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Motor Trend 2023 Truck of the Year


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The difference with Europe and China is that those governments are literally legislating ICE passenger vehicles out of existence in the second half of this decade. Even PHEVs and HEVs won’t make the cut without relaxations for certain vehicle applications.
 

The US in comparison is simply encouraging the uptake of BEVs, well maybe California’s proposed banning class 8 ICE Trucks is an example….so BEVs will increase beyond a curiosity but most definitely, major migration will not suddenly happen in the next two or three years like some think.

Edited by jpd80
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This discussion jogged my memory.  John McElroy of Autoline Daily had some interesting observations on how fast the U.S. EV fleet will become electric. This is from May, 2020, during the height of Covid mania, but probably still holds today. To quote, "“Even if half of all new car sales were EV starting today, it would take until 2055 until half the fleet was electric.

 

Listen to the first minute or so.

 

http://www.autoline.tv/journal/?p=67766

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To me, a huge obstacle for BEVs to overcome is cost. A 4 wheel drive extended range XLT Lightning is now more than $80K and exceeds $85 K with a few options. An all wheel drive extended range Mach E is more than $66K. Those prices put those vehicles out of reach for most of Ford’s traditional customers. The great majority of car/truck buyers will continue to buy ICE if they are less costly. I doubt Ford is making any money on BEVs even at these high prices. Maybe technology improves enough by the end of the decade to bring costs significantly lower, but that is far from a certainty. The risks to automakers of diverting too many resources to BEVs if cost, range, and charging issues are not resolved in the next 6 to 8 years are obvious. 

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11 hours ago, rperez817 said:

At Ford in particular, BEV growth rates of 300% YOY or more from 2023 until the end of the decade are likely. 

 

Compounding numbers are funny things. In 2022 Ford sold 61,575 EVs. If those sales grew 300% for the next 8 years, compounding annually, Ford would be selling 403,993,575 electric vehicles in 2030. ;)

Edited by Gurgeh
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On 1/6/2023 at 8:59 AM, silvrsvt said:

The issue with hydrogen is that it just doesn't work unless Fusion is perfected. 

 

The issue with it is that it takes more energy to produce it then it puts out and then its being used to power an engine that loses anywhere from 40-60% of its power output. 

 

Its just far simpler to use that same energy to charge a battery to power an electric motor.

 

I was thinking more of hydrogen fuel cell- powered EVs. rather than less efficient burning of H2.  A new electrolysis process has been demonstrated to produce H2 at 98% efficiency and reduces or eliminates much of the post-electrolysis expenses and hardware. H2 fuel cells are less efficient than batteries but far more energy dense, and require far less toxic (chemical as well as political) materials, resulting in significantly less overall powertrain weight. Add all this to ~95% efficiency of electric motors and long term I believe is the best way to achieve a goal of net zero energy.

https://newatlas.com/energy/hysata-efficient-hydrogen-electrolysis/

https://www.umicore.com/en/newsroom/news/fuel-cells-battery-difference/

Thread hijack over ?

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18 hours ago, akirby said:

But to say that demand is unlimited is just stupid

 

No one is saying "demand is unlimited". What is true however is that the so called "peak demand" for BEV that you keep mentioning in this thread is not a significant concern for any automaker nowadays, including Ford. Ramping up BEV and HV battery production capacity and resolving supply chain bottlenecks dwarf any other issues.

 

Even Jim Farley, who has been an automotive industry leader when it comes to BEV strategy, admitted he was kinda surprised at how fast the tipping point for mass adoption of BEV in Ford's leading markets of U.S., China and Europe came about in 2022.

 

It seems to be going much faster than all of us forecasted. And it jumped…I mean it’s gone so much faster than people think. So much faster than the charging experience. So much faster than the purchase price. So much faster than you would have predicted.

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16 hours ago, mackinaw said:

This discussion jogged my memory.  John McElroy of Autoline Daily had some interesting observations on how fast the U.S. EV fleet will become electric. This is from May, 2020, during the height of Covid mania, but probably still holds today. To quote, "“Even if half of all new car sales were EV starting today, it would take until 2055 until half the fleet was electric.

