Ford Starts Construction of Blue Oval City

[akirby]

I don’t think Bronco or Ranger had a good business case without the other one to share a factory and platform.

[fuzzymoomoo]

55 minutes ago, akirby said:

I don’t think Bronco or Ranger had a good business case without the other one to share a factory and platform.

No, obviously. What I meant was it was never going to be Bronco before Ranger. The NA Ranger is kind of a bridge between the ROW Ranger and Bronco. Yes it’s technically the same platform but they’re really the same in name only. 

[rperez817]

3 hours ago, jpd80 said:

All I’m saying is that current orders for F150 are running strongly as conquest buyers ~70% are new to F150, 30% are returning F150 buyers or Ford brand buyers. So any thought that F150 ICE buyers will be switching to Lightning en masse is extremely premature, this is clearly a new set of buyers that draws from previous F150 buyers but mostly “new buyers”.

 

I generally stay away from surveys about which EVs  people are likely to buy because the actual signed up buyer are more intersting.

 

Thanks for the clarification jpd80. I agree that more sales data over a longer period of time will be appropriate for the kind of analysis you mentioned in your previous post. But overall, F-150 Lightning is off to a great start and Ford is using its first mover advantage in the BEV full size LD pickup segment effectively.  

 

Based on the current growth rate it won't be long after the midpoint of this decade that F-150 ICE buyers will switch en masse to Lightning. The only notable constraint is Ford's ability to produce enough Lightnings to meet demand now and in the future. Blue Oval City (among other capital investments at Ford) should address that though.  

Edited October 4, 2022 by rperez817

[fuzzymoomoo]

1 hour ago, rperez817 said:

Based on the current growth rate it won't be long after the midpoint of this decade that F-150 ICE buyers will switch en masse to Lightning.

 

[jpd80]

I’m not convinced that F150 buyers will switch en masse by 2025, that remains to be seen. Ford is definitely counting on it and it could be a generational thing where new younger buyers embrace BEV F150 quicker than owners in their 50s and 60s. Ford still has to prove that it can lick supply problems and build the volume of products it needs to fill today’s orders.

Edited October 4, 2022 by jpd80

[slemke]

2 hours ago, jpd80 said:

I’m not convinced that F150 buyers will switch en masse by 2025, that remains to be seen. Ford is definitely counting on it and it could be a generational thing where new younger buyers embrace BEV F150 quicker than owners in their 50s and 60s. Ford still has to prove that it can lick supply problems and build the volume of products it needs to fill today’s orders.

2025 is only 3 years away.  I have my doubts about Ford having the production capability to support it.  Production of lightning is still 2k a month or so.  I thought it would have ramped up by now to support the orders Ford claims to have and the sales goals Farley has committed.

[jpd80]

1 hour ago, slemke said:

2025 is only 3 years away.  I have my doubts about Ford having the production capability to support it.  Production of lightning is still 2k a month or so.  I thought it would have ramped up by now to support the orders Ford claims to have and the sales goals Farley has committed.

Actually, it’s two years and a couple of months,,,

[Rangers09]

19 hours ago, rperez817 said:

Based on the current growth rate it won't be long after the midpoint of this decade that F-150 ICE buyers will switch en masse to Lightning. The only notable constraint is Ford's ability to produce enough Lightnings to meet demand now and in the future. Blue Oval City (among other capital investments at Ford) should address that though.  

 

Highly unlikely that F-150 buyers will move "En Masse" that quickly, for a couple of reasons.

 

Locally, many of the F-150 owners haul small/medium RV trailers and other types of work trailers. Need to address the lack of range issues before those of us that use trucks for towing can even consider a BEV. Production is a huge issue, as our local dealer had over 150 orders, but only expects 10% of them to be received.

[jpd80]

2 hours ago, Rangers09 said:

 

Highly unlikely that F-150 buyers will move "En Masse" that quickly, for a couple of reasons.

 

Locally, many of the F-150 owners haul small/medium RV trailers and other types of work trailers. Need to address the lack of range issues before those of us that use trucks for towing can even consider a BEV. Production is a huge issue, as our local dealer had over 150 orders, but only expects 10% of them to be received.

Well said,

Ford has to show that it can build Lightning in decent volume, the issue as mentioned is that suppliers are struggling to match Ford massive ramp up plans for Lightning, shoot they can’t even deliver all the ICEs that customers are ordering. Next Gen BEV F150 may be better suited to replacing more ICE F150 sales but I suspect that ICE buyers are pretty comfortable with Ford’s current offering and the hybrid/Powerboost option give a level of electrification that can coexist with ICE.

