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Toyota scrambles for EV reboot with eye on Tesla


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I decided to put this in the Ford discussion area because I think the issues being considered by Toyota are the same that Ford are considering (or should be).

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Toyota is considering a reboot of its electric vehicle strategy to better compete in a booming market it has been slow to enter, and has halted some work on existing EV projects, four people with knowledge of the still-developing plans told Reuters. 

A working group within Toyota has been charged with outlining plans by early next year for improvements to its existing EV platform or for a new architecture, the four individuals said.

In the meantime, Toyota has suspended work on some of the 30 EV projects announced in December.

The review was triggered in part by the realisation by some Toyota engineers and executives that Toyota was losing the factory cost war to Tesla Inc. on EVs, the sources said.

 

This part reminds me a bit of the news that the Mach E chassis is being abandoned in favor of a 'next gen' (GEII?) EV chassis

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As part of the review, Toyota is considering a successor to its EV-underpinning technology called e-TNGA, unveiled in 2019. That would allow Toyota to bring down costs, the people said.

Terashi's team is considering an option to prolong e-TNGA's usefulness by coupling it with new technologies, three of the sources said.

Terashi could also propose to retire e-TNGA more quickly and opt for an EV-dedicated platform engineered from the ground up. That could take roughly five years for new models, two of the sources said. "There is little time to waste," said one.

Toyota is working with suppliers and considering factory innovations to bring down costs like Tesla's Giga Press, a massive casting machine that has streamlined work in Tesla plants.

One area under review is a more comprehensive approach to an EV's thermal management - combining, for example, passenger air conditioning and electric powertrain temperature control - that Tesla has already mobilized, the sources said.

 

Much more in the article: https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/toyota-rethinks-electric-car-strategy?utm_source=daily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20221025&utm_content=article3-headline

 

Edited by Harley Lover
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2 hours ago, Harley Lover said:

I decided to put this in the Ford discussion area because I think the issues being considered by Toyota are the same that Ford are considering (or should be).

 

Thank you Harley Lover. Akio Toyoda and Jim Farley alike understand the how critical it is to develop totally different, BEV optimized platforms amid the ongoing automotive industry revolution. I think both executives have also embraced the truth that Blue Oval Forums member GrussGott mentioned on this site earlier this year regarding BEV manufacturing. 

 

On 2/13/2022 at 2:36 PM, GrussGott said:

Any auto manufacturer that doesn't build new BEV plants with completely different - vertically integrated - engineering & assembly won't be able to compete in cost or production and will die.

 

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1 hour ago, silvrsvt said:

The biggest issue with Toyota isn't they haven't even come out with a mainstream BEV product...at least Ford is marking in roads with the Mach E and Lightening, learning what works and what doesn't

 

Toyota has yet to dip its toe in the water. 

 

In the U.S. market at least, their initial effort if you exclude the very limited production RAV4 EV (1997-2003 and again 2012-2014) is bZ4X. The wheels fell off that effort, literally and figuratively. Toyota’s Fix for Self-Removing bZ4X Wheels Is Way More Involved Than You'd Expect (motortrend.com)

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The most telling argument against Toyota’s ev commitment is the BYD based Corolla, that is being done exactly because Toyota cannot compete on electrification costs, it and VW Group are in a big hole.

 

Speaking of VW, Ford should be running from MEB, that thing bleeds money, it’s expensive to build and not cost effective against Tesla. Ford should just stick with its own designs rather than buying a pack of German woe..

 

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51 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

Speaking of VW, Ford should be running from MEB, that thing bleeds money, it’s expensive to build and not cost effective against Tesla. Ford should just stick with its own designs rather than buying a pack of German woe..

 

I agree and it appears that Farley does too. It seems that he's going forward with the GE2 and TE1 BEV architecture for BEVs in North America instead of the MEB-based vehicles as in Europe.

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4 hours ago, jpd80 said:

The most telling argument against Toyota’s ev commitment is the BYD based Corolla, that is being done exactly because Toyota cannot compete on electrification costs, it and VW Group are in a big hole.

 

Speaking of VW, Ford should be running from MEB, that thing bleeds money, it’s expensive to build and not cost effective against Tesla. Ford should just stick with its own designs rather than buying a pack of German woe..

 

 

Toyota's lagging entry to EVs might have done itself an inadvertent favor - witness VW's early jump and now having to rework its plans and chassis as it comes to the realization that its costs and complexity (those go hand in hand) put it at a disadvantage versus Tesla. How much money have VW already burned on equipment and processes that aren't good enough to compete globally? Toyota might actually benefit in the sense that they (perhaps) have not spent nearly as much as VW on their EV program, and thus have the benefit of being later to the party and can learn from what is being done elsewhere (Tesla) in order to apply best practices (something that Toyota is very good at doing).

