2023 Super Duty Orders & Discussion

[akirby]

Ford sells 70k F series trucks every month and people still say they can’t make any trucks.

 

They just can’t make your truck either due to dealer allocation and scheduling or parts shortages.  That doesn’t mean they’re not making anything.

[FordVictim2023]

50 minutes ago, akirby said:

Ford sells 70k F series trucks every month and people still say they can’t make any trucks.

 

They just can’t make your truck either due to dealer allocation and scheduling or parts shortages.  That doesn’t mean they’re not making anything.

 

1) When they do make something, it isn't always what was ordered or what you used to be able to go to the dealership and buy onsite.

2) Last year Ford averaged 54K F series trucks a month and in 2023 they are averaging 64K. In 2018 they averaged 76K. So Ford's average sales production is down 15-28%.
 https://fordauthority.com/fmc/ford-motor-company-sales-numbers/ford-sales-numbers/ford-f-series-sales-numbers/

[HotRunrGuy]

1 hour ago, akirby said:

Ford sells 70k F series trucks every month and people still say they can’t make any trucks.

 

 

Is your data source different than FA's?  I count only 9 times they hit 70K in the last 3-1/2 years.

 

HRG

[Yankst28]

It would be interesting to see only HD sales. A lot of those numbers from 150 sales

[Mags10]

2 hours ago, Yankst28 said:

It would be interesting to see only HD sales. A lot of those numbers from 150 sales

I’ll second that curiosity.  My wife will argue they are focusing too many resources on the Lightning.

[akirby]

5 hours ago, HotRunrGuy said:

 

Is your data source different than FA's?  I count only 9 times they hit 70K in the last 3-1/2 years.

 

HRG

I was only talking about the last few months.  The point is statements like they can’t build trucks is stupid and incorrect.

[ImmortalJman]

I agree with akirby. Demand is simply outpacing supply for Ford. Chevy, GMC and to some extent Ram trucks don't have the same demand, therefore they are more available.

[Yankst28]

I don’t know about your areas but in New York I’m seeing way more 24 chevys and gmc’s on the road then fords. Ram I’d agree with, demand isn’t there maybe because their prices are so stupid currently. Every ram dealership has crazy amounts of half tons and HDs just sitting in the lots and don’t see many on the roads. But the demand for Chevys and GMCs plus the availability of them is making them a very popular truck. 

[akirby]

In some cases the dealer is the holdup because they have a lot of other orders ahead of you in the queue.  In other cases they just can’t get enough parts for certain models and builds.

 

It would be more correct to simply say the dealer can’t get me the truck I want.

 

There is no lack of demand on the GMs they’re going strong but they’re also dealing with parts shortages.

[Mags10]

1 hour ago, akirby said:

In some cases the dealer is the holdup because they have a lot of other orders ahead of you in the queue.  In other cases they just can’t get enough parts for certain models and builds.

 

It would be more correct to simply say the dealer can’t get me the truck I want.

 

There is no lack of demand on the GMs they’re going strong but they’re also dealing with parts shortages.

Let’s look at the sales numbers going back to 2017, because they reveal why there is so much aggravation with Ford by many on here, including me.  Dealers would sell trucks if they could get them, they aren’t the problem.  Data is from Motrolix.

I’m going to combine the GM brands since they are the same truck except for a grille and badging.

 

2017 to 2019 was the boom time for Ford.  Let’s round the numbers below off to an average of 900,000 trucks per year.

2017 - 896764 units

2018 - 909330 units

2019 - 896526 units

GM trucks during that time were pretty consistent as well.  I’ll go with an average of 805,000 trucks per year.

2017 - 803807 units

2018 - 805135 units

2019 - 807923 units

 

Now let’s look at the Covid years.

In 2020, Ford sold 787422 trucks, or about 113000 less than the prior 3 year average, whereas GM sold 847110, over 40000 more than their 3 year average.

