Toyota scrambles for EV reboot with eye on Tesla

[jpd80]

32 minutes ago, Rick73 said:

 

We should be careful differentiating between reported “power” and “energy” because both sides of issue often use these terms interchangeably depending on which one supports their agenda best.  I sometimes misuse the terms myself due to carelessness, but never intentionally to mislead.  Anyway, I tend to look at benefits based on actual net contributions compared to other options, so rarely see solutions as straight forward as some claim.  China with many new coal power plants is a good example.

 

It is interesting that Ford also think hybrids play an important role, as mentioned by Ford Media Center on new Escape.  An affordable hybrid option under $2,000 contributes a lot more than an electric car that is unaffordable and thus never built.

 

“Ford is among the leading hybrid automakers in the U.S. because we understand that not all of our customers are ready to go all-electric,” said Zaski. “With two hybrid powertrain choices, customers can spend less time at the gas station and keep more money in their pockets.”

Exactly, hybrids play an important role in electrification, they give gas buyers their first taste of how electrification can benefit them without any of the drawbacks of a BEV. Toyota knows this and leveraged it for decades but surprisingly, never made a successful BEV.

Perhaps that was mindset…

 

And yes, Ford went through many of the soul searching that Toyota is doing presently and as tech evolves the answers change, it’s that flexibility many desire to avoid terrible blind alleys. Toyota has deep pockets, they will correct and relaunch their plans just like Ford did.
 

It’s just fun to watch CEOs contort their narrative……they’re like ducks, calm on the surface and paddling furiously below the waterline

[tarheels23]

On 10/26/2022 at 3:39 PM, jpd80 said:

Exactly, hybrids play an important role in electrification, they give gas buyers their first taste of how electrification can benefit them without any of the drawbacks of a BEV. Toyota knows this and leveraged it for decades but surprisingly, never made a successful BEV.

Perhaps that was mindset…

 

And yes, Ford went through many of the soul searching that Toyota is doing presently and as tech evolves the answers change, it’s that flexibility many desire to avoid terrible blind alleys. Toyota has deep pockets, they will correct and relaunch their plans just like Ford did.
 

It’s just fun to watch CEOs contort their narrative……they’re like ducks, calm on the surface and paddling furiously below the waterline

my 2013 C-Max hybrid SEL with 106K averaging over 50MPG is great and I expect it to take me to my 1st BEV F which I hope is another small CUV.

[Rick73]

18 hours ago, tarheels23 said:

my 2013 C-Max hybrid SEL with 106K averaging over 50MPG is great and I expect it to take me to my 1st BEV F which I hope is another small CUV.

 

That’s quite impressive, and not only for what you have accomplished reducing GHGs, but also what it represents in potential cost savings for drivers who can’t necessarily charge at home most of the time.  With average BEV today getting about 3 miles per kWh, charging cost at $0.32 per kWh works out higher than if getting 50 MPG on regular gas (based on prices in my area).  I can justify a BEV for local driving, but to replace vehicle I use on long road trips, a hybrid seems a better choice.

 

 

[jpd80]

23 hours ago, tarheels23 said:

my 2013 C-Max hybrid SEL with 106K averaging over 50MPG is great and I expect it to take me to my 1st BEV F which I hope is another small CUV.

Amazing, thank you for sharing.

I remember the bad press the C-Max got when people started complaining about not getting the kind of fuel economy expected. So glad that your lived experience shows how good hybrids can be.

[rperez817]

On 10/26/2022 at 3:39 PM, jpd80 said:

Toyota has deep pockets, they will correct and relaunch their plans just like Ford did.
 

It’s just fun to watch CEOs contort their narrative……they’re like ducks, calm on the surface and paddling furiously below the waterline

 

Maybe Akio Toyoda did paddle furiously below the waterline and finally got the message that 100% electric vehicles is one component of the automotive's industry's entire future? Or, as Steve Hanley of CleanTechnica wrote last year, Toyoda San "looked down the road" and now realizes it's better for Toyota to adapt than to die? Akio Toyoda Would Rather Die Than Adapt - CleanTechnica

 

Quote

Akio Toyoda, you have been weighed in the balance and found wanting. The only constant in life is change and those who fail (or refuse) to recognize that fact are doomed to be swept away by the incoming tide of new ideas. You can weep and wail and gnash your teeth while wishing for a return to the good old days, but it won’t do you any good. Adapt or die. The choice is yours. There are no guarantees that the world’s largest automaker will still be around in 2050, or 2030 for that matter.

