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March '23 Sales/Chart


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8 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

This is the article I saw about the Tesla oversupply-take it for what it is worth
 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk-swelling-inventories-unsold-142222021.html

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Are those vehicles actually unsold?

This is the first time that I’m hearing that Tesla is building stock vehicles without a customer order.

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7 hours ago, rmc523 said:

 

Buyers and especially luxury buyers want the latest and greatest.  Model S has been around since 2012 (11 years now), and Model X has been around since 2015 (8 years now), and while they removed the faux grill on S and did give them both new dashes last year, they've largely gone unchanged in that time span.  That certainly has something to do with it in addition to some of the factors you mentioned.


Only know well one Model S owner, and he traded an early S for a new one late last year.  The new one has larger battery, and is also more energy efficient, increasing EPA rated range to just over 400 miles.  The previous was rated in the 270-mile range.  The new S cost about the same, so adjusted for inflation it was a better deal than the first one according to owner.

 

News reported that with present 7% APR, the average new car payment is $730 per month, and 1 in 6 buyer who finances new car is above $1,000 per month. 

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10 hours ago, silvrsvt said:

This is the article I saw about the Tesla oversupply-take it for what it is worth
 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk-swelling-inventories-unsold-142222021.html

 

Thank you silvrsvt. Oversupply isn't a concern for Tesla, just the opposite actually. Its days supply figure of 16 in Q1 2023 is significantly lower than any incumbent automaker in the U.S. market. For comparison, the industry wide figure in February 2023 for days supply was 56. Ford was >70 and Lincoln >80. February New-Vehicle Inventory Climbed While Sales Grew and Prices Retreated - Cox Automotive Inc. (coxautoinc.com)

 

February-2023-new-inventory-chart.jpeg

 

This quote from the article sums up the situation for Tesla and why some investors are disappointed.

 

it’s important to remember the market judges Tesla’s development differently from that of other incumbent carmakers

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43 minutes ago, rperez817 said:

This quote from the article sums up the situation for Tesla and why some investors are disappointed.

 

It’s also important to remember that Tesla doesn’t pay a dividend to stock holders

so unless the stock price increases, they get nothing.

 

Now that Tesla has turned cash positive, they have no need to raise more cash by selling more stock

and can actually “ignore” current  stock price or any change as it has no bearing on actual operations.

 

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The real issue for Ford is that it still can’t max out production across most of its products 

so we’re still getting a distorted view for any kind of sales trending purpose.

 

So they skip incentives, jack up prices and only sell the models and trim they want, taking

a win from best use of resources. Can’t believe how suppliers are biting OEMs in the butt

by telling them the amounts they can supply.

 

I would feel happier seeing F Series sales above 70,000/mth to ensure quarterly profits stay strong,

everything from there would be gravy. Ford has all these great vehicles, they should be making tons more.

 

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1 hour ago, Rick73 said:

News reported that with present 7% APR, the average new car payment is $730 per month, and 1 in 6 buyer who finances new car is above $1,000 per month. 


If you have good credit and you shop around you can get better than 7%. I just got 5.7% on my flex 2 weeks ago. 

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Context of the report, based on Edmund’s data, was that many buyers were finding new cars out of reach, some settling for used.

 

Regarding Tesla higher costs possibly affecting their sales, the following comparison shows that even the simplest Model 3 is more expensive to own than many conventional ICE options.  While energy costs (electricity versus gasoline) favors the Tesla BEV, overall cost is still higher, primarily due to initial cost.


4A13089B-83E6-46A1-8DAB-F7475226C605.thumb.jpeg.4a76a6c7a35ef813b32f3824e5300a91.jpeg

 

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9 hours ago, Rick73 said:

Context of the report, based on Edmund’s data, was that many buyers were finding new cars out of reach, some settling for used.

 

Regarding Tesla higher costs possibly affecting their sales, the following comparison shows that even the simplest Model 3 is more expensive to own than many conventional ICE options.  While energy costs (electricity versus gasoline) favors the Tesla BEV, overall cost is still higher, primarily due to initial cost.


4A13089B-83E6-46A1-8DAB-F7475226C605.thumb.jpeg.4a76a6c7a35ef813b32f3824e5300a91.jpeg

 

Teslas are considered entry luxury and be compared with entry level BMWs and Mercedes.  Your chart shows the model3 compares favorably.  Personal observations from my area does reflect the shift from entry luxury cars to Tesla.  It will be interesting to see if Tesla can keep that perception alive as cost are reduced or if it becomes mainstream and needs to compete against civics and corollas.  Tesla reduced the price of the model 3 again as the new government incentives were cut in half on it.  It is going to make it very hard for newcomers to break into the segment now that Tesla is well established, has volume and lower costs.  Very similar to Toyota.

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18 hours ago, jpd80 said:

Are those vehicles actually unsold?

This is the first time that I’m hearing that Tesla is building stock vehicles without a customer order.

 

The Tesla store near me has a bunch of units in the parking lot that always seem to be there.  Can't say for sure if they're retail or stock, though.

 

16 hours ago, Rick73 said:


Only know well one Model S owner, and he traded an early S for a new one late last year.  The new one has larger battery, and is also more energy efficient, increasing EPA rated range to just over 400 miles.  The previous was rated in the 270-mile range.  The new S cost about the same, so adjusted for inflation it was a better deal than the first one according to owner.

