Harley Lover Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 I think this could be an important indicator of how Ford might be planning to utilize the Lightning plant(s) in Michigan once BOC is up and running. Could it be possible that the BOF OG Lightning could live on after BOC, perhaps in support of Ford PRO? The lithium iron phosphate batteries are lower cost, might be tailor made for such an application. Quote Ford Motor Co. and China’s Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. are considering building a battery manufacturing plant in Michigan. The factory will provide lithium iron phosphate batteries for Ford’s electric models. The companies are weighing a novel ownership structure under which Ford would own 100 percent of the plant, including the building and the infrastructure, while CATL would operate the factory and own the technology to build the cells, the people said. Such an arrangement would let the facility qualify for lucrative production tax credits under the new Inflation Reduction Act while requiring no direct financial investment from CATL. “It is incredibly important to own the battery value chain, there’s no doubt,” Lisa Drake, Ford’s vice president of EV industrialization, said in an interview Tuesday on the sidelines of a Ford technology event. That “is why we are controlling the raw materials ourselves, nickel, lithium, etc.” She declined to comment on the specifics of negotiations with CATL. The article mentions that Virginia is also under consideration as a site, but perhaps that is a bargaining ruse, as the location isn't really central to Ford's operations. https://www.autonews.com/automakers-suppliers/ford-chinas-catl-mull-us-battery-plant?utm_source=daily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20221215&utm_content=hero-headline 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AGR Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 If I'm not mistaken, the batteries made by CATL are cheaper than SK's batteries. My guess is once the TE1 F150 Lightning comes around, the current Lightning's technology will get handed down to Ranger and possibly Bronco for T6-based EVs. Having cheaper batteries would be a plus. JPD posted in another thread that VW is planning an Amarok EV in 2026. I find it unlikely that they would do a T6-based EV by themselves, especially when it's not their platform. The TE1 Ranger and Bronco aren't coming until the late 20s(according to that spreadsheet), I wouldn't think they would wait that long to bring out Ranger and Bronco EVs. Who knows, maybe they'll shoehorn batteries into the S650 Mustang. The GE2 Mustang isn't coming until the late 20s as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmc523 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 I wonder if they also could do a Lightning “heritage” - I.e. keep producing the current Lightning with these batteries, while the new stuff goes to the next gen Lightning? and then maybe the current gen becomes cheaper? just read an article saying Lightning now starts at like $58k which is crazy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harley Lover Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 30 minutes ago, rmc523 said: I wonder if they also could do a Lightning “heritage” - I.e. keep producing the current Lightning with these batteries, while the new stuff goes to the next gen Lightning? and then maybe the current gen becomes cheaper? That's the basis of my speculation that the OG Lightning might become a Ford Pro exclusive... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bzcat Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Not sure we can assume these batteries will go to a specific model yet. Ford will need to eventually get in the sub $30k EV market (e.g. next gen Puma and next gen Maverick) so doesn't hurt to have another battery plant to draw from. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, bzcat said: Not sure we can assume these batteries will go to a specific model yet. Ford will need to eventually get in the sub $30k EV market (e.g. next gen Puma and next gen Maverick) so doesn't hurt to have another battery plant to draw from. I have a feeling that the sub $30k pricing won’t exist in the near future, prices of new cars always advance and get more expensive for us. Edited December 16, 2022 by jpd80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bzcat Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Sure, adjust for inflation if you want. But sub $30k EV in today's dollar is not a distant dream. The European and Chinese market is going to get flooded with B and C segment EV below $30k in the next 3 years from every OEM, including Ford Puma EV. GM is going to start selling $30k Equinox EV in the US in a few months... only a matter of time before we get sub $30k Trailblazer EV or whatever. I think you have a slightly myopic view of EV because Australia is so far behind even the US but other markets are moving rapidly towards EV. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 (edited) 9 hours ago, bzcat said: Sure, adjust for inflation if you want. But sub $30k EV in today's dollar is not a distant dream. The European and Chinese market is going to get flooded with B and C segment EV below $30k in the next 3 years from every OEM, including Ford Puma EV. GM is going to start selling $30k Equinox EV in the US in a few months... only a matter of time before we get sub $30k Trailblazer EV or whatever. I think you have a slightly myopic view of EV because Australia is so far behind even the US but other markets are moving rapidly towards EV. edit, I think your view of Aussie market missing context, we are about to be flooded by BYD and a few other Chinese brands, but zero sign of those sub USD $30k EVs. The only way you’ll see that sort of pricing is with help from US government tax breaks that imports will struggle to get. and no way EV Puma will be sub $30k. Edited December 17, 2022 by jpd80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 14 hours ago, bzcat said: Sure, adjust for inflation if you want. But sub $30k EV in today's dollar is not a distant dream. The European and Chinese market is going to get flooded with B and C segment EV below $30k in the next 3 years from every OEM, including Ford Puma EV. GM is going to start selling $30k Equinox EV in the US in a few months... only a matter of time before we get sub $30k Trailblazer EV or whatever. I think you have a slightly myopic view of EV because Australia is so