Effective leaders recognize change and embrace it. Failed leaders are always looking to the past and are likely to get run over by change. Bill Watterson is the brilliant cartoonist who created Calvin and Hobbes. On November 21, 1990, he penned a cartoon in which Calvin says , “Live for the moment is my motto. You never know how long you’ve got. You could step into the road tomorrow and — WHAM! — you get hit by a cement truck. Then you’d be sorry you put off your pleasures. That’s why I say live for the moment.” Then he asks Hobbbes, “What’s your motto?” To which Hobbes replies, “Look down the road.” Someone should share that bit of wisdom with Toyoda-san.

Edited November 1, 2022 by rperez817

[Rick73]

4 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

Maybe Akio Toyoda did paddle furiously below the waterline and finally got the message that 100% electric vehicles is one component of the automotive's industry's entire future? Or, as Steve Hanley of CleanTechnica wrote last year, Toyoda San "looked down the road" and now realizes it's better for Toyota to adapt than to die? Akio Toyoda Would Rather Die Than Adapt - CleanTechnica

 

 

Just because the future is inevitable, it doesn’t mean we have to rush to get there, does it?.  Most people want to enjoy what they have today and put off problems as long as possible; maybe hoping problems will disappear on their own.  Is Toyota that different?  Toyota’s  conservative business approach has led to success, so why change that practice now?  I expect they will adapt just fine, but in their own way and best interest.

 

Hanley makes strong argument but much is lost in his bias against ICE and assumption that BEV is the only solution that there will ever be.  It is likely correct, but who knows what we may not know yet?  

 

In Motor Trend’s list of 10 most fuel efficient hybrid cars, Toyota has 4 vehicles, all rated above 50 MPG Combined.  That’s significant reduction in GHGs, and as of today, cars that actually reduce GHGs more than some BEVs.  That begs the question, should auto industry priority be more on profitability or saving the planet?  Some people say both, but actions suggest that’s not reality.

 

Also, if every auto manufacturer ends up being a Tesla clone in the near future, what will happen to Tesla profits?  And will others want to replicate Tesla if or when profits are shrinking?  It’s doubtful Handley has all the answers, or is even aware of all the questions.

 

 

[rperez817]

42 minutes ago, Rick73 said:

Toyota’s  conservative business approach has led to success, so why change that practice now?  I expect they will adapt just fine, but in their own way and best interest.

 

I too think that Toyota will adapt just fine. As Toyoda himself said, "It is in Toyota's DNA that mistakes made once will not be repeated". As such, it's a good bet at this point that Toyota's massive strategic error regarding BEV won't result in the company heading into oblivion.

 

To Mr. Hanley's point in the CleanTechnica article, someone must have shared the wisdom from the November 21, 1990 Calvin and Hobbes cartoon with Akio Toyoda recently.

[bzcat]

In the auto industry, being a late comer is a normal and generally profitable strategy. For example, Ford followed Jeep Cherokee with Explorer and it turned out just fine. Ford also followed Toyota RAV4 with Escape and it has done reasonably well. 

 

The question is how late... you don't want to be irrelevant. You can make an argument that the latest Lincoln Continental came too late... after the luxury sedan market had already peaked and entered the sales freefall stage. It's a great product but maybe 5 years too late.

 

For Toyota and the EV question, they are not too late yet but there is a real risk they become irrelevant if they don't act fast. It takes 5 years to develop a new car from scratch give or take. Given how comically uncompetitive bz4X is, it clearly shows that Toyota is maybe a decade behind Tesla, and at least 5 years behind Hyundai, Ford, VW, and GM, the legacy OEM that are best prepared. You can probably bridge that 5 year gap with lots of money but it will be a tall order for Toyota to start from zero and catch up with Tesla by 2032. It seems unlikely. 

