Ford February 2023 Sales - Up 21.9%

[Dequindre]

18 hours ago, bzcat said:

 

Well... Ford sold 624 last month and has 1300 in stock so roughly 2 months worth of sales. It will functionally be sold out by start of summer but I'm sure we will see a couple of random registrations throughout the rest of the year.

 

Huge jump in Transit delivery this month!

 

Edge just keeps on trucking despite one foot in the coffin. Keep waiting for that Mach E production bump to take over from Edge... so far not happening.

 

Escape sales have fallen off the cliff. I thought it was due to the facelift and lack of inventory but seems like Ford is just choosing not to build any. Bronco Sport inventory level is actually higher than Escape now thanks to that extra shift at Hermosillo. 

 

Ranger sales probably hit rock bottom due to end of production and shifting of volume over to Bronco. 2024 launch is right around the corner. 

After renting a Bronco Sport for the first time this week (Enterprise actually bought it off a dealer lot), I can see why Escape sales are in freefall. Everything about the Bronco Sport just seems so much more well thought-out than the Escape. It has a lot of that rugged Bronco character too. My parents have a current generation Escape, and the cost cutting is evident compared to the last generation. 

[rmc523]

18 hours ago, bzcat said:

 

Well... Ford sold 624 last month and has 1300 in stock so roughly 2 months worth of sales. It will functionally be sold out by start of summer but I'm sure we will see a couple of random registrations throughout the rest of the year.

 

Huge jump in Transit delivery this month!

 

Edge just keeps on trucking despite one foot in the coffin. Keep waiting for that Mach E production bump to take over from Edge... so far not happening.

 

Escape sales have fallen off the cliff. I thought it was due to the facelift and lack of inventory but seems like Ford is just choosing not to build any. Bronco Sport inventory level is actually higher than Escape now thanks to that extra shift at Hermosillo. 

 

Ranger sales probably hit rock bottom due to end of production and shifting of volume over to Bronco. 2024 launch is right around the corner. 

 

For me, part of Edge's appeal - aside from the medium size - is that it sits higher, whereas Mach E sits lower.  I don't know how much that affects others decisions, though.

 

Regarding Escape - I think the factory has been paused for a few weeks now, that certainly can't help things.  I have yet to see a refreshed version.  Also, I still think they cheapened it out too much with the redesign (the full 2020 redesign).  They did the opposite of what needed to be done.

[rmc523]

Also, got around to updating my charts....

 

[rmc523]

14 hours ago, jpd80 said:

F Series just under 55,000 sales in February plus the 1,300 odd Lightnings is a reasonable result but you can tell that maxing out F Series production and sales is still a problem as Ford is back to 135,000 inventory which is too tight to achieve +70,000 monthly sales.

Even Escape was crippled with +6,000 sales when normally, 16,000-20,000 in good times. All models are struggling except maybe Explorer with 19,000 sales with 46,000 inventory - maybe there’s more than a few incomplete builds in those numbers?

 

Just FYI, those 1,300 Lightning sales are included in the 55k "F-series" umbrella, but just separately notated to call out BEV sales - this is why they're italicized and listed as a "memo", and not as their own line item.

 

Same goes for E-Transit.

 

Mach E is its own model/line item, though.

Edited March 4, 2023 by rmc523

[rmc523]

AND.  How could ICE sales have INCREASED?!?!?!   I was told that was completely IMPOSSIBLE as everyone is flocking to BEVs in droves and ICE was dead!!

Edited March 4, 2023 by rmc523

[jpd80]

10 hours ago, rmc523 said:

 

Just FYI, those 1,300 Lightning sales are included in the 55k "F-series" umbrella, but just separately notated to call out BEV sales - this is why they're italicized and listed as a "memo", and not as their own line item.

Thank you, that’s why we have you to keep the facts straight.

I get the distinct feeling that ramping up all F Series production and sales is gonna take longer than some are expecting.

 

10 hours ago, rmc523 said:

Same goes for E-Transit.

 

Mach E is its own model/line item, though.

Sorry, missed the way Ford did the breakout of  of combined production,

E Transit sales are still quite modest, wonder GM’s BrightDrop unit is pinching some…

Ford keeps talking about Mach E demand in North America and Europe, about time it got on with the job.

[tbone]

On 3/3/2023 at 5:43 PM, fuzzymoomoo said:

Not saying it will be that extreme but Dodge did manage to sell a Dart last year…. Just saying. 

I do recall a bunch of an Avengers that kept showing up way after production ended.  

