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Auto exec losing faith in electrics..


blwnsmoke

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Link to KPMG GAES 2022. GAES 2022 (kpmg.com)

 

Highlights.

When do you believe battery electric vehicles will reach cost/affordability parity with ICE without any subsidies?

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Do you believe battery-electric vehicles can achieve widespread adoption in the next 10 years without government intervention?

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Looking out to 2030, which of the following companies do you think will be the market leaders in electric vehicles?

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How likely are you to divest nonstrategic parts of your businesses in the next several years?

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Which company do you think will be the leader in autonomous vehicle solutions?

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Edited by rperez817
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I tend to agree with them. There is no way to reach cost parity with ICE vehicles in the near future with the rising cost of batteries and raw materials. It becomes an equity issue at that point. This "all-in EV" strategy hits the lower and middle classes the most, despite with some in the political sphere want to admit. 

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On 12/25/2022 at 9:12 AM, Dequindre said:

I tend to agree with them. There is no way to reach cost parity with ICE vehicles in the near future with the rising cost of batteries and raw materials. It becomes an equity issue at that point. This "all-in EV" strategy hits the lower and middle classes the most, despite with some in the political sphere want to admit. 


I was surprised Ford committed to go 100% electric by 2030 in Europe even if the actual EU ban on ICE vehicles is 2035.

Good luck to Ford in Europe since affordable subcompact and compact cars and crossovers make up a large chunk of vehicle sales in Europe. 


 

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3 hours ago, AM222 said:


I was surprised Ford committed to go 100% electric by 2030 in Europe even if the actual EU ban on ICE vehicles is 2035.

Good luck to Ford in Europe since affordable subcompact and compact cars and crossovers make up a large chunk of vehicle sales in Europe. 


 

They could always walk it back with, "Oh, you thought were saying 100% BEV? No, not 100% electric in each individual vehicle, we meant 100% of our vehicles will have some form of electric propulsion, including HEV and PHEV."  

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Toyota President Uncertain About EVs

Toyota's slow adoption of all-electric vehicles was reinforced by the company's president, Akio Toyoda, in comments made during a visit to Thailand, the Wall Street Journal reported.

"People involved in the auto industry are largely a silent majority,” Toyoda said. “That silent majority is wondering whether EVs are really OK to have as a single option. But they think it’s the trend so they can’t speak out loudly.”

Toyota has not been quick to buy into the all-electric trend, as the company has focused on a lineup of gasoline-powered cars, hybrids and hydrogen-powered vehicles instead of concentrating on converting to all-electric models.

“Because the right answer is still unclear, we shouldn’t limit ourselves to just one option,” Mr. Toyoda said.

 

https://www.thestreet.com/automotive/toyotas-president-has-a-take-on-going-all-electric?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

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IMO Toyota's chairman is dealing in creating FUD about BEVs because they stepped on their dicks on getting a proper BEV out. 

 

They seem to be struggling internally-they've been so focused on continuous improvement for the past 50 years that adopting a completely new process in power plant and design is causing them  to have issues. 

ICE has more or less hit a plateau in what it can do with increases in MPGs and carbon emissions and developing hydrogen is a fools errand in the vast majority of cases that has been explained on here already. 

 

The biggest issue with BEVs is with the batteries themselves and there is a ton of R&D being done to improve materials and design on them that should see fruit in the next 5 to 10 years.

 

Current tech is about a 60-70% solution to most use cases with some modification of driver behavior and expectations of what and how an auto is supposed to work-using the latest example of the idiot with a Tesla not being able to charge it, without ever considering that the battery needs to be warmed up first before being charged, which can take sometimes (if not plugged in overnight in freezing temps), because if the battery isn't conditioned, you could cause damage to it. But those examples are being used by the anti-BEV groups because people have no clue as to how BEVs actually work. 

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59 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

IMO Toyota's chairman is dealing in creating FUD about BEVs because they stepped on their dicks on getting a proper BEV out. 

 

That is correct silvrsvt. As bzcat said of Toyoda-san in the Electric Vehicle Discussion - Ford Related thread, he is intransigent and pigheaded. The answer is very clear (BEV), but Toyoda still refuses to acknowledge it.

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2 hours ago, blwnsmoke said:

Saw this on TikTok.  Yes I know, it's TikTok but would love to hear what others think of this bit.  It discussed the mining aspects required for electric cars.

 

How is mining any different then fracking and other things that are done for oil extraction?

Both are ugly and necessary if you want to keep your lifestyle the way it is.

 

Otherwise it's just saying your shit cake tastes worse then my shit cake. 

The other issue is people hear BEVs are more green-they are in some regards they are, but some are so sanctimonious that the opposite viewpoint uses that against them.

Boils down to this-BEVs over their lifetime create less pollution (maybe no pollution depending on how the electricity is generated) then a gas powered vehicle. The costs/pollution aspect of assembly is a wash IMO. Generally a BEV will be cheaper to operate long term due to lack of oil changes and other maintenance not being needed.  