 

Some of you may question my characterization of Toyota as at "zero". I challenge you to take a closer look at bz4X and compare that with Ioniq5 or Mach E. Toyota's mindset is still at building "compliance" EV. They obviously didn't think this is a viable product otherwise they would not call it bz4X which is a complete disaster of a name. A properly designed and engineered Toyota EV should be called Prius... the fact that Toyota wasn't prepared to do that says a lot about where they are at. Hyundai and Ford are almost 3 years into the first generation of "real" EV... cars designed to sell on merit not to satisfy some Govt mandate. It will take a complete sea-change in organization and leadership for Toyota to deliver something different in 5 years. The besy case scenario for Toyota is to bring out a Prius EV by 2027 to replace the pathetic bz4X. But by 2027, Hyundai and Ford would be well onto the 2nd generation of Ioniq 5 and Mach E, plus all the other EVs they've been working on. This is an existential crisis for Toyota and a direct result of insulate leadership that clearly was out of touch with where the market was headed. 

Edited November 1, 2022 by bzcat

[rperez817]

2 hours ago, bzcat said:

For Toyota and the EV question, they are not too late yet but there is a real risk they become irrelevant if they don't act fast.

 

That's correct bzcat. As mentioned earlier, I think Toyota will act fast enough to adapt to the global automotive industry reality of 100% electric vehicles, though Toyota's status as the world's largest automaker will almost certainly be gone by 2030. 

 

The Electric Viking has a different take. He thinks it's too late for Toyota and that by 2030, the company will either be bankrupt or bailed out by the Japanese government.

 

 

[Trader 10]

2 hours ago, bzcat said:

In the auto industry, being a late comer is a normal and generally profitable strategy. For example, Ford followed Jeep Cherokee with Explorer and it turned out just fine. Ford also followed Toyota RAV4 with Escape and it has done reasonably well. 

 

The question is how late... you don't want to be irrelevant. You can make an argument that the latest Lincoln Continental came too late... after the luxury sedan market had already peaked and entered the sales freefall stage. It's a great product but maybe 5 years too late.

 

For Toyota and the EV question, they are not too late yet but there is a real risk they become irrelevant if they don't act fast. It takes 5 years to develop a new car from scratch give or take. Given how comically uncompetitive bz4X is, it clearly shows that Toyota is maybe a decade behind Tesla, and at least 5 years behind Hyundai, Ford, VW, and GM, the legacy OEM that are best prepared. You can probably bridge that 5 year gap with lots of money but it will be a tall order for Toyota to start from zero and catch up with Tesla by 2032. It seems unlikely. 

 

Some of you may question my characterization of Toyota as at "zero". I challenge you to take a closer look at bz4X and compare that with Ioniq5 or Mach E. Toyota's mindset is still at building "compliance" EV. They obviously didn't think this is a viable product otherwise they would not call it bz4X which is a complete disaster of a name. A properly designed and engineered Toyota EV should be called Prius... the fact that Toyota wasn't prepared to do that says a lot about where they are at. Hyundai and Ford are almost 3 years into the first generation of "real" EV... cars designed to sell on merit not to satisfy some Govt mandate. It will take a complete sea-change in organization and leadership for Toyota to deliver something different in 5 years. The besy case scenario for Toyota is to bring out a Prius EV by 2027 to replace the pathetic bz4X. But by 2027, Hyundai and Ford would be well onto the 2nd generation of Ioniq 5 and Mach E, plus all the other EVs they've been working on. This is an existential crisis for Toyota and a direct result of insulate leadership that clearly was out of touch with where the market was headed. 

BEVs aren’t rocket science. No reason a company with Toyotas resources can’t be matching the competitions 2nd generation models by 2027. 

[jpd80]

3 hours ago, Trader 10 said:

BEVs aren’t rocket science. No reason a company with Toyotas resources can’t be matching the competitions 2nd generation models by 2027. 

While BEVs wouldn’t seem to be rocket science, making profitable ones are and just electrifying an ICE platform just won’t work for Toyota’s suite of vehicles.

 

Remember when Ford and Toyota did a Joint Venture to develop an Electric Truck, Ford saw how un advanced Toyota’s work was an ended the JV, knowing that they, Ford would be feeding all the answers that Toyota didn’t have. Toyota still hasn’t learned a thing….
 