 

I wonder where GM/Ultium lie in this context? I don't trust their marketing of Ultium as world class, but I don't know enough to discount their claims either.

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7 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Speaking of VW, Ford should be running from MEB, that thing bleeds money, it’s expensive to build and not cost effective against Tesla. Ford should just stick with its own designs rather than buying a pack of German woe..

 

Just read this, looks like Ford are locked in on MEB (at least for for now): 

Quote

 Ford will stop building the Fiesta small car in Cologne, Germany, by next summer, a year earlier than planned. At the same time as Fiesta output stops, production of Ford's new Volkswagen-based all-electric crossover will begin, also a year earlier than planned.

"The electric car will be built in Cologne from summer 2023," a company source familiar with the plan told Automotive News Europe sister publication Automobilwoche.

The crossover will use VW Group's MEB electric platform that underpins the VW ID4, among other models from the group.

 

https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/ford-drop-fiesta-bring-forward-ev-launch?utm_source=daily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20221026&utm_content=hero-headline

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3 hours ago, Harley Lover said:

I wonder where GM/Ultium lie in this context? I don't trust their marketing of Ultium as world class, but I don't know enough to discount their claims either.

 

GM's marketing efforts involving Ultium may be lacking in some areas, but technologically Ultium is definitely world class and a huge competitive advantage for the company. GM is unique among incumbent automakers in avoiding the strategic mistake of trying to use ICE vehicle platforms as a basis for its current generation BEV. John McElroy from Autoline Daily talked about this earlier this year.

 

 

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1 hour ago, rperez817 said:

GM's marketing efforts involving Ultium may be lacking in some areas, but technologically Ultium is definitely world class and a huge competitive advantage for the company. GM is unique among incumbent automakers in avoiding the strategic mistake of trying to use ICE vehicle platforms as a basis for its current generation BEV. John McElroy from Autoline Daily talked about this earlier this year.

 

None of which addresses whether or not their processes and manufacturing are leading edge - as VW have now seemingly realized about their situation.. Is GM using their version of Tesla's gigapress? I doubt it. Having a bespoke EV chassis does not ensure world class cost structure, again as VW have apparently realized. GM 'engineering by press release' notwithstanding.

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4 hours ago, Harley Lover said:

 

Toyota's lagging entry to EVs might have done itself an inadvertent favor - witness VW's early jump and now having to rework its plans and chassis as it comes to the realization that its costs and complexity (those go hand in hand) put it at a disadvantage versus Tesla. How much money have VW already burned on equipment and processes that aren't good enough to compete globally? Toyota might actually benefit in the sense that they (perhaps) have not spent nearly as much as VW on their EV program, and thus have the benefit of being later to the party and can learn from what is being done elsewhere (Tesla) in order to apply best practices (something that Toyota is very good at doing).

 

I wonder where GM/Ultium lie in this context? I don't trust their marketing of Ultium as world class, but I don't know enough to discount their claims either.

The early cost for MEB was around $17 billion already sunk in before the new software was to be added ( not provided to Ford by the way). From memory, Ford committed to two vehicles with a maximum of 600,000 units over a five year period, that would be the Euro midsized utility and compact vehicles to be built a Cologne starting next year.

 

The flaws in early adopters like VW and MEB, VW, eTNGA and even GM Ultium, maybe Ford GE platform were

deficient in three areas:

1. The misconception that ICE construction was a copy paste over to BEVs (Tesla significantly faster build times)

2. That substituting a skateboard structure on otherwise unitary design would not increase build hours or costs

3. That rebranded existing Terniary battery tech is now struggling against lower cost LFP battery tech.

 

We don’t know about GM’s situation with Ultium because it hasn’t begun wholesale production but if LG has similar problems with Ultium production - it’s their pouch design that’s not folded. Everyone has had issues with LG battery manufacturing faults and contamination. I guess that’s the pain of early adopters, someone has to go first and experience those problems and overcome them. What they are finding is that build costs are much greater than a comparable ICE, almost or slightly more than double in several cases. 
 

Given that Tesla recently announced that the subcompact 2 build costs would be half that of 3 and Y ($20k vs$40k) using new processes to deliver a $25,000 entry price, that is going be big trouble for European competition. The new lower build cost techniques will filter through to evolved 3 and Y at some future points that again gap the competition.