 

News reported that with present 7% APR, the average new car payment is $730 per month, and 1 in 6 buyer who finances new car is above $1,000 per month. 

 

Oh sure, I know there has been improvements - mostly under the skin.  But that approach will only work for so long before people want something that looks new.  Look at what happened with the Fusion with its' minimal refresh.

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4 hours ago, slemke said:

Teslas are considered entry luxury and be compared with entry level BMWs and Mercedes.  Your chart shows the model3 compares favorably.  Personal observations from my area does reflect the shift from entry luxury cars to Tesla.  It will be interesting to see if Tesla can keep that perception alive as cost are reduced or if it becomes mainstream and needs to compete against civics and corollas.  Tesla reduced the price of the model 3 again as the new government incentives were cut in half on it.  It is going to make it very hard for newcomers to break into the segment now that Tesla is well established, has volume and lower costs.  Very similar to Toyota.


Agree it’s difficult to judge what makes an entry-level Tesla Model 3 a “luxury” car.  It’s no doubt a nice car, but setting aside that it’s electric and it cost more, what exactly makes it luxurious?  Brand image for now?  The one I drove recently got me from one place to another, but I wouldn’t spend more solely because of its luxury or build quality.

 

When a BMW or Mercedes was compared to a Honda or Toyota, it was easy to see tangible differences that affected performance, ride, noise, etc.       As BEV become more popular, I’m not sure Tesla will be able to claim “luxury” status in the traditional way.  If anything, I can see where BEVs could become more of a commodity.

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5 hours ago, Rick73 said:

It’s no doubt a nice car, but setting aside that it’s electric and it cost more, what exactly makes it luxurious?  Brand image for now? 

 

Brand image is one (Tesla is currently the premier U.S. domestic luxury car brand), feature set and overall performance are some others. Base Model 3 Standard Range compares favorably to its competitors in the compact executive car class in those areas (BMW 330i, Audi A4, Mercedes-Benz C300, Genesis G70, Lexus IS, Cadillac CT4, etc). 

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34 minutes ago, jpd80 said:

many are being duped into thinking Tesla is losing heaps of cash but are they?

 

Jim Farley isn't duped. He knows very well that Tesla can apply price cuts like the five announced in the U.S. market in 2023, and still far exceed Ford and other legacy automakers in profitability.

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1 hour ago, rperez817 said:

 

Jim Farley isn't duped. He knows very well that Tesla can apply price cuts like the five announced in the U.S. market in 2023, and still far exceed Ford and other legacy automakers in profitability.

Imagine his frustration with Mach E being “break even” with initial pricing and then see those price reductions from Tesla, sales of Mach E have dried up in China (Ford doesn’t talk about them anymore) and Europe seems interested but not overly so now that Tesla Y is taking the place by storm. The best hope Ford has is EV Explorer there as an  SUV - people who want something different car crossovers.

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11 hours ago, akirby said:

When you raise prices $4k - $8k in 2 years you can afford to cut prices,

 

Just built some EVs online

 

Mach E GT came in at $70k

Polestar 2 Perf. in at $66k

Model Y Perf. in at $63k ($65K with 2k paint option I'd go for)

EV6 GT came in at $63K

 

As a fan of all of these vehicles, and a preference for the Mach E as a Mustang fan, I am not sure I would still choose the Mach E if I am leasing for a few years. I don't think the Model Y has a real-world range advantage but the numbers gives it a performance advantage. Will the Mach E get hardware updates soonish? And then there's some of the other competition.

Edited by Willwll313wll
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There is a 23.5 Mach-e with cost saving improvements and new features is coming soon. 
 

Ford is working diligently to remove costs from all current electric vehicles and gathering a lot of data to make the second and third generations considerable cheaper

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1 hour ago, jasonj80 said:

There is a 23.5 Mach-e with cost saving improvements and new features is coming soon. 
 

Ford is working diligently to remove costs from all current electric vehicles and gathering a lot of data to make the second and third generations considerable cheaper

 

That's good to know!

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14 hours ago, akirby said:

When you raise prices $4k - $8k in 2 years you can afford to cut prices,

 

Incumbent automakers raised prices by that amount or more in the same time period on many of their vehicles (both BEV and non-BEV) but have been reticent to cut prices to the extent Tesla has so far in 2023. And for good reason. Tesla is a generation maybe even 2 generations ahead of the incumbents in terms of its core capabilities of design, engineering, manufacturing, and marketing BEV.

 

The good news for consumers is that Tesla's "price war" is forcing incumbent automakers to speed up implementation of the totally different strategies and approaches that are needed to produce BEV profitably, as in the Ford Mustang Mach-E example that jasonj80 shared.

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2 hours ago, rperez817 said:

 

Incumbent automakers raised prices by that amount or more in the same time period on many of their vehicles (both BEV and non-BEV) but have been reticent to cut prices to the extent Tesla has so far in 2023. And for good reason. Tesla is a generation maybe even 2 generations ahead of the incumbents in terms of its core capabilities of design, engineering, manufacturing, and marketing BEV.

 

The good news for consumers is that Tesla's "price war" is forcing incumbent automakers to speed up implementation of the totally different strategies and approaches that are needed to produce BEV profitably, as in the Ford Mustang Mach-E example that jasonj80 shared.


If Tesla was so far ahead then they wouldn’t have to cut prices.   This is strictly a response to increased competition.

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