Motor Trend 2023 Truck of the Year

[akirby]

We need to be more clear if we’re talking about today or 5 years from now or 20 years from now.

 

I am equally frustrated with both the “ EVs don’t work and nobody wants them “ crowd and the “they work for everybody right now” crowd.  Neither are correct and a lot of it is political.

 

What is true today is

 

there are use cases and buyers where BEVs work great

there are use cases where they could work but with some inconveniences (charging on long trips e.g.)

there are uses cases where they could work but with major inconveniences (extreme cold, rural areas, no home charging)

there are use cases where they just don’t work at all today (heavy/long distance towing)

 

 

[akirby]

36 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

Oh if its not our friendly Matt that keeps trolling this site...might want to try harder next time. 

The funny part is he thinks we don’t know….

[silvrsvt]

29 minutes ago, PS197TT said:

If you’re going to attack me at least have a basic comprehension of what I’m saying.  Blindly attacking is both childish and unproductive. 

 

You keep claiming PHEVS are better solution without any proof that they would be. 

[rperez817]

On 1/3/2023 at 1:08 PM, Harley Lover said:

I have to challenge one thing in this post: "the market...already made the decision"; on what basis can that statement be supported? 

 

On 1/3/2023 at 1:28 PM, Captainp4 said:

I'd point to the vast growth of Tesla (consistent 50% yoy) and huge demand/order numbers on any recent EV release. 

 

Adding to Captainp4's examples, here are a couple data points from Ford's 2022 sales results released on Thursday.

• Ford BEV sales CY 2021 to CY 2022 YOY: up 127%
• Ford non-BEV sales CY 2021 to CY 2022 YOY: down 4%

As facilities like Blue Oval City and BEV component plants start operations, Ford will experience a further uptick in the BEV sales growth rate and an even more pronounced decline in non-BEV sales in the years to come. The automotive market overall in the U.S. should experience the same trends.

[tbone]

48 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

 

 

Adding to Captainp4's examples, here are a couple data points from Ford's 2022 sales results released on Thursday.

• Ford BEV sales CY 2021 to CY 2022 YOY: up 127%
• Ford non-BEV sales CY 2021 to CY 2022 YOY: down 4%

As facilities like Blue Oval City and BEV component plants start operations, Ford will experience a further uptick in the BEV sales growth rate and an even more pronounced decline in non-BEV sales in the years to come. The automotive market overall in the U.S. should experience the same trends.

Your sales stats really aren’t relevant considering ICE production has been constrained by major parts supply issues, and I’m confident Ford has prioritized parts for the EVs.  It’s also not difficult to go from 60k EVs to 120k to get those big percentage increases, when compared to nearly two million ICE vehicles.  
 

As an aside, how many of those EV sales were conquest sales, 60%?  That’s not a major theft of Ford ICE sales by the EVs, which is a good thing.  

[jpd80]

1 hour ago, PS197TT said:

And the more impressive number is only being down 4% for ICE vehicles considering the chip and supply chain issues.  Especially considering Ford was sending chips in droves to the Lightning which uses 8x the chips as a normal F-150.  
 

As for Ford EV sales being up 127%, while impressive on the surface, you need to think a little deeper and realize that on such a small volume, even small increases in sales will show a drastic increase percentage wise.  

I don’t like percentages because the comparison is always to either previous year an often underplays a problem F Series sales ended with 654k where a good year is usually up in the 900ks, so significantly short on cash cow….

 

Ford talks up EV sales but combined, they barely bust through 7,000/ mth combined, mostly due to suppliers struggling with Ford’s desire for quicker ramp up, I’m hoping that the situation improves significantly this year, Ford has a ton of buyers waiting to pay full price for vehicles….make that all of them, not just EVs.