BEVs can offer a better performance experience then the vast majority of gas powered cars (easier selling point for the average joe), but overall long distance range currently is an issue to a point, but its mitigated to a point that hell I need a break after driving 4-5 hours (roughly 300-400 miles) to use the bathroom or stretch out. If it takes 20-30 minutes to charge back to 80%, that is fine with me. 

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4 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

How is mining any different then fracking and other things that are done for oil extraction?

 

It's different because some of the minerals for batteries are not as universally available as oil, and depending on the country, it can take a decade or more to gain regulatory approvals to open a new mine. 

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On 1/6/2023 at 2:14 PM, Harley Lover said:

 

It's different because some of the minerals for batteries are not as universally available as oil, and depending on the country, it can take a decade or more to gain regulatory approvals to open a new mine. 

 

And for new oil exploration is any different?

If batteries can be made with different materials or less of rare ones, that will be the path going forward...you can't say that about oil. 

 

I just find that argument comical when both are shitty...with maybe BEV mining being slightly less shitty because battery material can actually be recycled/reused.

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Forget the vehicle side, although I could say something about general unappealing design for my taste and the high price.

 

As long as I do not have a charging solution at home because I live in an apartment and the workplace having just 1~2 spots for charging which is not viable, it seems I cannot jump to EV's even if the price and everything is right.

I will certainly consider a FHEV or a very efficient ICE though.

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On 12/29/2022 at 2:34 PM, twintornados said:

 

image.png.6ae0708e1d7ac05fd45224672c64d8b3.png

 

 

It's the truth. Toyota and the Japanese automotive industry overall are in a downward spiral amid the ongoing revolution with BEV. Unless executives like Akio Toyoda get their heads out of their asses, the companies they lead will face extinction. The World’s Love Affair With Japanese Cars Is Souring

Edited by rperez817
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1 hour ago, PS197TT said:

The CEO of Toyota is 100% right on this.  EVs are not ready for prime time and he recognizes that.  He wants a metered approach which is smart.  Perfect the technology and have a good product and work on the infrastructure before releasing it.  There is ZERO need to rush into EVs like we are.   Its foolish and only turning people off to EVs.

 

https://www.autoblog.com/2023/01/09/the-us-needs-8-times-more-charging-stations-by-2030-to-handle-the-coming-wave-of-electric-cars/

 

Requesting EVs match all the benefits of a comparable ICE vehicle is not unreasonable.  Modern ICE vehicles have set the bar very high and EVS are nowhere near meeting that bar.  They will get there, but forcing them down people's throats is ridiculous.


The horse is dead.  Stop beating it.

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 1/9/2023 at 5:51 PM, rperez817 said:

It's the truth. Toyota and the Japanese automotive industry overall are in a downward spiral amid the ongoing revolution with BEV. Unless executives like Akio Toyoda get their heads out of their asses, the companies they lead will face extinction. The World’s Love Affair With Japanese Cars Is Souring

 

Toyota Motor Corporation announced major changes in its executive structure today. Akio Toyoda will no longer be CEO as of April 1, 2023. Koji Sato will assume that position. TMC Announces Changes to Executive Structure | Corporate | Global Newsroom | Toyota Motor Corporation Official Global Website

 

Looks like Toyoda San tacitly acknowledges that Toyota is in an existential crisis nowadays. He was quoted as saying "I need to take a step back in order to let young people enter the new chapter of what the future of mobility should be like".

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  • 1 month later...
On 1/26/2023 at 7:28 PM, rperez817 said:

Toyota Motor Corporation announced major changes in its executive structure today. Akio Toyoda will no longer be CEO as of April 1, 2023. Koji Sato will assume that position. TMC Announces Changes to Executive Structure | Corporate | Global Newsroom | Toyota Motor Corporation Official Global Website

 

Looks like Toyoda San tacitly acknowledges that Toyota is in an existential crisis nowadays. He was quoted as saying "I need to take a step back in order to let young people enter the new chapter of what the future of mobility should be like".

 

Toyota engineers, to their credit, acknowledged just how far behind they are compared to Tesla after doing a teardown analysis of Model Y. Toyota Engineers After Tesla Model Y Teardown: "A Work Of Art" (insideevs.com)

 

Quote

Toyota is trying to understand what Tesla is doing right, and its engineers recently conducted a teardown study of the Tesla Model Y, according to a report from Automotive News.

What they found went beyond exposing key technological secrets of the world's best-selling electric vehicle model; engineers were reportedly stunned by the Model Y's simplistic yet efficient vehicle structure built with an advanced manufacturing prowess.

"Taking the skin off the Model Y, it was truly a work of art. It's unbelievable," said one Toyota executive who analyzed the Tesla part by part. They were particularly amazed by how different the latest versions of the Model Y were under the skin compared to earlier versions that looked the same on the outside. 

The teardown showed how far behind some old-guard automakers like Toyota really are when it comes to EVs. Engineers concluded that the Japanese automaker needs a great leap forward to catch up with Tesla's way of building electric vehicles.

They reportedly identified four main areas where Tesla has a big advantage over Toyota: dedicated platform, advanced battery, designated EV production site, and software-defined architecture. Tesla has all four of those, Toyota has none – at least not yet.

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