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Next gen Lincoln Nautilus for China and North America leaked


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3 hours ago, akirby said:


Dont forget there are at least two and probably 3 BEVs coming around the time Nautilus disappears.  But I’d love to see it stick around with a hybrid built here.

 

Planning to keep our 22 for a long time.


True regarding the BEVs but I think they need a gasser or at least hybrid as you say. 

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2 hours ago, sullynd said:

Looks like a very nice Buick. 

That may be intentional. Buick is in the same market space in the Middle Kingdom. China is the first tier market for both Buick and Lincoln now. If big ,black smiley grilles are what the primary market wants, that's what all markets get, or don't get at all.

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1 hour ago, Chrisgb said:

That may be intentional. Buick is in the same market space in the Middle Kingdom. China is the first tier market for both Buick and Lincoln now. If big ,black smiley grilles are what the primary market wants, that's what all markets get, or don't get at all.

Yep, Buick only exists because of the China market, where it is a top seller for GM and is seen as a very premium brand. You'll notice that many surveys that rank auto brands on things like reliability, quality, customer satisfaction, etc. include Buick in the Luxury category, which in the U.S. context doesn't really make sense.

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On 11/21/2022 at 6:36 AM, BigBendMatt said:

Hi there, was lurking and found that the front end of the new Nautilus looks a lot like this EV teaser from Lincoln in 2021. Could they be related? Maybe it’s the electrified version
 

https://fordauthority.com/2021/07/enhanced-lincoln-ev-teaser-image-reveals-zephyr-inspired-front-end/amp/

738C8EEC-E968-48F3-900C-11FADF9D5757.webp

 

Hmm

Edited by Willwll313wll
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5 hours ago, Chrisgb said:

That may be intentional. Buick is in the same market space in the Middle Kingdom. China is the first tier market for both Buick and Lincoln now. If big ,black smiley grilles are what the primary market wants, that's what all markets get, or don't get at all.

 

That's not really the case.

 

Buick is a mass market brand, competes with Ford, VW, Toyota, Hyundai, Honda in China. 

 

Lincoln's prices are higher in China as it is positioned as upscale premium luxury brand.

 

4 hours ago, Gurgeh said:

Yep, Buick only exists because of the China market, where it is a top seller for GM and is seen as a very premium brand. You'll notice that many surveys that rank auto brands on things like reliability, quality, customer satisfaction, etc. include Buick in the Luxury category, which in the U.S. context doesn't really make sense.

 

Buick is not a "very premium brand" in China. It's not even a little premium in China. Sine the brand entered China, it has always been positioned as a mass market brand. Cadillac is GM's premium brand in China.

 

The cheapest and 2nd best selling Buick model is Excelle, a compact sedan that cost a bit less than Ford Escort. 

 

https://www.buick.com.cn/excelle

 

https://www.ford.com.cn/cars/allnewescort/

 

GM's 5 brands in China spans the all the segments:

  1. Wuling - entry level/low costs, primarily focused on commercial vehicles
  2. Baojun - entry level/low costs, primarily focused on passenger vehicles
  3. Chevy - mainstream brand, was introduced in China to double the sales network because rivals VW, Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, Stellantis (during the PSA era) and Ford (pre-Mazda spilt) all have two mainstream brands.
  4. Buick - mainstream brand, was originally introduced to compete with VW
  5. Cadillac - premium luxury brand

 

 

Edited by bzcat
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15 hours ago, akirby said:


Disagree 100x.  Then again I might be biased.

Fair enough, I've always said explorer styling peaked with the 5th gen because the 6th gen is too fussy and not as cohesive, especially in the front. The rear is just a more generic take on the 5th gens. But I own a 2017, so I guess we're both biased when it comes to different products ? 

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3 hours ago, DeluxeStang said:

Fair enough, I've always said explorer styling peaked with the 5th gen because the 6th gen is too fussy and not as cohesive, especially in the front. The rear is just a more generic take on the 5th gens. But I own a 2017, so I guess we're both biased when it comes to different products ? 


You were thinking about the current one and not the pre 2020 version right?  I think our 22 looks way better than our 2016.

 

2022:

 

image.jpeg

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22 hours ago, akirby said:


You were thinking about the current one and not the pre 2020 version right?  I think our 22 looks way better than our 2016.

 

2022:

 

image.jpeg

Oh to clear up any confusion, I'm comparing the 2011-19 explorer to the 2020- explorer saying how the 2011-19s look much better. Going on to say maybe I'm biased because we have a 2017 explorer, so I can relate to preferring an older gen over a newer gen. Hopefully that makes sense. 

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17 hours ago, DeluxeStang said:

Oh to clear up any confusion, I'm comparing the 2011-19 explorer to the 2020- explorer saying how the 2011-19s look much better. Going on to say maybe I'm biased because we have a 2017 explorer, so I can relate to preferring an older gen over a newer gen. Hopefully that makes sense. 


I meant your original comment saying the new Nautilus was 10x better than the current one.  
 

But I also much prefer the new Explorers over the previous Gen.

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1 hour ago, akirby said:


I meant your original comment saying the new Nautilus was 10x better than the current one.  
 

But I also much prefer the new Explorers over the previous Gen.

The new Nautilus just looks more cohesive to me. The lines just seem to flow a little better. It also looks less bulbous imo. Regarding the explorer, the newer explorers have better side view proportions with longer dash to axle ratios and shorter overhangs. But their front ends lost the beautiful of the previous gen, the way the headlights partially cuts into the grille and just stops for example looks terrible. The rear is more generic as well. If the refreshed explorer for the US looks like the Chinese version, then it'll be a massive improvement imo. 