 

I once thought that PHEVs were a possible alternative to  BEVs but it looks like segregation has happened  with ICE buyers just wanting the lower cost hybrid to save them fuel with no charging, it just seems to be an easier sell over some increased battery size where costs pile up quickly, thinking PHEV Escape and it’s a compact, so imagine cost of a PHEV Explorer or F150, those products begin stepping all over the Lightning and BEV Explorer coming in the near future. Nobody’s saying you have to like the chosen strategy. There may be a future case for the aftermarket to supply bigger/extra battery capacity to hybrids……but I guess  that’s another different conversation 

Edited January 6, 2023 by jpd80

[silvrsvt]

1 hour ago, jpd80 said:

I once thought that PHEVs were a possible alternative to  BEVs but it looks like segregation has happened  with ICE buyers just wanting the lower cost hybrid to save them fuel with no charging, it just seems to be an easier sell over some increased battery size where costs pile up quickly, thinking PHEV Escape and it’s a compact, so imagine cost of a PHEV Explorer or F150, those products begin stepping all over the Lightning and BEV Explorer coming in the near future. Nobody’s saying you have to like the chosen strategy. There may be a future case for the aftermarket to supply bigger/extra battery capacity to hybrids……but I guess  that’s another different conversation 

 

The issue with larger products is the fuel savings isn't as great-the Powerboost hybrid setup on RWD products isn't a huge gas saver-its only about $300 a year comparing the 2.7L vs the 3.5L hybrid. The same situation with the Escape HEV vs PHEV-not to mention the PHEV tank size is about 3 gallons less also. 

I was checking the Prius out-comparing the 02MY (first gen) vs the 22MY-the 22MY gets almost 10 MPG increase over the old model, but actual savings a year is only $250 bucks in gas. 

 

 

 

 

[rperez817]

3 hours ago, PS197TT said:

And the more impressive number is only being down 4% for ICE vehicles considering the chip and supply chain issues.  

 

While Ford's sales decline of 4% for ICE vehicles in 2022 YOY is not as severe as the industrywide figure of about 8% decline, the most important takeaway from the stats I shared earlier is that the ICE age is coming to an end. Not just for Ford, but for all automakers. ICE vehicle sales are in terminal decline, BEV is where growth opportunities for all automakers lie nowadays.

[akirby]

43 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

the ICE age is coming to an end. Not just for Ford, but for all automakers.

Just stop already.  It’s a stupid statement and all it does is cause arguments.  

[Chrisgb]

58 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

...the ICE age is coming to an end.

More accurately the beginning of the end, IMHO. Thomas Edison opened the US' first large scale power plant in Detroit in 1882. The end of household coal? kerosene lamps? Balderdash! sheer madness to put copper wires in your home and bring in this man made lightning which has the power to kill two horses simultaneously! Despite ambitious engineering efforts,  subsidies, private investment, it wasn't until 1952 that 98% of US households had been electrified we have a skeptical stripe as a species. It's exciting to look forward to a BEV future, but it will take time; agonizingly long for some, much too fast for others. And I'm thinking  H2 will be the prevalent energy source for turn of this century.

 

Christians believe that we are in the end times, and have been for about 2,023 years so far, 

[silvrsvt]

57 minutes ago, Chrisgb said:

 And I'm thinking  H2 will be the prevalent energy source for turn of this century.

 

The issue with hydrogen is that it just doesn't work unless Fusion is perfected. 

 

The issue with it is that it takes more energy to produce it then it puts out and then its being used to power an engine that loses anywhere from 40-60% of its power output. 

 

Its just far simpler to use that same energy to charge a battery to power an electric motor.

 

[silvrsvt]

2 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

While Ford's sales decline of 4% for ICE vehicles in 2022 YOY is not as severe as the industrywide figure of about 8% decline, the most important takeaway from the stats I shared earlier is that the ICE age is coming to an end. Not just for Ford, but for all automakers. ICE vehicle sales are in terminal decline, BEV is where growth opportunities for all automakers lie nowadays.

 

While I'm a BEV supporter, we are going to see ICE on the roads till 2040 at least, unless it gets outright banned by governments. 

it's going to take at least another 10 years before BEVs are at parity with ICE sales. 

