Gurgeh Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 10 hours ago, silvrsvt said: In the grand scheme of things, the Edge has been replaced by the Mach E and the Bronco...both are roughly the same size (overall length) and appeal to demographic that the Edge was going for... I know I've chimed in at this point before, being one of the few Lincoln guys around here. What you lay out makes perfect sense -- for Ford. But what's up with Lincoln? So far, at least, only the BEV Aviator has been confirmed, to come out alongside its Explorer cousin. But after this year, Lincoln in North America will shrink down to a sad state of affairs with just three vehicles: Corsair, Aviator and Navigator. So far, FMC hasn't brought over to Lincoln any product parallel to Bronco or the Mach E (which as you note do fit into the Edge space pretty well); we have heard nothing about how they plan to fill the space being vacated by the Nautilus or the arrival of any new product. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 52 minutes ago, silvrsvt said: I think much of this was just trying to meet the EU sales requirements for BEVs and as they where going down that path, Ford discovered that VW wasn't doing that great of a job with costs (which VW has admitted to also) and they'd be better off going in house again with their own designs. Consider the circumstances of the deal as framed back in 2018, VW gives Ford access to its then new MEB toolkit which VW or their suppliers would supply Ford components and access to battery supply (why Hackett thought outsourcing batteries was enough). VW’s public problems with MEB build time and cost is directly because Lower Saxony owns a huge portion of VW and insisted on generous labor contract that saw only 20% automation of WV’s own MEB production line ……..their problems are not necessarily Ford’s an it’s possible that Cologne produced MEBs might be a lot cheaper to make than VW’s own products… 52 minutes ago, silvrsvt said: The big issue with BEVs is battery raw material costs-hopefully the increased production of cells and the introduction of other materials to be used as battery cells drops prices as time goes on, along with figuring out how to make the assembly process of unibody cheaper. I think VW locked themselves into tech that’s now four or five years old, a problem because a raging Tesla is showing everyone up on costs. I think Ford has a good mix of BEVs that suit right now in Europe and USA with own designs coming more to prominence as the VW stuff wanes in four or five years (expedience gives way to pragmatism). By then, I expect that costs for smaller BEVs will be more reasonable with improving designs and lower battery costs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 hour ago, Gurgeh said: I know I've chimed in at this point before, being one of the few Lincoln guys around here. What you lay out makes perfect sense -- for Ford. But what's up with Lincoln? So far, at least, only the BEV Aviator has been confirmed, to come out alongside its Explorer cousin. But after this year, Lincoln in North America will shrink down to a sad state of affairs with just three vehicles: Corsair, Aviator and Navigator. So far, FMC hasn't brought over to Lincoln any product parallel to Bronco or the Mach E (which as you note do fit into the Edge space pretty well); we have heard nothing about how they plan to fill the space being vacated by the Nautilus or the arrival of any new product. Right there with you. There were plans for both an Aviator and Corsair BEV originally but I lost track of all the changes. I think Farley shuffled the deck and reset the plan and platforms and timeline and Lincoln may suffer for it for a couple years. I plan to keep my 22 Nautilus until the wheels fall off. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonj80 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 hour ago, Gurgeh said: I know I've chimed in at this point before, being one of the few Lincoln guys around here. What you lay out makes perfect sense -- for Ford. But what's up with Lincoln? So far, at least, only the BEV Aviator has been confirmed, to come out alongside its Explorer cousin. But after this year, Lincoln in North America will shrink down to a sad state of affairs with just three vehicles: Corsair, Aviator and Navigator. So far, FMC hasn't brought over to Lincoln any product parallel to Bronco or the Mach E (which as you note do fit into the Edge space pretty well); we have heard nothing about how they plan to fill the space being vacated by the Nautilus or the arrival of any new product. Stay tuned for Lincoln plans this year; you'll start to see a better picture of where they are going. The lineup will be growing over the next few years not shrinking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 58 minutes ago, jasonj80 said: Stay tuned for Lincoln plans this year; you'll start to see a better picture of where they are going. The lineup will be growing over the next few years not shrinking. I think that’s expected - the question is when new products start arriving. If Nautilus dies early next year how long will Lincoln be left with only 3 vehicles? 