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On 11/25/2022 at 11:17 AM, DeluxeStang said:

The new Nautilus just looks more cohesive to me. The lines just seem to flow a little better. It also looks less bulbous imo. Regarding the explorer, the newer explorers have better side view proportions with longer dash to axle ratios and shorter overhangs. But their front ends lost the beautiful of the previous gen, the way the headlights partially cuts into the grille and just stops for example looks terrible. The rear is more generic as well. If the refreshed explorer for the US looks like the Chinese version, then it'll be a massive improvement imo. 


with Ford’s MO of late, we’ll probably see some new taillight graphics, a different “Explorer” badge out back, and a new front end, with a *slightly* larger screen inside and no other interior changes …

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The new Edge and Nautilus are much bigger which will fill the gap in the market in China when Explorer/Aviator goes full EV in a year or two.

 

I understand why Ford doesn't seem interested in bring them to the US. The plan here is to keep the ICE Explorer around indefinitely because Ford can't afford to shut down Chicago. 

 

 

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8 hours ago, bzcat said:

The new Edge and Nautilus are much bigger which will fill the gap in the market in China when Explorer/Aviator goes full EV in a year or two.

 

I understand why Ford doesn't seem interested in bring them to the US. The plan here is to keep the ICE Explorer around indefinitely because Ford can't afford to shut down Chicago. 

While I agree with your read of the situation, I think that Ford is missing the rapid switch to EVs in China

and risks being left with ICE vehicles that fewer and fewer buyers want, Ford could also be subject to 

rule changes that make production and sale (registration) of gasoline vehicles harder and harder.

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11 hours ago, jpd80 said:

While I agree with your read of the situation, I think that Ford is missing the rapid switch to EVs in China

and risks being left with ICE vehicles that fewer and fewer buyers want, Ford could also be subject to 

rule changes that make production and sale (registration) of gasoline vehicles harder and harder.

 

Maybe its a pipeline thing-they had product issues in China and this is the end result of that and was too far along to kill off?

 

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On 12/2/2022 at 2:01 AM, bzcat said:

I understand why Ford doesn't seem interested in bring them to the US. The plan here is to keep the ICE Explorer around indefinitely because Ford can't afford to shut down Chicago. 

Seeing how hard it is to secure more batteries and ramp up production for of its current EV models, ICE models (including hybrids) will probably still be relevant till the end of the decade. 

I read that in the US, there are states that still have low charger to EV ratio, same goes for some export markets.

I wonder how many years it will take for Ford's EV sales in the US to reach 50% of its total sales.

Edited by AM222
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On 12/1/2022 at 6:01 PM, jpd80 said:

While I agree with your read of the situation, I think that Ford is missing the rapid switch to EVs in China

and risks being left with ICE vehicles that fewer and fewer buyers want, Ford could also be subject to 

rule changes that make production and sale (registration) of gasoline vehicles harder and harder.

 

EV's share in China is rising fast but China is such a big market that even a shrinking ICE market is still bigger than most. 

 

Ford US's calculation is two fold:

1. On the demand side, Ford (and almost all OEM in the market) is expecting ICE market in the US to become a price sensitive segment while the mainstream market moves on to EV. This is not as clear of a case in China (in fact, seems to be the opposite with EV starting to dominate the price sensitive segments). So makes sense to keep the existing CD6 Explorer in production in the US to cater to price sensitive customer rather than invest in a whole new ICE SUV on a different architecture (C2) which cannot be made at Chicago without costly retooling. 

 

2. On the supply side, Ford has union labor contract and high fixed costs so they want to avoid duplicate investments building multiple ICE that targets the same segment. Having already invested in EV in Oakville and C2 in Hermosillo, it doesn't seem like there is any more appetite to do another C2 plant. Chicago is probably the one plant in North America that Ford wouldn't mind shutting down... The next UAW contract negotiation will be interesting. 

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Appreciate your view on this but in the US, Ford’s  actions either voluntary or involuntary do not support ICEs becoming price sensitive commodity vehicles. Most of their  current vehicles are in the desirable/ Will pay more category especially while production remains constrained. The fact that Ford is pushing hard with customer based orders filling factory allocation is a sign that it needs highly profitable ICE to continue, especially while it’s first generation EVs struggle with production constraints.

 

Ford China has been a basket case for years, they’ve run out of places to hide the red ink. Sure, it’s fishing with the wrong bait but that will only get you so far, China 6b emissions and fuel economy targets come into play in July 2023, it gets harder from then on for ICE.

 

and you know sales are bad in China when Ford won’t break out individual models and only talks in quarterly sales numbers, they know they’re vehicles are struggling, especially the Mach E.

 

A while back I mentioned that Ford would eventually have a bunch of ICE plants that won’t be needed, the quicker it tries to switch to electric vehicles, the more this will become apparent - it’s tricky, Ford wants EV to replace ICE but needs ICE profits….. how that gets resolved is anyone’s guess….

Edited by jpd80
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12 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Appreciate your view on this but in the US, Ford’s  actions either voluntary or involuntary do not support ICEs becoming price sensitive commodity vehicles.

 

Perhaps Ford expects affluent and forward thinking consumers to embrace Explorer EV, and CD6 Explorer will be the new Panther, unless Ford can close Chicago plant. 

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35 minutes ago, ehaase said:

 

Perhaps Ford expects affluent and forward thinking consumers to embrace Explorer EV, and CD6 Explorer will be the new Panther, unless Ford can close Chicago plant. 


I think just the opposite - remaining ICE vehicles will remain in high demand as ICE production ramps down and models are cancelled.  If an ICE model becomes a commodity with minimal profit margins it will be killed to make room for other ICE vehicles or new BEVs.

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