[Rick73]

European BEV and PHEV sales are essentially equal for cars according to European Environment Agency.  Data by country varies considerably, but overall it shows buyers have different preferences.  It doesn’t prove either is better than the other, just that there is some demand for both.

 

https://www.eea.europa.eu/ims/new-registrations-of-electric-vehicles

 

 

[rperez817]

2 hours ago, akirby said:

Just stop already.  It’s a stupid statement and all it does is cause arguments.  

 

Sorry about that. Stated a different way, the situation in U.S., Europe, and China is that BEV hit a "tipping point" for mass adoption in 2022. As such, BEV growth rates will increase even more in the coming years as automakers address supply chain constraints. At Ford in particular, BEV growth rates of 300% YOY or more from 2023 until the end of the decade are likely. Ford VP Darren Palmer said "We could sell it [BEV] out at least two or three times over" and that "We have held back from launching more global markets because we’re completely sold out". Electric vehicle sales hit a tipping point in 2022 | CNN Business

[rperez817]

1 hour ago, silvrsvt said:

While I'm a BEV supporter, we are going to see ICE on the roads till 2040 at least, unless it gets outright banned by governments. 

 

Good point silvrsvt. The existing bans on ICE vehicles across the globe all pertain to new vehicle sales, not used vehicle sales or to vehicles in operation overall. However, governments may impose restrictions on where existing ICE vehicles can be used, as in Montreal's recent proposal for "zero emissions zones" in the city center. Montreal ponders 'zero-emissions zone' in city centre | Montreal Gazette

[akirby]

1 hour ago, rperez817 said:

 

Sorry about that. Stated a different way, the situation in U.S., Europe, and China is that BEV hit a "tipping point" for mass adoption in 2022. As such, BEV growth rates will increase even more in the coming years as automakers address supply chain constraints. At Ford in particular, BEV growth rates of 300% YOY or more from 2023 until the end of the decade are likely. Ford VP Darren Palmer said "We could sell it [BEV] out at least two or three times over" and that "We have held back from launching more global markets because we’re completely sold out". Electric vehicle sales hit a tipping point in 2022 | CNN Business

What you’re seeing is fast growth within a limited market.  Once demand within that limited market is satisfied growth stops.  It’s a wall.

 

The only people who are buying BEVs in the U.S. are the EV fanatics who don’t mind range or charging inconveniences and people who can charge at home who are buying them as second or third vehicles but keeping an ICE vehicle.   People who have only one vehicle and/or can’t charge at home are not going to buy a BEV until we get next Gen batteries and vastly upgraded charging infrastructure.  And most people outside large cities are in the latter category.  Not to mention the large percentage of buyers who simply don’t want them period.

 

Sales will grow as the technology and infrastructure grows but that’s a multi decade process.  And even if the government says they will ban ICE sales it won’t happen if the technology and infrastructure aren’t ready.

[rperez817]

2 hours ago, akirby said:

What you’re seeing is fast growth within a limited market.  Once demand within that limited market is satisfied growth stops.  It’s a wall.

 

The BloombergNEF researcher quoted in the CNN Business article indicated that any market limitations are on the supply side, not demand. Those supply constraints should ease in 2023 and beyond.

 

“I think now the demand is definitely there,” said [BloombergNEF researcher Corey Cantor]. “It’s just been more a supply side problem of automakers not being able to ship enough.”

[Rick73]

2 hours ago, PS197TT said:

You don’t seek out what you don’t know is available.  The only issue with PHEVs is they are expensive which I don’t get. Prices need to come down as they are way too high, just like EVs.  

 

Not all PHEV are extremely expensive if you look at list of top 10 that I posted previously.  One is under $30,000 and a couple more under $40,000, including the Ford.

 

Regarding European BEV versus PHEV, what is missing is data on HEV.  Another source shows HEV numbers at just over twice those of BEV or PHEV, so if we combine HEV and PHEV (total hybrids), they represent over three times as many vehicles as BEV.