Edited by jpd80
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1 hour ago, Harley Lover said:

None of which addresses whether or not their processes and manufacturing are leading edge - as VW have now seemingly realized about their situation.. Is GM using their version of Tesla's gigapress? I doubt it. Having a bespoke EV chassis does not ensure world class cost structure, again as VW have apparently realized. GM 'engineering by press release' notwithstanding.

 

Here is a technical overview of the components and processes associated with Ultium, from Motor Trend automotive technology specialist Frank Markus. GM’s Ultium Electric Car Platform Technology: Everything You Need to Know (motortrend.com)

 

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1 hour ago, jpd80 said:

The misconception that ICE construction was a copy paste over to BEVs (Tesla significantly faster build times)

 

Thank you jpd80, this misconception represents by far the biggest mistake that incumbent automakers made with BEV. For Toyota that mistake was e-TNGA. Seems like Toyota is getting the message that "totally different" is the standard operating procedure for becoming a leader in BEV design, manufacture, and sales.

 

Akio Toyoda once said "It is in Toyota's DNA that mistakes made once will not be repeated". I think the retirement of e-TNGA will come even more quickly than anyone expected. 

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1 hour ago, rperez817 said:

 

Thank you jpd80, this misconception represents by far the biggest mistake that incumbent automakers made with BEV. For Toyota that mistake was e-TNGA. Seems like Toyota is getting the message that "totally different" is the standard operating procedure for becoming a leader in BEV design, manufacture, and sales.

 

Akio Toyoda once said "It is in Toyota's DNA that mistakes made once will not be repeated". I think the retirement of e-TNGA will come even more quickly than anyone expected. 

The way I see it was that Toyota was developing fuel cell/hydrogen tech in parallel with BEV plans, that kind of each way bet leads to treating both strategies as extensions of existing manufacturing plans, not sure if it’s just cost cutting or a desire to evolve an existing design as an easier progression for workers and engineers. BEVs have advanced so quickly that the slow methodical roll out  as extensions of ICE is now redundant, that’s why the e-TNGA is now probably scrap, not advanced enough, too much cost and too long to build.

Edited by jpd80
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30 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

The way I see it was that Toyota was developing fuel cell/hydrogen tech in parallel with BEV plans, that kind of each way bet leads to treating both strategies as extensions of existing manufacturing plans, not sure if it’s just cost cutting or a desire to evolve an existing design as an easier progression for workers and engineers. BEVs have advanced so quickly that the slow methodical roll out  as extensions of ICE is now redundant, that’s why the e-TNGA is now probably scrap, not advanced enough, too much cost and too long to build.

 

I agree jpd80. Wonder if the $70 billion investment in electrification that Toyota announced last year will be reallocated? At that time, about 50% was targeted to BEV and the remainder to hybrids and FCEV. I wouldn't be surprised if Toyota dramatically ramps up the proportion going to BEV within the next 2 years, maybe as high as 90%?

 

 

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4 hours ago, Harley Lover said:


theyre probably locked into the initial commitment but can not extend that commitment beyond those if they choose.

 

2 hours ago, jpd80 said:

The early cost for MEB was around $17 billion already sunk in before the new software was to be added ( not provided to Ford by the way). From memory, Ford committed to two vehicles with a maximum of 600,000 units over a five year period, that would be the Euro midsized utility and compact vehicles to be built a Cologne starting next year.

 

The flaws in early adopters like VW and MEB, VW, eTNGA and even GM Ultium, maybe Ford GE platform were

deficient in three areas:

1. The misconception that ICE construction was a copy paste over to BEVs (Tesla significantly faster build times)

2. That substituting a skateboard structure on otherwise unitary design would not increase build hours or costs

3. That rebranded existing Terniary battery tech is now struggling against lower cost LFP battery tech.

 

We don’t know about GM’s situation with Ultium because it hasn’t begun wholesale production but if LG has similar problems with Ultium production - it’s their pouch design that’s not folded. Everyone has had issues with LG battery manufacturing faults and contamination. I guess that’s the pain of early adopters, someone has to go first and experience those problems and overcome them. What they are finding is that build costs are much greater than a comparable ICE, almost or slightly more than double in several cases. 
 

Given that Tesla recently announced that the subcompact 2 build costs would be half that of 3 and Y ($20k vs$40k) using new processes to deliver a $25,000 entry price, that is going be big trouble for European competition. The new lower build cost techniques will filter through to evolved 3 and Y at some future points that again gap the competition.