 

In 2021, Ford sold 726004 trucks, or 174000 less that the ‘17-‘19 average, whereas GM sold 768689, or about 36000 less than their ‘17-‘19 average.

 

2022 is the staggering year.  Ford sold 653957 trucks, or 246000 less, whereas GM sold 764771, or 40000 less.

 

For 2023, let’s double the first 6 months for a rough projection of a yearly number.

Ford is on track to sell 765000 trucks, or 135000 less than the ‘17-‘19 average, whereas GM is on track to sell 822000 trucks, or 17000 more than their ‘17-‘19 average.

 

The moral here is GM navigated the “supply chain” issues incredibly better than Ford.  Ford went off the rails, and hasn’t recovered yet.  This should cause management to do a serious introspective look, and if they don’t see a problem, they aren't being intellectually honest.  This would be a fantastic case study for an MBA student somewhere.

It’s time to stop blaming the supply chain, stop blaming dealers, and stop telling your customers to “shut up and wait.”

[akirby]

10 minutes ago, Mags10 said:

Let’s look at the sales numbers going back to 2017, because they reveal why there is so much aggravation with Ford by many on here, including me.  Dealers would sell trucks if they could get them, they aren’t the problem.  Data is from Motrolix.

I’m going to combine the GM brands since they are the same truck except for a grille and badging.

 

2017 to 2019 was the boom time for Ford.  Let’s round the numbers below off to an average of 900,000 trucks per year.

2017 - 896764 units

2018 - 909330 units

2019 - 896526 units

GM trucks during that time were pretty consistent as well.  I’ll go with an average of 805,000 trucks per year.

2017 - 803807 units

2018 - 805135 units

2019 - 807923 units

 

Now let’s look at the Covid years.

In 2020, Ford sold 787422 trucks, or about 113000 less than the prior 3 year average, whereas GM sold 847110, over 40000 more than their 3 year average.

 

In 2021, Ford sold 726004 trucks, or 174000 less that the ‘17-‘19 average, whereas GM sold 768689, or about 36000 less than their ‘17-‘19 average.

 

2022 is the staggering year.  Ford sold 653957 trucks, or 246000 less, whereas GM sold 764771, or 40000 less.

 

For 2023, let’s double the first 6 months for a rough projection of a yearly number.

Ford is on track to sell 765000 trucks, or 135000 less than the ‘17-‘19 average, whereas GM is on track to sell 822000 trucks, or 17000 more than their ‘17-‘19 average.

 

The moral here is GM navigated the “supply chain” issues incredibly better than Ford.  Ford went off the rails, and hasn’t recovered yet.  This should cause management to do a serious introspective look, and if they don’t see a problem, they aren't being intellectually honest.  This would be a fantastic case study for an MBA student somewhere.

It’s time to stop blaming the supply chain, stop blaming dealers, and stop telling your customers to “shut up and wait.”

 

 

 

 

Ford had a fire in 2020 at their semiconductor supplier in Japan - that didn’t affect other mfrs.  

 

The dealer’s order bank and queue absolutely affects whether a specific buyer can get their specific truck in a timely fashion. It’s only one cause but it’s legitimate in some cases.  
 

Where did we say Ford wasn’t still having issues?  Of course they are. But GM removed options just like Ford.  And I don’t have the data but I’d be willing to bet that Ford’s ATPs are higher than GM because Ford prioritized higher trims whereas GM built cheaper trucks.

 

There is no argument that Ford is having continued and in some cases more severe supply chain problems than others, but that doesn’t translate to “they can’t build trucks” when they’re building and selling 50k-70k every month.  

[Melmore]

36 minutes ago, Mags10 said:

Let’s look at the sales numbers going back to 2017, because they reveal why there is so much aggravation with Ford by many on here, including me.  Dealers would sell trucks if they could get them, they aren’t the problem.  Data is from Motrolix.

I’m going to combine the GM brands since they are the same truck except for a grille and badging.

 

2017 to 2019 was the boom time for Ford.  Let’s round the numbers below off to an average of 900,000 trucks per year.