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonj80 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 38 minutes ago, akirby said: I think that’s expected - the question is when new products start arriving. If Nautilus dies early next year how long will Lincoln be left with only 3 vehicles? Why do you think something will not be shown to replace it this year? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oac98 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 hour ago, jasonj80 said: Stay tuned for Lincoln plans this year; you'll start to see a better picture of where they are going. The lineup will be growing over the next few years not shrinking. They need at least one flagship sedan! Too many crossovers! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying68 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 2 hours ago, jasonj80 said: Why do you think something will not be shown to replace it this year? Whatever they show this year needs to be available for sale in 2024. The problem Ford has had is introducing vehicles and then having it take 2 to 3 years for it to actually hit the showroom floor. I don't understand why they don't already have a Mach-e derived BEV for Lincoln. The incremental volume wouldn't be that great and would easily earn more than each Mach-e sale. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ares Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Lincoln needs something soon. The last totally new product was the Corsair in 2019. The most interesting addition in the lineup was the Aviator back then. 3 vehicles are not enough and a bit concerning to someone who thought they were entering a renaissance. Adding an EV might bring Lincoln to the future, but would it save the brand? I think it will have to be executed very well to be a Lyriq competitor. It needs to be both attractive & practical for the average Lincoln buyer, unless they are hoping on attracting a whole new demographic with the EVs. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSchicago Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 2 hours ago, Oacjay98 said: They need at least one flagship sedan! Too many crossovers! I guess I'm in the minority, I won't buy a crossover. The modern day soccer mom mobile. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 4 hours ago, jasonj80 said: Why do you think something will not be shown to replace it this year? Last I checked dealers can’t sell 2025 models in 2023. And I don’t see EV aviator showing up for at least a year after Nautilus goes bye bye. I understand the logistics and why it might need to take that long but that doesn’t make it less of a problem. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 2 hours ago, LSchicago said: I guess I'm in the minority, I won't buy a crossover. The modern day soccer mom mobile. Edge ST, Explorer ST and Bronco Sport respectfully disagree. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSchicago Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 32 minutes ago, akirby said: Edge ST, Explorer ST and Bronco Sport respectfully disagree. Of those I like the Explorer ST, but still won't buy one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 31 minutes ago, LSchicago said: Of those I like the Explorer ST, but still won't buy one. Nobody said you had to buy one or like them just don’t call them soccer mom mobiles. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSchicago Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 29 minutes ago, akirby said: Nobody said you had to buy one or like them just don’t call them soccer mom mobiles. Didn't mean to offend anybody. Just my take. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akirby Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 hour ago, LSchicago said: Didn't mean to offend anybody. Just my take. We’d have less arguments if people chose better words to describe their personal preferences such as “I like” or “I don’t like” instead of making semi objective statements that may not be true. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Could GE2 based Utilities be expanded to include LWB and SWB versions of Explorer/Aviator that also cover Edge/Nautilus? Kinda like what Ford was planning with ICE CD6 versions? That would make sense and improve scales of economy….. Also, there’s been no word on BEV Expedition/Navigator, I was expecting this to be a heavy share with current Lightning… 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gurgeh Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 6 hours ago, jasonj80 said: Stay tuned for Lincoln plans this year; you'll start to see a better picture of where they are going. The lineup will be growing over the next few years not shrinking. Sure, I expect it will grow at some point in the next few years. But there is no question that, at least for North America (which doesn't get the Zephyr or retain the Nautilus), it will be shrinking down to three vehicles before it starts to grow again round about MY2025. That will be a tough period for the Lincoln brand. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bzcat Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 2 hours ago, jpd80 said: Could GE2 based Utilities be expanded to include LWB and SWB versions of Explorer/Aviator that also cover Edge/Nautilus? Kinda like what Ford was planning with ICE CD6 versions? That would make sense and improve scales of economy….. Also, there’s been no word on BEV Expedition/Navigator, I was expecting this to be a heavy share with current Lightning… I don't think Ford will do LWB and SWB Explorer. But there will definitely be multiple sizes of GE2 models for sale. Gen 2 Mach E could have a long roof companion that could be called Edge. And I'm sure Lincoln will get a version of gen 2 Mach E too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 27 minutes ago, bzcat said: I don't think Ford will do LWB and SWB Explorer. But there will definitely be multiple sizes of GE2 models for sale. Gen 2 Mach E could have a long roof companion that could be called Edge. And I'm sure Lincoln will get a version of gen 2 Mach E too. Just exploring those points.. LWB/SWB was an overly simplistic way of exploring GE2 BEV Edge/Explorer using common extended 3-row tophat, your thoughts on using a variation of Mach E for Edge and perhaps Nautilus is interesting with regards size differentiation…….the point is that there are choices where before there were few. The big hurt with tax credits is price threshold on BEV compacts ($55k) and a lack if third row provision above that in mid-sized vehicles. That is where the Cadillac Lyriq is running into tax credit difficulty with no third-row. So yeah, lovely vehicles but Ford, please watch and learn, a BEV Edge off Mach E / Nautilus are possible but please with a third-row for tax credits and, added utility for buyers. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bzcat Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Exactly... the interpretation of the tax credit likely means every EV from now on will have 3 rows of seat to qualify it as a "truck", no matter the size. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmc523 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 On 1/26/2023 at 9:38 AM, jasonj80 said: Why do you think something will not be shown to replace it this year? we haven’t seen any indication of anything coming before the “Aviator” BEV. Rumor or otherwise. as others have pointed out, unless they’ve been able to keep it completely secret like the GT (unlikely), there’s going to be a gap between now/when Nautilus dies and when the BEVs show up, which sucks because Lincoln finally got it’s lineup fully updated. they certainly have been advertising the Star concept on TV a lot though, which seems like an odd “look at me/something you can’t buy” move. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 (edited) 9 hours ago, bzcat said: Exactly... the interpretation of the tax credit likely means every EV from now on will have 3 rows of seat to qualify it as a "truck", no matter the size. Correct, those swept back two-row compact crossovers are being graded as cars by the government which keeps manufacturers on their toes. Now if Ford was to do another vehicles on the bones of Mach E (117” WB 74” wide) then there’s plenty of space to get a decent third row packaged in there…although, I remember that Edge mule with bigger, wider GE2 skateboard under it, that muleouldprobbly go multiple way…. I’m glad that Ford is back to own design BEVs, it tells me that any reason for using MEB is no longer there. GE2 and CE1 probably make a lot more sense in terms of controlling cost that bleed to external suppliers, the more Ford does in-house, the better. Edited January 28, 2023 by jpd80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvrsvt Posted January 27, 2023 Author Share Posted January 27, 2023 6 hours ago, rmc523 said: we haven’t seen any indication of anything coming before the “Aviator” BEV. Rumor or otherwise. as others have pointed out, unless they’ve been able to keep it completely secret like the GT (unlikely), there’s going to be a gap between now/when Nautilus dies and when the BEVs show up, which sucks because Lincoln finally got it’s lineup fully updated. they certainly have been advertising the Star concept on TV a lot though, which seems like an odd “look at me/something you can’t buy” move. IIRC he does work for Ford…so I’m expecting that some sort of roadmap for Lincoln should pop up in the next 11 months or so that will show where they are planing on going in the next 3-5 years. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpd80 Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 1 hour ago, silvrsvt said: IIRC he does work for Ford…so I’m expecting that some sort of roadmap for Lincoln should pop up in the next 11 months or so that will show where they are planing on going in the next 3-5 years. And we know how terrible Ford is at “selling the future” with Ford and Lincoln. I get why they don’t want to talk about future products but when it hurts customer retention, you gotta think how Mulally was able to talk and keep interest, by selling the dream. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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