Equally, I think VW is just as clueless, spending $17 billion on MEB that is now proving uncompetitive in both performance/buyer appeal and profitability. IMO, Ford has more of a clue than the Germans simply because it hit the reset button sooner in 2017 and didn’t develop anything close to a $17 billion white elephant.

Edited November 2, 2022 by jpd80

[bzcat]

4 hours ago, Trader 10 said:

BEVs aren’t rocket science. No reason a company with Toyotas resources can’t be matching the competitions 2nd generation models by 2027. 

 

You are assuming Toyota has the resources to finance an all-out race to catch up. This is the problem for Toyota... they are starting so late and so far behind. They can, and they must spend a lot of money just to catch up but they won't have the luxury of using ICE profit to pay for the development of EV. It takes 5+ years to bring a new car to market but in that time, Toyota's ICE sales would have collapsed. It is already happening - sales of EV are now close to 20% in Europe and California and almost 30% in China... there is not going back. There is basically very little time left for Toyota to pivot and some auto industry analysis are starting to see the problem. Toyota literally have to spend double the money and do it in half of the time to have any hope of catching up.

 

The wheels on Toyota first EV bz4X is literally falling off and Toyota just said it doesn't plan to build it in volume until 2025. Let that sink in a bit... Toyota is not even going to attempt to compete in the EV market with their first gen EV until 2025 at the earliest when Ford will be about 2 years into the 2nd gen of F-150 Lightning. This means very little Toyota EV products will hit the market between now and 2027. Think about how many EV models Ford, GM, VW, Hyundai, Stellantis will push out between now and 2027? 

 

How is Toyota going to compete with Tesla or BYD? If the US market is 30-40% EV by 2027 that means Toyota's profit for the ICE business is probably headed to the toilets (too much supply for the demand). Replicate this in Europe and China where EV could by 60-70% of the sales by 2027.

 

Basically, Toyoda's risk averse thinking has place his company at huge risks. Waiting until 2027 to compete is not a safe bet. It is actually very very risky. 

 

It's not too late to pivot but the clock is ticking. 

[jpd80]

39 minutes ago, bzcat said:

 

You are assuming Toyota has the resources to finance an all-out race to catch up. This is the problem for Toyota... they are starting so late and so far behind. They can, and they must spend a lot of money just to catch up but they won't have the luxury of using ICE profit to pay for the development of EV. It takes 5+ years to bring a new car to market but in that time, Toyota's ICE sales would have collapsed. It is already happening - sales of EV are now close to 20% in Europe and California and almost 30% in China... there is not going back. There is basically very little time left for Toyota to pivot and some auto industry analysis are starting to see the problem. Toyota literally have to spend double the money and do it in half of the time to have any hope of catching up.

 

The wheels on Toyota first EV bz4X is literally falling off and Toyota just said it doesn't plan to build it in volume until 2025. Let that sink in a bit... Toyota is not even going to attempt to compete in the EV market with their first gen EV until 2025 at the earliest when Ford will be about 2 years into the 2nd gen of F-150 Lightning. This means very little Toyota EV products will hit the market between now and 2027. Think about how many EV models Ford, GM, VW, Hyundai, Stellantis will push out between now and 2027? 

 

How is Toyota going to compete with Tesla or BYD? If the US market is 30-40% EV by 2027 that means Toyota's profit for the ICE business is probably headed to the toilets (too much supply for the demand). Replicate this in Europe and China where EV could by 60-70% of the sales by 2027.

 

Basically, Toyoda's risk averse thinking has place his company at huge risks. Waiting until 2027 to compete is not a safe bet. It is actually very very risky. 

 

It's not too late to pivot but the clock is ticking. 

Honestly, having BYD produce the EV Corolla in China one of Toyota’s  best moves lately,

it gives them a competitive compact car that can be sold across many markets,

all without hitting the panic button. Big question is whether to do more vehicles…

 

[rperez817]

8 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Honestly, having BYD produce the EV Corolla in China one of Toyota’s  best moves lately,

it gives them a competitive compact car that can be sold across many markets,

all without hitting the panic button. Big question is whether to do more vehicles…

 

 

Are you referring to bZ3? That vehicle is for China only, and like other e-TNGA products, is not competitive with the best BEV globally.