 

Listen to the first minute or so.

 

http://www.autoline.tv/journal/?p=67766

 

Thank you mackinaw. John McElroy is correct. His statement highlights the difference between new car sales and total vehicles in operation. The latter number is of course much larger. As such, public policies that go above and beyond supporting the ongoing transition of the new car market to all-electric can play an important role in achieving goals like Net Zero by 2050. A scholar at Columbia Climate School mentioned this example.

 

My next car will be electric, but my current one only has 20,000 miles on it. When I trade it in, someone will buy it and use it. That someone could be the government and they would then need to send it to the fossil fuel graveyard.  If the government doesn’t buy and retire my car, it will emit greenhouse gasses for at least a decade after I sell it.

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On 1/6/2023 at 3:33 PM, PS197TT said:

 


You’re right not all are that high.  Jeep has positioned their PHEVs as top of the line powertrains which is silly.  Ford has done it right with the Escape but I really wish they would do a better job advertising it.  If they did I bet you would see some Mach E buyers buy the Escape PHEV instead for the huge benefits I have stated above.  


Remind me, how much does Tesla spend on advertising?

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21 hours ago, Trader 10 said:

 The risks to automakers of diverting too many resources to BEVs if cost, range, and charging issues are not resolved in the next 6 to 8 years are obvious. 

Prices will come down as different materials and more production capabilities are added for battery production. 
 

The thing is that Ford is still planning on making ICE products till 2035, in North America at least. The EU and China are different cases though. Lots can happen in the next 12 years, just look at what happened between 2008 and 2020, as an example.

 

 

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On 1/6/2023 at 5:46 PM, jpd80 said:

The US in comparison is simply encouraging the uptake of BEVs, well maybe California’s proposed banning class 8 ICE Trucks is an example….so BEVs will increase beyond a curiosity but most definitely, major migration will not suddenly happen in the next two or three years like some think.

That is the issue here-most anti ev people think they won’t improve or over come shortcomings they have. I think we will see a steady increase in the US till 2030 and then around that time, BEVs will make up at least 50% or more of the new car sales. 
 

Automakers are talking BEVs now because they are talking about the future in the next 48 to 60 months with new products. There is no “new” ICE improvements that will allow them to stay in production beyond the next 10-15 years due to different government mandates. We are at peak ICE with performance and emissions and they’ll just fade away as time goes on. 

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4 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

That is the issue here-most anti ev people think they won’t improve or over come shortcomings they have. I think we will see a steady increase in the US till 2030 and then around that time, BEVs will make up at least 50% or more of the new car sales. 
 

Automakers are talking BEVs now because they are talking about the future in the next 48 to 60 months with new products. There is no “new” ICE improvements that will allow them to stay in production beyond the next 10-15 years due to different government mandates. We are at peak ICE with performance and emissions and they’ll just fade away as time goes on. 

Ford needs its ICE products to remain solid profit earners for at least the rest of this decade and part of the next.

Ford also needs its C2 compact vehicles to be strong sellers to “occupy “ and retain as many compact buyers as

possible until it has affordable CE1 vehicles post 2027, so the hybrid compacts have a big job to do until then.

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Speaking of industry awards, the 2023 North American Car, Truck, and SUV of the Year winners will be announced on Wednesday. It would be very surprising if F-150 Lightning doesn't win the truck award, as it's a far superior product compared to the other 2 finalists. 2023 North American Car, Truck and Utility Vehicle of the Year Award™ Winners to Be Announced on January 11 - North American Car, Truck and Utility of the Year (northamericancaroftheyear.org)

 

North American Car of the Year™:

North American Truck of the Year™:

North American Utility Vehicle of the Year™:

 

 

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On 1/6/2023 at 9:23 AM, Chrisgb said:

Despite ambitious engineering efforts,  subsidies, private investment, it wasn't until 1952 that 98% of US households had been electrified we have a skeptical stripe as a species.


They also didn’t have nearly as intrusive government(s) as we have today. 