 

At bottom of this, I suspect that Ford was going to use Lightning to increase F150 total sales but somewhere in Farley’s mind, EV F150 has became a replacement vehicle for F150 gas buyers….I’m not sure that’s the case but higher gas prices and limited production makes an interesting mix of factors..

[rperez817]

40 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

somewhere in Farley’s mind, EV F150 has became a replacement vehicle for F150 gas buyers….I’m not sure that’s the case but higher gas prices and limited production makes an interesting mix of factors..

 

Not just Farley's mind, but across the various teams at Ford involved in the F-150 Lightning product design and launch. They had 2 simultaneous goals for F-150 Lightning.

1. Build a great pickup truck, the best F-150 to date
2. Build a great BEV

Of course, Ford achieved both goals, which is why it's both an effective replacement vehicle for existing ICE F-150 owners and buyers as well as an appealing product for consumers who haven't previously owned a pickup truck from any brand.

 

Motor Trend said it best.

Ford absolutely had to get its first-ever electric truck right, and with the 2022 Ford F-150 Lightning, it damn well did.

No joke: The Lightning is one of the most important pickup trucks—vehicles, really—in history. Forget early adopters, environmentalists, and technophiles. This truck has to convince construction workers, farmers, ranchers, surveyors, and everyday truck fans that electric pickups aren't just viable but desirable. That an EV truck not only can do the work but also do it better. It does that.

To get to brass tacks, the Lightning is the best-driving, best-riding, and best-handling F-150 you can buy.

 

Production and supply chain issues as Rangers09 mentioned represent the biggest hurdle Ford has at this juncture with delivering F-150 Lightnings to every customer who wants to buy one. 

[jpd80]

22 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

 

Not just Farley's mind, but across the various teams at Ford involved in the F-150 Lightning product design and launch. They had 2 simultaneous goals for F-150 Lightning.

1. Build a great pickup truck, the best F-150 to date
2. Build a great BEV

Of course, Ford achieved both goals, which is why it's both an effective replacement vehicle for existing ICE F-150 owners and buyers as well as an appealing product for consumers who haven't previously owned a pickup truck from any brand.
 

While I agree with what you’re saying, the point is not whether Ford built a great BEV F150 or not, it’s how many existing buyers are ready to swap versus how many “new” buyers are buying their first EV F150. At the moment, it would seem that Ford has an influx of fresh buyers to grow over all sales and only about 30% of orders are existing F150 buyers.

The bigger interest will be in the next two years when Ford begins taking orders for next Gen F150 EV.  Ford has basically two years to get its supplier issues and production house in order and convince more buyers to purchase the new EV F150. So far, ther is no indication that the majority of current F150 gas buyers will be trading in their vehicles for an EV F150. Equally, we’re in weird times with heavy restrictions on all production, so no clear path forward yet….

 

 

22 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

Motor Trend said it best.

 

 

 

Production and supply chain issues as Rangers09 mentioned represent the biggest hurdle Ford has at this juncture with delivering F-150 Lightnings to every customer who wants to buy one. 

 

[silvrsvt]

Maybe in another 5-7 years it might be the case, but given the supply chain issues that are still hurting them and don't seem to be improving, I don't see a large amount of BEV F-150s replacing a significant chunk of F-150 sales. 

[Trader 10]

48 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

Maybe in another 5-7 years it might be the case, but given the supply chain issues that are still hurting them and don't seem to be improving, I don't see a large amount of BEV F-150s replacing a significant chunk of F-150 sales. 

I think the biggest hurdle for the Lightning will be cost. Ford just announced another $5000 price increase for the Pro model - it now starts at $52K. An extended range XLT stickers at $81K! We’re not going to see mass adoption at those price levels. 

[Bob Rosadini]

Per R'817's post ,no doubt it is a great vehicle- as supported by the MT piece...that's b y the way a miracle!

But as to the  commercial issue from what I  have read the range when loaded (towing) is in a word terrible.  And "terrible" in the sense it will be a while before charging stations are convenient-to the degree that poor mileage  under load will be less of an issue IMO. 

 

I  saw a piece today that said there are almost as many charging stations in NYC today as there are gas stations.  Jump on 87 and head for the Canadian border, different story.

[akirby]

39 minutes ago, Bob Rosadini said:

Per R'817's post ,no doubt it is a great vehicle- as supported by the MT piece...that's b y the way a miracle!

But as to the  commercial issue from what I  have read the range when loaded (towing) is in a word terrible.  And "terrible" in the sense it will be a while before charging stations are convenient-to the degree that poor mileage  under load will be less of an issue IMO. 

If you need to tow heavy loads long distances, this is not the vehicle for you.  Not sure why that has to be repeated over and over.

