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March '23 Sales/Chart


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12 hours ago, Oacjay98 said:

I don’t think MAP is in jeopardy either anytime soon. Bronco and ranger are going into the 2030s I believe. All of this is just kinda for the sake of speculation. I really hope that doesn’t happen but I see some consolidation in this company's future. Building BOC means to me some plants are going down in the future.  I saw on autoforecast solutions which isn’t always accurate that’s forsure that BOC is slated to get some bronco and ranger EV down the road which we know is subject to change and HAS changed with this T3 thing. 

 

I think the issue is how much more efficient the BEV plants are going to be actually vs ICE plant when it comes to producing products. I was trying to figure out Teslas production numbers, but I'm unsure if the numbers I saw are world wide or US sales alone. 

 

I'm not sure if BOC would be able to handle all of the Ranger/Bronco and Thunder (that is what I'm calling it) production in the future. 

 

If Flat Rock closes, where is the Mustang going to go? I don't think they will build it Mexico with the Mach E...only thing that might make sense is the BEV version moves to LAP with whatever the Escape/Corsair BEV is going to be.  

 

Also is Ford planning different vehicles to add to the lineup?

Edited by silvrsvt
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45 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

If MAP closes, where is the Mustang going to go? I don't think they will build it Mexico with the Mach E...only thing that might make sense is the BEV version moves to LAP with whatever the Escape/Corsair BEV is going to be.  


What does MAP have to do with Mustang? 

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5 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

 

I think the issue is how much more efficient the BEV plants are going to be actually vs ICE plant when it comes to producing products. I was trying to figure out Teslas production numbers, but I'm unsure if the numbers I saw are world wide or US sales alone. 

 

I'm not sure if BOC would be able to handle all of the Ranger/Bronco and Thunder (that is what I'm calling it) production in the future. 

 

If Flat Rock closes, where is the Mustang going to go? I don't think they will build it Mexico with the Mach E...only thing that might make sense is the BEV version moves to LAP with whatever the Escape/Corsair BEV is going to be.  

 

Also is Ford planning different vehicles to add to the lineup?

Good points, they probably do have additional products in the pipeline so maybe after the uaw contracts more light will be shed on their future planning.

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4 hours ago, Oacjay98 said:

Good points, they probably do have additional products in the pipeline so maybe after the uaw contracts more light will be shed on their future planning.

 

Ford is always going to withhold future product plans when contract renewals are coming up soon for negotiation. They'll hold back on making announcements about product or plant plants until necessary and reserve unannounced plans as part of the contract negotiation process. 

 

Silvrsvt's point has to be a big factor going forward about how efficient BEV vehicle production is going forward in determining BEV production labor requirements. 

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1 hour ago, ice-capades said:

Silvrsvt's point has to be a big factor going forward about how efficient BEV vehicle production is going forward in determining BEV production labor requirements. 


Unless it’s for accounting purposes I don’t at all understand why the BEV production needs be separate though. We built every type of powertrain at the same time down the same line for 6 years at MAP: BEV, PHEV, FHEV and ICE. And 4 different ICE engines at the same time at that

Edited by fuzzymoomoo
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41 minutes ago, fuzzymoomoo said:


Unless it’s for accounting purposes I don’t at all understand why the BEV production needs be separate though. We built every type of powertrain at the same time down the same line for 6 years at MAP: BEV, PHEV, FHEV and ICE. And 4 different ICE engines at the same time at that

Especially if everything is supposed to be ev’s in a couple of years. Why break them out when they are just going to come back together?

Edited by T-dubz
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1 hour ago, T-dubz said:

Especially if everything is supposed to be ev’s in a couple of years. Why break them out when they are just going to come back together?

 

Its not going to be short term...Ford will be producing ICE products at least till 2035, unless the market changes more than that in the meantime.

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1 hour ago, fuzzymoomoo said:


Unless it’s for accounting purposes I don’t at all understand why the BEV production needs be separate though. We built every type of powertrain at the same time down the same line for 6 years at MAP: BEV, PHEV, FHEV and ICE. And 4 different ICE engines at the same time at that

 

Right now, I think the biggest factor that Ford and the other OEM's are trying to figure out is the reduced labor requirements for BEV vehicle production. The labor issue will be a major part of the contract negotiations with the UAW trying to preserve and maintain as many positions as possible. The plant schedules and assignments will be secondary, as I expect it'll be several years yet before Ford is able to determine its long-term facility needs as the BEV transition gain momentum. 

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40 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

Ford will be producing ICE products at least till 2035, unless the market changes more than that in the meantime.

 

The market has already "changed more than that" in terms of an accelerated transition to BEV. The rapid pace of that transition actually took Jim Farley by surprise last year, prompting him to say the following.

I mean it’s gone so much faster than people think. So much faster than the charging experience. So much faster than the purchase price. So much faster than you would have predicted.