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On 1/7/2023 at 10:14 AM, rperez817 said:
  Quote
My next car will be electric, but my current one only has 20,000 miles on it. When I trade it in, someone will buy it and use it. That someone could be the government and they would then need to send it to the fossil fuel graveyard.  If the government doesn’t buy and retire my car, it will emit greenhouse gasses for at least a decade after I sell it.

So what about the buyers who can’t afford new vehicles (most buyers) when the government removes all these used cars from the market?

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1 hour ago, tarheels23 said:

the Dwight Eisenhower Interstate Highway System says hello without which the auto industry would not be so BIG


No. In no way was that the government forcing people to drive in lieu of other forms of transportation. What we are currently dealing with is government(s) attempting to force BEVs upon us regardless of whether or not the infrastructure to support it exists. 

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1 hour ago, fuzzymoomoo said:


No. In no way was that the government forcing people to drive in lieu of other forms of transportation. What we are currently dealing with is government(s) attempting to force BEVs upon us regardless of whether or not the infrastructure to support it exists. 

did not mean force, just incentivizing by providing a better way to get there

also you are not being forced to buy EV's, you can get new ICE's for 12 more years and then you can but used forever

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6 hours ago, PS197TT said:

Sure.  If price, refill times, range, and overall livability are not considered. 

 

Everything that the NACOTY judges would consider for a "truck of the year", F-150 Lightning has in spades. Summary of how the finalists stack up.

  • 2023 Chevrolet Silverado ZR2. ZR2 is a new off-road oriented trim level for an otherwise obsolete ICE powered pickup truck. Beyond off-road capability and Chevrolet's good reputation for pickup trucks, nothing about the ZR2 stands out. Definitely not "truck of the year" material.
  • 2023 Lordstown Endurance. This truck has some sophisticated technology, especially its hub-motor system. However, performance and overall capability fall short of F-150 Lightning. Plus, Lordstown Motors as a company lacks the good reputation that Chevrolet and Ford have for pickup trucks, and has experienced more difficulty than other automakers with production ramp up. Also falls short of "truck of the year" material.
  • 2023 Ford F-150 Lightning. This is not only the best F-150 ever, but the most important new product introduction from Ford Motor Company in the 21st century, and for now the benchmark for full size LD pickup trucks. Truly a "home run" and the obvious choice for 2023 North American Truck of the Year. 
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5 hours ago, tarheels23 said:

EV's, you can get new ICE's for 12 more years and then you can buy used forever


If you truly believe that won’t be forced to end at some point, well then my friend then I have some beautiful oceanfront property I can sell you for a song in Kansas. 

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31 minutes ago, fuzzymoomoo said:


If you truly believe that won’t be forced to end at some point, well then my friend then I have some beautiful oceanfront property I can sell you for a song in Kansas. 

I guess it depends on how old you are and how long you will be driving, gasoline maybe an issue but you can get a still and make your own.  And if we don't stop burning fossil fuel if you own that property it may be oceanfront sometime in your lifetime.

Edited by tarheels23
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16 hours ago, fuzzymoomoo said:


No. In no way was that the government forcing people to drive in lieu of other forms of transportation. What we are currently dealing with is government(s) attempting to force BEVs upon us regardless of whether or not the infrastructure to support it exists. 

 

The infrastructure will come...you need a demand for it first. I see that first hand where I live. Just because your "bubble" doesn't have it (I don't mean that in a bad way-everyone has a different bubble they live in) , doesn't mean its not coming. How prevalent was high speed internet back 25+ years ago? Now you most likely carry a phone that can do the same speeds wirelessly.

 

Its going to be a different place for BEVs by 2030-which is only 7 years away. 

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27 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

 

The infrastructure will come...you need a demand for it first. I see that first hand where I live. Just because your "bubble" doesn't have it (I don't mean that in a bad way-everyone has a different bubble they live in) , doesn't mean its not coming. How prevalent was high speed internet back 25+ years ago? Now you most likely carry a phone that can do the same speeds wirelessly.

 

Its going to be a different place for BEVs by 2030-which is only 7 years away. 


You’re missing my point. The demand wouldn’t be there if the powers that be weren’t pushing it so hard. 

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