jpd80 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 (edited) So how does a third shift a Hermosillo help things if the C2 vehicles are still supplier constrained, what am I missing here? It’s pretty obvious with the ebb and flow of Escape production and sales that supply constraints are still hurting it as well as Bronco Sport and Maverick. Has Ford now been given guarantees of better C2 supply flow? Supply issues for Bronco/Ranger are appalling, these are money in the bank, all they have to do is fill the long lines of existing orders. For those of you wondering about Ranger balance out, there’s usually a defined number of builds set for the final 12 months supply before model change. So the new Ranger could be stuck in limbo until a certain number of current Rangers are built and given the shambolic parts supply, that could still be months away. If you have a Bronco Raptor order that seems to be on eternal hold, you may do better taking the $2,500 from Ford and laying that down on F150 Raptor as Ford’s priority seems to be Dearborn production. Maybe a two year lease that gets flipped for Bronco Raptor once production shortages end… Edited January 20, 2023 by jpd80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 1 hour ago, jpd80 said: once production shortages end… If they ever end….. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 27 minutes ago, fuzzymoomoo said: If they ever end….. I feel for you, only Ford can take a desirable product like Bronco with orders out the door and continue to find ways of not getting on top of supply and quality issues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 38 minutes ago, jpd80 said: I feel for you, only Ford can take a desirable product like Bronco with orders out the door and continue to find ways of not getting on top of supply and quality issues. Bronco quality issues have mostly been ironed out from what I’ve seen and heard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 45 minutes ago, jpd80 said: only Ford can take a desirable product like Bronco with orders out the door and continue to find ways of not getting on top of supply If only it were that easy to solve. It’s not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 29 minutes ago, akirby said: If only it were that easy to solve. It’s not. There’s one very specific instance I can think of off the top of my head that could be solved by bringing the part in house but thats highly unlikely at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, akirby said: If only it were that easy to solve. It’s not. At first, I was willing to give them a pass but as this goes on longer and longer, we begin to see that the problem with parts supply is also many items other than computer chips. Lots of areas that Ford is desperate to keep a lid on……. F150 Raptor and Bronco Raptor share a common suspension part but guess who is getting priority…… Ford actually tried building a run of BR without completed suspensions, what a disaster that was… I think that Ford will be forced to do more vertical integration of parts to make sure that critical path is not on non-roller product, the things have be able to be moved and transported. At the moment shifts at certain plants are being cancelled because JIT is broken or unreliable. Edited January 20, 2023 by jpd80 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 47 minutes ago, jpd80 said: I think that Ford will be forced to do more vertical integration of parts Didn’t Farley say that was the goal just a few months ago? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 47 minutes ago, jpd80 said: At first, I was willing to give them a pass but as this goes on longer and longer, we begin to see thatthe problem with parts supply is also many items other than computer chips. Ive been trying to tell you for the last two years that it’s not just microchips, Literally every industry is still experiencing parts shortages and backlogs. It takes 6 months to get computer racks and we’re at the top of the supplier’s priority list. I’m sure Ford has made bad decisions that made it worse but this isn’t a Ford problem and there is no easy solution. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmc523 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 2 hours ago, fuzzymoomoo said: There’s one very specific instance I can think of off the top of my head that could be solved by bringing the part in house but thats highly unlikely at this point. Nice hint if I'm reading the tea leaves correctly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, fuzzymoomoo said: Didn’t Farley say that was the goal just a few months ago? After decades of trying to save money outsourcing its parts, Ford finally understands how that dug holes in its business processes. Most of that rot began with spinning off Visteon but now extends to almost every aspect of Ford’s parts supply. I agree with castings but things like electronic components and even things like outsourcing stamping or even turn signal lamp modules can have devastating consequences. Just in time parts delivery crashed and burned years ago, the term now used as derision….. Edited January 21, 2023 by jpd80 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonj80 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 On 1/19/2023 at 4:25 PM, fuzzymoomoo said: You speak as if you know something I don’t ? I don’t know what you know so I can not confirm or deny that statement. This will be a big year for Ford Motor future from Farley’s plan starting to gain traction which will leave big marks all over the company this year. There is also a ton of updated product that will be hitting dealers over the next 12 months. The quality is the wildcard in all of this, the recall costs are blowing holes in everything. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 2 hours ago, akirby said: Ive been trying to tell you for the last two years that it’s not just microchips, Literally every industry is still experiencing parts shortages and backlogs. It takes 6 months to get computer racks and we’re at the top of the supplier’s priority list. I’m sure Ford has made bad decisions that made it worse but this isn’t a Ford problem and there is no easy solution. The reason that Ford is not in a hurry to spend more to fix internal issues is exactly because less builds and forced prioritisation of parts for builds has been a watershed moment for Ford. Annually, Ford build and sell something like 400k or 500k fewer vehicles but at higher ATP and net similar profits….so the impact of those terrible supply issues are of less consequence for Ford. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 27 minutes ago, jasonj80 said: I don’t know what you know so I can not confirm or deny that statement. This will be a big year for Ford Motor future from Farley’s plan starting to gain traction which will leave big marks all over the company this year. There is also a ton of updated product that will be hitting dealers over the next 12 months. The quality is the wildcard in all of this, the recall costs are blowing holes in everything. Are warranty cost blow outs perhaps offsetting savings made with less incentive spend? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonj80 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 47 minutes ago, jpd80 said: Are warranty cost blow outs perhaps offsetting savings made with less incentive spend? It’s not perhaps, it is Billions and it is killing the companies competitiveness. Warranty costs are brutal. In a traditional market, market it would have been ugly, they would have been able to manufacture considerably more vehicles with the defects and wouldn’t have have the pricing power and margins. In the first 9 months of 2020 Ford has 2 billion more in warranty costs than GM. While GM did recall more vehicles in 2021 (8 million) than Ford it still not a good thing recalling 5.4 million vehicles. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, jasonj80 said: It’s not perhaps, it is Billions and it is killing the companies competitiveness. Warranty costs are brutal. In a traditional market, market it would have been ugly, they would have been able to manufacture considerably more vehicles with the defects and wouldn’t have have the pricing power and margins. In the first 9 months of 2020 Ford has 2 billion more in warranty costs than GM. While GM did recall more vehicles in 2021 (8 million) than Ford it still not a good thing recalling 5.4 million vehicles. in Q1 of 2021, John Lawler said that Ford had made a $400 million improvement vs Q12020 but no doubt there have been a few tough quarters but never underestimate Ford’s ability to stage manage an issue. They ignored talking about quality for years and then reveal major warranty costs. They did this to themselves by that same old actuary thinking that dates back to pinto. They estimated that ignoring quality problems were cheaper than spending money on fixes that may or may not be needed (their thinking) Average transaction price for F Series in 2022 was $66,000 and there were 250k less F Series than usual and and roughly 500,000 fewer total vehicle sales last year than in 2018/2019, the last solid production years. So while you quote warranty costs from 2020, I would contend that perhaps the last couple of years will see less claims simply because fewer builds at higher prices…we’ll, maybe that’s what Ford brass think instead of you know, fixing problems.. Edited January 21, 2023 by jpd80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonj80 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 11 hours ago, jpd80 said: , I would contend that perhaps the last couple of years will see less claims simply because fewer builds at higher prices…we’ll, maybe that’s what Ford brass think instead of you know, fixing problems.. Less total claims for sure just on the volume, plus some can be completed with just a remote software update. But total number per vehicle can be high, the 2021 and 2022 vehicles have had a lot of recalls. My 2021 was in the shop for over eight weeks in 2021, and parents 2022 was in the shop for almost 2. They have to get that under control, from both a customer experience perspective as well as just raw costs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 On 1/20/2023 at 8:35 AM, akirby said: They just need to fix the franchise laws and allow the mfrs more control like every other industry. NADA Show 2023 kicks off in Dallas in the coming week. We'll see if the dealership lobby plans to do anything to fix their antiquated business model, franchise laws or otherwise. NADA Show | NADA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 27 minutes ago, rperez817 said: NADA Show 2023 kicks off in Dallas in the coming week. We'll see if the dealership lobby plans to do anything to fix their antiquated business model, franchise laws or otherwise. NADA Show | NADA Why on earth would the dealers want to change a system that gives them free reign? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzymoomoo Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 14 hours ago, jasonj80 said: I don’t know what you know so I can not confirm or deny that statement. This will be a big year for Ford Motor future from Farley’s plan starting to gain traction which will leave big marks all over the company this year. There is also a ton of updated product that will be hitting dealers over the next 12 months. The quality is the wildcard in all of this, the recall costs are blowing holes in everything. Yeah I know nothing about any of that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rperez817 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, akirby said: Why on earth would the dealers want to change a system that gives them free reign? Because if they don't change, the franchised new car dealership model will face extinction. NADA and its members can try milking the current system for all it's worth with franchise laws and the like, but the time for reckoning is coming. The following article was written pre-Covid 19. The automotive industry trends mentioned have only intensified since then. Why Car Dealerships Will be Extinct by 2025 (edgy.app) Edited January 21, 2023 by rperez817 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 1 hour ago, rperez817 said: Because if they don't change, the franchised new car dealership model will face extinction. NADA and its members can try milking the current system for all it's worth with franchise laws and the like, but the time for reckoning is coming. The following article was written pre-Covid 19. The automotive industry trends mentioned have only intensified since then. Why Car Dealerships Will be Extinct by 2025 (edgy.app) Intensified? Carvana is about to belly up and subscriptions to replace leases is DOA. Changes are necessary but dealers will not willingly allow 100% direct consumer sales unless forced by changes in state regulation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 9 hours ago, jasonj80 said: Less total claims for sure just on the volume, plus some can be completed with just a remote software update. But total number per vehicle can be high, the 2021 and 2022 vehicles have had a lot of recalls. My 2021 was in the shop for over eight weeks in 2021, and parents 2022 was in the shop for almost 2. They have to get that under control, from both a customer experience perspective as well as just raw costs. Agree, the perception of constant warranty issues undoes all the other good work and advances with vehicle production and profits. Beyond that, it never ceases to amaze me how forgiving the market is, just be seen to be doing the right thing by making good on warranty and recall repairs goes a long way towards taking the heat out of much of the annoyance (not everyone of course). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 (edited) 6 hours ago, akirby said: Intensified? Carvana is about to belly up and subscriptions to replace leases is DOA. Changes are necessary but dealers will not willingly allow 100% direct consumer sales unless forced by changes in state regulation. A big issue for Ford Motor is once they start an online reservation, it expects the dealers to take the flack from angry buyers hearing nothing on the ETA or location of their vehicle. That’s where dealers earn their money, assuring their buyers get their vehicles and that Ford doesn’t drop the ball. No one likes ADMs but I wonder if online ordering is an opportunity to build in more cash to the dealer to keep track of orders, there has to be a way for Ford and it’s dealers to move forward with this so that both parties get defined returns from each sale. Yes, it’s a less competitive model but if Ford, GM and Stellantis don’t get their act together, new comers like Tesla will slice and dice them. I just watched the Sandy Munro video below regarding Tesla profit margins, it shows how much money is in making and selling cars. Efficiency comes from having the right processes from start to finish and with Tesla, they are talking incredible underlying profits, that’s why a drop in price doesn’t hurt them. Edited January 21, 2023 by jpd80 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Dealers would make far more per vehicle with Ford selling online at MSRP. But they wouldn’t be able to compete with other dealers by lowering prices and they wouldn’t be able to rip off uneducated consumers. They’d have to compete on customer service. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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