets stripped chassis sold mostly to volume buyers like up fitters and RV makers so profits were pretty low. Transit Connect wagons are probably profitable and the vans not so much, thanks to the "Chicken Tax". That said, a couple years ago fleet prices for basic Transit Connect and Transit 150 vans were around $20K, so even after the unexpected levy of the Chicken Tax on the Transit Connect both probably had about equally meager profits, if any.

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Remember there are 2 stripped chassis models.  The E-series built at Avon Lake and the F53 built at Detroit Chassis (a contractor).  FWIW, my guess is the E series is probably on the way out but the F53 may have a future as it doesn't take up valuable Ford plant space.  Historically the stripped chassis business has been very low margin, GM used to own it but left because of meager profits even though the unfinished vehicles are so easy to produce.  

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5 hours ago, bzcat said:

Profit margin on stripped chassis is probably much better than Transit Connect. And plant utilization at Ohio and Flat Rock are important considerations.

 

And truth be told, Transit Connect would still be with us if Maverick and Bronco Sport were not such big success with long wait list and selling over MSRP. The business plan for Hermosilo C2 was baked in with all 3 products. Ford went as far as getting supplier bids for 2023 Transit Connect components so they were serious about renewing it - the engineering had already been done at that point. But clearly Ford now thinks it will make more money building the two than to utilize the plant capacity for the 3rd model.

And next year Hermosillo adds a rumored 3rd shift to increase Bronco Sport and Maverick production.

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1 hour ago, fuzzymoomoo said:


Im not buying it. MAP has been rumored to be getting a third shift for over a year with zero movement on it. 

 

Adding a third shift at either plant probably comes down to having adequate supplies to support building the units that adding a third shift would represent - one would think that Ford could certainly sell the added output of the products if they were available.. Perhaps if/when a third shift is added at either/both plants, we can take it as an unspoken affirmation that the supply situation is much improved.

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Remember when Ford used to build a cheaper version of an existing car and give it a different name. 1970 Torino and its cheap-o Falcon version? Galaxie, Custom, LTD on same vehicle? I think they could take a Bronco Sport, put a Maverick nose on it...strip out the interior aft of the front seats and call it Maverick Custom, Maverick Connect....there is a viable replacement for Transit Connect. Just some things that run through my head on a Saturday night.

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2 hours ago, twintornados said:

Remember when Ford used to build a cheaper version of an existing car and give it a different name. 1970 Torino and its cheap-o Falcon version? Galaxie, Custom, LTD on same vehicle? I think they could take a Bronco Sport, put a Maverick nose on it...strip out the interior aft of the front seats and call it Maverick Custom, Maverick Connect....there is a viable replacement for Transit Connect. Just some things that run through my head on a Saturday night.

I sense that if Ford wasn’t experiencing chip shortages, Hermosillo production would be maxed out on  Bronco Sport and Maverick. Thanks to Covid and chip shortages, Ford has learned the importance of prioritising production to make a more profitable sales mix.

 

Had Ford continued with development of Maverick Utility then maybe it would have been a better replacement for the Escape…

Edited by jpd80
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10 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Had Ford continued with development of Maverick Utility then maybe it would have been a better replacement for the Escape…

 

I'm not sure about that, that would be doubling your effort for no good reason or at least making a "cheap" version of the Escape. 

It seems like they are sorting the Escape out finally next year with the Bronco Sport also in the lineup and I'm also guessing the gas Escape is lucky to last another 5 years on the market or so with the BEV version coming out, but then again a vehicle like that can't absorb a 20-25% price increase either...so hopefully going forward materials for BEVs will be more stable then they are currently, or everyone is gonna have a bad time.  

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