[2005Explorer]

On 3/4/2023 at 8:28 AM, rmc523 said:

AND.  How could ICE sales have INCREASED?!?!?!   I was told that was completely IMPOSSIBLE as everyone is flocking to BEVs in droves and ICE was dead!!

Right now BEVs are very popular with early adopters. Once those folks have filled up on them the real task will be getting the general car buying public to start buying them in mass quantities all across the country. I know it’ll eventually be forced by the government whether we like it or not, but if free market had it’s way, BEVs have a long ways to go outside of urban areas to be the vehicle of choice. I’m still pro-hybrid and ICE at this point where I live and will likely be for years to come. Winters are long and cold here and charging stations hard to find. I like lots of heat on my drives when it’s cold and don’t want to worry about range when I crank it to 80.

Edited March 6, 2023 by 2005Explorer

[Rick73]

10 hours ago, 2005Explorer said:

Right now BEVs are very popular with early adopters. Once those folks have filled up on them the real task will be getting the general car buying public to start buying them in mass quantities all across the country. I know it’ll eventually be forced by the government whether we like it or not, but if free market had it’s way, BEVs have a long ways to go outside of urban areas to be the vehicle of choice. I’m still pro-hybrid and ICE at this point where I live and will likely be for years to come. Winters are long and cold here and charging stations hard to find. I like lots of heat on my drives when it’s cold and don’t want to worry about range when I crank it to 80.

Ford will likely continue to build what buyers want, which include gas and hybrids, for a long time.  Recent media release is interesting.

 

https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2023/03/03/ford-increasing-production-of-popular-electric--gas--hybrid-vehi.html

 

 

Don't forget collectively we are the government, so why would we force ourselves to do something we don’t want?  If enough voters don’t want to be “forced” into BEVs, politicians trying to get elected or re-elected will act accordingly.  That’s not to say it’s necessarily best for us, but people often get what the majority wants, though sometimes it takes a long time.  Presently there seems to be much support for BEVs, at least on a conceptual level, but in my opinion that could  change if ownership adversely affects voters directly.  BEV sales are still too low to know if it will make a political difference.

[silvrsvt]

1 hour ago, Rick73 said:

Don't forget collectively we are the government, so why would we force ourselves to do something we don’t want?  If enough voters don’t want to be “forced” into BEVs, politicians trying to get elected or re-elected will act accordingly.  That’s not to say it’s necessarily best for us, but people often get what the majority wants, though sometimes it takes a long time.  Presently there seems to be much support for BEVs, at least on a conceptual level, but in my opinion that could  change if ownership adversely affects voters directly.  BEV sales are still too low to know if it will make a political difference.

 

But your also assuming that BEVs won't improve in the next 12 years either. 

 

Look at where we at in 1974 vs 1986 when it came to performance vehicles when smog and unleaded gas came into being. 

 

Edited March 6, 2023 by silvrsvt

[rmc523]

On 3/4/2023 at 9:01 PM, jpd80 said:

Thank you, that’s why we have you to keep the facts straight.

I get the distinct feeling that ramping up all F Series production and sales is gonna take longer than some are expecting.

 

Sorry, missed the way Ford did the breakout of  of combined production,

E Transit sales are still quite modest, wonder GM’s BrightDrop unit is pinching some…

Ford keeps talking about Mach E demand in North America and Europe, about time it got on with the job.

 

Yeah, it took a bit to notice that difference - honestly, if I hadn't built the charts and tried adding lightning to it and the final truck tally (which Ford no longer shows in their new presentation format) wasn't matching up, I probably wouldn't have noticed.

 

I don't think I've seen a single Brightdrop yet.....I really don't understand why that was made its own brand and not just an "E-Xpress".  I've only seen 1 E-Transit that I can recall.  I actually see Transit Connect being a better EV market in the short term.....obviously Ford's TC plans seem up in the air, though.

 

Regarding Mach E, I'm seeing a lot of them around, but I struggle to see it getting to the volumes they want and are projecting......maybe once Edge goes away, and Mach E becomes the "only" midsize 2 row (Bronco is a different animal)?  I'll point back to ride height being an appealing part of Edge, though.

[Rick73]

3 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

But your also assuming that BEVs won't improve in the next 12 years either. 

I made no such assumption that I’m aware of.

 

My assumption is that excluding Tesla, BEV sales are still very low to conclude much of anything longer term.  If I’m reading above data correctly for February, combined Mach E, Lightning, and E-Transit sales are about 3,500, which is less than half of Maverick alone.  It is not much, especially when Ford say they are #2 behind only Tesla in BEV sales, meaning GM and others are even less.