 

The same Tesla that struggled to get out their promised 35k 3?

ok…

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2 hours ago, jpd80 said:

What they are finding is that build costs are much greater than a comparable ICE, almost or slightly more than double in several cases. 

 

I don’t blame Toyota (or Honda and Nissan) if they are rethinking how to best move forward, and apparently others are struggling with high costs also.  Stellantis quote regarding European buyers being priced out of market by high BEV costs and lack of cheap ICE options is hard to ignore.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwinton/2022/08/21/accelerating-european-electric-car-sales-expected-but-doubts-persist/

 

 

In addition to high prices, electricity is in short supply, and costs have increased significantly.  Recommissioning many old nuclear plants won’t hurt decarbonization efforts, but bringing back old coal plants will.  As I understand it, governments have eased mandates due to energy crisis, so not surprising BEV sales have been adversely affected.

 

Short-term, affordable hybrids make more sense to me, so I can see why Toyota may be taking their time with BEV transition.  Criticism is likely coming more from environmental activist than buying public; and their opinions may not be mainstream. 

 

https://electrek.co/2022/09/30/toyota-hasnt-received-the-ev-memo-sticks-to-hybrid-strategy/

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1 hour ago, rmc523 said:

 

The same Tesla that struggled to get out their promised 35k 3?

ok…

The demand for the higher series 3s has basically ended any need for $36k base model sales.

Besides, with rises in costs, the build cost of 3 is now in the early  $40ks, so I can imagine everyone else’s EV competitors are way more expensive to build.

The story with the 2 is new manufacturing process that slashes costs compared to 3 and Y. So whatever Tesla has planned is going to take them to next level efficiency, those changes will no doubt find their way into future evolutions of 3 and Y.

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1 hour ago, Rick73 said:

 

I don’t blame Toyota (or Honda and Nissan) if they are rethinking how to best move forward, and apparently others are struggling with high costs also.  Stellantis quote regarding European buyers being priced out of market by high BEV costs and lack of cheap ICE options is hard to ignore.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwinton/2022/08/21/accelerating-european-electric-car-sales-expected-but-doubts-persist/

 

Yes, legacy brands rushing to EVs is like throwing up a lemonade stand and calling themselves a volume BEV producer, that has a lot of inherent risk, they don’t know what they don’t know. Many hard lessons being learned while Tesla is about to go next level cost saving to produce a $25k subcompact 2.

 

Quote

In addition to high prices, electricity is in short supply, and costs have increased significantly.  Recommissioning many old nuclear plants won’t hurt decarbonization efforts, but bringing back old coal plants will.  As I understand it, governments have eased mandates due to energy crisis, so not surprising BEV sales have been adversely affected.

 

Short-term, affordable hybrids make more sense to me, so I can see why Toyota may be taking their time with BEV transition.  Criticism is likely coming more from environmental activist than buying public; and their opinions may not be mainstream. 

 

https://electrek.co/2022/09/30/toyota-hasnt-received-the-ev-memo-sticks-to-hybrid-strategy/

Many states have increases renewable power as a percentage of power to the grid, some are at 60%. America power supply is slowly changing right before us. Not saying that there’s a cure all but China is showing that it’s renewable energy projects are covering most of the BEV growth in required recharging energy. 

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2 hours ago, T-dubz said:

Toyota needs to focus on their ev design more than anything. What they have rolled out so far looks terrible. It doesn’t matter what platform it’s on if it’s so ugly no one buys it.

And yet the Prius has been on sale for many years. Each design pushing the limits of weird.

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1 hour ago, jpd80 said:

Many states have increases renewable power as a percentage of power to the grid, some are at 60%. America power supply is slowly changing right before us. Not saying that there’s a cure all but China is showing that it’s renewable energy projects are covering most of the BEV growth in required recharging energy. 

 

We should be careful differentiating between reported “power” and “energy” because both sides of issue often use these terms interchangeably depending on which one supports their agenda best.  I sometimes misuse the terms myself due to carelessness, but never intentionally to mislead.  Anyway, I tend to look at benefits based on actual net contributions compared to other options, so rarely see solutions as straight forward as some claim.  China with many new coal power plants is a good example.

 

It is interesting that Ford also think hybrids play an important role, as mentioned by Ford Media Center on new Escape.  An affordable hybrid option under $2,000 contributes a lot more than an electric car that is unaffordable and thus never built.

 

“Ford is among the leading hybrid automakers in the U.S. because we understand that not all of our customers are ready to go all-electric,” said Zaski. “With two hybrid powertrain choices, customers can spend less time at the gas station and keep more money in their pockets.”

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