 

[tarheels23]

On 10/29/2022 at 5:06 PM, jpd80 said:

Amazing, thank you for sharing.

I remember the bad press the C-Max got when people started complaining about not getting the kind of fuel economy expected. So glad that your lived experience shows how good hybrids can be.

just to be specific on the MPG, I do drive like it is a hybrid and I choose to get the best MPG's.  I typically drive not on Interstates but choose the shorter distances and slower speeds.  When I see a light turning red up the road I take my foot off the accelerator and coast and at the light I put in park and off the brake as when engaged it does pull power.  We mostly drive during the day and do not use the AC unless needed.  As a retired couple we are seldom in a hurry and we both watch the meeter to see how we do.

We are very pleased and when the noise about the MPG's came we did cash the 2 checks /f sent us.  ?

[jpd80]

7 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

Are you referring to bZ3? That vehicle is for China only, and like other e-TNGA products, is not competitive with the best BEV globally.

 

Toyota is intending to export this version of Corolla from China, e-TNGA based vehicles are not competitive with other brands, this gives Toyota a BEV Corolla that’s ready now until they can work through their own mess….

By the way, BYD is about to launch on big scale in Europe, so no doubt it will have its own vehicles occupying a lot of future sales there.

[Rick73]

Will Ford offer a small aerodynamic BEV sedan of similar size?  The reported BZ3 low Cd should help with actual highway driving range.

[silvrsvt]

12 hours ago, Rick73 said:

Will Ford offer a small aerodynamic BEV sedan of similar size?  The reported BZ3 low Cd should help with actual highway driving range.

 

Drag isn't really an issue till you hit 75 mph or higher. 

Just using an Escape as an example, you can vary about 2-3MPG from going 70 vs 75

Edited November 3, 2022 by silvrsvt

[Rick73]

On 11/3/2022 at 9:53 AM, silvrsvt said:

 

Drag isn't really an issue till you hit 75 mph or higher. 

Just using an Escape as an example, you can vary about 2-3MPG from going 70 vs 75

 

 

The claimed Toyota bZ3 Cd of 0.218 is in Tesla sedan range, which should extend highway driving distance compared to crossovers with similar battery capacity.  It also has lower frontal area compared to new crossovers like Nissan Ariya with a reported Cd of 0.297, so overall aero drag is reduced significantly.

 

Most BEVs already have plenty of range for city use, but for highway driving at normal 70~75 MPH, those with lower frontal area and Cd seem to perform best at extending driving range.  If crossovers require larger batteries than sedans, how will they be able to compete with sedans like Tesla 3 on price, everything else being similar?  BEV prices are so high, I just wonder if small sedans no larger than Tesla 3 or Toyota bZ3 won’t have significant advantage?

 

https://insideevs.com/news/490620/ariya-nissans-most-aerodynamic-crossover/

 

 

[silvrsvt]

1 hour ago, Rick73 said:

The claimed Toyota bZ3 Cd of 0.218 is in Tesla sedan range, which should extend highway driving distance compared to crossovers with similar battery capacity.  It also has lower frontal area compared to new crossovers like Nissan Ariya with a reported Cd of 0.297, so overall aero drag is reduced significantly.

 

Most BEVs already have plenty of range for city use, but for highway driving at normal 70~75 MPH, those with lower frontal area and Cd seem to perform best at extending driving range.  If crossovers require larger batteries than sedans, how will they be able to compete with sedans like Tesla 3 on price, everything else being similar?  BEV prices are so high, I just wonder if small sedans no larger than Tesla 3 or Toyota bZ3 won’t have significant advantage?

 

Here is a good article that goes into this more

https://www.edmunds.com/fuel-economy/improving-aerodynamics-to-boost-fuel-economy.html#:~:text="The same drag coefficient reduction,important part of the equation.

 

Quote

Volvo's Frasher says the force acting against a car by the air it moves is a function of:

 

Cd x Frontal Area x Density of Air x Speed SquaredSpeed clearly is an important part of the equation. At stop-and-go speeds, drag isn't a big deal, but the faster you go, the more it matters. At 70 mph, you've got four times the force working against your vehicle that you have at 35 mph.