 

My personal opinion (I have no proof) is that European shortages of electricity and higher costs due to war may affect vehicle purchases.  One graph even showed a recent decline for BEVs.  I would post data but I’m not sure of forum rules.  Information is easy enough to find though.

[akirby]

39 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

 

The BloombergNEF researcher quoted in the CNN Business article indicated that any market limitations are on the supply side, not demand. Those supply constraints should ease in 2023 and beyond.

At the current level, yes.  But the demand will peak somewhere and it won’t be more than 50% regardless of supply for all the reasons I mentioned that you either blatantly ignored or didn’t understand.

[rperez817]

35 minutes ago, akirby said:

At the current level, yes.  But the demand will peak somewhere and it won’t be more than 50% regardless of supply for all the reasons I mentioned that you either blatantly ignored or didn’t understand.

 

"Demand peak" for BEV isn't a concern. Automotive industry analysts and researchers reported the BEV tipping point reached last year has brought into play a virtuous cycle. In other words, as BEV sales continue to grow, more people get exposure and experience with them, and that results in even more people becoming interested in getting a BEV.

 

J.D. Power reported last year that "Making the initial leap of faith into owning a BEV is proving to be very satisfying" and "once someone has purchased a BEV, they’re pretty much hooked."

 

 

 

[akirby]

So you think if mfrs could produce enough BEVs today that we’d see 100% BEV sales?

 

Vast majority of truck buyers (and virtually all HD buyers) won’t buy them

Vast majority of people who can’t easily charge at home won’t buy them

Vast majority of people in northern climates won’t buy them

The anti EV crowd won’t buy them

 

There is a definitive wall on demand for the near future.  Doesn’t mean sales won’t continue to rise but they aren’t going to reach even 50% with current technology and infrastructure.  Demand may continue to outpace supply and we might see new technology and infrastructure before we hit peak demand.  But to say that demand is unlimited is just stupid

 

If you can’t understand that then maybe you should take another vacation.

[tarheels23]

7 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

The issue with hydrogen is that it just doesn't work unless Fusion is perfected. 

 

The issue with it is that it takes more energy to produce it then it puts out and then its being used to power an engine that loses anywhere from 40-60% of its power output. 

 

Its just far simpler to use that same energy to charge a battery to power an electric motor.

 

also delivery system without leaks, per my reading this has to be answered first.  EU really struggling with it.

[tarheels23]

6 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

Good point silvrsvt. The existing bans on ICE vehicles across the globe all pertain to new vehicle sales, not used vehicle sales or to vehicles in operation overall. However, governments may impose restrictions on where existing ICE vehicles can be used, as in Montreal's recent proposal for "zero emissions zones" in the city center. Montreal ponders 'zero-emissions zone' in city centre | Montreal Gazette

also gasoline will be replaced with mountain dew, all the future anti-BEV will be stocking up on corn  ?

[tarheels23]

2 hours ago, akirby said:

At the current level, yes.  But the demand will peak somewhere and it won’t be more than 50% regardless of supply for all the reasons I mentioned that you either blatantly ignored or didn’t understand.

your 50% is probably low  IMO

[tarheels23]

1 hour ago, akirby said:

So you think if mfrs could produce enough BEVs today that we’d see 100% BEV sales?

 

Vast majority of truck buyers (and virtually all HD buyers) won’t buy them

Vast majority of people who can’t easily charge at home won’t buy them

Vast majority of people in northern climates won’t buy them

The anti EV crowd won’t buy them

 

There is a definitive wall on demand for the near future.  Doesn’t mean sales won’t continue to rise but they aren’t going to reach even 50% with current technology and infrastructure.  Demand may continue to outpace supply and we might see new technology and infrastructure before we hit peak demand.  But to say that demand is unlimited is just stupid

 

If you can’t understand that then maybe you should take another vacation.

just had a neighbor today who is very conservative talk about my hybrid and he talked openly progressive about a HPEV which caught me by surprise.  I believe the tipping point may be sooner than you have stated but then again you may be correct.