far behind even the US but other markets are moving rapidly towards EV. 13 hours ago, jpd80 said: I think your view of Aussie market missing context, we are about to be flooded by BYD and a few other Chinese brands, but zero sign of those sub USD $30k EVs. and no way EV Puma will be sub $30k. bzcat and jpd80, are you referring to USD or AUD for the Australia market BEV? Exchange rate on Dec. 17, 2022: 1 USD = 1.49 AUD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick73 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 16 hours ago, bzcat said: I think you have a slightly myopic view of EV because Australia is so far behind even the US but other markets are moving rapidly towards EV. Other than China and Europe, which markets are moving faster than Northern America? I was looking for data, and found one report (have no idea of accuracy) suggesting China and Europe combined make up the vast majority of market. Northern America comes in a distant third. I would guess that travel distance and income probably make a huge difference on BEV adoption? I’d also guess that Europeans don’t travel by car 1,000s of miles as often as we do in US? For China, I expect low-cost BEV is a reality? https://www.virta.global/en/global-electric-vehicle-market 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 (edited) 5 hours ago, rperez817 said: bzcat and jpd80, are you referring to USD or AUD for the Australia market BEV? Exchange rate on Dec. 17, 2022: 1 USD = 1.49 AUD USD, as this is an American based forum. We have to be careful with context, what kind of EVs are we talking about that that are coming to North America at that sub $30k price point, is that compacts or sub compacts and .how to Americans feel about Chinese EVs flooding their country I simply and respectfully disagree. Edited December 17, 2022 by jpd80 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bzcat Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 5 hours ago, Rick73 said: Other than China and Europe, which markets are moving faster than Northern America? I was looking for data, and found one report (have no idea of accuracy) suggesting China and Europe combined make up the vast majority of market. Northern America comes in a distant third. I would guess that travel distance and income probably make a huge difference on BEV adoption? I’d also guess that Europeans don’t travel by car 1,000s of miles as often as we do in US? For China, I expect low-cost BEV is a reality? https://www.virta.global/en/global-electric-vehicle-market North America is #3 if you are talking about regions. But obviously the US market is not a monolith. California for example is way ahead of the rest of the US. EV sales is already about 20% in California which put it near the front of the pact on EV adoption. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 3 hours ago, jpd80 said: how to Americans feel about Chinese EVs flooding their country Well given how the US is increasinly becoming more protective of things built in China, I forsee a similar situation as the chicken tax for imported vehicles from China. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 (edited) 30 minutes ago, silvrsvt said: Well given how the US is increasinly becoming more protective of things built in China, I forsee a similar situation as the chicken tax for imported vehicles from China. You can see the push back from China complaining about the US making its own EV batteries,. Next they’ll be complaining about USA having its own chip supplies. What’s the world coming to when China doesn’t have a monopoly…… Edited December 17, 2022 by jpd80 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bzcat Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 (edited) 3 hours ago, jpd80 said: USD, as this is an American based forum. We have to be careful with context, what kind of EVs are we talking about that that are coming to North America at that sub $30k price point, is that compacts or sub compacts and .how to Americans feel about Chinese EVs flooding their country I simply and respectfully disagree. Why are you using Chinese EV strawman argument? I said nothing about Chinese EV flooding the US market. Hyundai is rolling out Ioniq 3 in 2023 which will be sub $30k in the US. And as I already mentioned, Chevy Equinox will go on sale in 2023 starting at $30k. That implies the model slotting below it (e.g. Trailblazer EV) will be sub $30k when it shows up. Maybe 2024, perhaps 2025. You can disagree with an opinion but I wasn't expression an opinion. I was pointing out these things are happening. Edited December 17, 2022 by bzcat 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, bzcat said: Why are you using Chinese EV strawman argument? I said nothing about Chinese EV flooding the US market. Hyundai is rolling out Ioniq 3 in 2023 which will be sub $30k in the US. And as I already mentioned, Chevy Equinox will go on sale in 2023 starting at $30k. That implies the model slotting below it (e.g. Trailblazer EV) will be sub $30k when it shows up. Maybe 2024, perhaps 2025. And Ford Puma EV is already confirmed for 2023 (in Europe) which is sub $30k EV. Stellantis is preparing Astra electric and Mokka electric for launch in 2023. You can disagree with an opinion but I wasn't expression an opinion. I was pointing out these things are happening. Hate to inform you but an assumption is an opinion. If the data is misleading, your assumption is wrong. I used Chinese EV pricing because that’s the only way you’re gonna see sub $30k EV pricing in USA next year. Car reviewers are suggesting that the Ionia 3 will slot in under the $41k Ionia 5 in both size and price, that’s more likely to be mid $30k starting price than a sub $30k price - unless you’re adding in tax credits, yes? Given the price hikes in lithium, I wouldn’t be holding my breath on that $30k EV Equinox, not when GM is more likely to build a rich trim mix in the first 12 months while the Ultium battery plant is still ramping up. There’ nothing much on EV Trailblazer yet so probably not coming until 2024, I can easily see the EV starting $10k higher than the current ICE Vehicle’s +$21k starting price. As you say,n these things might be happening but please don’t assume that in the current vehicle market that manufacturers will be offering EVs at bargain prices, no when the higher trims are way more profitable. Edited December 17, 2022 by jpd80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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