[rperez817]

43 minutes ago, akirby said:

If you need to tow heavy loads long distances, this is not the vehicle for you.  

 

That's the case for a subset of that usage scenario now, but ongoing development of EV fast charging infrastructure and of trailer self-propulsion technology means that things will rapidly evolve in the next few years. By the time 2nd gen F-150 Lightning is production ready, "towing heavy loads long distances" will be something that truck can accomplish as well or better than any comparable ICE powered F-150.

Edited October 6, 2022 by rperez817

[silvrsvt]

10 hours ago, Trader 10 said:

I think the biggest hurdle for the Lightning will be cost. Ford just announced another $5000 price increase for the Pro model - it now starts at $52K. An extended range XLT stickers at $81K! We’re not going to see mass adoption at those price levels. 

 

I think that is going to be the biggest issue that is going to have be nailed down-getting material costs under control so they are more stable

 

9 hours ago, akirby said:

If you need to tow heavy loads long distances, this is not the vehicle for you.  Not sure why that has to be repeated over and over.

 

The issue is that people don't like change and they want everything to work exactly like it did before, even if they never used it. People also use extreme case scenarios to poo poo on anything new, but once again never use that said feature. 

 

Some mindset changes are needed with BEVs and some people are going to fight it tooth and nail because they refuse to open their mind about things and look critically at things and well the internet just makes it worse

 

[akirby]

2 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

Some mindset changes are needed with BEVs and some people are going to fight it tooth and nail because they refuse to open their mind about things and look critically at things and well the internet just makes it worse

 

This is the fallacy of people saying we can go 100% BEV right now or that BEVs work for ng and everybody.  They don’t but that doesn’t mean they don’t work fine for a lot of people and a lot of use cases.  As usual the answer is in between the two extremes.

[silvrsvt]

1 hour ago, akirby said:

This is the fallacy of people saying we can go 100% BEV right now or that BEVs work for ng and everybody.  They don’t but that doesn’t mean they don’t work fine for a lot of people and a lot of use cases.  As usual the answer is in between the two extremes.

 

No there is a lot of people I'm "friends" with on social media and the amount of disinformation being spread out there is off the charts. 

I also get that the answer is often in between what is promised and doubters are saying, but I'm just tired of the stupidity 

[rperez817]

4 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

Some mindset changes are needed with BEVs and some people are going to fight it tooth and nail because they refuse to open their mind about things and look critically at things and well the internet just makes it worse

 

The important thing for Ford is that the company's own mindset has changed for the better. Ford is now committed to an all-electric future. Jim Farley is putting into practice his predecessor Jim Hackett's directive to get away from "straddling the old and new worlds" of the automotive industry. The construction of Blue Oval City on schedule (maybe even ahead of schedule) is a great example of this new mindset in practice.

 

Main goals for Ford at this point.

1. Resolve as much as possible the production and supply chain issues that are preventing the company from meeting demand for its BEV products
2. For Model E division, continue the growth trajectory that has already made Ford the #2 BEV brand in the U.S. market
3. For Blue division, ruthlessly cut costs and improve operational efficiencies in preparation for eventual phase out and perhaps sale to private equity firms
4. Move internal company milestones for a 100% ZEV product lineup sooner as new production facilities like BOC commence operation
5. Support government initiatives designed to increase BEV adoption

 

 

[Bob Rosadini]

13 hours ago, akirby said:

If you need to tow heavy loads long distances, this is not the vehicle for you.  Not sure why that has to be repeated over and over.

 

No argument....just  read all the posts  here where this issue is NOT addressed- also the posts where others do address this concern. 

 

"It is the best thing since canned beer".  I didn't read the MT article but in all the glowing statements was there  any "word  to  the wise about" about performance-in terms of extended use at  high loads?  I  don't think so.  And a lot of these trucks are service vehicles-often assigned to a tech/mechanic who  takes the  truck  home.  Gets home after a long trip and an hour later gets a  hot call...back on the road again.  And how many hours of charge time has he had?

 

It is a great truck,  no argument.  I ( and others here) have pointed out this shortcoming.  Best way  to ruin a rep is to put a new product into a service for which it is really not intended.

 

IMO too many  people only hear what they  want to hear.   

 

 

 

[tarheels23]

18 hours ago, jpd80 said:

While I agree with what you’re saying, the point is not whether Ford built a great BEV F150 or not, it’s how many existing buyers are ready to swap versus how many “new” buyers are buying their first EV F150. At the moment, it would seem that Ford has an influx of fresh buyers to grow over all sales and only about 30% of orders are existing F150 buyers.