2017 - 896764 units

2018 - 909330 units

2019 - 896526 units

GM trucks during that time were pretty consistent as well.  I’ll go with an average of 805,000 trucks per year.

2017 - 803807 units

2018 - 805135 units

2019 - 807923 units

 

Now let’s look at the Covid years.

In 2020, Ford sold 787422 trucks, or about 113000 less than the prior 3 year average, whereas GM sold 847110, over 40000 more than their 3 year average.

 

In 2021, Ford sold 726004 trucks, or 174000 less that the ‘17-‘19 average, whereas GM sold 768689, or about 36000 less than their ‘17-‘19 average.

 

2022 is the staggering year.  Ford sold 653957 trucks, or 246000 less, whereas GM sold 764771, or 40000 less.

 

For 2023, let’s double the first 6 months for a rough projection of a yearly number.

Ford is on track to sell 765000 trucks, or 135000 less than the ‘17-‘19 average, whereas GM is on track to sell 822000 trucks, or 17000 more than their ‘17-‘19 average.

 

The moral here is GM navigated the “supply chain” issues incredibly better than Ford.  Ford went off the rails, and hasn’t recovered yet.  This should cause management to do a serious introspective look, and if they don’t see a problem, they aren't being intellectually honest.  This would be a fantastic case study for an MBA student somewhere.

It’s time to stop blaming the supply chain, stop blaming dealers, and stop telling your customers to “shut up and wait.”

I'm not so brand loyal I can't see what's going on right in front of me. Got another apology letter from Ford this morning on how bad they feel about not being able to make my truck. Why do people think 2024 will be any different than the last 2 years? What has changed inside Ford to suddenly be able to produce trucks? Time for me to jump ship 

[jarrsong]

BTW, on the YouTube channel this week Tim from Long McArthur said there WILL NOT be PCO's for 2023 Superduty's converting to 2024 and if you are not scheduled by the end of today, You need to cancel and get your 2024 order in. 

 

[Big_Daddy]

On 8/9/2023 at 12:37 PM, akirby said:

Ford sells 70k F series trucks every month and people still say they can’t make any trucks.

 

They just can’t make your truck either due to dealer allocation and scheduling or parts shortages.  That doesn’t mean they’re not making anything.

Why don’t you break that “F” series down for us by model amigo.

[ice-capades]

5 minutes ago, Big_Daddy said:

Why don’t you break that “F” series down for us by model amigo.

 

Because Ford doesn't make that information available as they only provide total F-Series sales and the numbers for the F-150 Lightning. 

[akirby]

47 minutes ago, Big_Daddy said:

Why don’t you break that “F” series down for us by model amigo.

Even if that info was available it doesn’t matter.  They are making and selling a LOT of trucks like they always have.  Supply constraints and dealer queues are delaying some specific builds for a long time.  Not sure why that’s hard to understand.

[Big_Daddy]

5 minutes ago, akirby said:

Even if that info was available it doesn’t matter.  They are making and selling a LOT of trucks like they always have.  Supply constraints and dealer queues are delaying some specific builds for a long time.  Not sure why that’s hard to understand.

Confusion, misdirection, obfuscation at its finest.

 

lemme get right on that 150 purchase to tow my mini ex and skid steer.

[akirby]

57 minutes ago, Big_Daddy said:

Confusion, misdirection, obfuscation at its finest.

 

lemme get right on that 150 purchase to tow my mini ex and skid steer.

Here are the production numbers but it doesn’t change the point.  We’ve already stipulated that some trucks can’t be built for multiple reasons including your F450.  
 

[Rangers09]

1 hour ago, akirby said:

Here are the production numbers but it doesn’t change the point.  We’ve already stipulated that some trucks can’t be built for multiple reasons including your F450.  
 

 

 

So true. Those of us that order F-450's need to be aware that for the past few years it has been the most challenging F-series build. The dealer has all the information and should be advising the customer why the order is unable to be selected for scheduling. My dealer certainly kept me informed throughout the lengthy delay.