 

2035 is Ford's internal target for a 100% zero-emissions vehicle lineup (almost all BEV) in "all major markets" where the company operates. But at the rate things are going now, and based on the even more rapid rate for EV adoption that will occur when facilities like Blue Oval City start production, it wouldn't be surprising if Ford stops production of new ICE vehicles closer to 2030, at least for those "major markets" such as U.S., Europe, and China.

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3 hours ago, ice-capades said:

 

Ford is always going to withhold future product plans when contract renewals are coming up soon for negotiation. They'll hold back on making announcements about product or plant plants until necessary and reserve unannounced plans as part of the contract negotiation process. 

 

Silvrsvt's point has to be a big factor going forward about how efficient BEV vehicle production is going forward in determining BEV production labor requirements. 

I know that all too well. Still waiting for Ford to tell us in Oakville what their exact plans are although they say we will be informed in a couple of weeks. Contract negotiations are always a factor but our deal was negotiated in 2020. I get your point and would have to agree.

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2 hours ago, rperez817 said:

The market has already "changed more than that" in terms of an accelerated transition to BEV. The rapid pace of that transition actually took Jim Farley by surprise last year, prompting him to say the following.

 

2035 is Ford's internal target for a 100% zero-emissions vehicle lineup (almost all BEV) in "all major markets" where the company operates. But at the rate things are going now, and based on the even more rapid rate for EV adoption that will occur when facilities like Blue Oval City start production, it wouldn't be surprising if Ford stops production of new ICE vehicles closer to 2030, at least for those "major markets" such as U.S., Europe, and China.

 

I wouldn't be sure of that...the next few years should be interesting on how they play out..apparently Tesla is starting to run into sluggishness in sales, but that could also be from increased competition in the market too. 

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39 minutes ago, silvrsvt said:

apparently Tesla is starting to run into sluggishness in sales, but that could also be from increased competition in the market too. 

 

Tesla is indeed facing increased competition, including from Ford. But their commanding lead in U.S. BEV sales remains strong. As indicated in the Cox Automotive analysis earlier in this thread, Tesla's U.S. market share growth from Q1 2022 to Q1 2023 was the highest of any automaker. 

 

I do agree with you that the next few years will be interesting in terms of how things play out with the transition to BEV. In particular, it will be interesting to see if Ford can sustain the #2 position in U.S. BEV sales overall and #1 for BEV pickup truck and van sales well into the middle of the decade as Jim Farley is hoping for. Hopefully GM overtaking Ford for BEV sales in Q1 2023 is only a temporary blip.

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11 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

Hopefully GM overtaking Ford for BEV sales in Q1 2023 is only a temporary blip.


It was the two Hummers that put them over ;)

 

Ford had the Lightning shutdown due to the battery issue, as well as trying to ramp up the Mach-E. 

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12 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

 

I wouldn't be sure of that...the next few years should be interesting on how they play out..apparently Tesla is starting to run into sluggishness in sales, but that could also be from increased competition in the market too. 

drove by the local franchise in Charlotte, NC yesterday and it appeared the lot was completely full and a new truck load just pulled in.  It appeared to me they are building more than they can sell by this 1 data point.

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35 minutes ago, tarheels23 said:

drove by the local franchise in Charlotte, NC yesterday and it appeared the lot was completely full and a new truck load just pulled in.  It appeared to me they are building more than they can sell by this 1 data point.


They were #1 in sales and still very few incentives so I don’t think they’re overbuilding yet.

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1 hour ago, silvrsvt said:

This is the article I saw about the Tesla oversupply-take it for what it is worth


They mentioned S and X most troubling.  Could it be that two most expensive models, combined with higher interest rates, have reduced affordability to too few buyers?  Their best sellers are also the two lowest cost, but even those could run into similar issues on price.

 

Tesla needs a lower-cost option below Model 3, though it may be difficult to lower cost significantly by downsizing alone.  The entry level Model 3 is already pretty basic.  It will be interesting to see if the Model 2 (by whatever name they give it) is delayed even more.  They have talked of an affordable Tesla for years.

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1 hour ago, Rick73 said:


They mentioned S and X most troubling.  Could it be that two most expensive models, combined with higher interest rates, have reduced affordability to too few buyers?  Their best sellers are also the two lowest cost, but even those could run into similar issues on price.

 

Tesla needs a lower-cost option below Model 3, though it may be difficult to lower cost significantly by downsizing alone.  The entry level Model 3 is already pretty basic.  It will be interesting to see if the Model 2 (by whatever name they give it) is delayed even more.  They have talked of an affordable Tesla for years.

 

Buyers and especially luxury buyers want the latest and greatest.  Model S has been around since 2012 (11 years now), and Model X has been around since 2015 (8 years now), and while they removed the faux grill on S and did give them both new dashes last year, they've largely gone unchanged in that time span.  That certainly has something to do with it in addition to some of the factors you mentioned.

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