The bigger interest will be in the next two years when Ford begins taking orders for next Gen F150 EV.  Ford has basically two years to get its supplier issues and production house in order and convince more buyers to purchase the new EV F150. So far, ther is no indication that the majority of current F150 gas buyers will be trading in their vehicles for an EV F150. Equally, we’re in weird times with heavy restrictions on all production, so no clear path forward yet….

 

 

 

this argument about buyers will not buy the Lightning is the same argument against EcoBoost, when the F150 owners find out about the long-term cost savings in maintenance they will certainly be happy to get one IMHO.

Edited October 6, 2022 by tarheels23
spelling and add IMHO

[tarheels23]

2 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

 

No there is a lot of people I'm "friends" with on social media and the amount of disinformation being spread out there is off the charts. 

I also get that the answer is often in between what is promised and doubters are saying, but I'm just tired of the stupidity 

I notice you had/have a 2010 Fusion Hybrid.  O have a 2013 C-Max SEL hybrid and getting over 50 MPG today with 106K+ miles, I do drive to get best MPG.  How did/do you like the Fusion?

[Bob Rosadini]

23 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

 

The important thing for Ford is that the company's own mindset has changed for the better. Ford is now committed to an all-electric future. Jim Farley is putting into practice his predecessor Jim Hackett's directive to get away from "straddling the old and new worlds" of the automotive industry. The construction of Blue Oval City on schedule (maybe even ahead of schedule) is a great example of this new mindset in practice.

 

Main goals for Ford at this point.

1. Resolve as much as possible the production and supply chain issues that are preventing the company from meeting demand for its BEV products
2. For Model E division, continue the growth trajectory that has already made Ford the #2 BEV brand in the U.S. market
3. For Blue division, ruthlessly cut costs and improve operational efficiencies in preparation for eventual phase out and perhaps sale to private equity firms
4. Move internal company milestones for a 100% ZEV product lineup sooner as new production facilities like BOC commence operation
5. Support government initiatives designed to increase BEV adoption

 

 

 

You missed a huge one....how about improving quality and stop making headlines with the newest recall.

No  5?  Not with my tax dollars please.  I'm one of the unlucky ones faced with my annual RMD (Required Minimum Distribution).  I say "unlucky"-perhaps I guess I was lucky worked my ass off and saved for 44 years and that puts me in the situation I'm in with a big RMD.

But when I look at the subsidies devoted to EV's, with NO thought where electricity is generated I shake my head.  As I've said.."In due time but at a measured pace."

 

Farley?  As long as he gets good press that is all that matters.  And all the EV hype gives  him plenty of that...although I still have too many shares that I paid over 20 for.

 

And while I'm on a rant, read on Opinion page in WSJ yesterday .."The Best Defense Against the Energy Weapon: Big Oil".by William Magnuson.  The byline..."In the 1973-74 embargo corporations stepped up to coordinate supply and minimize disruption."   A positive piece about what "Big Oil" did to save our ass.  That very big oil that our president has declared war on.  But have no fear, the mid terms are near and with Opec  flipping us the bird once again, Joe senses what is in the wind...problem solved-hit the strategic reserve again.  Problem solved.

I better be careful..don't want to  be banned after 23 yers on this site?

[tarheels23]

24 minutes ago, Bob Rosadini said:

 

You missed a huge one....how about improving quality and stop making headlines with the newest recall.

No  5?  Not with my tax dollars please.  I'm one of the unlucky ones faced with my annual RMD (Required Minimum Distribution).  I say "unlucky"-perhaps I guess I was lucky worked my ass off and saved for 44 years and that puts me in the situation I'm in with a big RMD.

But when I look at the subsidies devoted to EV's, with NO thought where electricity is generated I shake my head.  As I've said.."In due time but at a measured pace."

 

Farley?  As long as he gets good press that is all that matters.  And all the EV hype gives  him plenty of that...although I still have too many shares that I paid over 20 for.

 

And while I'm on a rant, read on Opinion page in WSJ yesterday .."The Best Defense Against the Energy Weapon: Big Oil".by William Magnuson.  The byline..."In the 1973-74 embargo corporations stepped up to coordinate supply and minimize disruption."   A positive piece about what "Big Oil" did to save our ass.  That very big oil that our president has declared war on.  But have no fear, the mid terms are near and with Opec  flipping us the bird once again, Joe senses what is in the wind...problem solved-hit the strategic reserve again.  Problem solved.

I better be careful..don't want to  be banned after 23 yers on this site?

All good points but I'm not certain that Big Oil did what they did to save our azes, maybe it was to stay in business and profits, which f course is the purpose of any business.