 

I only know one BEV owner well, and he’s wealthy so not representative of most Americans.  He also chose a $100,000 car freely, not because he was forced.  I honestly don’t know how Americans will react one way or the other.  I think it is too early to predict sales preferences 12 years from now.

 

 

[silvrsvt]

43 minutes ago, Rick73 said:

My assumption is that excluding Tesla, BEV sales are still very low to conclude much of anything longer term.  If I’m reading above data correctly for February, combined Mach E, Lightning, and E-Transit sales are about 3,500, which is less than half of Maverick alone.  It is not much, especially when Ford say they are #2 behind only Tesla in BEV sales, meaning GM and others are even less.

 

Part of the reason they are low is because of battery production limitations...that will be addressed by the end of the decade.  It's hard to sell things that you can't make. 
 

[bzcat]

1 in 5 vehicles sold in California last year was EV (in the 4th quarter, EV+PHEV was 1 in 4 sales) so we are already passed the early adopter stage. in 2017, EV sales was about 3% of total sales in California so basically California is 5 years ahead of the rest of the country. So I can see Ford comfortably selling 1/3 BEV and 2/3 ICE/hybrids by 2030. Perhaps even 1/2... but to say 2030 Ford will reach 100% EV sales in the US is bit aggressive. A lot will depend on how good the Explorer and next gen Lightning are... I hope that 24 months delay on Explorer is worth it. 

 

https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/zero-emission-vehicle-and-infrastructure-statistics/new-zev-sales

 

https://insideevs.com/news/651899/california-plugin-car-sales-2022q4/

Edited March 6, 2023 by bzcat

[akirby]

2 hours ago, Rick73 said:

I made no such assumption that I’m aware of.

 

My assumption is that excluding Tesla, BEV sales are still very low to conclude much of anything longer term.  If I’m reading above data correctly for February, combined Mach E, Lightning, and E-Transit sales are about 3,500, which is less than half of Maverick alone.  It is not much, especially when Ford say they are #2 behind only Tesla in BEV sales, meaning GM and others are even less.

 

I only know one BEV owner well, and he’s wealthy so not representative of most Americans.  He also chose a $100,000 car freely, not because he was forced.  I honestly don’t know how Americans will react one way or the other.  I think it is too early to predict sales preferences 12 years from now.

There is far more demand for BEVs than can be produced right now.  There is a plateau based on price and charging limitations and geography but we’re nowhere near that yet.  My guess is that plateau is around 2M vehicles a year and won’t go up significantly until we get next Gen batteries and low to mid $20k prices and a lot more public chargers.

 

Whether you believe the catastrophic predictions of climate change or not switching away from ICE and gasoline, oil and air pollution to electricity which should become more and more renewable is a great goal.   The only thing I disagree is how fast we can or should try to get there.

[jpd80]

11 hours ago, Rick73 said:

I made no such assumption that I’m aware of.

 

My assumption is that excluding Tesla, BEV sales are still very low to conclude much of anything longer term.  If I’m reading above data correctly for February, combined Mach E, Lightning, and E-Transit sales are about 3,500, which is less than half of Maverick alone.  It is not much, especially when Ford say they are #2 behind only Tesla in BEV sales, meaning GM and others are even less.

 

I only know one BEV owner well, and he’s wealthy so not representative of most Americans.  He also chose a $100,000 car freely, not because he was forced.  I honestly don’t know how Americans will react one way or the other.  I think it is too early to predict sales preferences 12 years from now.

 

It’s also likely that China and European markets will be full in on BEVs more quickly than North America,

that may actually ease the transition to a point where a faster adoption rate happens - better batteries,

more range lower costs and generally, better designs than these first Gen mass production examples…

[rperez817]

On 3/4/2023 at 10:28 AM, rmc523 said:

How could ICE sales have INCREASED?!?!?!   I was told that was completely IMPOSSIBLE as everyone is flocking to BEVs in droves and ICE was dead!!

 

The 1st quarter of 2022 was characterized by supply chain issues that resulted in a backlog of Ford new vehicle orders, including ICE vehicles. Ford made progress addressing those issues in the latter part of 2022 into the first couple months of 2023 and got more and more vehicles to customers. Hence the sales increase for Ford ICE vehicles.

 

What you mentioned about long-term trends in the global automotive industry is correct. New car buyers are definitely flocking to BEV in droves. Automakers continue to have a hard time keeping up with demand for BEV, Ford is no exception. And the ICE age is indeed coming to an end over the next decade or so.