[Big_Daddy]

Well I guess a blind squirrel finds an acorn every now and then.

I found a KR 450 1379 miles away that someone backed out on.  Driving up next week to trade the 2023 XLT in on it.

 

im still buying the 2024 I had reordered from my non produced 2023 order.

 

I should make a pretty penny on selling the low mileage 2023 one.

[Melmore]

The f450 I ordered in October looks like it will not be built. I ordered a 3500 high country dually in late June. That will be built aroundthe end of August. Ford dealer has been no help at all. Chevy dealer has kept in contact unlike the Ford dealer. Wth is wrong with Ford not being able to produce trucks? Seems like Chevy has same amount of chips in their trucks so that's no excuse. 

Edited August 15, 2023 by Melmore

[Pugnmat]

The dealer system as it stands is broken and outdated if the future is mostly orders vs lot shopping... Unfortunately, within the current system, you don't know you have a bad dealer until it's far too late.  Been there. Some dealers are better than others and the consumer is left hanging in those cases with no help, back up or even options from the manufacturer.  Just order another is the rule today. 

[jarrsong]

18 hours ago, Melmore said:

The f450 I ordered in October looks like it will not be built. I ordered a 3500 high country dually in late June. That will be built aroundthe end of August. Ford dealer has been no help at all. Chevy dealer has kept in contact unlike the Ford dealer. Wth is wrong with Ford not being able to produce trucks? Seems like Chevy has same amount of chips in their trucks so that's no excuse. 

Hope it works out for you. The F450 Superduty is in a different league than the 3500. Brakes, tires, Turning radius, rear diff. 

[akirby]

20 hours ago, Pugnmat said:

The dealer system as it stands is broken and outdated if the future is mostly orders vs lot shopping... Unfortunately, within the current system, you don't know you have a bad dealer until it's far too late.  Been there. Some dealers are better than others and the consumer is left hanging in those cases with no help, back up or even options from the manufacturer.  Just order another is the rule today. 

They tried that with Bronco but dealers hated it and a few like Grainger gamed the system by selling at or below cost and taking allocations from other dealers.

 

My solution to that is to allow the dealers to decide how much of their allocations go to retail orders.  If they want to keep 50% stock let them.  But if you choose to allow retail orders for some of your allocation then you agree to let Ford control the ordering and scheduling for those and you agree to fixed up front pricing (may or may not be MSRP but it’s fixed at order time and cannot be changed).  Knowing that, Ford can show you an estimated build week from multiple nearby dealers allowing you to pick the one that fits your timetable.  This allows the dealers to have stock sales but keeps the customer from getting backed up behind a hundred other orders unknowingly at a particular dealership.  And the dealership can’t pull shenanigans with the priorities.  Essentially it starts already scheduled.

[Monoman]

4 hours ago, akirby said:

They tried that with Bronco but dealers hated it and a few like Grainger gamed the system by selling at or below cost and taking allocations from other dealers.

 

My solution to that is to allow the dealers to decide how much of their allocations go to retail orders.  If they want to keep 50% stock let them.  But if you choose to allow retail orders for some of your allocation then you agree to let Ford control the ordering and scheduling for those and you agree to fixed up front pricing (may or may not be MSRP but it’s fixed at order time and cannot be changed).  Knowing that, Ford can show you an estimated build week from multiple nearby dealers allowing you to pick the one that fits your timetable.  This allows the dealers to have stock sales but keeps the customer from getting backed up behind a hundred other orders unknowingly at a particular dealership.  And the dealership can’t pull shenanigans with the priorities.  Essentially it starts already scheduled.

 

Disclaimer:  I have bought two vehicles from Granger.

 

I will take you at your word that Granger sold below cost but we all know you can't sustain a business that way so they figured something out.  It wasn't by upselling dealer addons or services.  Grange got their business by building a good reputation of selling vehicles at a low cost (during an inflated market) and providing good service.  No frills, no BS.   My local dealers, not so much.