 

To put Cd changes in perspective, Frasher put some numbers to a hypothetical sedan. Our imaginary car has a curb weight of 3,527 pounds, a Cd of 0.30, a frontal area of 23.7 square feet and 9 pounds of rolling resistance for every 1,000 pounds of weight.

 

According to Frasher, "If we put a gas-burning engine in this car, expect reasonable performance and drive it on a combined driving cycle, we can expect to get 23.8 mpg…. Add 10 percent to the drag coefficient, we'll now get 23.3 mpg…. Take 10 percent from the drag coefficient, we'll now get 24.3 mpg."
 

 

Edited November 7, 2022 by silvrsvt

[DeluxeStang]

On 10/26/2022 at 9:28 AM, T-dubz said:

Toyota needs to focus on their ev design more than anything. What they have rolled out so far looks terrible. It doesn’t matter what platform it’s on if it’s so ugly no one buys it.

The issue is Toyota/Lexus designers don't know when to put the pen down. I like how they go for some creative/unique looking lines, that's not a problem. I like when it looks like designers had fun sketching something. The issue is none of the lines are cohesive with one another. You'll have like soft, zig zag cool lines on the side, and then sharp, mostly straight, creases in the hood. It just doesn't flow. Look at the Avalon, a slightly generic, but mostly nice looking sedan from the side and rear. Then you get to the front, and it has this massive, overly agressive grille that not only looks bad, but doesn't gel with the rest of the car' character. It's a comfy cruiser, why does it have this super sporty looking grille on it? It's just odd. 

[DeluxeStang]

On 11/2/2022 at 8:18 PM, Rick73 said:

Will Ford offer a small aerodynamic BEV sedan of similar size?  The reported BZ3 low Cd should help with actual highway driving range.

Time will tell. I believe it was ExplorerDude who said ford was considering an affordable sedan offering if the economic outlook remained grim with high gas prices. Maybe not as a  BEV if they wanted to provide a more affordable offering, but the c2 platform could make a great basis for a hybrid sedan/hatchback. Maybe call it the escort or cortina. The c2 platform is already developed, so it would be more cost efficient, we know it's flexible, we know it's reliable. That would be my play if I was Ford's CEO trying to reenter the sedan space. That and offer a higher performance, aspirational sedan to compete at the higher level, maybe as an ev. 

[DeluxeStang]

On 10/28/2022 at 4:08 PM, tarheels23 said:

my 2013 C-Max hybrid SEL with 106K averaging over 50MPG is great and I expect it to take me to my 1st BEV F which I hope is another small CUV.

Great powertrain, I believe it's essentially the same one used in our maverick hybrid. Efficient, powerful enough, and offering legendary levels of reliability apparently. Overall, a fantastic setup. Our mav even in the cold and with some highway driving mixed in is averaging over 40 mpg during the break-in period. Personal best is about 62 mpg, regularly get close to, or over 50 mpg during short drives. Love it. 

[tarheels23]

4 hours ago, DeluxeStang said:

Great powertrain, I believe it's essentially the same one used in our maverick hybrid. Efficient, powerful enough, and offering legendary levels of reliability apparently. Overall, a fantastic setup. Our mav even in the cold and with some highway driving mixed in is averaging over 40 mpg during the break-in period. Personal best is about 62 mpg, regularly get close to, or over 50 mpg during short drives. Love it. 

thanks for the testimonial on the Maverick.  Surprised with the over 40 with the aerodynamics of the truck.  We love ours and only wish is that we had gotten the plugin.

[silvrsvt]

22 hours ago, DeluxeStang said:

Time will tell. I believe it was ExplorerDude who said ford was considering an affordable sedan offering if the economic outlook remained grim with high gas prices. Maybe not as a  BEV if they wanted to provide a more affordable offering, but the c2 platform could make a great basis for a hybrid sedan/hatchback. Maybe call it the escort or cortina. The c2 platform is already developed, so it would be more cost efficient, we know it's flexible, we know it's reliable. That would be my play if I was Ford's CEO trying to reenter the sedan space. That and offer a higher performance, aspirational sedan to compete at the higher level, maybe as an ev. 

what is the point of selling a product that makes no money in a crowded segment?

 

Ford would be better off bringing out the Puma in North America instead of another Sedan.