[Chrisgb]

Electricity is a wonderful thing, but as enthusiastic as most folks were about it, "overnight success" took approximately 70 years.

That is the time span from when the first operational generating station lit 82 homes in New York City in 1882, to 1952 when 98% of US households were electrified. I believe that the 21st Century will be remembered for getting carbon-based emissions reduced to nil, by incorporating a number of strategies. Perhaps we will perfect nuclear fusion by then. But I think the ICE age will still be with us well into the latter half of the century. This is an automotive forum so BEVs are a hot topic, but we will still have diesel planes, trains and ships. You can Google the data as to how much pollution is generated by cargo ships, airliners, or locomotives; sobering to staggering depending on your point of view. Getting private citizens "off the pump" is easier to do than it is for large energy intensive multinationals, but that's where a significant, if not majority of the smog is coming from. It doesn't matter to me what is or isn't causing climate change; climate gonna change regardless of what humans do. But I believe we should be trying harder to be better stewards of the finite resources we have left.

[rmc523]

17 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

The 1st quarter of 2022 was characterized by supply chain issues that resulted in a backlog of Ford new vehicle orders, including ICE vehicles. Ford made progress addressing those issues in the latter part of 2022 into the first couple months of 2023 and got more and more vehicles to customers. Hence the sales increase for Ford ICE vehicles.

 

What you mentioned about long-term trends in the global automotive industry is correct. New car buyers are definitely flocking to BEV in droves. Automakers continue to have a hard time keeping up with demand for BEV, Ford is no exception. And the ICE age is indeed coming to an end over the next decade or so.

 

They are not flocking in droves, despite what you insist.

 

struggling to keep up with BEV demand =/= ICE death.

[Rangers09]

21 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

New car buyers are definitely flocking to BEV in droves. 

 

Selling a mere 3,500 in a month is hardly my vision of buyers flocking to BEV's in droves. Compared to the total number of vehicles that Ford sells, I'll suggest 3,500 is more representative of a trickle of buyers.

 

Ford sells about twice as many F-series every month as they sell BEV's over a full year. Hardly indicative of buyers flocking to BEV's.

[ausrutherford]

On 3/6/2023 at 12:57 PM, rmc523 said:

 

Yeah, it took a bit to notice that difference - honestly, if I hadn't built the charts and tried adding lightning to it and the final truck tally (which Ford no longer shows in their new presentation format) wasn't matching up, I probably wouldn't have noticed.

 

I don't think I've seen a single Brightdrop yet.....I really don't understand why that was made its own brand and not just an "E-Xpress".  I've only seen 1 E-Transit that I can recall.  I actually see Transit Connect being a better EV market in the short term.....obviously Ford's TC plans seem up in the air, though.

 

Regarding Mach E, I'm seeing a lot of them around, but I struggle to see it getting to the volumes they want and are projecting......maybe once Edge goes away, and Mach E becomes the "only" midsize 2 row (Bronco is a different animal)?  I'll point back to ride height being an appealing part of Edge, though.

 

I think a lot of the Mach E production is also for Europe exports as well. 

[rperez817]

On 3/6/2023 at 12:57 PM, rmc523 said:

I actually see Transit Connect being a better EV market in the short term.....obviously Ford's TC plans seem up in the air, though.

 

Ford seems to have given up on Transit Connect. The current version in Europe, called Tourneo Connect, is a rebadged VW Caddy (MQB).

 

Ford's BEV van efforts are currently focused on E-Transit and E-Transit Custom.

[GearheadGrrrl]

Agreed, Ford seems to be orphaning Transit/Tourneo Connect, despite loyal customers waiting for new ones to be delivered and stalking used ones. Transit is bigger than Econoline and can't even clear a standard 7 foot tall garage door, creating an opening for Transit/Tourneo Custom in North America, it's already capable of electrification and hopefully Ford will bring it here.

[rmc523]

5 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

Ford seems to have given up on Transit Connect. The current version in Europe, called Tourneo Connect, is a rebadged VW Caddy (MQB).

 

Ford's BEV van efforts are currently focused on E-Transit and E-Transit Custom.

 

I think the plan was to produce a new generation in Mexico, but as always with Ford, its plans have changed.

 

I think it would be a mistake to abandon the segment they own.

[silvrsvt]

2 hours ago, rmc523 said:

I think it would be a mistake to abandon the segment they own.

 

The sales for smaller cargo vans like the Transit Connect have evaporated...that is why all the manufacturers are killing them off. 

 

Plus the Maverick can prob do 80-90% with a cap on it that the Transit Connect did for Fleet vehicles.